Hydrogen in 2025: The Journey through Progress, Pitfalls, and Policy Shifts

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hydrogen

In 2024, hydrogen emerged as a climate-friendly alternative to fuel as well as electricity. Promising projects sparked to life on both the production and consumption fronts. Despite Trump’s pro-oil stance, analysts are optimistic about hydrogen’s future in this new year- 2025.

According to BNEF, clean H2 supply is projected to increase 30X and could reach 16.4 million metric tons annually by 2030. This surge is mostly attributed to supportive policies and a flourishing project pipeline.

As we step into 2025, several crucial moments await the low-carbon, clean hydrogen sector. They could be a mix of challenges and opportunities. Analysts also predict an increase in the fructification of significant projects and financial investment decisions this year.

Wood Mackenzie recently released a report identifying some crucial developments in the hydrogen sector for 2025 that one needs to scrutinize. Let’s study it here.

Blue Hydrogen to Dominate the U.S. Market in 2025

  • In 2025, the U.S. hydrogen market will focus heavily on blue hydrogen, with over 1.5 million tons per annum (Mtpa) of capacity reaching the final investment decision (FID).

This marks a 10X increase compared to green hydrogen. The report revealed that at least three large-scale blue hydrogen projects are expected to mature this year. With this output, the U.S. has all the potential to become the world’s leading blue hydrogen producer.

Green Hydrogen to Face Strong Headwinds in 2025?

Conversely, green hydrogen projects are likely to face major challenges in 2025. FIDs for these projects are expected to fall short of expectations. This could be due to reduced government focus on clean energy under the Trump administration.

Green hydrogen could also face stiff competition for electricity resources from data centers. On top of that, lengthy delays in connecting projects to the grid can slow down the progress.

While some demand will come from companies working toward sustainability goals, short-term growth opportunities are expected to shrink. Many green hydrogen projects, especially those targeting transportation, and heavy industries like steel, and e-fuels, may be delayed or canceled altogether.

BLUE HYDROGEN GREEN HYDROGEN

Nonetheless, it will Shine Through the Storm…

If not in the U.S. green hydrogen will have its niche in emerging economies like South America, the Middle East, India, and China. Eventually, these economies can launch giga-scale projects in 2025. So how can these nations properly green hydrogen progress globally?

Well, these projects leverage cheap solar and wind power and government incentives that reduce costs and ensure financial viability. For instance, India’s Kakinada project utilizes existing ammonia infrastructure and enjoys government subsidies.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s Neom Helios project benefits from state-led support and a 30-year offtake agreement with Air Products. These factors add a bonus point to green hydrogen.

Emergence of Chinese Electrolyzers 

Most importantly regions like Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa will benefit abundantly from low-cost renewable energy and affordable electrolyzers from Chinese manufacturers.

By 2025, China can supply at least one-third of orders outside North America and Europe. Competitive pricing, shorter delivery times, and strong manufacturing capacity give Chinese electrolyzers an edge. Moreover, China is also expanding its domestic manufacturing capacity and is most likely to add over 10 GW of capacity this year. This will further strengthen their global presence, especially in areas with fewer trade barriers.

However, entering Europe and North America is more challenging. Trade restrictions and regulatory hurdles, such as the European Union’s 25% content limit for Chinese-made electrolyzers, limit their opportunities. To overcome these challenges, some Chinese companies are localizing production through partnerships and technology licensing.

green hydrogen

Green Hydrogen’s Stance in Europe and North America

While blue hydrogen dominates the U.S., green hydrogen is making headway in Europe and North America. The European Commission (EC) also launched a nearly €2 billion hydrogen auction as part of its broader €4.6 billion initiative to accelerate net-zero technologies. This marked a significant step in the EU’s push for renewable hydrogen.

In Germany, HydrogenPro partnered with J. Heinr. Kramer Group to develop green hydrogen projects ranging from 5 MW to 50 MW. They aim to advance green hydrogen projects in Germany, Austria, and the Benelux region. These projects will power industries and the grid, and fuel hydrogen-powered vehicles.

On October 30, 2024, Avina Clean Hydrogen announced its major green hydrogen project in Vernon, California, near the Port of Long Beach. The facility with a capacity of 4 metric tons of compressed green hydrogen daily can decarbonize heavy-duty transport and advance California’s clean energy goals.

Uncontracted Hydrogen Supply to Persist in 2025

The Woodmack report emphasized another interesting scenario that would prevail in this year’s hydrogen economy. It says uncontracted low-carbon hydrogen capacity will remain a challenge due to difficulties in securing offtake agreements. This means out of the 5.5 Mtpa of low-carbon hydrogen projects that have reached FID, ~ 2.5 million tons of hydrogen remains without contracts.

This issue is most common in the U.S. blue hydrogen sector and, to a lesser extent, outside China, where securing agreements is tougher. The Chinese green hydrogen market lacks transparency in offtake contracts. So, the real value of uncontracted investment is not clear.

Moving on European policies like the Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), make it a key market for blue hydrogen and its derivatives. So, developers may keep production uncontracted to benefit from higher prices in Europe.

Overall, uncontracted hydrogen volumes may shrink for some projects, but overall, they are expected to grow as more blue hydrogen projects reach FID this year.
hydrogen market

The U.S. Treasury Simplifies Clean Hydrogen Tax Credit Rules

The U.S. Department of the Treasury and IRS released final rules for the section 45V Clean Hydrogen Production Tax Credit under the Inflation Reduction Act on January 3. These rules encourage clean hydrogen production from some nuclear power plants that are nearing retirement. The hydrogen will be used in fuel cells.

US Hydrogen market

The new rules included some important changes and added flexibility for the clean hydrogen industry. These updates will propel projects ahead and ensure they comply with the emissions requirement laws to qualify for clean hydrogen.

Notably, they will also provide much-needed clarity, investment stability, and adaptability, especially for participants in the Department of Energy’s Regional Clean Hydrogen Hubs program.

The final rules clarify how hydrogen producers, using electricity from diverse sources, natural gas with carbon capture, renewable natural gas (RNG), or coal mine methane, can qualify for the tax credit.

Nuclear for Clean Hydrogen

As the fresh rules enable at-risk nuclear to produce clean hydrogen, it will subsequently boost nuclear energy demand in sectors like AI. S&P Global reported market optimism surged following the announcement, and energy companies saw significant gains.

For instance, Constellation Energy’s shares rose by 3.8%, closing at $251.74, while Vistra experienced a 7% jump, reaching $160.33. NextEra Energy and its renewable energy unit also saw increases of 1.2% and 3%, respectively. Plug Power recorded a 2.6% rise, closing at $2.39. These positive market movements were witnessed after Constellation announced a $1 billion contract to supply nuclear energy to 13 government agencies.

John Podesta, Senior Advisor to President Biden for International Climate Policy mentioned something very significant that sums up all for the U.S. green hydrogen future. He said,

“The extensive revisions we’ve made in this final rule provide the certainty that hydrogen producers need to keep their projects moving forward and make the United States a global leader in truly green hydrogen.”

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Trump’s Tariffs and Climate Rollbacks: How 2025 is Shaking Copper Markets and Clean Energy Goals

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Trump's Tariffs and Climate Rollbacks: How 2025 is Shaking Copper Markets and Clean Energy Goals

Donald Trump’s return to the White House in 2025 is already shaking up industries across the globe, particularly those reliant on stable trade and environmental policies. From sweeping tariffs to anticipated rollbacks of key climate initiatives, the impact of these changes could redefine global markets and state-led sustainability efforts.

Among the sectors feeling the weight of this uncertainty are copper markets and renewable energy initiatives.

Copper: A Market Under Pressure

Copper, the backbone of global infrastructure and clean energy transitions, faces unprecedented challenges. Trump’s proposed tariffs, which could range from 10% to 100%, are poised to disrupt the market’s fundamentals. 

Targeting major U.S. trading partners, including China, Canada, and Mexico, these tariffs are expected to inflate prices and dampen demand.

David Davidson, an analyst at Paradigm Capital, warns that these trade policies could lead to a tit-for-tat scenario, specifically noting:

“If we get a tit-for-tat trade war, then kiss global economic growth expectation goodbye.”

A strong U.S. dollar and sustained high interest rates, as the Federal Reserve grapples with likely inflation, could further compound these issues by making copper imports prohibitively expensive.

China, which consumes nearly half of the world’s copper, is especially critical in this equation. Economic slowdowns or retaliatory tariffs from China could reverberate across global markets, suppressing demand for the metal. 

The country’s faltering property market, which has historically driven copper demand, remains a weak point. Analysts speculate that a substantial stimulus package from China might offset some of these challenges, but its timing and scale remain uncertain.

Tight Supply Chains

Adding to the turmoil is a looming deficit in copper concentrate supplies. S&P Global Commodity Insights projects a supply shortfall of 540,467 metric tons in 2025. This is exacerbated by delays in reopening First Quantum Minerals’ Cobre Panama mine.

The mine’s closure in 2023 following a dispute with Panama has left the market scrambling for alternatives, and analysts doubt it will resume operations before 2026.

Despite a projected surplus in refined copper, the concentrate deficit could severely impact smelters, particularly in Asia, which rely on steady supplies. Prices will reflect this tension, with the London Metal Exchange forecasting an average copper price of $9,734 per metric ton in 2025.

copper price 2025

Last year, there was also a recorded deficit but with an anticipated electric vehicle (EV) boom, where copper is a key component, the demand for this metal will grow. BHP projects a 70% surge in global copper demand, exceeding 50 million tonnes annually by 2050. The traded metal is anticipated to grow at an average annual rate of 2%.

copper demand projection 2050 BHP

Blue States vs. Trump: The Battle for Climate Progress

While federal climate policy may see significant rollbacks under Trump, blue states (which lean Democratic) are gearing up for a fight. State leaders in progressive regions are determined to protect climate initiatives, even as federal support wanes. 

Governors from the U.S. Climate Alliance and America Is All In coalition have pledged to relentlessly advance sustainability efforts.

California, a leader in climate action, faces the dual challenge of maintaining its ambitious emissions reduction targets while fending off federal interference. 

A key battleground is the state’s waiver to set stricter vehicle emissions standards than those enforced federally. This waiver, which allows other states to adopt California’s rules, is critical to the state’s goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. 

states adopted California emission standards

Revoking this waiver, as Trump is widely expected to attempt, could disrupt these efforts and ignite legal battles. Noel Perry, founder of the California think tank Next 10, emphasized the importance of the waiver. Perry noted that:

“California will fight tooth and nail if the Trump administration is going to again attempt to take that waiver away.” 

Fiscal Challenges and Climate Goals

Complicating matters further are fiscal challenges in many blue states. California, New York, and Maryland, among others, face significant budget deficits that threaten to undermine their climate initiatives. 

California has already reduced its climate-related spending by 21% for the next 8 years, though voters approved a $10 billion climate bond in November 2024 to fund drought mitigation and renewable energy infrastructure.

In New York, a $13.9 billion budget gap between 2025 and 2029 is putting pressure on the state’s ambitious climate goals. The state’s 2019 Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act mandates 70% renewable energy by 2030 and full decarbonization by 2050. However, achieving these targets amid fiscal constraints and uncertain federal policies will be a steep uphill battle.

2025: A Year of High Stakes for Sustainability and Global Markets

Despite the obstacles, blue states are not backing down. Washington Governor Jay Inslee, speaking at the COP29 climate summit, declared that state-led initiatives remain unstoppable. He remarked that Trump won’t be able to stop any of the states from moving forward, citing Washington’s cap-and-invest program and low-carbon fuel standards as examples.

California has allocated $25 million for litigation costs to defend its climate policies. Legal battles could intensify as the Trump administration targets state-level initiatives. 

Trump’s trade and climate policies have far-reaching implications. For the copper market, they risk destabilizing supply chains and inflating prices, which could hinder the global clean energy transition. 

Meanwhile, his administration’s deregulatory agenda poses challenges to state-led climate progress, even as blue states demonstrate resilience and determination.

With 2025 shaping up as a year of uncertainty, the stakes are higher than ever. Stakeholders, especially industries and governments, must balance economic growth with the urgent need to address climate change. How these competing priorities unfold will define the next chapter in the global effort to achieve sustainability.

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Constellation Secures Groundbreaking $1 Billion Clean Nuclear Energy Deal with Federal Government

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constellation

Constellation, the largest producer of clean, emissions-free energy in the United States, has secured over $1 billion in contracts from the U.S. General Services Administration (GSA). Under this agreement, Constellation will deliver clean energy to more than 13 federal agencies and implement energy efficiency measures in five GSA-owned facilities in the National Capital Region.

Joe Dominguez, Constellation President and CEO revealed some crucial aspects of this deal. He said, 

“For many decades, Constellation’s nuclear fleet has provided carbon-free, reliable, American-made energy to millions of families and institutions. Frustratingly, however, nuclear energy was excluded from many corporate and government sustainable energy procurements. Not anymore. This agreement is another powerful example of how things have changed. Under this agreement, the United States government joins Microsoft and other entities to support continued investment in reliable nuclear energy that will allow Constellation to relicense and extend the lives of these critical assets. In combination with the Crane restart announced previously, Constellation and its partners will add approximately 1,100 MWs of 24/7 clean energy by 2028, enough energy to power over one million homes.”  

Constellation’s New Energy Upgrades to Cut Emissions at Federal Facilities

The company announced that it has signed a 10-year, $840 million contract which is the largest in GSA’s history. Starting in 2025, it will supply over 1 million megawatt hours of power annually. Notably, part of this power will come from the company’s planned investments to enhance plant output.

Additionally, the company also secured a $172 million Energy Savings Performance Contract to improve energy efficiency at five GSA-owned facilities in the National Capital Region. It includes the Elijah Barrett Prettyman U.S. Courthouse, the William B. Bryant Annex, the Orville Wright Federal Building, and the Wilbur Wright Federal Building, all located in Washington, DC. The fifth building, the Harvey W. Wiley Federal Building is in College Park, Maryland.

GSA Administrator Robin Carnahan shared more details on this agreement,

“This historic procurement locks in a cost-competitive, reliable supply of nuclear energy over a 10-year period, accelerating progress toward a carbon-free energy future while protecting taxpayers against future price hikes. We’re demonstrating how the federal government can join major corporate clean energy buyers in spurring new nuclear energy capacity and ensuring a reliable, affordable supply of clean energy for everyone.”

U.S. Nuclear Generation and Generating CapacityUS nuclear generation

A Sustainable Transformation

Under the contract, Constellation will implement various energy-saving measures to enhance efficiency and lower emissions. These upgrades will include installing advanced LED lighting systems, improving building weatherization, and replacing or enhancing windows. Additionally, new and upgraded heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems will be installed alongside modernized building control equipment.

These facilities are crucial for federal operations and their energy upgrades are vital for a sustainable infrastructure. Most importantly all these upgrades substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions and cost for federal buildings.

Construction will start this month and will last about 42 months. During this time, Constellation will manage installations, upgrades, and maintenance. Moreover, it will train GSA staff to ensure they can run and maintain the new systems. This training is vital for long-term energy savings and efficiency.

Constellation’s Nuclear Vision: Shaping the U.S. Clean Energy Future

In the U.S., nuclear energy provides about 20% of the country’s total power and 50% of its carbon-free energy. It offers steady, clean power, which keeps the electric grid stable and reliable even in extreme weather. This, in turn, boosts American energy security and independence. Moreover, it creates good jobs that strengthen communities.

Constellation Energy is America’s largest nuclear energy producer. In 2023, its nuclear plants achieved an impressive 94.4% capacity factor. Together with its hydro, wind, and solar facilities, the company powers 16 million homes, supplying 10% of the nation’s clean energy.

On December 17, 2024, the company launched a pilot project in Washington D.C. to allow consumers to power their homes with 100% clean nuclear energy. The program offers nuclear power at 11.99 cents per kilowatt-hour, which is cheaper than the current supply rate from the local utility. By choosing carbon-free nuclear energy, D.C. residents can cut their energy bills while conserving the environment.

Net Zero Commitment

Each year, Constellation’s clean energy operations prevent 125 million metric tons of carbon emissions. That’s the same as removing 29 million gas-powered cars from the road.

All these initiatives point toward a carbon-free future and reducing Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions. The company’s climate goals are further explained in the image below:            

constellation climate goals

Source: Constellation

We can conclude by saying that Constellation’s commitment to advancing clean nuclear energy for federal buildings marks a new era for the U.S. energy landscape.

More Power per Punch: Nuclear Energy Outshines Fossil Fuels

carbon credits

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Morgan Stanley, Citi and Bank of America Exit Net-Zero Alliance: What’s Next for Sustainable Finance?

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Morgan Stanley, Citi and Bank of America Exit Net-Zero Alliance: What's Next for Sustainable Finance?

Several major U.S. banks, including Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, and Bank of America, have recently announced their departure from the Net-Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA). This global coalition was established to help financial institutions align their lending and investment portfolios with the Paris Agreement’s climate goals.

However, this wave of exits highlights the growing tension between climate commitments and political pressures, particularly in the U.S.

A Retreat from Climate Commitments: U.S. Banks’ Bold Move

The NZBA, launched in 2021 under the umbrella of the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ), committed its members to achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

The alliance required banks to set interim targets, reduce emissions associated with their portfolios, and report progress transparently. It also encouraged funding for projects like renewable energy and reforestation to offset emissions.

By 2023, the NZBA had gained significant traction, with over 100 member banks collectively representing 40% of global banking assets. This made it a key player in mobilizing financial resources for the transition to a low-carbon economy. Yet, political and market dynamics have increasingly complicated these ambitions.

Political Backlash and Legal Challenges

In the U.S., political opposition has intensified against net-zero initiatives. Republican-led states have accused financial institutions of prioritizing climate goals over economic interests. 

In November, Texas and 10 other states sued major asset managers like BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street, alleging antitrust violations tied to climate activism. These lawsuits argued that such actions limited fossil fuel financing, reduced coal production, and raised energy prices.

This political climate has pressured banks to distance themselves from alliances perceived as restrictive or politically charged. Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, and Bank of America’s decisions to exit NZBA follow earlier withdrawals by Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and others, citing similar concerns.

So, What Now After the Exit?

Despite leaving the NZBA, these banks remain committed to their sustainability goals. Morgan Stanley reiterated its pledge to report on interim financed emissions targets for 2030, emphasizing its continued support for clients transitioning to greener practices. 

The bank has committed to achieving net-zero financed emissions by 2050. To support this long-term objective, Morgan Stanley has set the following 2030 targets for major emitting sectors:

Morgan Stanley net zero targets

The firm plans to collaborate with clients to develop and implement strategies that facilitate the transition to a low-carbon economy. Additionally, Morgan Stanley emphasizes the importance of transparent reporting and has committed to disclosing its progress toward these goals regularly.

Citigroup also noted its progress on independent net-zero goals, while Bank of America stated it would continue working with clients to meet their sustainability needs.

Citigroup has pledged to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, including both its operations and the emissions associated with its financing activities. As part of this commitment, Citi aims to decarbonize its own operations by 2030. 

The bank has developed a Net Zero Framework that includes:

  • calculating baseline financed emissions for carbon-intensive sectors,
  • identifying appropriate climate transition pathways,
  • setting emissions reduction targets for 2030 and beyond, and
  • implementing strategies through client engagement. 

Citibank 2030 emissions targets

Similarly, Bank of America remains committed to achieving net-zero GHG emissions across its financing activities, operations, and supply chain before 2050. To support this goal, the bank has set interim targets for 2030, focusing on reducing emissions in key sectors such as auto manufacturing, energy, and power generation.

Bank of America net zero targets

  • Their strategy includes mobilizing $1 trillion by 2030 through their Environmental Business Initiative to accelerate the transition to a low-carbon, sustainable economy.

Additionally, Bank of America achieved carbon neutrality in its operations in 2019 and continues to work towards making its operations more sustainable.

These approaches reflect a strategic balancing act among major bankers. On the one hand, these institutions seek to maintain credibility as leaders in sustainable finance. On the other, they aim to avoid political and financial risks that could arise from their association with climate-focused alliances.

Broader Challenges Facing NZBA

The challenges confronting NZBA extend beyond political opposition. Questions about the availability and quality of carbon credits, critical for offsetting emissions, have raised concerns about the alliance’s effectiveness. Ensuring that credits meet stringent environmental and social standards is essential to maintaining the credibility of net-zero commitments.

Operational complexities also pose difficulties. For instance, NZBA requires members to harmonize emissions reporting and reduction efforts across diverse portfolios and jurisdictions. This has led to administrative bottlenecks and slowed progress in achieving interim goals.

Another challenge is the perception of double regulation. Flights between the UK and the European Economic Area (EEA), for example, face overlapping compliance requirements under both CORSIA and local emissions trading schemes. 

Similarly, banks must navigate overlapping climate regulations across multiple frameworks, further complicating their compliance efforts.

GFANZ’s Evolving Role

The Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ), which oversees NZBA and other sectoral alliances, has adapted its strategy in response to these challenges. 

GFANZ announced it would no longer require financial institutions to join specific alliances to benefit from its guidance. Instead, it will focus on addressing critical gaps in data, investment, and public policy to accelerate the transition to net zero. The Alliance stated in a statement that it has:

“achieved its initial goal of developing the building blocks of a financial system capable of financing the transition to net zero.” 

This shift aims to unlock over $5 trillion annually to modernize energy systems and decarbonize economies globally. By prioritizing actionable investments and public-private partnerships, GFANZ hopes to sustain momentum despite recent defections.

But What Does it Mean for Sustainable Finance?

The exits from NZBA signal broader uncertainties in the sustainable finance sector. While financial institutions recognize the importance of addressing climate risks, they face competing pressures from stakeholders with differing priorities. 

Investors demand accountability on climate goals, yet political forces challenge these commitments, particularly when viewed as detrimental to traditional industries like fossil fuels.

Moreover, the scaling back of collective initiatives like NZBA could slow progress in mobilizing the trillions of dollars needed for the low-carbon transition. Without unified frameworks, banks may pursue fragmented approaches, reducing the overall effectiveness of global climate action.

Opportunities And the Road Ahead for Net Zero Banking

Despite these setbacks, opportunities remain for financial institutions to lead in sustainable finance. By leveraging innovative tools like sustainable bonds and green loans, banks can support decarbonization while mitigating political and financial risks. 

Moreover, investing in renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, and emerging carbon capture technologies offers pathways to align profitability with climate goals.

The exits of major U.S. banks from NZBA highlight the delicate interplay between climate ambition and political realities. While these developments may slow collective action, they also underscore the need for adaptable strategies to sustain progress. By addressing challenges proactively, the financial sector can continue to play a pivotal role in the global transition to a sustainable future.

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Philippines Aims for Nickel Dominance with New Mining Reforms

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Philippines Aims for Nickel Dominance with New Mining Reforms

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is set to revitalize the country’s mining sector, particularly its nickel industry, through a proposed reform to the Philippine Mining Act of 1995. The legislation aims to streamline taxation, incorporate environmental considerations, and foster greater stakeholder involvement. These moves could position the country as a leader in the global nickel market.

Revamping Mining Laws to Boost Nickel Industry

The reform bill introduces a four-tier, margin-based royalty system, ranging from 1.5% to 5%, based on mine location. Additionally, environmental factors will play a central role in the approval process for new mines. This approach replaces the current system, which varies based on specific mining agreements and applies royalties only to mines in designated mineral reservations. 

Moreover, the proposed reforms will include essential aspects of project approvals that weren’t there before, per S&P Global analyst Paul Manalo. For instance, local community and local government involvement and biodiversity.

The bill is currently awaiting Senate approval. Yet, it has received strong endorsements from government officials and industry stakeholders. Michael Toledo, chairman of the Chamber of Mines of the Philippines, expressed optimism: 

“The president himself mentioned to me that he is fully aware of mining’s importance to our country’s socioeconomic growth and of the issues that hinder the industry from attaining its full potential.”

Sustainability and Innovation at the Core of New Policies

President Marcos has been a vocal advocate for responsible and sustainable mining practices since taking office in mid-2022. During the 2023 Presidential Mineral Industry Environmental Award ceremony, he emphasized the importance of clean and efficient extraction processes that restore mined lands, noting that:

“We must also foster innovation by driving research into new methods of mineral processing—methods that reduce waste and energy consumption.” 

Marcos reiterated his commitment to refining mining policies to align with these priorities. The Philippines is the second-largest producer of mined nickel in 2023 as seen in the chart. 

2023 Nickel Production by Country

It maintained its position last year, boasting 13.4 million metric tons of reserves and resources. The country produced 387,000 metric tons of nickel last year, trailing only Indonesia, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. 

Philippine share of global deposits for nickel and others reserves and resources

However, the government and industry leaders are eager to boost production further and expand the value chain by processing nickel domestically.

Toledo highlighted the need for collaboration with international partners, such as South Korea, Japan, and the European Union, to access alternative smelting technologies. He further noted that mineral extraction and processing are the foundation of the clean energy supply chain. Currently, there isn’t enough ore being mined to meet the demands of facilities still in development.

Digital Transformation in Mining Permits

The Philippine government is taking steps to improve regulatory processes in the nickel and other metals industry, too. In October 2024, a digital application system for mining permits was launched in three regions, with plans for nationwide expansion. This initiative aims to reduce permitting times to two years, significantly faster than the current timeline.

Additionally, the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) is drafting an executive order to clarify conflicting interpretations of existing mining royalty laws. In the first quarter of 2024, the Philippines approved 785 mining-related permits, including the following:

  • mineral production sharing agreements, 
  • financial or technical assistance agreements, and 
  • exploration permits. 

Despite these approvals, 1,509 applications remain under review.

Prices and Prospects for the Nickel Market

Globally, nickel prices experienced significant volatility in late 2024. It was driven by macroeconomic and political developments following Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential election victory.

The LME three-month nickel price fell to a 4-year low, influenced by various concerns like Trump’s economic policies and rising LME inventories. Investor sentiment was further impacted by China’s fiscal stimulus package, which failed to meet expectations.

Although prices temporarily rose after Trump’s victory, they quickly declined as market concerns about higher tariffs on Chinese imports and prolonged high interest rates intensified. By late November, nickel prices rebounded due to Indonesia’s tighter mining policies and a 50-fold surge in nickel ore imports.

Amid all these, an emerging nickel player is making a huge wave in the United States – Alaska Energy Metals Corporation (AEMC). The company is advancing U.S. nickel independence. Its flagship Nikolai project in Alaska boasts substantial resources of nickel, copper, cobalt, and platinum group metals critical for renewable energy and electric vehicles (EVs).

The Canadian nickel junior prioritizes sustainability and critical mineral supply, reducing U.S. reliance on imports.

Yet, the price volatility highlights the market’s sensitivity to global economic and geopolitical events. However, despite the price challenges in 2024, the Philippine Chamber of Mines remains optimistic about nickel’s long-term prospects.

  • Global nickel production is estimated to grow to more than 4 million metric tonnes in 2030.

global nickel production forecast

Demand for the metal, driven by the global energy transition, is expected to remain robust. Nickel is a key component in batteries for EVs and renewable energy storage, making it indispensable for achieving net-zero emissions targets.

One factor of uncertainty is the geopolitical impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to office. Trump has threatened to disrupt existing trade relationships, potentially affecting global metals trade flows.

On this note, Toledo said that while Trump’s re-election could slow the push for net zero, it won’t stop it entirely. With rich nickel reserves and strategic reforms on the horizon, the Philippines is well-positioned to strengthen its role in the global mining landscape.

The proposed legislation’s emphasis on sustainability, innovation, and efficiency could unlock new opportunities, attract international investments, and elevate the country’s status as a key supplier in the clean energy transition. 

If the bill passes, the nickel mining industry could become a cornerstone of the Philippines’ economic growth in the years ahead.

Disclosure: Owners, members, directors, and employees of carboncredits.com have/may have stock or option positions in any of the companies mentioned: AEMC.

Carboncredits.com receives compensation for this publication and has a business relationship with any company whose stock(s) is/are mentioned in this article.

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2025 Uranium Outlook: Will this Critical Commodity Endure its Golden Glow?

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uranium outlook

Top research agencies and industrialists are expecting a steady uranium production in 2025. They believe demand will be driven by rising global demand for nuclear energy as a zero-carbon power source.

In 2024, the market saw an activity uptick, with producers reopening mines and planning expansions to meet the needs of nations like the US, Canada, and the EU. Additionally, adoption and investment in small modular reactors significantly increased uranium demand.

So, what’s in store for uranium in 2025? Can supply keep pace with soaring demand, or will it crumble under the pressure? And what’s the price forecast looking like? Let’s study the report to find out the answers…

2024’s Most Significant Uranium Deals

The demand for nuclear energy has risen leaps and bounds as countries seek low-carbon power to meet their energy demands. Electrification, big data centers, and artificial intelligence (AI) are fueling the push for more reliable and clean energy sources.

uranium production

We have seen many retired power plants being reactivated, and new nuclear construction projects are happening worldwide. This is because, in this new dawn, governments and companies are prioritizing nuclear power as the pillar of energy transition. And this scenario directly connects with the global uranium supply chain.

Significantly, the global uranium market is responding to this increased demand for nuclear energy. Uranium mining stocks surged in 2024 after top tech companies like Meta, Google, Microsoft, and Oracle, announced their entry into nuclear to satiate the energy demand of their data centers. This further shows demand for uranium is going to rise.

One of the most notable deals of last year was Paladin Energy’s acquisition of Canadian company Fission Uranium for CA$1.14 billion. However, this deal has been delayed as the Canadian government raised national security concerns.

Apart from this, several other uranium deals progressed smoothly:

  • Uranium Energy Corp. resumed operations at Willow Creek in Wyoming, marking a key milestone in the company’s production efforts.
  • Paladin Energy Ltd. successfully restarted its Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia, achieving commercial production.
  • Boss Energy began its first drum of uranium produced at its Honeymoon project in Australia in April 2024.
  • IsoEnergy’s acquisition of Anfield Energy expanded its uranium resources significantly. The company’s measured and indicated uranium resources increased to 17 million pounds, with inferred resources now at 10.6 million pounds. This positions IsoEnergy as a potential key player in the U.S. uranium market.

More Power per Punch: Nuclear Energy Outshines Fossil Fuels

carbon credits

Global Rise in Uranium Activity

Russia’s state-owned Rosatom has been offloading its stakes in Kazakhstan’s uranium mines, with Chinese companies stepping in as key buyers. Notable deals include selling 49.979% of Rosatom’s share in the Zarechnoye mine and transferring a 30% stake in the Khorasan-U joint venture to Chinese firms. These moves reflect a shift toward regional and China’s emergence in the uranium market.

Moving on, in Canada, Cameco Corp. has ambitious plans to increase annual output at its McArthur River mine from 18 million to 25 million pounds, alongside extending the operational life of its Cigar Lake mine. Recently, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission has also approved Urenco USA’s request to amend its license, allowing for uranium enrichment levels of up to 10% at its New Mexico facility.

France has injected €300m ($330m) into uranium major Orano to revamp the country’s uranium industry. Additionally, Brazil is partnering with mining firms to revive uranium production which is stagnant since Indústrias Nucleares do Brasil SA began operating its sole mine in 1982.

Thus, globally, several countries and companies are stepping up initiatives to expand uranium production.

Uranium Supply and Demand Estimates (2008-2040E)uranium mining

Source: Sprott (UxC and Cameco Corp. Data as of 9/30/2024)

Tax and Trade Tensions: Can Uranium Rise Above the Challenges?

S&P Global has highlighted several challenges for uranium production ranging from timeline to geopolitical tensions, tax policies, and technical challenges faced by some uranium mining giants. We have explained these challenges below:  

To begin with the U.S., Trump’s statement about imposing a 25% tariff on all products from Mexico and Canada has given rise to some serious concerns. In 2023 Canada supplied 27% of uranium to U.S. nuclear plants, making it the largest supplier.

However, the U.S. faces challenges in boosting domestic production. According to the US Energy Information Administration, the U.S. purchased 40.5 million pounds of U3O8 in 2022.

Industry experts predict that utilities will push to ensure uranium imports from Canada remain unaffected by potential tariffs, as Canada is a critical and reliable partner.

Geopolitical tensions have further complicated the uranium trade. In May, the U.S. banned imports of Russian uranium, which accounted for 11.8% of its 2022 uranium supply. In response, Russia restricted enriched uranium exports to the U.S. which escalated trade tensions.

Even leading uranium producers faced substantial setbacks. Kazakhstan’s NAC Kazatomprom, the world’s largest producer, reduced its 2025 output target due to difficulties in securing sulfuric acid, a key material for extraction. Similarly, Orano suspended mining activities at its Somair project as it faced financial strains and permit issues.

Uranium’s Future: Predictions for 2025

Uranium prices had a rollercoaster year in 2024. S&P Global reported that the Platts-assessed spot price of U3O8 peaked at $106.75 per pound in February.

In November 2024, Uranium spot price retraced to $77.08, according to the Sprott Uranium Report. Despite the dip, prices remain higher compared to historical levels, with the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust helping to stabilize around $80.

Image: Uranium Miners vs. Spot Uranium (2014-2024)

uranium priceSource: Sprott (Bloomberg and TradeTech LLC. Data from 9/30/2014 to 9/30/2024)

Looking ahead, several factors are driving optimism for uranium’s 2025 future. A persistent supply crunch, growing focus on nuclear energy, global energy policies, and geopolitical shifts will drive demand in the future.

  • While short-term volatility may persist, experts predict uranium prices will rebound to $90–$100 per pound by mid-2025.

However, significant investments in new mines, conversion plants, and enrichment facilities will be needed to ramp up uranium production. Moreover, overcoming the challenges we have explained before would also play a significant role in uranium’s bright future. 

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Equinor’s $3B Financing Deal for Empire Wind 1 Project: A Turning Point for U.S. Offshore Wind?

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Equinor

Equinor announced that its Empire Wind 1 offshore wind project in the United States has secured a financing package exceeding $3 billion. A financial close was reached in December 2024 that bolstered the company’s renewable energy initiative. Empire Wind 1 will provide clean energy to 500,000 homes in New York after being fully operational in 2027.

Jens Økland, acting executive vice president for Renewables in Equinor noted,

“This is an important milestone for Equinor, in line with our plan to enhance value and reduce exposure in the Empire Wind 1 project. As we now enter full execution mode, we continue our efforts to increase robustness and value-creation in the project.” 

Equinor Powers Up New York’s Green Future

Equinor further revealed that the total capital investment for Empire Wind 1 is $5 billion, inclusive of fees related to the South Brooklyn Marine Terminal (SBMT). The investments rely on future tax credits (ITCs) to strengthen financial viability. Construction has already begun on the 80,000-acre project that is located 15-30 miles southeast of Long Island.

Moving on, the company finalized the project’s investment decision earlier in 2024 and has planned to farm down its stake in Empire Wind 1 to a new partner. This strategy aims to enhance project value while minimizing risk exposure.

Additionally, Equinor executed a 25-year Purchase and Sale Agreement (PSA) with the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) in June 2024. Under this agreement, power will be supplied at a strike price of $155 per megawatt-hour to ensure stable revenue flow for the project.

Job Creation and Economic Impact

Empire Wind 1 will significantly boost local employment and infrastructure. The redevelopment of the South Brooklyn Marine Terminal as a state-of-the-art offshore wind hub will support over 1,000 union jobs during the construction phase.

On completion, the terminal will serve as the project’s operations and maintenance hub. It will also house the onshore substation connecting Empire Wind 1 to the New York City grid. This arrangement will make Empire Wind 1 the first offshore wind project to integrate directly into the city’s power network.

Molly Morris, senior vice president for Renewables in Equinor Americas said,

“Today’s financial close maintains our momentum toward bringing a significant source of power to the grid. Empire Wind 1 will strengthen US energy security, build economic growth and fuel a new American supply chain. Our redevelopment of the South Brooklyn Marine Terminal is already putting more than 1,000 people to work. Equinor is proud to play a part in advancing domestic energy solutions safely, efficiently, and for the long term.”  

Strong Financial Backing

The financing package for Empire Wind 1 reflects strong lender confidence in the project’s viability. Furthermore, leading financial institutions showed keen interest that helped in achieving competitive terms.

The press release also mentioned that the final group of lenders included some of the most experienced players in the renewable energy sector, as well as several of Equinor’s long-standing banking partners.

Empire Wind Supporting New York’s Renewable Energy Goals

New York State has set ambitious renewable energy targets, and Equinor’s offshore wind projects are playing a pivotal role here. Empire Wind is being developed in two phases: Empire Wind 1 and Empire Wind 2. While Empire Wind 1 has a contracted capacity of 810 MW, Empire Wind 2 has the potential to generate 1,260 MW. Together, the two projects are expected to supply clean energy to more than one million homes.

Empire Wind 2 is currently being re-evaluated for future solicitations. Meanwhile, Empire Wind 1’s first power delivery is anticipated in the mid-2020s which will further advance New York’s transition to renewable energy.

History of Empire Wind

  • 2017: Equinor acquired the Empire Wind lease area after the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management’s auction in December 2016.
  • 2020: BP acquired a 50% stake in Equinor’s Empire Wind and Beacon Wind assets for $1.1 billion.
  • 2022: Equinor signed an agreement to transform South Brooklyn Marine Terminal (SBMT) into a premier offshore wind hub.
  • April 2024: Equinor assumed full ownership of Empire Wind projects, while BP took over the Beacon Wind assets, through a cash-neutral transaction.
  • June 2024: Equinor secured the PSA with New York State for a 25-year power supply agreement at $155/MWh.

Equinor Empire Wind

Source: Equinor: Empire Wind

South Brooklyn Marine Terminal: A Game-Changer for Offshore Wind

The South Brooklyn Marine Terminal is set to become the largest dedicated offshore wind port facility in the U.S. This redevelopment underscores Equinor’s commitment to fostering local economic growth and advancing renewable energy infrastructure.

The terminal will handle staging, pre-assembly, and long-term maintenance operations for Empire Wind 1. This will certainly solidify its support for New York’s clean energy transformation goals.

Future Prospects for the U.S. Offshore Wind Energy 

NYSERDA President and CEO Doreen M. Harris noted in the earlier press release,

“Major renewable energy infrastructure projects such as Empire Wind 1 are a crucial component in reaching toward New York’s climate goals. NYSERDA applauds Equinor for its ongoing commitment to investing in New York’s green economy, including the redevelopment of South Brooklyn Marine Terminal, and helping to stand-up New York’s offshore wind industry one significant milestone at a time.”  

Thus, Equinor’s investment in Empire Wind aligns with the U.S. offshore wind industry’s growing momentum. The project’s integration into the New York City grid highlights its importance in meeting urban energy demands sustainably. By harnessing strong wind resources off Long Island’s coast, Empire Wind 1 is taking a huge step to decarbonize the energy sector.

u.s. offshore windSource: National Renewable Energy Laboratory Offshore Wind Market Report

With a reliable financing backup and proper construction plans, Empire Wind 1 is all set to deliver renewable energy to New York. Equinor is hopeful that the project’s success could lead by example for future offshore wind initiatives across the U.S.

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Meta and WRI Unveiled AI-Powered Global Tree Canopy Map

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Meta and WRI Unveiled AI-Powered Global Tree Canopy Map

Meta, the World Resources Institute (WRI), and Land & Carbon Lab have introduced a game-changing tool for environmental monitoring: the first-ever global map of tree canopy height at a 1-meter resolution.

This cutting-edge AI-powered map can detect individual trees worldwide, addressing longstanding gaps in the forest carbon credit market. It is also a leap forward in environmental science, offering unprecedented insights into tree distribution, canopy height, and forest health.

Unparalleled Precision: 50 Million Sq. Km Mapped at 1-Meter Resolution

The innovative map leverages artificial intelligence to analyze more than a trillion pixels from 18 million satellite images. The result is a highly accurate global dataset with a mean absolute error of just 2.8 meters. Such precision is critical for monitoring and verification purposes, especially in areas where accurate data has historically been challenging to obtain. 

According to Meta, the model establishes a global baseline for tree canopy height, enabling improved understanding and management of forest ecosystems. 

The dataset reveals that approximately one-third of Earth’s landmass—about 50 million square kilometers—has a canopy height above 1 meter. By providing such granular data, this tool offers invaluable insights into the state of global forests, facilitating more targeted and effective conservation efforts.

A notable feature of the initiative is its commitment to open access. The data and models are freely available on platforms such as AWS, Google Earth Engine, and GitHub. Thus, it is accessible to researchers, policymakers, and businesses worldwide. This approach encourages innovation across various fields, from carbon credit verification to environmental conservation.

Meta emphasized the significance of democratizing AI technology, stating:

“Democratizing access to artificial intelligence can be an important tool in unlocking finance for and increasing transparency in mitigating and adapting to climate change.”

Land & Carbon Lab, convened by WRI and the Bezos Earth Fund, is a leading organization dedicated to monitoring and analyzing global land and carbon dynamics. Their Global Tree Canopy Height dataset provides high-resolution, globally consistent measurements of tree heights, offering critical insights into forest structure and carbon storage.

The company delivers accurate and up-to-date information by leveraging advanced satellite imagery and machine learning techniques. Their work enhances our understanding of Earth’s ecosystems and informs strategies to protect and restore vital natural resources.

Laconic and Planet Labs made a similar effort. They partnered for a monitoring system that aims to improve the accuracy of forest carbon projects.

Revolutionizing Forest Carbon Markets

One of the map’s most significant applications is its potential to transform carbon markets. 

Forests play a critical role in carbon sequestration, but accurately monitoring and verifying forest carbon credits has been a persistent challenge. High-resolution data provided by this map enhances the ability to track tree growth, particularly in sparse or small-scale forests.

Providing detailed data on tree distribution and canopy height helps identify areas that require immediate attention or are best suited for reforestation. This level of detail is particularly valuable for managing degraded lands, where precision is crucial for effective restoration.

This improved tracking capability ensures greater transparency and accountability in carbon markets. Meta highlighted this point, noting that: 

“forest-based carbon removal and the use of technology to better monitor, report, and verify carbon sequestration are essential components of Meta’s carbon removal strategy.”

By addressing these challenges, the map strengthens the integrity of carbon markets and supports global efforts to combat climate change. It also facilitates the creation of actionable strategies for carbon removal and forest restoration, ensuring that investments in these areas yield measurable results.

Meta has been investing heavily in carbon removal initiatives, including nature-based carbon projects. Carbon removal is a key part of its strategy to reduce carbon emissions.

carbon removal projects backed by Meta

Advanced AI at Work

The technological backbone of the map is an AI model called DiNOv2, which employs Self-Supervised Learning (SSL) to process vast amounts of unlabeled satellite imagery. SSL enables the model to learn patterns and features in data without requiring manual labeling, making it highly scalable and robust.

DiNOv2’s capabilities extend beyond canopy height mapping. It can also support applications like tree detection and segmentation, providing even more tools for researchers and conservationists. 

Moreover, the open-access nature of the model enables stakeholders from diverse fields to leverage the dataset for various applications, from scientific research to practical conservation initiatives.

By leveraging this advanced AI technology, Meta and its partners have created a tool that is not only highly accurate but also adaptable to various environmental challenges.

You can explore the tool via Google Earth Engine here.

A Transformative Step for Carbon Market Integrity

Carbon markets are increasingly recognized as a vital tool for addressing climate change. However, their success depends on accurate monitoring and verification of carbon sequestration efforts. 

The market has been under intense scrutiny because of various nature-based carbon removal projects suspected and accused of dubious impact. This resulted in decreasing trust and confidence in the market. 

The high-resolution tree canopy map addresses this need by providing reliable data that enhances transparency and accountability. By enabling precise monitoring of tree growth and forest health, the map helps verify that carbon removal projects are delivering on their promises. This, in turn, builds trust among market players and encourages greater investment in forest-based carbon removal initiatives.

Meta, WRI, and Land & Carbon Lab have not only created a powerful tool but also set an example of how technology, collaboration, and accessibility can drive meaningful change in addressing the world’s most pressing environmental challenges.

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