Alaska Energy Metals Expands Higher-Grade Mineralization and Unveils Promising Targets at Eureka Deposit

Alaska Energy Metals Expands Higher-Grade Mineralization and Unveils Promising Targets at Eureka Deposit

Alaska Energy Metals Corporation (AEMC) continues to make significant progress at its flagship Nikolai Project in central Alaska. The company has announced exciting results from its 2024 drilling program, which extended the higher-grade core zone by 600 meters to the southeast and revealed coarse-grained magmatic sulfides—a new target for exploration.

These developments further strengthen AEMC Eureka Deposit’s position as a potential major source of critical minerals essential for clean energy and national security applications.

Its flagship Nikolai Project is a large-scale, polymetallic deposit with significant potential to support America’s clean energy transition. The nickel company also holds the Angliers-Belleterre project in Quebec, targeting high-grade nickel-copper sulfide deposits and potential white hydrogen production.

AEMC Nikolai Project – Property Location Map

AEMC Nikolai project location map

Striking Gold—And Nickel: AEMC Expands Its High-Grade Core Zone

AEMC’s 2024 resource expansion drilling program consisted of four diamond drill holes, totaling 1,597.6 meters, per the company’s press release. Results from two of these holes—EZ-24-009 and EZ-24-010—were recently released, delivering highly encouraging outcomes.

AEMC Eureka 2024 drill completed

AEMC drill hole location map

Here are the summaries of the results for each drill:

Hole EZ-24-009

  • Intersected 308.2 meters of polymetallic mineralization at 0.30% NiEq (nickel equivalent), including a 67.3-meter higher-grade core grading 0.39% NiEq.
  • Discovered a 5.3-meter zone of coarse-grained magmatic sulfides grading 0.63% NiEq, with a peak interval of 0.9 meters at 0.95% NiEq.
  • Extended the high-grade core zone by 600 meters to the southeast, increasing its total strike length to 2 kilometers.
  • Provided a new exploration target with sulfide mineralization near a gabbroic dike.

Hole EZ-24-010

  • Intersected 320.8 meters of polymetallic mineralization at 0.31% NiEq, including a 72.5-meter higher-grade core grading 0.39% NiEq.
  • Confirmed mineralization extends further southeast, showing similar grades and thickness as EZ-24-009.
  • Highlighted consistent mineralization, enhancing the deposit’s bulk-tonnage potential.
  • Detected a downhole electromagnetic anomaly below the hole, warranting further investigation.

These results extended the strike length of the high-grade core zone to around 2 kilometers, significantly beyond the limits of the current Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE). This discovery is expected to drive a substantial increase in the AEMC’s indicated resource.

A New Target Emerges: Coarse-Grained Sulfides

The most exciting discovery from this campaign is the identification of coarse-grained magmatic sulfides in EZ-24-009. Located near a gabbroic dike, these sulfides suggest a potential remobilized or coarser mineralization component within the Eureka Zone.

AEMC Coarse-grained magmatic sulfides

Alaska Energy Metals Chief Geologist Gabe Graf noted, 

“Drilling results continue to show the continuity and homogeneity of the Eureka Zone. With results from the remaining two drill holes anticipated soon, we can begin calculating an updated Mineral Resource Estimate. For the first time, coarse-grained magmatic sulfides were intersected and are being considered as an additional future exploration target.”

The sulfides could hold key insights into the geologic processes shaping the deposit, offering opportunities to uncover higher-grade zones and expand the resource base further.

The Expanding Promise of the Eureka Deposit

The results from EZ-24-009 and EZ-24-010 confirm the homogeneity of the Eureka Zone’s mineralization, highlighting its bulk-tonnage potential. The consistent grades and thick mineralized intersections reflect a robust system that is both predictable and scalable.

The remaining two drill holes (EZ-24-011 and EZ-24-012) are expected to provide additional data, potentially unlocking further extensions of the core zone. These findings will be incorporated into an updated MRE, which is already anticipated to reflect significant resource growth.

Strategic Importance of the Nikolai Project

The Nikolai Project is strategically located in Interior Alaska, benefiting from proximity to existing transportation and power infrastructure. This positions it as a highly accessible source of critical minerals, reducing logistical challenges often faced by remote projects.

The Eureka Deposit is particularly valuable due to its rich polymetallic profile, containing:

  • Nickel, cobalt, chromium, platinum, and palladium: Designated critical minerals essential for clean energy technologies and electric vehicle batteries.
  • Copper: A critical material for renewable energy systems and electrification.
  • Iron and gold: Additional contributors to the deposit’s economic viability.

Remarkably, four of these materials are classified as Defense Production Act Title III materials, emphasizing their importance to U.S. national security.

Sustainable Mining Meets Strategic Importance: AEMC’s Vision for North America

AEMC prioritizes sustainability and adheres to stringent environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices. This commitment is reflected in its exploration and resource development processes, which focus on minimizing environmental impact while delivering value to stakeholders.

The company’s quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) protocols ensure the integrity of its data. Drill core samples are carefully processed and analyzed at SGS Laboratories, with rigorous oversight to prevent contamination and ensure accuracy.

For its next steps, AEMC’s immediate focus includes finalizing assays for the remaining drill holes and updating the MRE to reflect the expanded strike length and newly discovered sulfide mineralization. Additionally, the coarse-grained sulfides will undergo detailed evaluation as a priority exploration target.

These efforts align with AEMC’s strategy to advance the Nikolai Project as a major domestic source of strategic energy-related metals for North America.

All in all, Alaska Energy Metals Corporation is rapidly advancing its flagship project, demonstrating a combination of resource expansion, innovative discoveries, and sustainable practices. The extension of the higher-grade core zone and the identification of coarse-grained sulfides mark significant milestones for AEMC. It further strengthens the company’s position as a key player in the critical minerals space.

 


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Xpansiv Powers Carbon Removals Trading with CBL Spot Exchange

Xpansiv

Xpansiv, one of the most reputed companies in market infrastructure and environmental commodities announced the launching of innovative tools that will enhance trading and management of carbon removal credits. Xpansiv users can now trade these credits as a distinct market segment on the CBL Spot Exchange, which is the world’s largest spot exchange platform for carbon credits.

The company highlighted,

“The new capabilities streamline full-lifecycle workflows for removal credits, which are treated separately under various existing and proposed voluntary and compliance programs.”

Xpansiv: Powering the Global Energy Transition

Xpansiv provides critical infrastructure to drive the energy transition. It operates the largest spot exchange for environmental commodities, including carbon credits and renewable energy certificates, and leads in registry services for energy and environmental markets.

Some significant achievements include:

  • Managing North America’s top platform for buying and selling solar renewable energy credits.
  • Offering transaction and advisory services in global carbon and renewable energy markets through its Carbon Financial Services and Evolution Markets units.

Significantly, Xpansiv strengthens its global reputation in climate solutions with the trust and support of prominent investors. To name them, Blackstone Group, S&P Global Ventures, Aware Super, BP Ventures, Commonwealth Bank, the Australian Clean Energy Finance Corporation, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Aramco Ventures are backing Xpansiv.

Now coming to the most unique feature of its portfolio, Xpansiv Connect™. It is a highly sophisticated tool that simplifies environmental asset management with a “multi-registry and multi-asset portfolio” system. The press release revealed that Xpansiv has upgraded its features which are explained below. 

The Latest Upgrade: Xpansiv Connect™ Portfolio Management System

To make trading more user-friendly, the company introduced the modified version- Xpansiv Connect™ Portfolio Management System. This platform will allow environmental commodity market participants to manage multi-registry carbon removal positions in one unified view. Notably, it can handle one billion asset transfers annually and offer seamless workflow integration for the markets.

Xpansiv Connect™ Portfolio Management System

Xpansiv Connect

Expanding Access to Tagged Credits

Xpansiv’s infrastructure supports both nature-based and technological removal credits. The new features make it easier for participants to trade tagged removal credits from registries like ACR, Climate Action Reserve, and Verra on CBL. The platform recently added removal credits from Puro.earth and plans to integrate more registries.

Russell Karas, Senior Vice President, Xpansiv, said

“We developed these new trading and portfolio management segmentation capabilities in response to customer interest in removals as a distinct market segment. The registry tagging capabilities we are using for removals is of growing importance to enable participants to identify and track credit eligibilities corresponding to a proliferating range of voluntary and compliance programs and meta-standards, including the ICVCM Core Carbon Principles, CORSIA, and Article 6. We are pleased to streamline this complicated tracking challenge for participants across our seamless market infrastructure.”

With all these advancements, Xpansiv is making it easier for businesses to engage with carbon removal markets. This way they can also meet their sustainability goals and contribute to a lower-carbon future.

Anew Climate Credits Now Available for Trading

Among the newly available credits are 75,000 nature-based removal credits from Anew Climate, a leading U.S. project developer. The company also has offices in Canada, Spain, and Hungary.

These credits originate from three projects focused on forest restoration and management. Subsequently, each project contributes to significant carbon removal while promoting biodiversity and forest health.

The Bayfield County Forest Carbon Project spans 159,656 acres in Wisconsin and is the first forest carbon project on county lands. It reduces timber harvests and adopts sustainable practices, prioritizing carbon storage. Notably, this approach has inspired other countries to launch similar projects.

Secondly, the Iron County Forestry Project covers 156,517 acres of hardwood forest in Wisconsin. Carbon payments support reduced timber harvesting, fund land acquisition, and protect habitats for species like the Connecticut Warbler.

Lastly, the Kanawha River Forestry Project manages 80,724 acres in West Virginia. Aurora Sustainable Lands owns this high-biodiversity area near the Kanawha River. It preserves forests to store carbon and improves watershed health.

These forest restoration projects demonstrate Anew’s efforts to reduce or offset carbon footprints, restore ecosystems, and deliver economic and climate benefits across private and public sectors.

Thus, it’s evident how efficiently Xpansiv is driving the global energy transition with its innovative infrastructure and transparency. Last but not least, with Xpansiv leading the way, the future of environmental markets and climate solutions holds great promise.

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BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street in Legal Soup: Texas Coalition Claims Coal Market Manipulation

Texas Legal Blackrock

Texas, alongside ten other Republican-led states, filed a high-profile lawsuit against BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street last week. The lawsuit, lodged in federal court in Tyler, Texas, accused the asset management giants of conspiring to restrict coal production and spike electricity prices, allegedly violating antitrust laws. This also marks the culmination of a years-long investigation focused on scrutinizing environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices within financial markets.

The plaintiffs claim these firms, leveraging their collective influence in the coal industry pressurized them to curtail coal supply and cut carbon emissions by over 50% by 2030. This became the crux of the case, with states arguing that the actions led to inflated utility bills for consumers.

So, here’s the case at a glance

  • Plaintiffs: Texas and ten Republican-led states
  • Defendants: BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street
  • Allegations: Antitrust violations, market manipulation to reduce coal production, and increased electricity prices
  • Relief Sought: Civil penalties and restrictions on shareholder voting practices
  • Court: U.S. District Court, Eastern District of Texas

Texas Attorney General’s Stance

Media reports revealed that Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton taking charge of this case, labeled the defendants as an “investment cartel” that manipulated the coal market under the guise of advancing green energy objectives.

He accused the defendants of,

Promoting an illegal weaponization of the financial industry in service of a destructive, politicized ‘environmental’ agenda.”

The Battle Against ESG Policies Just Intensified…

This lawsuit represents the collective effort of Republican states to challenge the ESG initiatives, which they argue prioritize political agendas over economic value.

The coalition of states includes Alabama, Arkansas, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, West Virginia, and Wyoming. They are seeking billions in damages and a court order prohibiting the firms from using their investments to influence coal company policies.

Here are the allegations in detail.

States Slam $26 Trillion Influence in Coal Industry

The states came down heavily on BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street and further alleged the defendants exploiting their combined $26 trillion in managed assets to dominate the coal industry since 2021.

Reuters revealed that the complaint accused asset managers of holding significant stakes in nine coal companies. It includes combined respective stakes of 34.2% and 30.4% in Arch Resources and Peabody Energy which are the largest publicly traded U.S. coal producers.

The states said in the complaint.

“Let Markets Decide,” States Demand

The coalition criticized the asset managers’ influence, stating,

“Competitive markets — not the dictates of far-flung asset managers — should determine the price Americans pay for electricity.”

Additionally, they criticized the defendants for joining the Net Zero Asset Managers Initiative, which claims its members follow all antitrust laws. They also targeted BlackRock and State Street for participating in Climate Action 100+.

Vanguard’s Exit Doesn’t Erase Past Actions

Although Vanguard exited the Net Zero group in 2022 and BlackRock and State Street left Climate Action 100+ earlier this year, Paxton asserts their past actions continue to threaten the coal industry.

In addition, the lawsuit accuses BlackRock of misleading investors by using non-ESG funds to advance its climate agenda while claiming those investments were focused on shareholder returns.

BlackRock and State Street Dismiss Accusations

BlackRock dismissed the allegations, calling the lawsuit “baseless” and asserting that the claims contradict Texas’ pro-business ethos. It further added that this action discourages investment in companies critical to consumers’ energy needs.

State Street similarly denied the charges, emphasizing its commitment to enhancing shareholder value. Vanguard did not immediately respond to the lawsuit.

Who Wins, Who Loses?

The current lawsuit demands civil penalties for alleged violations of federal antitrust and Texas consumer protection laws. It also seeks to block the defendants from using their stakes in coal companies to vote on shareholder resolutions or take other actions that might constrain coal production. However, the case is still on and the verdict is awaiting.

Overall, this lawsuit highlights the growing backlash against ESG initiatives. Its impact could reshape corporate governance and environmental policies in the U.S. Energy markets.

From this report, we can strongly perceive the tense divide between climate advocates and critics of ESG policies. While Republicans argue that financial institutions undermine energy markets and consumer costs, climate proponents believe assessing environmental risks is vital for appropriate investment decisions.

Regardless of the outcome, the case could have significant consequences for the future of energy management and regulation. This applies even to the top asset managers, like BlackRock, whose role in shaping energy policies will be closely scrutinized.

Source: BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street sued by Republican states over climate push | Reuters

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Stellantis Secures $7.5B Loan from U.S. Gov’t for EV Battery Plants: A Push For Its Net Zero Drive

Stellantis Secures $7.5B Loan from U.S. Gov't for EV Battery Plants: A Boost For Its Net Zero Push

Stellantis and Samsung SDI’s joint venture, StarPlus Energy LLC, has received a U.S. government commitment of up to $7.54 billion to build two electric vehicle (EV) battery plants in Kokomo, Indiana. If finalized, the project will significantly expand North America’s EV battery manufacturing capacity while creating thousands of jobs.

Massive EV Battery Plant to Power North America

Stellantis‘ proposed plants will produce battery cells and modules for North American EVs. Their combined capacity will support around 670,000 vehicles annually. This joint initiative aligns with efforts to bolster domestic production and reduce reliance on foreign suppliers, especially from adversarial nations like China.

In addition to the manufacturing facilities, the project could generate at least 2,800 direct jobs and hundreds more through a nearby supplier park.

Loan Details and Conditions

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) commitment includes $6.85 billion in principal and $688 million in interest. However, finalization is subject to several conditions, including:

  • Developing a plan for meaningful engagement with community and labor leaders to ensure good-paying jobs.
  • Meeting technical, legal, environmental, and financial requirements.

The DOE emphasized the importance of continuing support for projects like this, despite potential policy shifts under the incoming administration. President-elect Donald Trump has previously criticized such initiatives, labeling them part of the “green new scam.”

It remains uncertain, however, if the loan will be finalized before Trump’s inauguration on January 20. The DOE refrained from confirming a timeline but stressed the economic and environmental benefits of funding such projects.

A Broader Context in EV Manufacturing

The loan commitment follows a similar $6.6 billion loan granted to Rivian Automotive for a stalled EV factory in Georgia. These investments reflect the Biden administration’s push to strengthen domestic EV supply chains.

The announcement comes amid a leadership shakeup at Stellantis. CEO Carlos Tavares resigned abruptly, with the company announcing an interim executive committee led by Chairman John Elkann until a permanent successor is appointed.

If the loan is finalized, the Kokomo project will mark a significant milestone in North America’s transition to clean energy. It will provide a vital boost to EV infrastructure while fostering job creation and reducing reliance on foreign suppliers.

For Stellantis, it means a highly significant boost for its Net Zero ambitions. 

A Roadmap to Net Zero: Stellantis’ Electrification Revolution

Stellantis is taking bold steps to lead the global transition toward a sustainable future through its Dare Forward 2030 plan, a pathway aligned with science-based recommendations to combat climate change. Recognizing transportation’s heavy reliance on fossil fuels—responsible for over 90% of the sector’s energy needs and more than 7 gigatonnes of CO₂ emissions in 2020—the automaker aims to make transformative changes.

The EV giant aims to achieve the following goals and targets:

  • 50% CO₂ Reduction by 2030: Benchmarking against 2021 levels, Stellantis is targeting a 50% cut in greenhouse gas emissions.
  • Net Zero by 2038: Committed to achieving carbon neutrality, with less than 10% of emissions offset through compensation.

These goals align with the Paris Agreement’s mission to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

A Holistic, ‘Daring for Zero’ Approach

To achieve carbon net zero by 2038, Stellantis has adopted a threefold strategy addressing emissions across its value chain.

Stellantis net zero 2038 strategy

For vehicles, it has set an aggressive electrification roadmap, integrating advanced technologies and batteries, offering innovative mobility solutions, and emphasizing circular economy practices to reduce waste. 

Stellantis is aggressively advancing its electrification strategy, aiming for a 100% battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales mix in Europe and a 50% BEV sales mix for passenger cars and light-duty trucks in the U.S. by the end of 2030. 

Across its 14 iconic brands, Stellantis plans to introduce 75 BEV models by 2030, targeting sales of 5 million units annually by then. Starting in 2025, all new luxury and premium segment launches will exclusively feature BEVs, with this approach extending to all segments in Europe by 2026.

Stellantis Roll Out of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs)

Stellantis BEV roll out 2030

To achieve these ambitious goals, Stellantis is investing €30 billion by 2025 in electrification and software development. This will ensure its EV portfolio aligns with evolving market demands and solidifies its leadership in sustainable mobility.

In the supply chain, the company is optimizing logistics and collaborating with suppliers to ensure sustainability. Lastly, in industrial operations and sites, Stellantis employs responsible energy management and innovative real estate solutions to minimize its carbon footprint.

This holistic strategy tackles Scopes 1, 2, and 3 emissions, including direct emissions from its operations, indirect emissions from purchased energy, and emissions from upstream and downstream activities. in doing so, Stellantis focuses on real reductions, minimizing reliance on carbon offsets

However, achieving these goals depends on external enablers like a decarbonized energy supply and supportive public policies for BEV infrastructure, including charging stations and purchasing incentives.

Stellantis’ initiatives, part of its Daring for Zero series, highlight its commitment to achieving sustainability milestones. The automaker is driving innovation and collaboration across the industry, reaffirming its crucial role in tackling climate change. And the committed loan from the U.S. government can rev up the automaker’s drive toward net zero. 

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ArcelorMittal Delays €1.7B Net Zero Plan: Is The EU Policy to Blame?

ArcelorMittal, the world’s second-largest steelmaker, announced a delay in its planned green steel investments in the European Union (EU), citing challenges posed by regulatory uncertainty. This decision underscores the tension between net zero commitments and economic pressures that ArcelorMittal and others face in the industry.

Major Decarbonization Plans in Limbo

The steelmaking industry is responsible for around 7% of global carbon emissions. This substantial carbon footprint prompts steelmakers to look for ways to cut their emissions.

In January, ArcelorMittal secured €850 million ($885 million) in subsidies from the French government to support its €1.7 billion decarbonization program at its Dunkirk and Fos-sur-Mer sites in France. A key component of this plan involves replacing 2 of 3 blast furnaces in Dunkirk with green hydrogen-powered facilities.

Despite the substantial funding, the company has yet to finalize these investments.  ArcelorMittal stated in an email:

“We are operating in a difficult market, and there are a number of policy uncertainties that are impacting the industry… We need an effective carbon border adjustment mechanism, as well as more robust trade defense measures, to strengthen the business case.”

The steelmaker emphasized the need for robust EU policies to support such initiatives.

EU Policy Uncertainty Hampers Progress

A significant factor in the delay is the lack of clarity regarding the European Commission’s Steel and Metals Action Plan. It is expected to address emissions reduction targets and competitive challenges. 

Industry analysts, like Philip Gibbs from KeyBanc, note that ArcelorMittal has been clear about its stance: it will not commit to substantial decarbonization investments unless supportive EU policies are in place.

Eurofer, the European Steel Association, echoed similar concerns. It highlighted that steelmakers face mounting pressure to cut emissions while maintaining profitability in a fiercely competitive global market. 

The production of green steel hinges on emerging technologies like green hydrogen, which is produced by splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen using renewable energy sources. It is considered a cleaner alternative with green electrical energy used to producing green steel as shown below. 

green steel production
Image from Pangea-si

However, green hydrogen remains expensive and technologically nascent, adding to the challenges faced by steelmakers.

ArcelorMittal is not alone in grappling with these issues. German steel giant Thyssenkrupp announced in October that it is reviewing its €3 billion plan for green steel production, further highlighting the economic and policy hurdles in achieving emissions targets.

How the EU’s Green Deal and CBAM Impact the Steel Industry’s Transition

European steelmakers, among the largest global CO2 emitters, are under intense scrutiny to decarbonize. At the same time, they face fierce competition, particularly from China, where lower production costs allow for cheaper steel exports.

The European Commission’s Green New Deal, introduced in 2020, aimed to replace coal-fired blast furnaces with hydrogen-powered facilities. The initiative included a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), intended to level the playing field by imposing tariffs on imported goods with high carbon footprints.

However, delays in its implementation and uncertainty over its effectiveness have added to the hesitation among companies like ArcelorMittal. The company pointed out critical weaknesses in the CBAM. 

They have seen green steelmakers remain uncompetitive in the face of imports from coal-fired steelmakers in China. These flaws have allowed cheaper, high-emission imports to undercut European green steel producers, undermining efforts to make decarbonized steel cost-competitive.

ArcelorMittal’s Commitment to Net Zero: A Path Forward or a Stalled Dream?

Despite these challenges, ArcelorMittal reaffirmed its dedication to sustainability. The company had initially outlined plans to achieve net zero by 2050 through innovative technologies, including hydrogen-powered furnaces.

CEO Aditya Mittal remarked on the company’s commitment to reaching net zero emissions, saying that:

“ArcelorMittal remains absolutely committed to decarbonization. It is the right thing to do, both for the company and the planet. I remain confident that we can still achieve our net-zero by 2050 target, but the shape of how we will achieve this could differ from what was previously announced.”

ArcelorMittal Net Zero Roadmap

ArcelorMittal net zero or decarbonization roadmap
Image from company website

The world’s leading steel producer has outlined 5 key levers to achieve its net-zero emissions target by 2050, which include:

  1. Steelmaking Transformation: Using innovative technologies such as Smart Carbon and direct reduced iron (DRI) processes to significantly reduce carbon emissions.
  2. Energy Transformation: Shifting to clean energy like green hydrogen, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), and circular carbon solutions from sustainable sources.
  3. Increased Scrap Usage: Enhancing recycling methods to integrate more scrap metal into steel production.
  4. Sourcing Clean Electricity: Transitioning to renewable energy sources to meet operational energy needs and partnering with clean energy providers to ensure sustainable electricity supply. 
  5. Offsetting Residual Emissions: Purchasing high-quality carbon offsets or developing carbon credit projects that rely on its direct intervention.

The steel giant’s decarbonization strategy unveiled in 2020, relied on favorable policies, technological advancements, and supportive market conditions to offset the high capital and operating costs of transitioning from coal to green hydrogen-powered steel production. However, significant challenges put a break in its decarbonization efforts. 

The slow progress of green hydrogen adoption and inadequate policy support have made large-scale investments risky. This forced the company to reconsider its roadmap.

The Path Forward

While ArcelorMittal remains committed to decarbonization, its delays reflect a broader challenge for the steel industry: achieving ambitious climate goals without undermining competitiveness. Clearer EU policies will be critical to unlocking investments in green steel technologies.

For now, the industry’s ability to transition to greener operations hangs in the balance. Companies like ArcelorMittal are waiting for the right combination of market conditions and policy support to move forward toward their net zero goal.

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Experts Say China’s Emissions Peak Is Near: How EVs and Renewables are Playing a Big Part

Experts Say China’s Emissions Peak Is Near: How EVs and Renewables are Playing a Big Part

China, the world’s largest carbon emitter, is making notable strides in its fight against climate change by stabilizing carbon emissions. Driven by the rapid adoption of renewable energy and electric vehicles (EVs), experts are cautiously optimistic about the nation’s progress toward its climate goals. 

However, challenges remain as Beijing balances economic growth with its ambitions for net zero.

Electric Vehicles Surge as China Leads Global Market

China’s green transition is advancing faster than expected. A new report from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea) highlights a remarkable shift in optimism. 

  • In a survey of 44 experts, 44% believe China’s carbon emissions have already peaked or will peak by 2025, a sharp increase from just 15% in 2022.

The country’s renewable energy and EV sectors have seen explosive growth. For three consecutive months in 2024, more than half of all new cars sold in China were electric. 

According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, China continues to lead the global EV market, with October PEV (plug-in electric vehicle) sales reaching a record 1.2 million units. From July to October, PEVs in China consistently outperformed internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, achieving an average of 53% market share. 

plug in EV sales, China leads

Pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) remain dominant, though their share has fallen to 58% in 2024, down from 66% in 2023, as range-extended electric vehicles (REEVs) gain traction. REEVs, featuring smaller batteries and a small ICE for recharging, highlight evolving consumer preferences.

China-made BEVs are also expanding in Europe despite a 27% EU tariff on Chinese imports. Negotiations between the EU and China are underway to address tariffs and stabilize EV pricing, underscoring China’s growing influence on the global EV landscape.

This surge underscores China’s commitment to transitioning away from fossil fuels. Meanwhile, hydropower generation, which had previously declined due to droughts, has recovered, contributing to a slight drop in emissions since early 2024.

However, emissions remain “stabilized” in Q3 2024 rather than in a structural decline as shown by Carbon Brief’s analysis below. This is despite increased coal power usage, largely offset by a surge in renewable energy.

China carbon emissions Q3 2024

Heavily polluting industries, such as construction, continue to pose significant challenges. The sector’s slowdown has helped offset emissions in the short term, but long-term solutions will require a comprehensive overhaul of China’s industrial landscape.

China falling emissions from oil and construction

Global Leadership Amid Challenges: China at COP29

China’s leadership on climate action has become even more critical amid shifting global dynamics. The United States, under Donald Trump’s re-election, has retreated from climate leadership, with plans to exit the Paris Agreement once again. 

At COP29 in Baku, China’s delegation, led by climate envoy Liu Zhenmin, took center stage as other nations sought its support for ambitious climate action.

During a side event at COP29, Liu Zhenmin received applause for reaffirming the country’s commitment to global climate efforts, calling climate change “a pressing global challenge that demands a collective response.” The event also marked the continuation of a methane-tracking agreement initially forged under Joe Biden’s administration.

China’s growing role on the international stage is encouraging. However, domestic challenges could undermine its ability to meet global expectations.

Economic Growth Versus Decarbonization

China’s dual targets of peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and achieving net zero by 2060 are ambitious but achievable with the right strategies. Yet, meeting these goals will require navigating significant economic and policy challenges.

The world’s largest carbon polluter pledged to reduce its carbon intensity—the amount of carbon emitted per unit of GDP—by 18% between 2020 and 2025.

However, current trends suggest it may fall short. High-tech manufacturing, a key driver of economic growth, is more energy-intensive than sectors like household consumption and services.

Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at Crea, points out that even if China’s GDP grows by 5% in 2025, the country would need an unprecedented 9.7% reduction in emissions to meet its carbon intensity target. She particularly noted that: 

“This scenario would make meeting global climate targets all but impossible.”

Such a dramatic shift will require accelerated deployment of renewable energy and a strategic reorientation of economic development, Myllyvirta added.

Renewables Boom: A Climate Balancing Act

Despite these challenges, China’s renewable energy boom offers hope. The country has been a global leader in solar and wind energy installations, and its investments in clean energy infrastructure are unparalleled. 

In 2023, China installed more solar capacity than the rest of the world combined.

More notably, clean energy sources accounted for a record 44% of China’s electricity generation in May 2024. Solar power saw the largest increase, with a 78% year-on-year rise, followed by significant recoveries in hydropower and modest gains in wind energy.

China renewable growth, wind and solar Q3 2024

This growth outpaced the rise in electricity demand, leading to a decline in coal’s share to a historic low of 53%. These trends contributed to a 3.6% reduction in CO2 emissions from China’s power sector and kept overall emissions flat.

This emissions stability reflects China’s energy transition and highlights the potential for renewables to curb emissions growth as economic activity increases.

Electric vehicle adoption has also been transformative. Government subsidies and supportive policies have made China the world’s largest EV market. This trend, coupled with advancements in battery technology and charging infrastructure, positions the nation as a leader in sustainable transportation.

However, policy clarity remains crucial. Experts emphasize the need for a detailed roadmap outlining how China will meet its 2030 and 2060 climate targets. A revised emissions trajectory under the Paris Agreement, expected by February 2025, will be a critical indicator of Beijing’s climate ambitions.

China’s success or failure in reducing emissions will have far-reaching implications for global climate targets. As the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, the country’s actions are pivotal in limiting global warming to 1.5°C. With COP29 setting the stage for deeper international collaboration, China’s next moves will be crucial in shaping the path toward a more sustainable future.

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Cobalt at Crossroads: How Will Oversupply, Price Drops, and LFP Boom Impact Its Future?

cobalt

According to industry experts, the cobalt market is currently under pressure due to an oversupply and slow demand. The heat is palpable more on cobalt sulfate prices, which are gradually declining, indicating weaker demand. One reason is China’s passenger electric vehicle (PEV) sector, which strongly prefers lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries that do not rely on cobalt.

However, as revealed by S&P Global Commodity Insights, the Platts-assessed European cobalt price has held steady at approximately $11.00/lb since October 11, but with suppressed trading activity.

Let’s see what the report reveals further about the current and future cobalt market.

China’s Move to LFP Batteries Weakens Cobalt Market

The report revolved around the cobalt market in China. It highlighted that China’s cobalt metal price stabilized after hitting a low in late September. From September 25 to November 21, the price rose by 5.6% and increased another 2.0% month to November 21, despite some fluctuations.

This recovery was driven by stronger feedstock costs, as cobalt hydroxide prices remained more stable compared to refined cobalt products.

China Cobalt

However, according to Shanghai Metals Market, margins for cobalt sulfate production using imported cobalt hydroxide turned negative in Q3 2023. This strained margin significantly impacted China’s cobalt sulfate output.

  • From January to October 2023, combined production dropped by 28.1% compared to the same period last year.

The reason for the decline remains the same- a slowdown in the PEV sector. The other significant reason is automakers shifting to lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries as they are cost-effective and avoid using critical minerals like cobalt and nickel. This transition has reduced the demand for cobalt-containing batteries in China.

Additionally, S&P Global noted, that in October 2024, cobalt-containing batteries accounted for only 20.6% of vehicle installations in China. This figure is a steep drop from nearly 50% in 2021.

Unlocking Cobalt’s Role in Battery Chemistry

Cobalt remains a vital component in many battery chemistries, offering stability and safety benefits. In 2023, demand for cobalt-containing chemistries grew by 15% year-over-year (y/y) to approximately 500 GWh, accounting for 55% of total battery demand.

While this represents a decline from 63% in 2022, cobalt chemistries are expected to maintain a significant market share in the medium to long term as demand continues to grow. Let’s study how experts explain this evolving landscape…

A Shifting Landscape

Cobalt Institute’s latest report revealed that demand for cobalt was mainly driven by high and mid-nickel chemistries driving this growth in 2023. High-nickel chemistries saw a 32% increase, while mid-nickel grew by 15%. Meanwhile, low-nickel and lithium cobalt oxide (LCO) chemistries experienced declines of 11% and 13% y/y, respectively.

It further highlighted,

  • Demand for cobalt-containing chemistries rose 15% y/y in 2023, to ~ 500
    GWh. This equated to around 55% of battery demand in 2023, down from 63% in 2022.

High-nickel chemistries also increased their market share to 11%, while low-nickel chemistries fell behind nickel-cobalt aluminum oxide (NCA) chemistries for the first time.

These cobalt-free chemistries now make up 45% of global cathode demand, driven largely by lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries. For the first time, LFP overtook nickel cobalt manganese (NCM) cathodes, claiming a 45% market share compared to NCM’s 43%. While manganese-based chemistries also contributed, their impact was minor.

Beyond batteries, cobalt is needed in aviation, energy storage, and electronics and its recyclability makes it sustainable.

Image: LFP vs. NCM: the share of NCM battery cells declines

cobalt battery

Source: Cobalt Institute report

Pressures Facing Cobalt

Cobalt, despite its critical role in batteries, faces significant challenges in the supply chain related to cost, composition, and sourcing. Cobalt is costly, but falling prices have improved battery cell cost competitiveness.

The report highlighted that in 2023, NCM and LFP chemistries dominated the global lithium-ion battery market, making up 88% of cathode demand. Automakers in North America and Europe preferred NCM batteries for their higher energy density and longer range and they were mainly used in high-performance EVs.

On the other hand, LFP batteries have gained market share globally, particularly in China, where their lower cost and reduced reliance on critical minerals like cobalt make them a popular choice. This also means that although NCM chemistries have high energy density they are globally less widely adopted.

Image: 2023 Cathode active materials (CAM) product mix from the major ex. China CAM suppliers, %cobalt cathode anode mix

Additionally, ethical and environmental concerns regarding cobalt sourcing, particularly from the DRC and Indonesia are extensively scrutinized over its sustainability and responsible extraction practices.

Cobalt Forecast 2024: Price and Production

As cobalt demand continues to face challenges with automakers favoring lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries, cobalt-containing batteries are considerably losing market share. CMOC expects cobalt-containing batteries to eventually make up less than 10% of the total battery mix.

This declining demand is further reflected in price forecasts as rolled out by S&P Global Commodity Insights noted below:

  • Analysts now estimate the cobalt market surplus will widen significantly in 2024, reaching 53,000 metric tons, which is more than 2X of its earlier predictions.
  • The growing surplus has also led to a downward revision of cobalt price estimates, with prices now expected to fall to $12.72/lb by 2028.

Batteries now drive three-quarters of global cobalt demand, making the market highly sensitive to changes in cathode chemistries and technologies. As demand for EVs grows, cobalt’s role remains crucial, but the rise of alternatives like LFP will reshape the landscape.

The EV sector’s trajectory in key regions, including the US, China, and the EU, will play a critical role in shaping cobalt’s future. However, with battery technology shifting rapidly and economic policies uncertain, the path ahead remains unpredictable.

Supply Surge from CMOC, DRC, Australia, and Indonesia

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Australia, and Indonesia are the three major countries that control about 73% of the world’s cobalt reserves. Last year, DRC topped the list, accounting for more than 70% of global production.

cobalt supplySource: Cobalt Institute

S&P Global forecasts that cobalt production is expected to soar in 2024. It will be significantly driven by Indonesia’s high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) projects and surge in output from the DRC. Additionally, China’s CMOC, a major producer, has already surpassed its 2023 full-year cobalt production guidance by 21% within the first nine months.

In H1 2024, the company secured the position of the world’s largest cobalt producer with an impressive output of 54,024 tons, marking a staggering 178.22% year-over-year (YoY) growth. This surge not only reflects the company’s pivotal role in the global cobalt supply chain but also signifies a contribution to meet rising demand for battery-grade cobalt.

Notably, CMOC’s production surge is primarily linked to its copper-focused strategy that resulted in increased cobalt inventories.cmoc cobalt

From this report, we can fairly infer that cobalt can still hold its ground as a key material in high-performance batteries, particularly in Western markets. However, its future will depend on balancing cost, sustainability, and evolving technology trends.

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Trafigura Bets Big, $600M, on Carbon Credits Market Revival

Trafigura Bets Big, $600M, on Carbon Credits Market Revival

Trafigura Group, a global leader in commodities trading, is making a bold bet on the recovery of the carbon credits market. Despite its recent struggles, the company views emerging regulatory frameworks and international agreements as pivotal for mainstreaming carbon credits in emissions accounting. 

With new policies creating clearer pathways for businesses to meet climate targets, Trafigura expects a surge in demand for record growth.

The Carbon Market Makeover: Regulations Reshape Voluntary Credits

The voluntary carbon market (VCM) allows companies and individuals to buy carbon credits to offset emissions voluntarily, rather than as part of regulatory compliance. These credits fund projects that reduce or avoid greenhouse gas emissions, such as renewable energy, reforestation, or community-based initiatives. 

Unlike mandatory carbon markets governed by laws, VCM operates through independent standards and registries, providing flexibility for participants. As the VCM evolves, efforts to enhance quality and credibility are shaping its role in global climate action.

Hannah Hauman, Trafigura’s global head of carbon trading, highlighted the impact of increased regulations in Europe, the US, and Asia. These frameworks are designed to help companies achieve net-zero emissions, reinforcing the importance of a robust carbon credits market. 

At the recent COP29 summit in Baku, negotiators finalized rules under Articles 6.2 and 6.4 of the Paris Agreement, laying the groundwork for a global carbon trading system.

Article 6.4 introduces a UN-backed mechanism with standardized guidelines for carbon credit quality. It offers a more transparent and structured approach. In contrast, Article 6.2 allows countries to set their own criteria for carbon credit exchanges, which some critics fear could weaken the market. 

Danny Cullenward, senior fellow at the Kleinman Center for Energy Policy, warned that Article 6.2 could create an “anything goes” market. This can potentially undermine both Article 6.4 and broader climate efforts.

Industry Challenges and Corporate Retreats

The voluntary carbon market has faced criticism over greenwashing and the issuance of low-quality credits. In 2023, the market’s value dropped by 23% as shown in the graph below. This declining trend started in 2021 when critics began to shake the market. Moreover, key players like HSBC Holdings, Shell Plc, Delta Air Lines, Google, and EasyJet have scaled back their involvement. 

voluntary carbon credit retired and issued 2023

Just recently, HSBC abandoned plans to build a carbon credits trading desk, while Shell began selling off a majority stake in its nature-based credit portfolio.

Despite these challenges, regulatory advancements have led to optimism. Hauman remarked that countries now have a “regulatory line of sight” to guide them through 2030, providing clarity for companies on expectations, investment strategies, and emissions reductions.

According to BloombergNEF’s data, Europe is leading the UN-backed carbon credit investment while Ghana gets the most funding for Article 6 projects.

carbon credits signed by countries under new Paris Agreement mechanism

Trafigura’s Sustainability Strategy: Restoring Forests, Reviving Markets

Trafigura is capitalizing on this evolving landscape. As the world’s largest trader of carbon-removal credits, the company is expanding its portfolio to meet rising demand. 

In November 2024, Trafigura announced a $500 million investment in a carbon credits project to restore Africa’s Miombo woodlands. The project aligns with Article 6.4 guidelines, emphasizing quality and environmental impact.

In the same month, the giant commodity trader, alongside Temasek-owned GenZero, has pledged $100 million to Colombia’s largest nature-based carbon removal project. The project seeks to restore degraded land in the South American nation while generating carbon credits. 

Hauman noted that carbon credits are evolving from experimental tools to investment-grade assets, thanks to regulatory shifts. This transformation is expected to enable companies to incorporate credits into their long-term sustainability strategies confidently.

The company itself is pursuing ambitious carbon reduction goals, aiming to:

  1. cut Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 50% by 2032, and
  2. achieve net zero by 2050.

Trafigura net zero pathway

In addition to reducing its direct emissions, Trafigura is focused on lowering Scope 3 emissions intensity. This includes the impact of its traded products. To accelerate its energy transition, the company does these measures:

  • Invest heavily in renewable energy, including solar and wind projects.
  • Develop low-carbon fuels like green hydrogen and ammonia.
  • Launched a $2 billion fund in 2023 to support energy transition projects.

The fund is also for advancing its emissions trading activities, helping clients offset their carbon footprints with high-quality carbon credits.

A New Era of Investment-Grade Carbon Assets

While the carbon market faces hurdles such as inconsistent legal definitions and price volatility, companies like Trafigura, Cummins, Bosch, Daimler, Toyota, and Volvo see potential for growth. Regulators across regions recognize the role of carbon credits, especially removal-based units, in helping businesses achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century.

COP29 also marked a turning point for reforestation and afforestation projects under the UN’s Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). These projects, previously stalled, have been transferred to the revamped Article 6.4 framework, benefiting countries like India and Colombia, which host 27 eligible projects.

The carbon market is moving away from being policy-driven to becoming a dynamic investment arena. Trafigura’s strategic partnerships and investments position it to lead this transition. The company aims to drive both market growth and meaningful climate action, by addressing regulatory requirements and maintaining high-quality standards.

As the industry adapts to new rules, Trafigura’s efforts show the shift toward a more structured and credible carbon credits market. It underscores the company’s readiness to thrive in the evolving carbon market landscape.

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