Philippines Aims for Nickel Dominance with New Mining Reforms

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Philippines Aims for Nickel Dominance with New Mining Reforms

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is set to revitalize the country’s mining sector, particularly its nickel industry, through a proposed reform to the Philippine Mining Act of 1995. The legislation aims to streamline taxation, incorporate environmental considerations, and foster greater stakeholder involvement. These moves could position the country as a leader in the global nickel market.

Revamping Mining Laws to Boost Nickel Industry

The reform bill introduces a four-tier, margin-based royalty system, ranging from 1.5% to 5%, based on mine location. Additionally, environmental factors will play a central role in the approval process for new mines. This approach replaces the current system, which varies based on specific mining agreements and applies royalties only to mines in designated mineral reservations. 

Moreover, the proposed reforms will include essential aspects of project approvals that weren’t there before, per S&P Global analyst Paul Manalo. For instance, local community and local government involvement and biodiversity.

The bill is currently awaiting Senate approval. Yet, it has received strong endorsements from government officials and industry stakeholders. Michael Toledo, chairman of the Chamber of Mines of the Philippines, expressed optimism: 

“The president himself mentioned to me that he is fully aware of mining’s importance to our country’s socioeconomic growth and of the issues that hinder the industry from attaining its full potential.”

Sustainability and Innovation at the Core of New Policies

President Marcos has been a vocal advocate for responsible and sustainable mining practices since taking office in mid-2022. During the 2023 Presidential Mineral Industry Environmental Award ceremony, he emphasized the importance of clean and efficient extraction processes that restore mined lands, noting that:

“We must also foster innovation by driving research into new methods of mineral processing—methods that reduce waste and energy consumption.” 

Marcos reiterated his commitment to refining mining policies to align with these priorities. The Philippines is the second-largest producer of mined nickel in 2023 as seen in the chart. 

2023 Nickel Production by Country

It maintained its position last year, boasting 13.4 million metric tons of reserves and resources. The country produced 387,000 metric tons of nickel last year, trailing only Indonesia, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. 

Philippine share of global deposits for nickel and others reserves and resources

However, the government and industry leaders are eager to boost production further and expand the value chain by processing nickel domestically.

Toledo highlighted the need for collaboration with international partners, such as South Korea, Japan, and the European Union, to access alternative smelting technologies. He further noted that mineral extraction and processing are the foundation of the clean energy supply chain. Currently, there isn’t enough ore being mined to meet the demands of facilities still in development.

Digital Transformation in Mining Permits

The Philippine government is taking steps to improve regulatory processes in the nickel and other metals industry, too. In October 2024, a digital application system for mining permits was launched in three regions, with plans for nationwide expansion. This initiative aims to reduce permitting times to two years, significantly faster than the current timeline.

Additionally, the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) is drafting an executive order to clarify conflicting interpretations of existing mining royalty laws. In the first quarter of 2024, the Philippines approved 785 mining-related permits, including the following:

  • mineral production sharing agreements, 
  • financial or technical assistance agreements, and 
  • exploration permits. 

Despite these approvals, 1,509 applications remain under review.

Prices and Prospects for the Nickel Market

Globally, nickel prices experienced significant volatility in late 2024. It was driven by macroeconomic and political developments following Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential election victory.

The LME three-month nickel price fell to a 4-year low, influenced by various concerns like Trump’s economic policies and rising LME inventories. Investor sentiment was further impacted by China’s fiscal stimulus package, which failed to meet expectations.

Although prices temporarily rose after Trump’s victory, they quickly declined as market concerns about higher tariffs on Chinese imports and prolonged high interest rates intensified. By late November, nickel prices rebounded due to Indonesia’s tighter mining policies and a 50-fold surge in nickel ore imports.

Amid all these, an emerging nickel player is making a huge wave in the United States – Alaska Energy Metals Corporation (AEMC). The company is advancing U.S. nickel independence. Its flagship Nikolai project in Alaska boasts substantial resources of nickel, copper, cobalt, and platinum group metals critical for renewable energy and electric vehicles (EVs).

The Canadian nickel junior prioritizes sustainability and critical mineral supply, reducing U.S. reliance on imports.

Yet, the price volatility highlights the market’s sensitivity to global economic and geopolitical events. However, despite the price challenges in 2024, the Philippine Chamber of Mines remains optimistic about nickel’s long-term prospects.

  • Global nickel production is estimated to grow to more than 4 million metric tonnes in 2030.

global nickel production forecast

Demand for the metal, driven by the global energy transition, is expected to remain robust. Nickel is a key component in batteries for EVs and renewable energy storage, making it indispensable for achieving net-zero emissions targets.

One factor of uncertainty is the geopolitical impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to office. Trump has threatened to disrupt existing trade relationships, potentially affecting global metals trade flows.

On this note, Toledo said that while Trump’s re-election could slow the push for net zero, it won’t stop it entirely. With rich nickel reserves and strategic reforms on the horizon, the Philippines is well-positioned to strengthen its role in the global mining landscape.

The proposed legislation’s emphasis on sustainability, innovation, and efficiency could unlock new opportunities, attract international investments, and elevate the country’s status as a key supplier in the clean energy transition. 

If the bill passes, the nickel mining industry could become a cornerstone of the Philippines’ economic growth in the years ahead.

Disclosure: Owners, members, directors, and employees of carboncredits.com have/may have stock or option positions in any of the companies mentioned: AEMC.

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2025 Uranium Outlook: Will this Critical Commodity Endure its Golden Glow?

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uranium outlook

Top research agencies and industrialists are expecting a steady uranium production in 2025. They believe demand will be driven by rising global demand for nuclear energy as a zero-carbon power source.

In 2024, the market saw an activity uptick, with producers reopening mines and planning expansions to meet the needs of nations like the US, Canada, and the EU. Additionally, adoption and investment in small modular reactors significantly increased uranium demand.

So, what’s in store for uranium in 2025? Can supply keep pace with soaring demand, or will it crumble under the pressure? And what’s the price forecast looking like? Let’s study the report to find out the answers…

2024’s Most Significant Uranium Deals

The demand for nuclear energy has risen leaps and bounds as countries seek low-carbon power to meet their energy demands. Electrification, big data centers, and artificial intelligence (AI) are fueling the push for more reliable and clean energy sources.

uranium production

We have seen many retired power plants being reactivated, and new nuclear construction projects are happening worldwide. This is because, in this new dawn, governments and companies are prioritizing nuclear power as the pillar of energy transition. And this scenario directly connects with the global uranium supply chain.

Significantly, the global uranium market is responding to this increased demand for nuclear energy. Uranium mining stocks surged in 2024 after top tech companies like Meta, Google, Microsoft, and Oracle, announced their entry into nuclear to satiate the energy demand of their data centers. This further shows demand for uranium is going to rise.

One of the most notable deals of last year was Paladin Energy’s acquisition of Canadian company Fission Uranium for CA$1.14 billion. However, this deal has been delayed as the Canadian government raised national security concerns.

Apart from this, several other uranium deals progressed smoothly:

  • Uranium Energy Corp. resumed operations at Willow Creek in Wyoming, marking a key milestone in the company’s production efforts.
  • Paladin Energy Ltd. successfully restarted its Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia, achieving commercial production.
  • Boss Energy began its first drum of uranium produced at its Honeymoon project in Australia in April 2024.
  • IsoEnergy’s acquisition of Anfield Energy expanded its uranium resources significantly. The company’s measured and indicated uranium resources increased to 17 million pounds, with inferred resources now at 10.6 million pounds. This positions IsoEnergy as a potential key player in the U.S. uranium market.

More Power per Punch: Nuclear Energy Outshines Fossil Fuels

carbon credits

Global Rise in Uranium Activity

Russia’s state-owned Rosatom has been offloading its stakes in Kazakhstan’s uranium mines, with Chinese companies stepping in as key buyers. Notable deals include selling 49.979% of Rosatom’s share in the Zarechnoye mine and transferring a 30% stake in the Khorasan-U joint venture to Chinese firms. These moves reflect a shift toward regional and China’s emergence in the uranium market.

Moving on, in Canada, Cameco Corp. has ambitious plans to increase annual output at its McArthur River mine from 18 million to 25 million pounds, alongside extending the operational life of its Cigar Lake mine. Recently, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission has also approved Urenco USA’s request to amend its license, allowing for uranium enrichment levels of up to 10% at its New Mexico facility.

France has injected €300m ($330m) into uranium major Orano to revamp the country’s uranium industry. Additionally, Brazil is partnering with mining firms to revive uranium production which is stagnant since Indústrias Nucleares do Brasil SA began operating its sole mine in 1982.

Thus, globally, several countries and companies are stepping up initiatives to expand uranium production.

Uranium Supply and Demand Estimates (2008-2040E)uranium mining

Source: Sprott (UxC and Cameco Corp. Data as of 9/30/2024)

Tax and Trade Tensions: Can Uranium Rise Above the Challenges?

S&P Global has highlighted several challenges for uranium production ranging from timeline to geopolitical tensions, tax policies, and technical challenges faced by some uranium mining giants. We have explained these challenges below:  

To begin with the U.S., Trump’s statement about imposing a 25% tariff on all products from Mexico and Canada has given rise to some serious concerns. In 2023 Canada supplied 27% of uranium to U.S. nuclear plants, making it the largest supplier.

However, the U.S. faces challenges in boosting domestic production. According to the US Energy Information Administration, the U.S. purchased 40.5 million pounds of U3O8 in 2022.

Industry experts predict that utilities will push to ensure uranium imports from Canada remain unaffected by potential tariffs, as Canada is a critical and reliable partner.

Geopolitical tensions have further complicated the uranium trade. In May, the U.S. banned imports of Russian uranium, which accounted for 11.8% of its 2022 uranium supply. In response, Russia restricted enriched uranium exports to the U.S. which escalated trade tensions.

Even leading uranium producers faced substantial setbacks. Kazakhstan’s NAC Kazatomprom, the world’s largest producer, reduced its 2025 output target due to difficulties in securing sulfuric acid, a key material for extraction. Similarly, Orano suspended mining activities at its Somair project as it faced financial strains and permit issues.

Uranium’s Future: Predictions for 2025

Uranium prices had a rollercoaster year in 2024. S&P Global reported that the Platts-assessed spot price of U3O8 peaked at $106.75 per pound in February.

In November 2024, Uranium spot price retraced to $77.08, according to the Sprott Uranium Report. Despite the dip, prices remain higher compared to historical levels, with the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust helping to stabilize around $80.

Image: Uranium Miners vs. Spot Uranium (2014-2024)

uranium priceSource: Sprott (Bloomberg and TradeTech LLC. Data from 9/30/2014 to 9/30/2024)

Looking ahead, several factors are driving optimism for uranium’s 2025 future. A persistent supply crunch, growing focus on nuclear energy, global energy policies, and geopolitical shifts will drive demand in the future.

  • While short-term volatility may persist, experts predict uranium prices will rebound to $90–$100 per pound by mid-2025.

However, significant investments in new mines, conversion plants, and enrichment facilities will be needed to ramp up uranium production. Moreover, overcoming the challenges we have explained before would also play a significant role in uranium’s bright future. 

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Equinor’s $3B Financing Deal for Empire Wind 1 Project: A Turning Point for U.S. Offshore Wind?

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Equinor

Equinor announced that its Empire Wind 1 offshore wind project in the United States has secured a financing package exceeding $3 billion. A financial close was reached in December 2024 that bolstered the company’s renewable energy initiative. Empire Wind 1 will provide clean energy to 500,000 homes in New York after being fully operational in 2027.

Jens Økland, acting executive vice president for Renewables in Equinor noted,

“This is an important milestone for Equinor, in line with our plan to enhance value and reduce exposure in the Empire Wind 1 project. As we now enter full execution mode, we continue our efforts to increase robustness and value-creation in the project.” 

Equinor Powers Up New York’s Green Future

Equinor further revealed that the total capital investment for Empire Wind 1 is $5 billion, inclusive of fees related to the South Brooklyn Marine Terminal (SBMT). The investments rely on future tax credits (ITCs) to strengthen financial viability. Construction has already begun on the 80,000-acre project that is located 15-30 miles southeast of Long Island.

Moving on, the company finalized the project’s investment decision earlier in 2024 and has planned to farm down its stake in Empire Wind 1 to a new partner. This strategy aims to enhance project value while minimizing risk exposure.

Additionally, Equinor executed a 25-year Purchase and Sale Agreement (PSA) with the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) in June 2024. Under this agreement, power will be supplied at a strike price of $155 per megawatt-hour to ensure stable revenue flow for the project.

Job Creation and Economic Impact

Empire Wind 1 will significantly boost local employment and infrastructure. The redevelopment of the South Brooklyn Marine Terminal as a state-of-the-art offshore wind hub will support over 1,000 union jobs during the construction phase.

On completion, the terminal will serve as the project’s operations and maintenance hub. It will also house the onshore substation connecting Empire Wind 1 to the New York City grid. This arrangement will make Empire Wind 1 the first offshore wind project to integrate directly into the city’s power network.

Molly Morris, senior vice president for Renewables in Equinor Americas said,

“Today’s financial close maintains our momentum toward bringing a significant source of power to the grid. Empire Wind 1 will strengthen US energy security, build economic growth and fuel a new American supply chain. Our redevelopment of the South Brooklyn Marine Terminal is already putting more than 1,000 people to work. Equinor is proud to play a part in advancing domestic energy solutions safely, efficiently, and for the long term.”  

Strong Financial Backing

The financing package for Empire Wind 1 reflects strong lender confidence in the project’s viability. Furthermore, leading financial institutions showed keen interest that helped in achieving competitive terms.

The press release also mentioned that the final group of lenders included some of the most experienced players in the renewable energy sector, as well as several of Equinor’s long-standing banking partners.

Empire Wind Supporting New York’s Renewable Energy Goals

New York State has set ambitious renewable energy targets, and Equinor’s offshore wind projects are playing a pivotal role here. Empire Wind is being developed in two phases: Empire Wind 1 and Empire Wind 2. While Empire Wind 1 has a contracted capacity of 810 MW, Empire Wind 2 has the potential to generate 1,260 MW. Together, the two projects are expected to supply clean energy to more than one million homes.

Empire Wind 2 is currently being re-evaluated for future solicitations. Meanwhile, Empire Wind 1’s first power delivery is anticipated in the mid-2020s which will further advance New York’s transition to renewable energy.

History of Empire Wind

  • 2017: Equinor acquired the Empire Wind lease area after the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management’s auction in December 2016.
  • 2020: BP acquired a 50% stake in Equinor’s Empire Wind and Beacon Wind assets for $1.1 billion.
  • 2022: Equinor signed an agreement to transform South Brooklyn Marine Terminal (SBMT) into a premier offshore wind hub.
  • April 2024: Equinor assumed full ownership of Empire Wind projects, while BP took over the Beacon Wind assets, through a cash-neutral transaction.
  • June 2024: Equinor secured the PSA with New York State for a 25-year power supply agreement at $155/MWh.

Equinor Empire Wind

Source: Equinor: Empire Wind

South Brooklyn Marine Terminal: A Game-Changer for Offshore Wind

The South Brooklyn Marine Terminal is set to become the largest dedicated offshore wind port facility in the U.S. This redevelopment underscores Equinor’s commitment to fostering local economic growth and advancing renewable energy infrastructure.

The terminal will handle staging, pre-assembly, and long-term maintenance operations for Empire Wind 1. This will certainly solidify its support for New York’s clean energy transformation goals.

Future Prospects for the U.S. Offshore Wind Energy 

NYSERDA President and CEO Doreen M. Harris noted in the earlier press release,

“Major renewable energy infrastructure projects such as Empire Wind 1 are a crucial component in reaching toward New York’s climate goals. NYSERDA applauds Equinor for its ongoing commitment to investing in New York’s green economy, including the redevelopment of South Brooklyn Marine Terminal, and helping to stand-up New York’s offshore wind industry one significant milestone at a time.”  

Thus, Equinor’s investment in Empire Wind aligns with the U.S. offshore wind industry’s growing momentum. The project’s integration into the New York City grid highlights its importance in meeting urban energy demands sustainably. By harnessing strong wind resources off Long Island’s coast, Empire Wind 1 is taking a huge step to decarbonize the energy sector.

u.s. offshore windSource: National Renewable Energy Laboratory Offshore Wind Market Report

With a reliable financing backup and proper construction plans, Empire Wind 1 is all set to deliver renewable energy to New York. Equinor is hopeful that the project’s success could lead by example for future offshore wind initiatives across the U.S.

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Meta and WRI Unveiled AI-Powered Global Tree Canopy Map

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Meta and WRI Unveiled AI-Powered Global Tree Canopy Map

Meta, the World Resources Institute (WRI), and Land & Carbon Lab have introduced a game-changing tool for environmental monitoring: the first-ever global map of tree canopy height at a 1-meter resolution.

This cutting-edge AI-powered map can detect individual trees worldwide, addressing longstanding gaps in the forest carbon credit market. It is also a leap forward in environmental science, offering unprecedented insights into tree distribution, canopy height, and forest health.

Unparalleled Precision: 50 Million Sq. Km Mapped at 1-Meter Resolution

The innovative map leverages artificial intelligence to analyze more than a trillion pixels from 18 million satellite images. The result is a highly accurate global dataset with a mean absolute error of just 2.8 meters. Such precision is critical for monitoring and verification purposes, especially in areas where accurate data has historically been challenging to obtain. 

According to Meta, the model establishes a global baseline for tree canopy height, enabling improved understanding and management of forest ecosystems. 

The dataset reveals that approximately one-third of Earth’s landmass—about 50 million square kilometers—has a canopy height above 1 meter. By providing such granular data, this tool offers invaluable insights into the state of global forests, facilitating more targeted and effective conservation efforts.

A notable feature of the initiative is its commitment to open access. The data and models are freely available on platforms such as AWS, Google Earth Engine, and GitHub. Thus, it is accessible to researchers, policymakers, and businesses worldwide. This approach encourages innovation across various fields, from carbon credit verification to environmental conservation.

Meta emphasized the significance of democratizing AI technology, stating:

“Democratizing access to artificial intelligence can be an important tool in unlocking finance for and increasing transparency in mitigating and adapting to climate change.”

Land & Carbon Lab, convened by WRI and the Bezos Earth Fund, is a leading organization dedicated to monitoring and analyzing global land and carbon dynamics. Their Global Tree Canopy Height dataset provides high-resolution, globally consistent measurements of tree heights, offering critical insights into forest structure and carbon storage.

The company delivers accurate and up-to-date information by leveraging advanced satellite imagery and machine learning techniques. Their work enhances our understanding of Earth’s ecosystems and informs strategies to protect and restore vital natural resources.

Laconic and Planet Labs made a similar effort. They partnered for a monitoring system that aims to improve the accuracy of forest carbon projects.

Revolutionizing Forest Carbon Markets

One of the map’s most significant applications is its potential to transform carbon markets. 

Forests play a critical role in carbon sequestration, but accurately monitoring and verifying forest carbon credits has been a persistent challenge. High-resolution data provided by this map enhances the ability to track tree growth, particularly in sparse or small-scale forests.

Providing detailed data on tree distribution and canopy height helps identify areas that require immediate attention or are best suited for reforestation. This level of detail is particularly valuable for managing degraded lands, where precision is crucial for effective restoration.

This improved tracking capability ensures greater transparency and accountability in carbon markets. Meta highlighted this point, noting that: 

“forest-based carbon removal and the use of technology to better monitor, report, and verify carbon sequestration are essential components of Meta’s carbon removal strategy.”

By addressing these challenges, the map strengthens the integrity of carbon markets and supports global efforts to combat climate change. It also facilitates the creation of actionable strategies for carbon removal and forest restoration, ensuring that investments in these areas yield measurable results.

Meta has been investing heavily in carbon removal initiatives, including nature-based carbon projects. Carbon removal is a key part of its strategy to reduce carbon emissions.

carbon removal projects backed by Meta

Advanced AI at Work

The technological backbone of the map is an AI model called DiNOv2, which employs Self-Supervised Learning (SSL) to process vast amounts of unlabeled satellite imagery. SSL enables the model to learn patterns and features in data without requiring manual labeling, making it highly scalable and robust.

DiNOv2’s capabilities extend beyond canopy height mapping. It can also support applications like tree detection and segmentation, providing even more tools for researchers and conservationists. 

Moreover, the open-access nature of the model enables stakeholders from diverse fields to leverage the dataset for various applications, from scientific research to practical conservation initiatives.

By leveraging this advanced AI technology, Meta and its partners have created a tool that is not only highly accurate but also adaptable to various environmental challenges.

You can explore the tool via Google Earth Engine here.

A Transformative Step for Carbon Market Integrity

Carbon markets are increasingly recognized as a vital tool for addressing climate change. However, their success depends on accurate monitoring and verification of carbon sequestration efforts. 

The market has been under intense scrutiny because of various nature-based carbon removal projects suspected and accused of dubious impact. This resulted in decreasing trust and confidence in the market. 

The high-resolution tree canopy map addresses this need by providing reliable data that enhances transparency and accountability. By enabling precise monitoring of tree growth and forest health, the map helps verify that carbon removal projects are delivering on their promises. This, in turn, builds trust among market players and encourages greater investment in forest-based carbon removal initiatives.

Meta, WRI, and Land & Carbon Lab have not only created a powerful tool but also set an example of how technology, collaboration, and accessibility can drive meaningful change in addressing the world’s most pressing environmental challenges.

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