Oil & Gas Firms to Emit 150B Metric Tons of Carbon Pollution

According to an analysis by Global Witness, over 50 oil and gas companies signing the decarbonization pact at the COP28 climate summit are projected to emit over 150 billion metric tons of climate pollution by 2050. That represents about 62% of the remaining carbon dioxide budget to stay below the 1.5°C temperature rise limit.

The data used in the analysis covers only crude oil and gas. It didn’t include figures for NGL and condensate, which makes the production estimates conservative.

The analysts based their carbon budget calculations using the equivalent of 250 billion tonnes CO2 equivalent to retain a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5C, which is according to the latest peer-reviewed research.

The dataset includes all assets that are presently in production, under development (approved but haven’t commenced yet), discovery, and undiscovered. The data covers operating production from 2023 to 2050. 

RELATED: The Top 4 Important Highlights at COP28

Unraveling the Hidden Impact of Oil & Gas Climate Pledge

The Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter was introduced at COP28 by Saudi Arabia and conference president Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber. Al Jaber emphasized its significance, claiming that companies representing over 40% of global oil production committed to achieving net zero. The pact also commits to end methane emission and halt routine flaring by 2030. 

Saudi Arabia’s Aramco and the UAE’s ADNOC, alongside 29 more national oil companies, inked the non-binding charter. PetroChina, ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, Petrobras, and Shell have signed the agreement, though their agreement is only voluntary. 

Direct GHG emissions of largest oil companies in 2022

The pact signifies a promising climate commitment from the oil majors. However, a significant loophole exists, as highlighted by Global Witness.

The charter exclusively addresses emissions directly released by those companies. They leave out the considerable impact of their products’ use, known as Scope 3 emissions. This pollution source comprises up to 90% of the oil and gas’ total carbon emissions. 

Global Witness used data from Rystad Energy to look at the production plans of the pact’s signatories, including major state and private companies. 

The analysts found out that the companies would produce 265 billion barrels of oil and 26.7 billion cubic meters of gas by 2050. This would result in 156 billion metric tons of CO2 equivalent emissions, or approximately 62% of the remaining carbon budget.

Source: Twitter.com/benmsanderson/

Among the companies that signed the pact, those with the largest carbon footprints through 2050 include ADNOC and Saudi Aramco. Together, they have a combined production of 136.4 billion barrels of oil and 5.5 billion cubic meters of gas between them.

Their projected production would emit more than a quarter of the remaining carbon budget – 64.7 billion tonnes of CO2.

ExxonMobil, Equinor, TotalEnergies, Eni, and Shell also have plans to emit as much as the European Union does in 15 years – 38.6 billion tonnes of CO2.

The Climate Challenges Beyond COP28 Promises

The findings further stir climate activists’ greenwashing claims against oil and gas companies. They have expressed concerns about fossil fuel companies prioritizing profit extraction over environmental preservation, reinforcing the perception of greenwashing.

In another analysis, the COP28 draft dropped mention of fossil fuel phase out. It instead advances the ramping up of renewable energy and efficiency measures. Campaigners stated that governments must do something urgent and concrete to phase out fossil fuels.

READ MORE: COP28 Draft Drops Mention of Fossil Fuel Phase Out, Advances Renewables

Concerns were raised about the portion of the industry’s emissions reduction commitments compared to the environmental impact of their products. A climate campaigner, Cara Jenkinson, Cities Manager at Ashden, remarked that: 

“The only way to slash emissions from usage of oil and gas is to cut demand – governments across the world must speed up their electrification plans, with poorer nations being supported to bypass fossil fuel vehicles and ramp up clean renewable energy production.” 

Responding to the concern, a spokesperson from Shell said that:

“While Shell’s targets are more comprehensive and ambitious than the Charter requirements, for example with carbon intensity targets that also cover the use of our energy products, we want to share our experience and learn as others in the industry move further along their journeys too.” 

In the shadow of climate commitments at COP28, the analysis by Global Witness reveals a stark reality – oil and gas companies are to burn through 62% of the remaining carbon budget. The results raise critical questions about the industry’s true environmental costs. 

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Top Lithium Stocks Making Waves in 2024

Lithium, a vital elemental metal, also dubbed as “white gold”, has gained significant attention as a sought-after commodity. This is particularly due to its crucial role in battery manufacturing for electric vehicles (EVs). 

The surge in EV sales has fueled optimism among investors regarding companies involved in lithium production and refinement. Despite being a common substance, lithium prices experienced an astounding 1,000% increase from 2021 to the end of 2022. This exceeds the previous highs set in 2017.

However, the landscape changed in 2023.

An increasing supply of lithium from mines in Africa and Australia is putting downward pressure on prices. Plus, reports of lower consumer demand for EVs in the U.S. and China may further contribute to a decline in lithium prices.

Lithium Carbonate (CNY) Price

Source: Trading Economics

Following the unprecedented boom of 2021/2022, stocks of lithium producers have faced significant declines due to a continued plunge in lithium prices. 

As with all commodity stocks, lithium stocks are intricately tied to supply and demand dynamics in the underlying materials they deal with. The future trajectory of lithium prices and associated stock values will likely be influenced by the continued demand for EVs. 

Investing in top lithium stocks follows a similar process to investing in any other type of stock.

Here are our top picks for lithium stocks that are worth each penny of consideration. 

Albemarle Corporation (ALB)

Market cap: US$15.1 billion

Enterprise value: US$17.1 billion

Albemarle Corp. stands prominently among the largest lithium stocks and is a key player in lithium mining. With a market value comparable to other major commodities such as Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD).

The company’s substantial scale and the optimistic long-term forecasts for EV demand position Albemarle as one of the top lithium stocks in the current market. Albemarle has embarked on a significant production expansion initiative in South Carolina, projecting an annual capacity of about 225,000 metric tons of lithium. 

The American lithium giant anticipates this capacity to triple by the 2030, aligning its growth plans and expectations for the growing EV sector. 

But recently, it redirected efforts towards its Kings Mountain lithium-spodumene mine resource in North Carolina, in response to softer market conditions.

Albemarle had warned of potential market share loss to Chinese producers after its unsuccessful takeover bid for Australian lithium producer Liontown Resources. The $4.2 billion merger was abandoned.

The largest producer of lithium for EV batteries has also revised its annual forecast downwards at the end of last year. They further reported a lower-than-expected quarterly profit due to declining prices for lithium. 

Still, Albemarle now anticipates a 30% increase in lithium sales volume for the year. But with prices expected to rise only 15%, falling short of market expectations for robust growth.

The reduction in demand from consumers has led major EV manufacturers like Tesla, Ford Motor, General Motors, and Rivian to scale back production. Additionally, Toyota Motor has cut its EV sales forecast by 40% in 2024 due to lower demand in China. This reduced demand is impacting the lithium market and related stocks.

Albemarle’s peers have experienced similar declines. For instance, shares of Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. are down -39.4% YTD. 

Sociedad Química y Minera S.A. (SQM)

Market cap: US$15.1 billion

Enterprise value: US$16.1 billion

Chile, globally recognized for its mineral wealth, features Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM) at the core of its mining industry. While SQM engages in the production of various minerals, its significance in lithium extraction is paramount. 

Alongside diversified mining counterparts like Albemarle and Ganfeng, SQM maintains robust double-digit operating profit margins, substantial cash reserves for expansion, and minimal debt.

In 2022, SQM achieved its highest-ever corporate revenues, surpassing $10.7 billion in sales. A substantial 76% of this revenue was derived from lithium and related products.

SQM’s pivotal role goes beyond its economic contributions, as it stands as the largest taxpayer in Chile. Recent discussions about the government potentially increasing its stake in the company have emerged and raised eyebrows. 

Such a move introduces the inherent risks associated with government ownership, including the possibility of political interference. Some investors don’t find it a favorable development.

The trajectory of SQM’s shares showed positive momentum until late 2022, when a decline followed. This is largely due to weakened lithium prices and concerns about the company receiving a fair valuation for the anticipated increased government stake.

The impending nationalization raises uncertainties about state control of lithium. Once this pushes through, it may impact SQM’s profitability. 

Looking forward to a long-term demand for lithium to exceed supply, SQM has strategically invested in expanding its production capacity. These developments position the company to augment its market share in the lithium supply chain, particularly for EV batteries. 

Li-FT Power (LIFT; LIFFF)

Market cap: US$168.5 million

Enterprise value: US$163.4 million

Given the insufficient domestic lithium reserves to meet demand, the U.S. is in a challenging position. With the need for a domestic supply, Canada is positioned to contribute to meeting U.S. lithium requirements. This is where a junior lithium company, Li-FT Power (LIFT: LIFFF), based in Vancouver, British Columbia, perfectly comes into the picture. 

Li-FT has acquired promising lithium assets in Canada, starting drilling on their flagship project in June last year. The company’s investment thesis revolves around the aggressive exploration and expansion of high-grade lithium pegmatites to define world-scale resources in a proven mining jurisdiction. 

The company’s strategy focuses on consolidating and advancing hard rock lithium pegmatite projects in Canada, particularly in known lithium districts. Li-FT Power aims to apply modern systematic exploration techniques to unveil value in these projects that historical work hasn’t fully realized.

The project portfolio includes assets in the Northwest Territories and Quebec, with flagship projects like the Yellowknife Lithium Project and the Pontax Project, which has revealed an 8km long lithium anomaly. 

The company is well-financed to progress its projects, cementing its commitment to advancing the exploration and development of high-quality lithium assets in Canada.

LIFT strategically positions itself to take advantage of weak industry sentiment, allowing for the acquisition of shares at discounted valuations. 

The Lithium Deficit Looms 

While those top lithium stocks are making waves in 2024, projections indicate that lithium prices will further decline due to: 

increasing supplies of the battery metal, and 
subdued demand from China. 

In China, lithium carbonate prices have plummeted from an all-time high of $81,360 per tonne in November 2022. This is the lowest level in two years at $20,782 per tonne in the current month. As lithium carbonate prices have fallen by 67% year-on-year, Chinese refining companies are responding by cutting production or suspending operations.

This represents a nearly 75% correction due to a series of negative catalysts that have suppressed lithium prices. The situation is even more challenging for lithium hydroxide markets, primarily due to the sluggish performance of the nickel cobalt manganese battery sector compared to the lithium iron phosphate battery sector.

Australia, which contributes 40% of global lithium production, expects a decline in the spot price of spodumene from around $3,840 per tonne in 2022 to $2,200 per tonne in 2025. 

Lithium miners are adjusting to the sharp drop in demand for EVs in China by reducing costs and scaling back production expansion plans. 

This response aligns with the challenges faced by lithium producers globally as the market grapples with oversupply and weakening demand for EVs.

The inability of China to meet its own demand for lithium, despite being the world’s 3rd-largest producer, has significant implications for other countries that rely on Chinese lithium. This is why the US aims to develop its own lithium supply chain that doesn’t depend on China.

RELATED: Lithium-Ion Wars: US Battery Imports Soar by 66%, Setting New Record as Domestic Production Ramps Up

The Inflation Reduction Act, in particular, specifically promotes onshoring of clean energy manufacturing, including EVs, within the U.S. And that also means to reduce or cut off import of lithium from China.

Corinne Blanchard, Deutsche Bank’s director of lithium and clean tech equity research, is among the analysts predicting a future shortage in the lithium industry. Despite forecasting supply growth, she believes that demand will outpace it at a much faster pace. 

Blanchard anticipates a “modest deficit” of around 40,000 to 60,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent by the end of 2025, but she foresees a much larger deficit of 768,000 tonnes by the end of 2030. This forecast aligns with the broader industry expectations of increasing demand for lithium, particularly driven by the growing EV market.

2024 unfolds with challenges for the lithium market, witnessing stock declines post 2023’s meteoric rise. Despite the setback, top players like Albemarle, SQM, and Li-FT Power strategically position themselves. As global trends hint at a Chinese lithium market decline, industry experts see a future lithium deficit, driven by the relentless growth in the EV market.

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Carbon Market Chronicles: 2023 Unveiled and 2024’s Inflection Points

The voluntary carbon market (VCM) witnessed both considerable progress and significant hurdles in 2023 as reviewed by the MSCI Carbon Markets in its recent webinar. 

The review includes key developments from 2023 and the potential inflection points to watch out for in 2024. Notably, the findings show that 2023 has the lowest number of credits issued in 3 years. In contrast, the year ended with a record number of monthly retirements. 

Here’s a recap of the webinar, focusing on carbon credit issuances and retirements, demand, key market players, investment, major policy developments, and 2024 outlook.

Peaks, Valleys, and 2023’s Record Retirements

In 2023, credit issuances recorded the lowest annual total in 3 years after falling 25% year-on-year, as seen below. This slow down in supply was largely due to Nature-based and renewable energy projects issuing their lowest annual amounts in 5 and 4 years, respectively. 

On the other hand, energy efficiency projects were the only major type to increase credit supply. It doubled in 2022 volumes, primarily driven by cook stove projects. 

The MSCI report saw retirements rallied in Q4 2023, the second highest quarter on record. And that’s despite the slow down in corporate activity in mid-year. This momentum seems to have been carried into January this year. 

In fact, that’s the second highest January to date and may even exceed the 17 MtCO2 set in 2022. December 2023 alone has seen 36 megatons of credit retirement, setting a new monthly high, around 25% above the previous high record. 

When it comes to registries, the four largest, namely Verra, Gold Standard, ACR, and CAR continue to dominate the market. They provide more than 90% of the credits retired last year. 

Retirements from these “Big 4” registries actually rose last year by 6%, while retirements across the next ten prominent names dropped slightly in 2023. 

The Top 10 Credit Retirees

Of the top 10 retirees, Delta Airlines aced the first spot. They were also the largest retiree corporate in 2021 and 2022. While some of these companies exited the top 10 last year, others remain while new ones entered the market.

Shell topped the list in 2023 with around 16 million metric tonnes, followed by Volkswagen with over 8 MtCO2e. Overall, there are more joiners than leavers last year when it comes to retiring credits. 

Unlocking the Nascent Carbon Removal Market

Gaining a lot of interest in 2023 is the nascent CDR market, referring to high permanent engineered carbon removals. These include biochar and direct air capture, which usually command a premium price than other project types. That’s because they’re known to be of higher quality and high durability. 

Last year, the number of CDR transactions fell slightly year-on-year. But the quantity of credits, represented by the right hand chart, increased significantly to 5.4 million.  

Navigating the Ups and Downs of Carbon Credit  Prices 

The declining trend in 2022 was carried over into the first half of 2023. But looking at the average level, the drop wasn’t that much. It was only 16% lower in 2022 compared to 2023. 

In terms of price by project type for last year, all of them were lower in Q4, resulting in full year price declines. REDD+ projects saw the least drop, 15%, while renewable energy experienced the largest price decrease, 39%. 

Both energy efficiency (pink line) and REDD+ (green line) projects were subject to increased media and academic scrutiny in 2023. They sustained weaker prices.

Interestingly, both nature restoration and non-CO2 gasses projects rebounded in November and December last year. Meanwhile, energy efficiency, REDD+, and non-CO2 gasses converged around the same price level at $4.65 by the end of the year. 

This suggests that the market is not distinguishing between these project types, potentially signaling a weak market environment. 

Policy Developments in 2023: From EU Directives to COP28’s Uncharted Territories

Last year also saw some major policy developments. For instance, the EU’s green claims directive aims to empower consumers for the green transition directive. It bans claims of neutral, reduced, or positive climate impact based on carbon offsetting, on the grounds that it’s a misleading consumer practice. 

Moreover, the VCMI carbon integrity claims, the Claims Code of Practice (CCPs), is a significant regulation for the VCM.

There are also landmark regulations of market trading and standards wherein national governments are stepping in. For example, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) introduced proposed guidance for trading of voluntary carbon credit derivative contracts. 

In the Global South, there has been growth in national carbon credit markets while carbon pricing systems and schemes are being proposed in several African countries. Amid increased scrutiny in carbon credits certified by Verra, the leading carbon certifier updated its standards. 

At the COP28 climate summit, carbon markets find their footing amid Article 6 frustrated talks. Article 6.2 rules are mostly in place but there’s a lack of Article 6.4 agreement on key steps. Disagreements centered on integrity concerns, yet Article 6 agreements are moving ahead. 

Looking forward, MSCI Head of Carbon Markets, Guy Turner, raised a pertinent question: “Could we be at an inflection point for the market in 2024?”

There could be a number of inflection points, five in particular. 

The potential new sources of demand driven by CORSIA, VCMI, SBTi, and more compliance markets in near and long term. 
Quality initiatives moving into implementation.
Jurisdictional approaches are starting to take off – whether by governments or donor institutions. High interests are observed in jurisdictional soil carbon and blue carbon.
Increasing clarity for corporations on claims and disclosures on the use of credits, with the EU and UK taking the lead.
Macroeconomic cycle turning but political uncertainties

In the ever-evolving landscape of the voluntary carbon market, 2023 marked both triumphs and challenges. From record retirements to the rise of CDR investments, the market navigated uncertainties. As 2024 unfolds, potential inflection points await, shaping the future trajectory of the global carbon market.

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January 2024 Reveals Voluntary Carbon Credit Market Surprises

January 2024 has witnessed more retirements compared to the same month last year, and it is projected to exceed 2022 retirements, according to Viridios AI report, a voluntary carbon credit market pricing and data provider.

Viridios is a climate tech platform providing carbon credit prices, valuations and project data to boost voluntary carbon market transparency. 

Overall, trading in the Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM) was relatively light in the past week. 

Renewable energy credits (RECs), particularly from India, have experienced price increases, leading to a shift in demand from Chinese to Indian credits. In the native species removals market, activity is slow, but a premium is emerging for projects in this category.

However, the REDD+ segment is facing minimal activity, both in the market and over-the-counter, indicating subdued interest in this nature-based category. 

RELATED: Is REDD+ Dead? A Deep Dive into the Flaws and Recommendations for REDD+ Project Methodologies

Some sources indicate that political risks may not immediately impact pricing due to low credit supply. In contrast, others report current impacts on the Corresponding Adjustment market, with fluctuating premiums for cookstove credits. 

For instance, the Rwandan Cookstove project saw a significant jump from $5.85 to $14 for vintage 2021. Cambodia released its Article 6 operations manual, though not yet published, for a water purifier project and an improved cookstoves project.

Riding the Wave: January Retirements Soar

The projects in Viridios analysis come under three major categories: Pre-registration (Development, Review), Registered (Registered, Operational, Verified, Completed, Renewal, Paused), and Issuing.

As seen below, India has the most new projects in the pipeline while household devices got the most count. 

Per category, the REDD/REDD+ projects include efforts that avoid both planned and unplanned deforestation and degradation. Meanwhile, the ARR projects, which has the most count, involve various activities, including Afforestation, Reforestation, and Revegetation initiatives.

REDD+ Projects

ARR Projects

Most REDD+ projects, priced highest at $16.17, are in Brazil while ARR, with a $24.66 highest price, are most dominant in China. 

Technology projects (TECH) are related to Renewable Energy which include Biomass, Biofuels, Hydro, Solar, Wind, and Geothermal. While it has the largest number of projects, >7,500, its highest price at $7.11 is much lower than nature-based.

The report also provides insights on credit issuances and retirements in metric tonnes per month. The chart below shows a comprehensive view of cumulative credits issued by month over the past 3 years. Highest issuances are in December, both for 2022 and 2023. 

The same trend can be observed in terms of credit retirements. Most credits are retired in December for both years, with more than 150 metric tonnes. 

When it comes to issuances by recognized standards, Verra has the biggest share, followed by Gold Standard (GS). The same is true for the number of credits retired by standard. 

Revealing a Dynamic Carbon Credit Market 

For market activity, the majority of the credit volume based on quotations ranges from 0-50,000 credits. This trend applies to all weeks covered from November 2023 to January 2024 as shown below. 

Breaking down the market volume per category, Nature-Based versus Technology, the latter has the largest share. This could perhaps be due to the intensifying scrutiny over nature-based carbon credit offsets, which faced high-profile investigations last year. 

RELATED: Investments in Nature-based Solutions Need $674B a Year by 2050

On the other hand, carbon removal technologies (direct air capture) received great interest from investors and government support globally. 

Additionally, Viridios report also looked at the VCM activity by major registries, including Verra’s VCS, GS, ACR, CAR, and CDM. ACR refers to American Carbon Registry, CAR means Climate Action Reserve, and CDM stands for Clean Development Mechanism.

Weekly data reveal that VCS and ACR almost have the same footing when it comes to carbon credit volume. 

Lastly, the report presents a geographical analysis on volume by continental regions. The North American region snags the largest market volume per week, followed by Asia. Notably, in the recent week, the Asian region got the most volume with Africa coming second. 

In the opening month of 2024, Viridios AI’s insightful report reveals a dynamic carbon credit landscape marked by a significant upswing in retirements and a distinct shift towards Indian RECs. The analysis delves into various project categories, painting a vivid picture of the evolving trends shaping the voluntary carbon market.

READ MORE: Carbon Prices and Voluntary Carbon Markets Faced Major Declines in 2023, What’s Next for 2024?

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Xpansiv Report: Carbon Credit Markets Experience Slowdown

The recent dynamics in the carbon credit markets have witnessed a slowdown in market momentum, following a period of acceleration during Q4 and into mid-January, according to Xpansiv’s market update. 

Xpansiv is a global energy transition market infrastructure provider, trading ESG commodities, including carbon, RECs, digital fuels, and water rights.

Last week, both the CBL spot exchange and CME Group’s CBL GEO emissions futures complex experienced light volumes in carbon credit trading. Despite this, there has been sustained high interest from companies, particularly those facing fiscal year-end reporting deadlines on March 31. 

The VCM Brake Amidst Busy Period

Companies focused on pragmatic purchases of currently available credits, irrespective of their eligibility for compliance and best-practice regimes scheduled for implementation later in 2024.

Amidst this backdrop, various companies, including airlines, are actively assessing the potential impact of unresolved Article 6 issues on CORSIA. This refers to the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation. 

The concerns primarily surround regulatory and legal uncertainties regarding credit certification under the current compliance phase of the UN scheme. These are particularly linked with the finality of corresponding adjustments.

Spot prices remained stable week over week, per Xpansiv data. Notably, the N-GEO saw small trades at $0.43 and $0.50 but closed at the same $0.37 assessed price as the previous week. 

Conversely, the CBL N-GEO December futures experienced a $0.56 decline on light volume, essentially erasing the previous week’s $0.70 gain. Similarly, the CBL GEO December futures decreased by $0.20. It closed at $0.66 and gave back a portion of the prior week’s $0.25 gain. The spot GEO slipped by $0.05, closing at $0.54.

In November last year, spot GEO jumped by 52% while N-GEO futures increased by 40%. 

RELATED: Xpansiv’s Update: Spot GEO Surges as N-GEO Futures Rise 

CBL’s spot carbon credit volume totaled 72,232 tons, with 57,225 nature credits and 11,307 technology credits. Additionally, trades in Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) contributed 3,700 tons. 

Last week, CBL traded 3,000 HIR ACCUs at $36.40 and 700 generic ACCUs at $33.75.

The N-GEO Trailing instrument on CBL emerged as the most active spot contract, indicating continued appeal for the 2016-2017 vintage credits delivered through this contract. In contrast, CME Group’s CBL emissions futures saw a total volume of 2,695,000 tons. Its open interest reached 10,387,000 tons by the end of the week.

Pricing Trends for RECs in North American Market

Massachusetts solar markets took the lead in NEPOOL trading as the 3rd Qtr generation trading period commenced on Monday. NEPOOL stands for New England Power Pool. It’s a system for registering and tracking renewable energy generation and compliance with state and regional renewable energy regulations.

Notably, over 29,000 2023 solar carve-out II credits were matched on-screen, initiating at $260 and settling at $258.50.

In the same market, NEPOOL quad and dual qualified class I credits were initially traded at $39.75. However, subsequent offers saw a decline, resulting in quad-qualified credits settling at $39.20 and dual-qualified credits at $39.05.

Shifting to PJM markets, 6,730 2023 Virginia solar credits were successfully matched at $31.25. The PJM Market procures electricity to meet consumers’ demands both in real time and in the near term. 

In Pennsylvania tier I markets, a few transactions occurred, with 2024 credits trading at $31.75. Their 2023 counterparts were priced at a $0.25 discount. 

Additionally, 2,000 Maryland tier II credits were matched on-screen at $14.

These trading activities provide insights into the dynamic landscape of regional solar markets, showcasing fluctuations in credit values and volumes. The data reflects the ongoing developments and pricing trends for renewable energy credit markets in Massachusetts, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Maryland.

The table below shows the best bid and offer for select RECs with markets closing on Friday January 19.

Below is Xpansiv’s CBL standardized contracts key and the corresponding definition.

More information on the Xpansiv’s spot standardized contracts is in the Standard Instruments Program document on their website. Information on the CBL GEO futures contracts are available on the CME Group website

Existing Participants may log in here to take a closer look or list orders. 

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Nuclear Power to Break Global Records in 2025, IEA Predicts

In 2025, nuclear power generation is poised to reach an all-time high next year, says the International Energy Agency (IEA), due to increased investments in reactors to facilitate the transition to a low-carbon global economy. This forecast marks a resurgence of nuclear, bolstering efforts to reduce global carbon emissions. 

This surge in nuclear power aligns with the shift towards a low-carbon economy, where electricity demand is projected to rise. The transition is fuelled by the adoption of electric vehicles, heat pumps, and various low-carbon industrial processes that rely on electricity rather than traditional oil and gas sources.

Concurrently, renewable energy is projected to surpass coal as a primary power source in the early months of the upcoming year, according to IEA data. 

Nuclear Renaissance: Reaching Historic Peaks in 2025

Nuclear power plant output is projected to increase by around 3% in both the current year and the next. It would reach 2,915TWh and surpass the previous peak of 2,809TWh in 2021, according to the report

The IEA also anticipates an additional 1.5% growth in 2026, driven by the commissioning of new reactors in China and India.

The report further highlights the collective impact of expanding nuclear power and the rapid growth of renewable sources. Wind, solar, and other clean energy sources are expected to contribute significantly, with renewables accounting for about a third of global electricity generation by early next year.

This projection would displace fossil fuels from the electricity system. The agency also expects low-emission sources to meet the growing power demand over the next few years. This would lead to a record low share of global supply delivered by fossil fuel generators, at 54% in 2026. 

IEA’s Executive Director, Fatih Birol, underscored the significance of these trends in reducing carbon dioxide emissions from the power sector. The sector is currently the largest emitter globally. 

Birol attributed the positive developments to the substantial momentum behind renewables. This particularly involves the increasingly cost-effective solar energy and the resurgence of nuclear power, which is on track to reach historic highs by 2025. He said that:

“This is largely thanks to the huge momentum behind renewables, with ever cheaper solar leading the way, and support from the important comeback of nuclear power. While more progress is needed, and fast, these are very promising trends.”

Global Nuclear Expansion: 29 GW by 2026

Between 2024 and 2026, an additional 29 GW of new nuclear capacity would come online globally. Over half of them would be in China and India. 

There’s also anticipations on the commencement of commercial operations in new nuclear plants across various regions. Add to this the recovery of the French nuclear sector and anticipated restarts in Japan. Overall, the outlook for global nuclear generation foresees a nearly 10% increase in 2026 compared to 2023.

In 2022 and 2023, numerous countries strategically prioritized the introduction or expansion of nuclear power as a central component of their climate policy objectives, igniting a substantial resurgence of global interest in nuclear energy. 

RELATED: How Nuclear Energy in the U.S. Got Its Groove Back, Poised to Soar in 2024

The IEA’s updated Net Zero Roadmap indicates a more than 2x increase in nuclear energy by 2050. This serves as a complement to the deployment of renewables and alleviating the strain on critical mineral supplies.

While a minority of European countries are contemplating phasing out nuclear energy, several emerging economies and some advanced nations are actively planning to introduce or expand nuclear energy generation. The current growth in nuclear power generation is predominantly concentrated in Asia.

During COP28, a significant development occurred as more than 20 countries joined forces to sign a collective declaration aiming to triple nuclear power capacity by 2050. If globally implemented, this commitment would involve adding 740 GW of nuclear capacity to the existing stock of 370 GW.

READ MORE: The Big News from COP28: Nuclear Energy’s Triumph

As of November 2023, the World Nuclear Association reported that 68 GW was actively under construction. Moreover, an additional 109 GW is in the planning stage and a substantial 353 GW proposed. 

While these figures indicate substantial growth potential, achieving the declared objective by 2050 would need an extra 210 GW. That’s even when all the planned and proposed projects are successfully realized.

Leaders of Nuclear Growth: 50% of New Capacity

China and India jointly represent more than half of the anticipated 29 gigawatts of new nuclear capacity.

China, in particular, has experienced rapid growth in nuclear technology, elevating its generation share from 5% in 2014 to 16%. The country is aspiring to increase its installed nuclear capacity from approximately 56 GW to 70 GW by 2025.

Furthermore, the IEA notes that both China and Russia are expanding their influence in the nuclear sector. These two nations provide the technology for 70% of the reactors currently under construction. 

The IEA has further observed a renewed interest in nuclear energy in Europe and Americas, but nuclear projects in China are experiencing fewer delays compared to those in the former regions. Overall, here’s how nuclear energy fits into the policy agenda of selected countries. 

The International Energy Agency’s projections signal a notable resurgence in nuclear power generation, reaching an unprecedented high in 2025. With a 3% increase in output, nuclear energy is set to play a crucial role in the global transition to a low-carbon economy, complementing the growth of renewables. This forecast underlines nuclear power’s integral position in shaping the future energy landscape.

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Unleashing Africa’s Climate Finance with Billions of Carbon Credit Potential

Climate finance for the African continent witnessed a significant stride with the launch of the African Carbon Markets Initiative (ACMI), unlocking the region’s carbon credit potential. The initiative seeks to make climate finance available for African nations, fostering increased access to clean energy and sustainable development. 

The recent Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that the Jospong Group of Companies (JGC) has with EKI Energy Services signals a joint effort to accelerate carbon credit development in the region, specifically in Ghana. The collaboration aims to secure an impressive $1 billion in carbon credit financing in the West African nation.

Other countries in the region are also ramping up their efforts in developing their carbon credit markets, with Kenya and Nigeria taking the lead. 

Africa’s Carbon Quest: 300M Credits Annually by 2030

Championed by a 13-member steering committee comprising African leaders, chief executives, and industry specialists, ACMI aims to broaden the continent’s involvement in voluntary carbon markets. These markets serve as trading platforms, enabling individuals, businesses, and governments to finance projects that contribute to emission reduction.

ACMI aims to mobilize up to $100 billion carbon credits per year by 2050.

According to estimates, the African carbon markets are growing steadily as shown in the chart below, reaching almost 54 million tonnes of credits issued.

Chart from The Rockefeller Foundation

Several African countries, including Kenya and Nigeria have already expressed their intention to collaborate with the market.

The range of climate projects under consideration includes reforestation, renewable energy, carbon-removing agricultural practices, and the implementation of direct air capture technologies. Investors supporting these projects receive carbon credits—certificates enabling them to offset or compensate for their carbon emissions. 

The African Carbon Markets Initiative sets an ambitious target of generating 300 million new carbon credits annually by 2030. This goal is equivalent to the total number of credits issued globally in voluntary carbon markets in 2021. 

RELATED: UAE to Power Up African Carbon Credit Market with $450M Pledge

Jospong & EKI’s $1B Deal Sets New Standard

Jospong and EKI Energy’s carbon credit deal is a major development in scaling carbon markets in Ghana. EKI will play a crucial role by providing essential technical assistance for the successful implementation of the project. The partnership covers a 5-year period.

The JGC is a diversified holdings company operating across 14 sectors of the economy, including banking, automobile and equipment. The company’s operations extend to other African countries and Asia.

Jospong’s Chairman, Dr. Joseph Siaw Agyepong, expressed confidence in EKI Energy’s expertise in climate change, saying they’re the ideal partner for the venture. He further noted that:

“We are partnering with EKI Energy because of their experience, so they can hand-hold us and propel strong development in the sector.”

Mr. Manish Dabkara, EKI’s CEO, assured strong support from them in attracting carbon investments for Jospong. The Indian-based carbon credits developer and supplier has an impressive track record of supplying over 200 million carbon offsets. 

EKI Energy aims to create 1 billion carbon credits by 2027 and reach net zero by 2030. The Bombay Stock Exchange-listed company brings over 15 years of experience to the collaboration. Operating in 16 countries, EKI is a market leader in climate change, carbon offset solutions, and carbon asset management.

Below is the company’s project portfolio, covering various areas.

Nigeria’s $2.5 Billion Carbon Credit Opportunity

The West African country has been keen in positioning itself in the international carbon market. At COP27 climate summit in 2022, Ghana inked the first-ever voluntary cooperation involving ITMOs (Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes) with Switzerland.

ITMOs, also known as Article 6.2 credits, allow countries to buy or sell carbon credits with other countries.

The ITMO project will help thousands of rice farmers in Ghana to practice sustainable agriculture to reduce methane emissions. Apart from Ghana, other countries in the continent are also committed to develop carbon markets to help mitigate climate change. 

Nigeria, for instance, has been acknowledged for its gradual progress in establishing a carbon market framework. President Bola Tinubo announced at the COP28 climate conference that they’re to establish a special committee that will draft a national carbon market strategy. He highlighted the substantial $2.5 billion opportunity for the country within the ACMI.

RELATED: Nigeria Pioneers a Billion-Dollar Voluntary Carbon Market

The draft regulation would include an emissions trading scheme, a carbon registry, and a framework for high-integrity carbon credits. All these would contribute to the broader voluntary carbon market. 

Nigeria, committed to achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2060, faces a significant funding challenge to advance its climate strategy.

The recent initiative of the Western African nation will have a pivotal role in addressing the country’s extensive carbon credit potential. Nigeria needs a staggering amount of almost $2 billion to meet its net zero ambition. 

Kenya also has taken bold step in its carbon market regulations, particularly amending the country’s Climate Change Act in 2023. The Act introduces a framework for regulating carbon markets and establishes a Designated National Authority responsible for authorizing participants. This authority is also entrusted with maintaining a National Carbon Registry, containing information on carbon credits issued or transferred by Kenya and on carbon credit projects implemented to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The Act marks a positive step in creating, participating in, and regulating carbon markets in Kenya. As international investors already engage in various sectors in the country, the Act lays the foundation for future regulations that will provide finer details.

In a bid to tackle climate change challenges, the African nations are actively collaborating and supporting innovative financing. From Ghana’s $1 billion carbon credit deal with EKI Energy to Kenya and Nigeria’s supportive policies, the continent is on its way to drive climate action. 

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How to Find High-Quality Carbon Offsets

Are you looking for high-quality carbon offsets to address your harmful emissions? This guide will help you understand what’s offsetting all about, its benefits, and know what would be the best place to source the offsets. 

High quality carbon offsets not only help individuals and businesses reduce their carbon footprint, but they can also have a positive impact on local communities and biodiversity. By supporting projects that focus on renewable energy, reforestation, and sustainable agriculture, carbon offsets can contribute to the development of clean technologies and create employment opportunities. 

Additionally, investing in high-quality offsets provides a transparent and credible way to offset emissions, ensuring that the generated funds are effectively used for environmental conservation and social benefits.

Understanding Carbon Offsets

Carbon offsets are a way for your or your company or organization to voluntarily compensate for your carbon emissions. They allow you to invest in projects that reduce or remove an equivalent amount of CO2 from the air. 

The main goal of this voluntary carbon market (VCM) mechanism is to balance out the emissions produced in one place by supporting carbon reduction or removal activities somewhere else. They’re often used as complementary strategy to address emissions that are challenging to eliminate completely. 

When the reductions are verified, you then receive carbon offset credits. Each credit represents one metric ton of CO2 that has been either avoided or removed from the atmosphere.

By using these offsets, you can essentially cancel out your emissions. The idea is that the positive environmental impact of the offset project counterbalances the negative impact of the entity’s own carbon footprint.

Projections show that the VCM has to increase 15x and reach $50 billion by 2030 to achieve the Paris climate goals.

It’s important to note that while carbon offsets can be a valuable tool in the fight against climate change, they’re not a substitute for directly reducing emissions at the source. The primary goal should always be to minimize carbon footprints through sustainable practices and technologies.

READ MORE: How Do Carbon Offset Credits Work?

Why Choose High-Quality Carbon Offsets

Choosing high-quality carbon offsets is crucial for several reasons, as it ensures the effectiveness and integrity of offsetting efforts. And as the number of these credits issued to increase massively, you have to be more vigilant about the quality of the offsets you buy. 

Choosing reputable projects with rigorous verification processes ensures that the claimed reductions are genuine. The high-quality offsets they produce make sure that the reductions are not counted more than once. 

Moreover, the best carbon offsets go beyond just reducing emissions; they also bring about environmental and social benefits.

For example, reforestation projects can enhance biodiversity and provide livelihoods for local communities. Choosing high-quality offsets from these initiatives allows you or your company to contribute to broader sustainability goals beyond just carbon mitigation.

There’s a catch though: you need to assure that the seller or provider of the offsets is credible. 

Assessing the Credibility of Carbon Offset Providers

Weighing credibility involves looking at various factors such as the provider’s track record, transparency, adherence to standards, and the quality of their offset projects.

There are various standards and certifications that can guide you to the best place to buy high quality carbon offsets. These primarily include the Gold Standard, the Verified Carbon Standard (VCS) of Verra, American Carbon Registry, Climate Action Reserve, and Plan Vivo

Verra’s VCS – focuses on GHG reduction attributes and doesn’t require projects to have additional environmental or social benefits.  
Gold Standard (GS) – created by the WWF, focuses on projects that provide lasting social, economic, and environmental benefits. 
Climate Action Reserve (CAR) – a certification body or registry for the North American carbon credit market.
American Carbon Registry (ACR) – the regulatory body of the California cap-and-trade offset credit market.
Plan Vivo – focuses on projects that support local communities and smallholders in developing nations.

Choosing offsets from projects that adhere to these recognized standards provides assurance of their quality.

READ MORE: Who Certifies Carbon Credits?

Remember that the ultimate goal of carbon offset credits is to reduce the amount of carbon emitted into the atmosphere. Each carbon credit certification gives the owner the right to emit one ton of CO2 or other greenhouse gasses.

A carbon offset credit becomes certified only by going through the specified processes or procedures set by the certifying standards. This is what separates a high-quality and real carbon credit from other credits swarming the market.  

An example of a carbon credit certification process by Verra’s VCS program is shown below.

Another thing to keep in mind is the provider’s project documentation practice. This refers to the detailed information and documentation associated with carbon offset projects. This includes project plans, methodologies, emission reduction calculations, and other relevant documentation. 

Transparent and comprehensive project documentation is vital for assessing the integrity of offset projects. It allows you and other stakeholders, including third-party verifiers, to understand how emissions reductions are achieved, measured, and verified.

Reputable carbon offset projects undergo third-party verification by independent organizations. This process adds an extra layer of credibility and transparency, assuring you that the claimed emissions reductions are accurate. It confirms that providers are delivering on their promises to help mitigate climate change. 

RELATED: Who Verifies Carbon Credits?

So always look for projects certified by recognized standards and certification bodies – it’s non-negotiable.

Here are the top carbon offset certification and standard bodies to consider.

Researching Carbon Offset Projects 

Finding the right carbon project for your offsetting needs involves a range of factors, including project types, geographic considerations, project longevity, and other relevant aspects. It may not be that easy and quick given the plethora of projects available today. But, here’s how you can find the right offsetting partner. 

Different projects may have varying impacts based on their geographic location. For example, reforestation projects in one region may have different ecological and social implications compared to a renewable energy project in another. Considering the geographic context is important for understanding the broader environmental and social implications of offset projects.

BlueSource, now Anew, is widely known for providing offset credits from improved forest management practices, carbon capture, and other projects. It covers the U.S. Canada and Europe, with an environmental commodities portfolio across five continents. 

Under its core project development expertise, forestry, Anew follows these steps for a project to be eligible for offset crediting:

Finite Carbon is another big name in the field of forest improvement projects. With the developer’s wide coverage, their projects cover major forest type from the Appalachians to coastal Alaska. 

Another provider, C-Quest Capital (CQC), creates high impact carbon offsets through three platforms: cleaner cooking, efficient lighting, and sustainable energy. It aims to transform the lives of families in poorer communities worldwide. 

You also have to consider project longevity, which refers to the sustainability and durability of carbon offset projects over time. This involves assessing how well a project can maintain its emissions reductions or removals over an extended period. 

Longevity is crucial to ensuring that the offsetting efforts have a lasting impact on reducing carbon emissions. Factors such as ongoing maintenance, community engagement, and adaptability to changing conditions contribute to the overall project longevity.

But before you pick a carbon offset provider, there are some things you have to keep in mind first. You need to calculate and verify your carbon footprint and learn the things to avoid so you’ll emerge successfully. 

Calculating and Verifying Carbon Footprint

Quantifying your carbon footprint involves assessing emissions from various sources, such as energy consumption, transportation, and manufacturing. The role of the verification process is to ensure the accuracy and reliability of your calculated emissions data.

Measuring emissions is a critical step in calculating your carbon footprint. This involves quantifying the amount of greenhouse gasses such as CO2 released into the atmosphere by certain activities.

Different methodologies and tools are used for measuring emissions from different sources, and accuracy is critical for reliable calculation. This step often involves using emission factors, direct measurements, or modeling techniques.

The more complex your organization or company’s activities are, the harder it is to identify the sources of emissions. But most often, it involves the following three emissions scopes.

Here are also the common types of emissions sources under each scope that can help guide you identify them.

After calculating your carbon footprint, the next step is to choose appropriate offsets to compensate for the identified emissions. This is when you can now select carbon offset projects that align with your values and goals. 

 

Go here if you want to know more about how to comprehensively calculate your carbon emissions, with specific examples provided. 

Apart from considering the major things when assessing providers of high-quality carbon offsets, you also have to watch for the common pitfalls. Identifying and understanding these pitfalls is crucial for making informed decisions and ensuring that your offsetting efforts are effective.

Common Pitfalls to Avoid

First red flag is lack of transparency. It refers to situations where carbon offset projects don’t provide clear and comprehensive information about their activities. 

Without sufficient information, it becomes challenging to verify the legitimacy of emissions reductions, project methodologies, and the overall impact of the offsets. Transparency, especially among intermediaries in the VCM, is critical. 

Next, pay attention to additionality – it’s a key concept defining a high quality carbon offset. It ensures that the emissions reductions achieved by a project are additional to what would have occurred without the funding. 

Concerns about additionality arise when there’s doubt about whether the supported project is genuinely making a positive environmental impact. Forest carbon offsets have been the target of scrutiny over additionality since last year. 

READ MORE: Do Deforestation Projects Really Reduce Carbon?

Lastly, you should be aware of double counting. It happens when the same emissions reductions are claimed by multiple entities, leading to an overestimation of the overall impact. 

This could arise where there’s insufficient oversight in the carbon offset market. For instance, you could have bought high-quality carbon offsets from a reforestation project but the developer sold them to another buyer. Those same offsets are double-counted. 

Thus, robust accounting and adherence to established standards are crucial to avoid double counting. Addressing this and the other pitfalls is essential for you to be confident that the carbon offsets you support are of high quality. 

Conclusion

In the realm of climate action, the quest for high-quality carbon offsets takes center stage. They offer you and other climate conscious entities a powerful tool to mitigate your carbon footprint. And as the demand for these offsets continues to surge, it becomes important to understand their role in fostering environmental and social benefits. 

By choosing reputable projects and assessing the credibility of offset providers through recognized standards, you can ensure the quality of the offset credits. Ultimately, the journey towards high-quality carbon offsets propels us together closer to achieving the ambitious Paris Agreement climate goals.

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Green Manufacturing Startups Secured Over $10 Billion in Funding

Carbon-intensive practices likely come from manufacturing, where both mass-produced goods and the associated production processes contribute significantly to CO₂ emissions. As such, there has been a growing interest among founders and venture capitalists in greener manufacturing solutions. 

Despite a more subdued funding environment, the space gained traction. It witnessed over $10 billion in global investments across substantial funding rounds, as per Crunchbase analysis. 

Crunchbase’s close examination of the data reveals prominent sectors and investment themes within greener manufacturing. Some key areas that stand out include battery recycling and the development of green steel. 

The following list highlights significant financings that showcase the diverse range of investments within this burgeoning sector. Three areas particularly stood out: 

Battery Startups Sparking a Sustainable Revolution  

Battery funding has experienced significant growth in recent quarters, primarily fueled by the increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). The interest in funding startups developing technologies for longer-lasting, more affordable, and environmentally friendly batteries has surged. 

RELATED: Battery Startups Attract Mega-Investments

Europe has emerged as a hub for battery-related funding, with notable investments going to Verkor. This French startup specializes in low-carbon battery manufacturing. Another company based in Stockholm and known for its lithium-ion batteries, Northwolt, got massive funding. 

Just recently, the European Commission has approved Germany to provide €902 million ($987mn) in state aid to Northvolt. This marks the first-ever application of a landmark rule allowing EU nations to be competitive with foreign subsidies to prevent investments from diverting outside the region. 

Battery recycling has also become a prominent focus, with substantial funding rounds for companies like the Nevada-based Redwood Materials. Ascend Elements, based in Massachusetts, specializing in sustainable materials recovered from discarded lithium-ion batteries, also got a substantial investment. 

According to market research, the demand for battery power will rise to 2,035 GWh by 2030, an 11-fold increase from the 2020 level. The majority of this demand comes from the transportation sector alone. When it comes to size, the global battery market is projected to go over $475 billion by 2032. 

Transportation Startups Redefining Mobility

Several funded startups are directing their efforts toward developing more environmentally friendly transportation modes and components.

For instance, Infinitum, based in Texas, has secured over $350 million in funding to develop engines that claim to be 50% lighter and smaller than traditional iron-core motors. The company envisions applications in mobility and has garnered significant interest for its innovative approach.

San Francisco-based Glydways focuses on creating small, autonomous EVs for public transport. The startup has secured over $90 million in funding by contributing to the evolution of sustainable and efficient transportation solutions.

Electrification of the global transportation sector has been ramping up as national governments push for supporting policies. 

The United States government has shown its commitment to reshaping the transportation landscape in the country by providing a $623 million grant to propel the growth of EVs.

READ MORE: USA’s $623 Million Boost for EV Infrastructure & Ireland’s Lithium Quest

As per S&P Global projections, lithium-ion battery capacity would reach 6.5 TWh by the decade’s end. Of that, the EV transportation sector will win over a market share of 93%, standing at 3.7 TWh. 

Building a Greener Tomorrow

Another activity that’s widely recognized as one of the most carbon-polluting is construction. The building industry is responsible for around 39% of the global greenhouse gas emissions.

Unsurprisingly, there has been an increased interest from investors in startups that adopt greener approaches in building and materials

Investors are more willing to support environmentally conscious startups addressing various aspects of construction materials. 

Oakland-based Mighty Buildings has secured over $150 million in funding for its innovative 3D-printed panels and materials. The company claimed it the design can facilitate faster construction with a reduced carbon footprint.

In the realm of glass technology, California-based Halio is developing dynamic glass that allows windows to change tint. This innovation would result in energy savings in heating and cooling costs. 

Some startups are also focusing on manufacturing sustainable building materials to build carbon-negative houses. They’re changing how the world builds by introducing alternative materials that reduce or eliminate the use of carbon-intensive concrete. 

RELATED: NBA Legend Rick Fox Builds World’s First Carbon Negative Home

As substantial investments flow into green manufacturing startups, it’s evident that these ventures are capital-intensive, infrastructure-heavy, and carry some risks. 

The biggest challenge is to develop manufacturing processes that minimize environmental impact and carbon pollution. Addressing this concern presents an opportunity for substantial rewards. The positive outcomes in sustainability and reduced environmental harm will far outweigh the risks and investments associated with manufacturing startups.

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