Doubling SAF Production by 2025: IATA’s Push for Greener Skies Still Faces Big Hurdles

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has announced a major target: doubling global Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production to 2 million tonnes (2.5 billion liters) by 2025. That would mark real progress for a sector under increasing scrutiny for its carbon emissions. Yet even with that increase, SAF would still make up just 0.7% of total aviation fuel use—a sliver of what’s needed to decarbonize the skies.

The aviation sector accounts for nearly 2% of global CO₂ emissions, and SAF is currently seen as the most viable near-term solution to cut that number. Unlike conventional jet fuel, SAF is derived from renewable feedstocks like waste oils and organic waste, and can reduce lifecycle emissions by up to 80%.

Still, airlines are far from breaking their dependency on fossil fuel. Today, 99% of aviation fuel remains petroleum-based, and without major policy interventions, that may not change fast enough.

Why Scaling SAF Remains So Hard—and Expensive

IATA further explains that sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) costs about five times more than regular jet fuel. This high price comes from the complex process of making SAF, which uses advanced technology and hard-to-find raw materials. On top of that, airlines face extra costs to meet government rules in places like the EU and the UK. For example, European airlines may have to spend an extra $1.7 billion just to follow SAF requirements.

Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, said,

“While it is encouraging that SAF production is expected to double to 2 million tonnes in 2025, that is just 0.7% of aviation’s total fuel needs. And even that relatively small amount will add $4.4 billion globally to the fuel bill. The pace of progress in ramping up production and gaining efficiencies to reduce costs must accelerate.”

For smaller airlines, these costs are especially punishing. That’s why IATA and industry leaders are calling for stronger government support—tax credits, subsidies, and policy reforms that can level the playing field with fossil fuels.

Without such support, there’s a risk that SAF production could stagnate right when it needs to ramp up.

Walsh further says,

“This highlights the problem with the implementation of mandates before there are sufficient market conditions and before safeguards are in place against unreasonable market practices that raise the cost of decarbonization. Raising the cost of the energy transition that is already estimated to be a staggering $4.7 trillion should not be the aim or the result of decarbonization policies. Europe needs to realize that its approach is not working and find another way.”

• READ MORE: ICAO Unveils Finvest Hub to Drive SAF Funding and Net Zero Aviation 

Government Support: The Missing Link?

Progress is visible in some regions. The Biden administration has launched green aviation programs in the U.S., though many in the sector say the funding and guarantees still fall short. Meanwhile, Norway and Sweden are setting the pace with robust incentives that make SAF more accessible and affordable.

These countries show that smart policy can align environmental and economic goals. Their models could be copied elsewhere, especially in emerging markets where aviation growth is exploding.

IATA urges governments to focus on three key priorities:

1. Fixing the policy imbalance: Redirecting a portion of the $1 trillion in annual fossil fuel subsidies could boost SAF economics dramatically.

2. Building integrated energy strategies: A long-term plan must ensure SAF gets a fair slice of the renewable energy supply and infrastructure.

3. Supporting CORSIA: IATA wants more Eligible Emissions Units (EEUs) available under the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). So far, only Guyana has made its carbon credits available to airlines under the scheme.

• RELATED: Verra Launches CORSIA Label Guidance for Aviation Carbon Credits 

Building the SAF Market: IATA’s Initiatives

To help scale up the SAF market, IATA is supporting two key programs:

• SAF Registry (via CADO): A global system to track SAF usage and emissions reductions. It ensures compliance with standards like CORSIA and the EU ETS.

• SAF Matchmaker: A platform that connects airlines seeking SAF with producers who have it, helping both sides find better deals and drive volume.

Together, these tools aim to bring more transparency and efficiency to a market that’s still in its infancy.

The Global SAF Market in 2030: A Long Climb Ahead

Key trends shaping the SAF market:

• High prices continue to slow adoption

• Investor interest is rising, especially in new tech like waste-to-fuel systems that could cut costs

• Policy action will determine how fast production scales

With the right mix of investment and regulation, SAF could become cost-competitive with fossil fuel sooner than many expect.

India: A Growing Aviation Power Makes a SAF Play

India is stepping into the spotlight with bold SAF goals. As the world’s third-largest oil consumer and third-largest aviation market, India has launched the Global Biofuels Alliance to accelerate the adoption of alternative fuels, including SAF.

The country aims for a 2% SAF blend in international flights by 2028. To reach this goal, India plans to offer guaranteed pricing, capital support, and technical standards.

IATA is partnering with ISMA (Indian Sugar & Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association) and Praj Industries to guide India on feedstock sustainability and lifecycle assessments—critical steps toward building a globally recognized SAF ecosystem.

Can the Aviation Industry Afford to Go Green?

While the goal to double SAF production is commendable, cost remains the industry’s biggest concern. Airlines operate on razor-thin margins and can’t absorb high fuel costs without passing them on to passengers.

What’s needed is a system-wide alignment:

• Governments must provide financial support through subsidies and grants
• Airlines must commit to long-term SAF purchase agreements
• Investors must back scalable, cost-cutting tech
• Consumers must favor low-carbon travel options

The stakes are high, but so is the potential. SAF offers the most immediate path to decarbonize long-haul aviation, where electric or hydrogen options won’t be viable anytime soon.

Doubling SAF output to 2 million tonnes by 2025 is a strong step. But to meet net-zero goals by 2050, the world needs to go far beyond. That means bold policies, faster tech innovation, and deeper collaboration between governments, airlines, and energy producers.

• READ MORE: Boeing’s Big Move: Boosting EU Aviation with Norsk e-Fuel’s SAF – Exclusive Insights from Boeing’s Regional Sustainability Director, Steve Gillard

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