Bloomberg Outlook 2024

According to the Bloomberg EV Outlook Report, the global electric vehicle (EV) market in 2024 shows varied progress across different regions and segments. Most notably, while overall EV sales are increasing, some markets are slowing, and many automakers have delayed their EV targets. 

We crunched the report and have the following key takeaways, crucial for everyone interested in the industry to know.

Which Regions Are Charging Ahead in EV Sales?

The EV sales growth slowdown varies globally. China, India, and France continue to see healthy growth, while Germany, Italy, and the US face challenges. Meanwhile, Japan’s market is hampered by a lack of EV commitment from major carmakers and no new mini-car models. 

Despite the slowdown, global growth in 2024 aligns with BNEF’s forecasts. Some automakers have reduced their electrification targets, citing high production costs, while others, like Kia and Volvo, show strong results.

Kia aims for 1.6 million EV sales by 2030 and plans to launch an affordable EV3 SUV. Remarkably, Volvo’s EV sales surged 53% in April 2024, driven by the EX30 model.

BNEF projects that global passenger EV sales will grow, though at a slower pace, rising from 13.9 million in 2023 to over 30 million by 2027. The annual growth rate will average 21%, down from 61% between 2020 and 2023. 

By 2027, EVs will comprise 33% of global new passenger vehicle sales, with China and Europe leading at 60% and 41%, respectively. 

The Nordics will reach 90%, while Germany, the UK, and France exceed 40%. The US will see 29% EV sales, slowed by election-related uncertainties. Japan lags behind, but emerging economies like Brazil and India will experience rapid growth. 

Overall, the global EV fleet will expand to over 132 million by 2027, up from 41 million in 2023.

The long-term market outlook for electric vehicles is positive despite near-term challenges. 

Economic improvements are expected to drive continued growth, with EVs reaching 45% of global passenger vehicle sales by 2030 and 73% by 2040. However, Southeast Asia, India, and Brazil will lag behind the global average and require stronger regulatory support.

RELATED: New Monthly EV Sales Record to Kickstart 2024

Decarbonizing Commercial Vehicles

When it comes to decarbonizing commercial vehicles, including vans, trucks, and buses, electrification is also accelerating. 

Electric light-duty delivery vans and trucks are quickly gaining market share in China, South Korea, and parts of Europe, while the US still lags. As seen below, the global e-van market will near one-third of sales by 2030, reaching two-thirds by 2040. 

Electric heavy trucks will become economically viable for most uses by 2030, with initial adoption in urban areas and later expansion to long-haul routes. 

On the other hand, fuel cell trucks will remain viable for some applications, though their future is less certain. Zero-emission trucks will make up 18% of global sales by 2030 and 43% by 2040.

Who Will Drive the Future of Electric Trucks?

New environmental policies in Europe and the US will drive the adoption of electric and fuel-cell trucks. EU CO2 targets suggest high electrification rates by 2030. For instance, municipal buses are rapidly electrifying, expected to exceed 60% of sales by 2030 and 83% by 2040. 

However, global road transport is not yet on a net zero trajectory, and protectionist policies could hinder progress. To achieve zero emissions by 2050, combustion vehicle sales must end by around 2038, with leading markets phasing out earlier, per BNEF analysis. 

The Nordic countries are the only ones projected to fully phase out combustion vehicles before 2038 in the Economic Transition Scenario (ETS). Therefore, governments need to balance industrial strategies with maintaining competition and affordability in the EV market. Stronger regulatory pushes are necessary to bridge the gap between the Economic Transition Scenario and the Net Zero Scenario.

Significant spending is required for both scenarios. 

The cumulative value of EV sales across all segments will reach $9 trillion by 2030 and $63 trillion by 2050 in the Economic Transition Scenario. In the Net Zero Scenario, this value jumps to over $98 trillion by 2050. 

Governments are fiercely competing to develop local supply chains, with EVs and batteries remaining central to industrial policies for decades.

How Lithium Batteries Are Revolutionizing the EV Market

Lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries are dominating the EV market, reducing the need for metals like nickel and manganese. Competitive pricing is driving improvements in LFP technology, including super-fast charging, cold temperature performance, and higher energy densities. 

LFP is projected to capture over 50% of the global passenger EV market within two years, particularly in China, where many LFP cell manufacturers are based. This shift results in lower-than-expected consumption of nickel and manganese, with 2025 estimates for nickel at 517,000 metric tons and manganese at 131,000 metric tons.

Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) are experiencing a resurgence, driven mainly by China, which became the largest PHEV market in 2022. The average electric range of PHEVs reached 80 km in 2023, with some models in China exceeding 100 km. 

Chinese PHEV battery packs are nearly twice the size of those in the US and Europe, often designed to meet fuel economy regulations. While PHEVs are seen as a bridge to a zero-emission future, their effectiveness is questionable. If they replace BEVs and aren’t fully utilized in electric mode, they could increase oil demand, undermining their environmental benefits.

READ MORE: Lithium Prices and The Insights into the EV Market’s Pulse

Charging into the Future: What Does a Fully Electric Fleet Mean?

A fully electric vehicle global fleet could consume twice the electricity the US did in 2023, per BNEF market outlook. By 2050, in the Net Zero Scenario, an all-electric vehicle fleet will require about 8,313 TWh of electricity, double the US’s 2023 consumption. 

Despite the increase, EVs can support energy system electrification through smart charging and flexible pricing. The EV charging industry must rapidly mature, requiring $1.6 to $2.5 trillion in infrastructure, installation, and maintenance investment by 2050. 

The adoption of EVs and electrification of commercial vehicles are on the rise, driven by new policies and technological advancements in battery technology. However, significant investments in infrastructure and regulatory support are crucial to sustain this momentum and achieve long-term environmental goals.

The post Is the EV Market’s Momentum Slowing? appeared first on Carbon Credits.

Microsoft has entered into a groundbreaking agreement with BTG Pactual Timberland Investment Group (TIG), committing to provide 8 million carbon removal credits, marking the largest carbon dioxide removal transaction on record. 

In a separate deal, Microsoft also agreed to buy 40,000 agricultural soil carbon credits from Indigo Ag. It’s also the largest-ever purchase of an individual buyer from the ag company.

A Landmark Carbon Offset Agreement

Carbon offsets allow companies to compensate for some of their greenhouse gas emissions by funding projects that reduce emissions elsewhere. Each carbon offset credit corresponds to reducing one tonne of CO2 emissions and can be applied toward reaching corporate climate targets.

Last year, companies retired or used almost 180 million metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent in their climate commitments. 

The agreement between TIG and Microsoft involves the provision of up to 8 million nature-based carbon removal credits by 2043. Data from MSCI Carbon Markets confirms this as the largest transaction of its kind. 

The credits are part of TIG’s extensive reforestation and restoration strategy in Latin America. It involves a $1 billion initiative designed to conserve and restore deforested areas, including the crucial Cerrado biome in Brazil. 

The strategy aims to restore 135,000 hectares of natural forests and develop sustainable commercial tree farms on an additional 135,000 hectares.

TIG has already made significant progress, investing in 37,000 hectares, planting over 7 million seedlings, and beginning the restoration of 2,600 hectares of natural forest. 

Gerrity Lansing, Head of TIG, highlighted the importance of this groundbreaking carbon offset deal, saying:

“Institutional investors have a critical role to play in delivering nature-based solutions at a scale that matters for climate and biodiversity. The scale of the native forest restoration and sustainable timber production that TIG seeks to deliver with our reforestation strategy is what enables a carbon removal credit transaction of this size.”

Microsoft’s Unwavering Support for Carbon Removal

Dr. M. Sanjayan, Conservation International CEO, emphasized that Microsoft’s commitment demonstrates the possibility of balancing ecological restoration with economic productivity. 

The transaction aligns with Microsoft’s ambitious goal to be carbon-negative by 2030 and to remove all historical emissions by 2050. The tech giant aims to eliminate its Scope 1 and 2 emissions through various means, including:

Increasing energy efficiency, 
Decarbonizing its operations, and 
Achieving 100% renewable energy by 2025. 

The company achieved a 6% reduction in its Scope 1 and 2 emissions from the 2020 baseline year. 

Source: Microsoft website

However, the Scope 3 (value chain emissions) sources account for over 96% of Microsoft’s total emissions. The majority of these emissions come from purchased goods and services, capital goods, downstream, and the use of sold products. Reducing value chain emissions involves investing in large-scale, high-quality carbon removal projects. 

Brian Marrs, Senior Director for Energy & Carbon Removal at Microsoft, noted that achieving these goals requires innovative projects that can scale carbon removal swiftly and sustainably. He highlighted that this nature-based project exemplifies how such efforts can deliver significant carbon removal while restoring vital ecosystems.

In a related effort, Microsoft recently purchased 970,000 forest carbon removal credits from Anew Climate, further demonstrating its commitment to large-scale carbon removal projects.

The carbon credits under Anew agreement will come from improved forest management (IFM) projects across forestlands owned by Aurora Sustainable Lands, Acadian Timber Corp., and Baskahegan Company. IFM projects offer benefits such as avoiding net carbon emissions and removing carbon from the atmosphere. 

The Anew projects will create registry-recognized carbon removal credits generated from tree growth within its forestry portfolio.

Additionally, Microsoft, alongside Google, Meta, and Salesforce, has launched a 20-million-ton advance market commitment (AMC) collaboration to support the development and expansion of the nature-based carbon removal market.

READ MORE: Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Salesforce Launch “Symbiosis”, Pledging for 20M Tons of Nature-Based CDR Credits

Advancing Soil Carbon Removals

Most recently, Microsoft has agreed to purchase 40,000 agricultural soil-based carbon credits from Indigo Ag’s third carbon crop. This transaction marks the largest number of credits ever delivered by Indigo Ag to a single buyer.

These soil-based credits are verified and issued by the Soil Enrichment Protocol of the Climate Action Reserve, one of the world’s most trusted independent carbon registries.

Microsoft has chosen Indigo Ag’s carbon program to introduce soil carbon removals into its climate action portfolio. This agreement highlights the demand for robust, science-backed agriculture soil-based credits and their critical role in climate action, reflecting the increasing maturity of the voluntary carbon market.

Indigo Ag’s Carbon program is supported by the company’s scientifically peer-reviewed measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) capabilities, ensuring the robustness, integrity, and durability of credits. This enables growers to realize the value of adopting and sustaining new practices that generate these credits.

Indigo Ag Carbon Program

Beyond its carbon program, Indigo Ag deploys its MRV capabilities to help companies in the agri-food value chain reduce their Scope 3 emissions. It can also help them produce low carbon intensity crop feedstocks for biofuels.

To date, Indigo’s Sustainability Solutions have reduced and removed over 340,000 tons of GHG emissions and saved over 19 billion gallons of water used in agriculture.

YOU MIGHT ALSO LIKE: Indigo Ag Sets Record with Third Carbon Crop, Sequestering Over 163K Tons of CO2

Dean Banks, CEO of Indigo Ag, remarked:

“Today’s announcement is a major milestone for Indigo’s Carbon program and our increasing range of ag-based sustainability solutions. Microsoft is a leader in corporate climate action, a highly influential player in carbon removals and shares our commitment to support the transition to a more resilient and sustainable agriculture system.”

The landmark transactions between Microsoft and TIG as well as Indigo Ag underscore the potential for significant climate action through nature-based solutions. By advancing carbon removal at scale, Microsoft is paving the way for a more sustainable and low-carbon future.

The post Microsoft Strikes 2 Record-Breaking Carbon Credit Deals appeared first on Carbon Credits.

The European Union’s (EU) upcoming carbon border tax is causing waves of anxiety among British green energy producers. As per the new directive, “British wind and solar farms exporting power to continental Europe from 2026 could face CO2 fees, despite producing no emissions, unless the UK and EU agree to amend the carbon border tax.”

Thus, industry leaders fear that this new policy could penalize the UK’s green energy sector. They are apprehensive that their efforts to combat climate change could be undermined, potentially disrupting trade relationships.

What is the Carbon Border Tax?

The EU’s carbon border tax, officially known as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), is designed to prevent “carbon leakage”. This happens when companies shift production to countries with weaker climate regulations, thereby undermining global efforts to reduce emissions. The tax aims to level the playing field by imposing fees on imported goods from countries with less stringent climate policies.

Will the EU CBAM Impact British Renewable Exports?

A few days ago, Reuters reported that industry experts revealed how charges outlined in a little-known clause of the CO2 levy law could impact the revenues of renewable energy projects in the UK. This could further add to already-high EU power prices and even lead to higher emissions.

Andy Berman, deputy director of the industry group Energy UK pointed out that it’s a two-way problem. She added,

“(It) disincentivizes clean power in the UK at the moment in which we’re trying to ramp up the provision of clean power, and it’s going to increase (power) prices in northern Europe.”

Catherine Stewart, the UK Treasury’s deputy director for trade policy also expressed her views on EU’s tax policy by stating,

“It is an issue that we are conscious of and one that we have raised, that the UK has raised, with the EU.”

Despite the UK’s commitment to reducing emissions and its robust green energy sector, industry leaders fear that the carbon border tax might negatively impact British companies. The concern is that the tax will be applied to all imports, regardless of the exporting country’s green credentials and carbon footprint.

source: Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism – European Commission (Europa.eu)

Let’s elaborate on the potential impact on the renewable industry and trade relations at large.

Economic Feasibility at Risk

Analysts warn that the additional costs could render it “uneconomic” to export surplus clean power from Britain to Europe, especially during periods of low demand, high renewable generation, and low power prices.

Aurora Energy Research’s analysis, shared with Reuters, indicates:  

Up to 3 GWh of renewable power could be curtailed by 2030 if the fee discourages exports. This capacity is enough to supply 2,000 homes annually.
Adding a tax on exports essentially reduces the profit margin every time exports occur. By 2030, the carbon border fee could reduce the revenue British renewable projects earn for their power by 5%.

The research firm highlighted key facts about the renewable capacity buildout based on government policy and market forces.

1. Increasing power demand

Europe aims to decarbonize and achieve Net Zero emissions by 2050, primarily by electrifying its economy and expanding renewable energy to cut emissions. Growing demand for Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) boosts investment in renewables. Enhanced energy efficiency lowers power demand.

2. Strong policy support and Government ambition

Government ambition pushes deploying renewables and robust policy support fosters investor confidence. Sudden policy changes or lack of support can harm investor confidence in renewables within a country.

3. Rising fuel and carbon prices

High gas prices have led to a switch back to coal generation. New market players have increased speculation and volatility, a trend expected to continue. Independent Commodity Intelligence Services (ICIS) estimates carbon prices will reach €90 per tonne by 2030.

4. Phase-out of thermal capacity

As Europe phases out coal and older, unabated gas assets to meet decarbonization goals, it creates opportunities for low-carbon alternatives to meet rising power demand. The retirement of thermal capacity strains system requirements like frequency and voltage control, which cannot be fully met by renewables alone.

Impact on Wholesale Prices and Emissions

Market Screener has reported two interesting analyses:

Aurora Research: The company analyzed the consequence of the reduction in cheap British electricity exports. It can potentially spike wholesale power prices by up to 4% in markets like Ireland and Northern Ireland which rely heavily on UK imports.

AFRY Services: The research firm indicated that if European countries increase coal and gas power generation to cover the shortfall, CO2 emissions could rise by 13 million tonnes annually. This increase is equivalent to the emissions of 8 million cars.

The figure shows that: Failure to remove renewables barriers leads to 80% higher CO2 price in 2030 significantly raising wholesale electricity prices for European industry & consumers.

sources: Aurora Energy Research, EIKON, S&P

MUST READ: UEFA’s Green Goals: $7.6M Climate Fund for EURO 2024 Carbon Footprint (carboncredits.com)

Can Renewable Exports Avoid CO2 Fees?

A European Commission spokesperson stated that renewable power exports could avoid CO2 fees if they meet specific criteria and prove their origin. However, industry experts argue this is challenging. They assume that most electricity traded across interconnectors is anonymous, making it difficult to calculate the carbon content.

They have also voiced concerns, stating the tax penalizes sectors leading the fight against climate change. RenewableUK stressed the need for a system that rewards green energy credentials without unnecessary barriers. They called for policies that consider the actual carbon footprint of imports rather than applying a blanket approach.

Linking Carbon Markets: A Viable Solution

One potential solution is linking the EU and UK carbon markets, which would exempt UK power producers from the tax. 

RELATED: UK Reveals Move for a Carbon Border Tax in 2027 (carboncredits.com)

Alistair McGirr, SSE’s Group Head of Policy and Advocacy noted,  

“Linking the carbon markets could prevent UK exporters from paying a tax to the EU that could otherwise benefit the UK budget.”

Despite this suggestion, neither Brussels nor London has shown enthusiasm for the idea.

Former UK climate change minister Graham Stuart also spoke in favor of linking carbon markets that could be explored under the post-Brexit Trade and Cooperation Agreement. The European Commission spokesperson added that the EU is open to linking its carbon market with others, but it “must stem from a mutual wish from both parties.”

Green Enhancing, Not Green Washing: Bolstering EU’s Carbon Markets

We discovered a significant aspect of tax implication on industry and consumers from the latest press release of the Council of EU.

Notably, the Council adopted its position on the Green Claims Directive to tackle greenwashing and help consumers make informed greener choices. The directive sets minimum requirements for substantiating, communicating, and verifying environmental claims. This move follows a 2020 study revealing that over half of environmental claims are vague, misleading, or unfounded. Thus, reliable, comparable, and verifiable claims are essential for informed consumer decisions.

Alain Maron, Minister of the Government of the Brussels-Capital Region, responsible for climate change, environment, energy, and participatory democracy has commented on this move, 

“Today, we reached an important agreement to fight greenwashing by setting rules on clear, sufficient and evidence-based information on the environmental characteristics of products and services. Our aim is to help European citizens to make well-founded green choices.”

Organizations like Anew Climate, Rubicon Carbon, and others, hailed the EU’s progress on the Green Claims Directive (GCD) but called for further action to ensure it supports transparent and credible green claims, vital for achieving net zero. Key recommendations include:

Reliable Green Claims: Ensure claims are reliable, comparable, and verifiable across the EU to prevent greenwashing.
Simplified Framework: Avoid unnecessary administrative burdens and support the use of all types of carbon credits, not just EU-originated removal credits.
Uniformity in Standards: Align with existing frameworks like the CRCF and ICVCM to avoid overlap and enhance international consistency.

They collectively believe adopting these measures will boost voluntary private-sector investment in climate mitigation. It would also advance the Green Deal and strengthen Europe’s competitive market.

source: EU-CBAM

This analysis emphasizes the need for dialogue between UK and EU policymakers to ensure the tax does not sabotage the global fight against climate change. Furthermore, a balanced approach is crucial for British Green Energy to recognize its efforts while minimizing trade disruption. Overall, the future of UK-EU trade and the global climate agenda hinges on achieving this equilibrium.

FURTHER READING: EU Commission Backs Germany’s Renewable Hydrogen Plan with $380M Funding  • Carbon Credits

The post EU’s Latest Carbon Border Tax Sparks Concerns for British Green Energy appeared first on Carbon Credits.

As Canada strides towards its net zero pledge, the University of British Columbia has unveiled the Smart Hydrogen Energy District (SHED), a $23 million facility dedicated to advancing hydrogen infrastructure and renewable energy research. This innovative project, powered by solar and hydropower, showcases hydrogen’s pivotal role in achieving a sustainable, low-carbon future for Canada.

Advancing Hydrogen Innovation at BC

The Smart Hydrogen Energy District (SHED) at the University of British Columbia (UBC) has been officially launched, marking a significant advancement in British Columbia’s hydrogen infrastructure. This $23 million facility, equipped with a hydrogen fueling station, aims to revolutionize critical energy research.

SHED will produce hydrogen using solar and hydropower to operate a water electrolyzer, ensuring a completely green and renewable process. It is one of the pioneering initiatives to combine hydro, solar, and hydrogen energy at a single site, connecting these renewable sources to a unified micro-grid. 

Notably, SHED will be the province’s first hydrogen station to serve both light- and heavy-duty vehicles.

Honourable Josie Osborne, Minister of Energy, Mines and Low Carbon Innovation, said that UBC SHED is a significant leap toward building a clean economy. Osborne further noted that by integrating energy, transportation, and design, SHED supports CleanBC goals and positions British Columbia as a global leader in the hydrogen economy.

Bridging Renewable and Sustainable Energy 

Dr. Walter Mérida, SHED research lead, highlighted the importance of hydrogen in Canada’s transition to a low-carbon economy. He remarked that SHED demonstrates hydrogen as a bridge between renewable electricity and sustainable energy services. 

SHED combines various technologies within a city block, serving as a model for compact urban planning. A rooftop solar array powers both the hydrogen fueling station and nearby electric vehicle (EV) charging stations. Two-way charging enables parked EVs to draw power from the grid and return excess stored electricity during peak demand hours. 

With this kind of infrastructure, cars can also serve as mass power banks, stabilizing the electric grids of the future.

A secure 5G network connects SHED’s systems, enabling researchers to create digital simulations for energy, transportation, and urban planning research.

UBC Smart Hydrogen Energy District

Leading the Charge in Hydrogen Infrastructure

Jovan Ceklic, Director of Hydrogen Infrastructure at Powertech Labs, highlighted the importance of this UBC hydrogen development, saying:

“Powertech Labs is excited to have partnered with the University of British Columbia to bring one of the first-of-its-kind truly green hydrogen stations. With an on-site electrolyzer powered by solar power and support from BC Hydro’s green energy grid, the UBC station produces some of the cleanest hydrogen on the market.”

Ceklic also noted that it’s a significant milestone being one of the “first mixed-use stations able to dispense 350 bar and 700 bar fuels for light and heavy-duty applications in Canada”. Moreover, it can potentially offset the tailpipe emissions from more than 4,300 cars. And with the transportation sector responsible for releasing almost 21% of all greenhouse gases in the country, every hydrogen station counts, he added. 

Powertech Labs is proud to be part of this transition. 

The company has over 20 years of experience in the hydrogen industry, providing various hydrogen transport products and refueling services. These include hydrogen station testing, hydrogen fueling services, hydrogen station capabilities and services, and more. 

Powertech Labs has deployed over 90% of the installed hydrogen fueling stations in Canada, according to Ceklic. The country has been investing in the hydrogen sector as outlined in its Hydrogen Strategy. 

Source: Canada Hydrogen Strategy

Clean hydrogen can deliver up to 30% of Canada’s end-use energy by 2050. This means abating up to 190 Mt of CO2e of GHG emissions through deployment in transportation, heating, and industrial applications. 

Mapping the country’s hydrogen production and end-use, this is how it looks, according to Canada’s Hydrogen Strategy.

Catalyzing the Hydrogen Economy

The global hydrogen market is expected to grow significantly in the coming decades. Announced hydrogen production could cover 50% of the volume needed to meet global net zero emissions goal. 

With interest in hydrogen booming across Canada, UBC’s SHED is hoped to attract other clean energy innovators. The goal of the project is to accelerate climate solutions and seek industry and private sector partners for collaboration. 

SHED’s launch represents a pivotal step in the evolution of hydrogen infrastructure and renewable energy research, positioning British Columbia at the forefront of the global energy transition.

Over in Alberta, the province also launched its inaugural commercial hydrogen fueling station with Nikola Corporation’s HYLA brand in April. This major hydrogen initiative is also a product of collaboration among key stakeholders. 

READ MORE: Nikola’s HYLA Stations Are Supercharging the Hydrogen Revolution

In Canada’s 2024 budget, there was a plan to introduce clean hydrogen investment tax credits soon. This could further fuel support and investment in building more hydrogen infrastructure in the country.

The UBC Engineering project marks a major milestone in British Columbia’s push towards a sustainable hydrogen economy. By combining solar, hydro, and hydrogen energy, SHED is poised to drive significant advancements in clean energy research and infrastructure, solidifying the region’s position as a leader in the global energy transition.

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