What Does the U.S. Need to Triple Its Nuclear Capacity by 2050? DOE Explains…

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To hit its 2050 decarbonization targets, the U.S. is focused on tripling its nuclear power, adding over 200 GW of new capacity. Net-zero models highlight the need for this expansion, but how will the U.S. make it happen? The key strategies include deploying advanced reactors, streamlining regulations, boosting public-private partnerships, and investing in critical infrastructure. These steps will pave the way for a cleaner, more sustainable energy future.

The U.S. currently operates 94 nuclear reactors across 54 sites, providing about 20% of the nation’s electricity and nearly half of its carbon-free energy. These reactors are Light Water Reactors (LWRs), with 63 pressurized water reactors and 31 boiling water reactors. The average capacity of these reactors is 1031 MW, with the smallest at 519 MW and the largest at 1401 MW.

Unlocking the U.S. Nuclear Energy Future with Gen III+ and IV Reactors

The DOE has explained the need for both Gen III+ and Generation IV reactors to meet the 3X capacity by 2050. For example, LWRs, bolstered by the recently launched Gen III+ reactors at Vogtle are highly efficient in meeting the immediate energy demands.

Generation IV reactors, on the other hand, offer the advantage of producing higher temperatures, which are ideal for industrial uses. Although some of these designs date back to the 1950s, they have limited operational experience. This means they will need significant investment to reach commercial viability.

Advanced nuclear includes Gen III+ and Gen IV reactors of all sizes

Source: DOE report

Cost Efficiency, Selection, and Standardization of Nuclear Reactors

Making nuclear energy more affordable hinges on selecting and standardizing reactor designs. Different markets, however, need other solutions that are ideal for large-scale electricity generation, such as powering data centers. In contrast, industries needing high heat or steam may benefit from next-gen technologies like Gen IV reactors. Remote areas may require more specialized designs.

Multi-unit plants help cut costs, with a 30% per megawatt-hour saving compared to single-unit plants. While 19 sites host a single reactor, others have two or more, and Vogtle stands out with four reactors. Public support for nuclear energy remains strong, with 91% of residents near plants backing it.

Many current nuclear sites could expand with new reactors like Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) or larger designs. For example, North Carolina’s Shearon Harris plant, originally designed for four reactors, runs just one. SMRs, which are smaller than 350 MW, are seen as a key to reducing costs through factory production. Their small size makes them useful for remote areas, military bases, and industries that rely on expensive diesel generators. Similarly, microreactors which are generally smaller than 50 MW are often used for the same purpose.

To succeed, SMR construction must maximize factory production. Additionally, reducing on-site construction will help lower costs and make nuclear energy more competitive.

Source: DOE report

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The 3 Phases to Achieve Nuclear Liftoff by 2050

A Robust Orderbook

The first step to nuclear expansion is securing 5–10 reactor orders by 2025. This committed orderbook is key for suppliers to invest in manufacturing and reduce costs. Early orders will allow the industry to ramp up production without overloading the supply chain. Delaying these orders until 2030 would raise costs by over 50% and make it harder to hit 2050 decarbonization goals.

On-Time Project Delivery

After the initial demand, delivering the first projects on time and within budget is crucial. The nuclear industry must ensure each phase, from design to licensing, is done efficiently. Meeting construction deadlines will build confidence and prove that future reactors can be completed successfully.

Scaling the Industry

As demand grows, the nuclear industry must expand its workforce, supply chains, and fuel capacity. Reaching 200 GW by 2050 will require scaling up every part of the nuclear ecosystem, from components to spent-fuel management. This industrial growth is essential for supporting the long-term deployment of nuclear energy.

Delaying new nuclear deployment could increase the cost of decarbonization

Source: DOE Report

U.S. Nuclear Growth Requires Major Expansion in Uranium Supply Chain

The DOE has given utmost importance to the need to boost uranium supply to reach the goal of 300 GW of nuclear power. The uranium enrichment pathway looks like this:

The nuclear fuel supply chain has four key steps

Source: DOE report

Mining and Milling

The nation will need 55,000 – 75,000 metric tons (MT) of uranium (U3O8) each year to hit the 2050 target. Currently, the country only produces 2,000 MT annually and has procured 22,000 MT. In 2014, U.S. uranium production peaked at 2,263 MT. To meet future demand, the US will have to increase its production by about 71,000 MT annually.

Conversion Capacity

U.S. will require 70,000 to 95,000 MT of uranium hexafluoride (UF6) conversion capacity. Right now, the country has 10,400 MT of capacity. The Metropolis Works facility, the nation’s sole UF6 converter, reopened in July 2023 after a six-year shutdown. However, this restart alone will not be enough to meet rising demand.

Enrichment Needs

The U.S. needs to boost its uranium enrichment from its current 4.4 million separative work units (SWU) per year to between 45 and 55 million SWU to support 300 GW of nuclear capacity. Generation IV reactors require high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU), enriched to 19.75%. At present, the U.S. relies on a single HALEU facility, producing only 900 kg annually. The DOE is taking steps to create a domestic HALEU supply chain through programs like the HALEU Availability Program, which is backed by $700 million from the Inflation Reduction Act.

Fabrication

The U.S. must also increase its uranium fuel fabrication capacity to between 6,000 and 8,000 MTU annually to support 300 GW of nuclear capacity. Its current capacity stands at 4,200 MT. In addition, advanced reactors will need new fuel types, such as TRISO and metallic fuels. Companies like TerraPower and X-energy are leading projects to develop these advanced fuels. X-energy’s TRISO-X facility, set to begin operations in 2025, will help meet these demands.

International Cooperation

The U.S. leads the “Sapporo 5” coalition, which includes the U.K., France, Japan, and Canada. Together, they have pledged $4.2 billion to invest in nuclear fuel services, including enrichment and conversion. The U.S. has committed $3.42 billion to secure a stable nuclear fuel supply chain and is working closely with its partners to eliminate bottlenecks in the supply chain.

By strengthening its uranium supply chains and collaborating with global partners, the U.S. is positioning itself for significant nuclear growth while ensuring energy independence and a secure domestic supply.

U.S. Nuclear Restarts Spark Fresh Demand for Uranium Amid Tight Supply

In September, the U.S. nuclear sector received a significant boost from DOE to restart major reactors, creating fresh demand for uranium amid a tight global supply chain. These developments mark a clear shift toward nuclear growth in the nation.

S&P Global mentioned, Jonathan Hinze, president of the UxC nuclear fuel consultancy remarked,

“Each of these reactors will use up to 500,000 lb U3O8 annually, and that demand has yet to fully hit the market. While the incremental increase in demand is not that large, any additional fuel purchasing by utilities will likely be felt in the current market given very tight supply-demand fundamentals across the nuclear fuel cycle.”

On Sept. 30, the Biden administration approved a $1.52 billion conditional loan guarantee to restart the 800-MW Palisades nuclear plant in Covert, Michigan. Just days earlier, on Sept. 20, Constellation Energy Corp. announced plans to restart the Three Mile Island Unit 1 nuclear plant in Pennsylvania, partnering with Microsoft to power its data centers.

Uranium Prices Rise on Reactor Restarts

Pricing is a key factor in the nuclear energy comeback. According to S&P Global, spot uranium prices have only seen a slight rise since recent announcements, but the sector is now trending upward. The price has quadrupled from its late-2010s level, fueled by renewed interest in nuclear energy. After the 2011 Fukushima disaster, the uranium market slumped for years. However, prices soared past $100 per pound in early 2024, driven by improved investor confidence.

Recent reactor restarts mark a sharp turnaround for the U.S. nuclear sector, which saw 13 reactors close between 2013 and 2022. Analysts now see more potential for growth. CIBC analysts believe these restarts will further boost the uranium market, especially as the power-hungry AI industry increases demand for energy to run data centers.

Source: S&P Global

Will it Put Pressure on Uranium Supply?

S&P Global further analyzed the situation. They anticipate the revival of nuclear plants is expected to intensify uranium demand. Consequently, driving up prices and challenging supply chains. Scott Melbye, president of the Uranium Producers of America, pointed out that Constellation’s restart will cut into its nuclear fuel reserves, further tightening an already constrained market.

Currently, global geopolitical tensions have also impacted the nuclear fuel market. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has led to disruptions, with the U.S. banning enriched uranium imports from Russia in April 2023. While waivers allow some imports until 2028, the market remains under pressure as Russia considers retaliatory export cuts.

With more countries, including the U.S., committing to tripling nuclear power by 2050, the sector is poised for long-term growth. As nuclear energy regains momentum, it is positioned as a critical component in global efforts to reduce carbon emissions and combat climate change.

6 Reasons Why Nuclear Energy Will Rule the Decarbonized Future

Here are six important reasons nuclear energy plays a key role in the journey to net-zero emissions:

Generates electricity with almost no carbon emissions, making it essential for reducing reliance on fossil fuels.
Provides constant, reliable electricity, crucial for stabilizing the grid as renewable sources grow.
Nuclear plants produce far more electricity per acre than solar or wind, making them ideal for regions with limited space.
They create high-paying jobs and stimulate local economies, especially in regions like the U.S. Southeast.
Supports industrial processes like hydrogen production, benefiting industries beyond just power generation.
Requires fewer raw materials than renewables, reducing environmental impact and conserving critical resources.

Source: DOE Report

In conclusion, nuclear energy will play a pivotal role in the U.S.’s transition to a cleaner, more resilient grid, supporting economic growth and reducing emissions.

Source: Advanced Nuclear Commercial LiftOff

MUST READ: The Atomic Awakening

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The Net Zero Game: Are Hotels and Restaurants Truly Committed to Reducing Carbon Emissions?

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With their substantial energy consumption and carbon emissions, hotel and restaurant chains are becoming key targets for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through improved sustainability practices. Major companies like Chipotle, Marriott, Hilton, and others are presenting two conflicting faces. 

On one side, these companies boast about their efforts to reduce carbon emissions and take strong climate action. Chipotle, for instance, offers an app that lets customers track the carbon footprint of their meals. 

On the other side, these companies are involved in trade associations that are actively opposing local and state climate regulations, often filing lawsuits that could hamper environmental progress.

How Far Do Hotels And Restaurants Are in Lowering Their Emissions?

Chipotle aims to cut its GHG emissions by 50% by 2030. The restaurant managed to reduce Scope 1 (direct) and 2 (indirect from purchased energy) emissions by 13% in 2023 but Scope 3 (other indirect) emissions rose by the same percentage due to new restaurant openings. 

The restaurant chain reduced carbon emissions by 20% (vs. 2019 baseline) while growing its business by 80% as shown in the chart.

Chipotle’s strategy focuses on energy efficiency, reducing demand for traditional energy resources, and increasing the use of low-carbon and renewable energy. They commit to designing restaurants that rely less on fossil fuels like natural gas and aim for 100% renewable energy use.

Marriott and Hilton have made similar commitments, pledging to slash their emissions by nearly 50% by the same year. 

Marriott aims to cut absolute Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions by 46.2% by 2030, using 2019 as a baseline. It also targets a 27.5% reduction in Scope 3 emissions, covering energy use, waste, and employee commuting. However, despite carbon reduction efforts, the hotel’s emissions (Scope 1+2) rose (7%) alongside its revenue (14%) in 2023 compared with 2022. 

Moreover, the hotel plans for 22% of its suppliers to adopt science-based carbon emissions reduction targets by 2028.

By 2050, the company aims to achieve a 90% reduction in Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions, including emissions removal through bioenergy feedstocks. Marriott focuses on 3 distinct levers to reach its net zero target: 

Energy reduction, 
Getting energy from renewable sources, and
Buying goods with lower carbon footprints

Hilton Worldwide aims for net zero by 2030, with clear targets for reducing Scope 1, Scope 2, and Scope 3 emissions. In 2023, Hilton reported Scope 1 and 2 emissions of 2,570,111 MT CO2e, reflecting a 9% increase from 2022. Meanwhile, revenue also increased by 17% for the same period. 

For Scope 3, the company reduced emissions from franchises by 5.50%, down to 4,020,579 MT CO2e. Hilton aims to cut Scope 1 and 2 emissions intensity by 75% from managed hotels and reduce Scope 3 emissions intensity from franchised hotels by 56%, both by 2030, using a 2008 baseline. The hospitality company was able to cut emissions intensity for managed hotels by 45% in 2023.  

The problem of the climate policy split among hotels and restaurants is significant as their climate impact is substantial. Buildings, in particular, play a significant role in carbon emissions. The heating, cooling, and electricity consumed by commercial and residential structures account for about 35% of GHG emissions in the U.S., with large hotels and restaurants contributing a significant portion.

Climate Promises vs. Reality

In cities like Denver, lawmakers have passed ambitious climate regulations aimed at reducing the carbon footprint of buildings. The rules require large buildings, including hotels, to improve their energy efficiency by implementing measures like installing LED lighting, using heat pumps, and adding solar panels.

For example, Denver’s building performance standards mandate that around 3,000 buildings cut their energy use by 30% by 2030. 

While some buildings, like a quarter of those in Denver, already meet the 2030 goals, others, such as the Sheraton Denver Downtown Hotel (part of Marriott), may need to reduce their energy consumption by more than one-third.

However, despite the public climate commitments of companies like Marriott and Hilton, their trade associations have opposed these building efficiency rules. In April, groups such as the Colorado Hotel & Lodging Association (where Marriott executives hold key board positions) filed lawsuits to block both state and city climate mandates. These legal actions argue that the regulations are preempted by federal energy law and claim that complying with the rules would cost billions of dollars.

The inconsistency between hotel climate pledges and trade group actions creates confusion among consumers and policymakers. Companies like Chipotle, which promote their sustainability efforts, are also key members of the Restaurant Law Center, a trade association leading lawsuits against climate regulations in multiple cities, including Denver. 

Marriott, too, distances itself from the actions of the Colorado Hotel & Lodging Association, stating that it does not control the group’s decisions, even though its representatives hold influential board positions. These contradictions make it difficult for cities and states to advance meaningful climate legislation.

RELATED: Climate Clash: SEC’s Climate Disclosure Rule Faces Legal Showdown

The Dilemma in Driving Climate Policy

Buildings are major contributors to climate change, accounting for significant carbon emissions, particularly in urban areas. In cities like Denver, buildings are responsible for roughly half of all climate emissions due to their reliance on methane gas for heating and electricity consumption, much of which is sourced from fossil fuels. 

To combat this, many cities and states have implemented building performance standards aimed at improving energy efficiency, primarily targeting large commercial buildings like hotels and offices. These regulations offer flexibility in how building operators achieve energy reductions, allowing options such as lighting upgrades or solar installations.

The conflicts between the corporate climate commitments of major hotels and restaurant chains and trade association actions could have far-reaching implications. If industry groups succeed in rolling back city and state climate regulations, it could undermine hospitality companies’ efforts to reduce their carbon emissions.

At the same time, these legal battles send mixed messages to consumers, who increasingly expect these companies to take a stand on environmental issues.

As cities and states take on an increasingly important role in driving climate policy, the need for corporate transparency and accountability on climate issues has never been more urgent.

SEE MORE: EU Regulations Poised to Catalyze Global Carbon Market Convergence, Says Trafigura’s Hauman

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U.S. DOE Invests $1.5 Billion to Bolster the Electricity Grid with Clean Energy

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The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is taking major steps to boost the nation’s power grid, aligning with the Biden-Harris Administration’s Investing in America agenda. The DOE announced two important actions to lower costs and improve energy access. The first is a $1.5 billion investment in four key transmission projects and the second is the release of the final National Transmission Planning (NTP) Study.

These moves reflect the administration’s commitment to making the electricity grid more reliable, resilient, and capable of meeting growing demand with affordable, clean energy.

DOE’s $1.5 Billion Boost for Critical Transmission Projects

The press release explains that the funding intends to improve the reliability of the grid, reduce transmission congestion, and generate affordable energy for millions of Americans. Supported by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, these projects are part of the DOE’s Transmission Facilitation Program, which helps remove financial barriers to new transmission development.

These projects will cover nearly 1,000 miles of new transmission lines, adding 7,100 megawatts (MW) of capacity. They will create close to 9,000 jobs and improve the resilience of the grid across Louisiana, Maine, Mississippi, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. The impact extends beyond job creation, as these investments are also expected to relieve expensive congestion on the grid and increase access to clean energy sources.

Key Transmission Projects Leading the Charge

The four projects, now entering contract negotiations, promise significant improvements to the nation’s power grid. These projects include:

Aroostook Renewable Project: This project in Haynesville, Maine will add a 111-mile transmission line, creating 1,200 MW of capacity. It will connect to New England’s power grid, providing access to low-cost clean energy. The project has a $425 million potential contract value and will create over 4,200 construction jobs and 30 permanent roles.
Cimarron Link: A 400-mile transmission line in Oklahoma, this high-voltage line will bring wind and solar energy to growing areas from Texas to Tulsa. It will provide 1,900 MW of capacity and create over 3,600 jobs with ~ $306 million contract value.
Southern Spirit: This 320-mile line, having a $360 million contract value, will connect Texas’s grid with the southeastern U.S., providing 3,000 MW of power. This will improve resilience against extreme weather and create 850 construction jobs and 305 permanent roles.
Southline: A 108-mile transmission line in New Mexico, adding 1,000 MW of capacity and supporting the region’s growing industries. This project will create at least 150 jobs and deliver clean energy to semiconductor and battery manufacturing facilities. Additionally, it has up to $352 million potential contract value.

These projects also support the Biden Administration’s Justice40 Initiative, ensuring that 40% of the benefits reach underserved communities that have been neglected by past infrastructure investments.

Source: DOE

RELATED: Powering the West: How Transmission Projects Can Slash Power-Sector Emissions by 73% 

Unlocking the Transmission Facilitation Program (TFP)

The DOE has introduced the $2.5 billion Transmission Facilitation Program (TFP) to strengthen the country’s electricity grid. This initiative, supported by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, will help build new transmission lines between regions and upgrade existing ones. It also aims to connect microgrids in selected U.S. states and territories.

Overcoming Financial Barriers

Administered through the DOE’s “Building a Better Grid Initiative,” the TFP is a revolving fund program designed to tackle the financial obstacles that often delay large-scale transmission projects. It focuses on projects that are crucial for improving grid reliability but wouldn’t move forward without government support.

The program has three key financial tools:

Capacity Contracts: DOE will buy up to 50% of a planned line’s capacity for up to 40 years, helping project developers attract more investors and customers.
Loans: DOE can offer loans to help with transmission development.
Public-Private Partnerships: DOE will partner with companies within National Interest Electric Transmission Corridors (NIETC) to meet the growing electricity demand across states.

The TFP is ideal for projects that are almost ready to begin construction and need financial backing to proceed. It targets regions that rely on firm transmission lines for point-to-point electricity delivery. Projects already fully funded or with a secure revenue stream won’t be considered for this program.

Through capacity contracts, DOE will commit to buying a percentage of the proposed capacity of new transmission lines. This approach lowers the risk for developers by offering financial stability, which encourages other investors and customers to join in. Furthermore, financing is eased with DOE securing a part of the transmission line’s capacity.

DOE’s National Transmission Planning Study: A Blueprint for the Future

Along with new transmission projects, the DOE has released the National Transmission Planning (NTP) Study. This study looks ahead to 2050, focusing on how to keep the grid reliable and affordable while meeting growing energy demands.

The study shows that by 2050, the U.S. will need to expand its 2020 transmission capacity by 2x or 3x. Without this increase, the grid won’t be able to handle the country’s future energy needs. The NTP Study also reveals that expanding the grid and coordinating transmission projects between regions could save the U.S. between $270 billion and $490 billion.

By using long-term planning and smart investments, the DOE aims to secure a cleaner, more resilient, and more affordable electricity future for all Americans.

Why Transmission Expansion Matters

America’s electricity grid has powered the nation for over a century, but currently, the demands have evolved. As Deputy Secretary of Energy David Turk explains, the grid is the “backbone” of the country’s energy system, and upgrading it is crucial for future reliability and cost savings.

Turk further added,

“DOE’s approach to deploying near-term solutions and developing long-term planning tools will ensure our electric grid is more interconnected and resilient than ever before, while also supporting greater electricity demand. The Biden-Harris Administration is committed to bolstering our power grid to improve the everyday life of Americans through affordable power, fewer blackouts, more reliable power, and additional jobs across our country.” 

The NTP Study emphasizes that better interregional planning—where different regions work together to meet energy needs—can lead to substantial benefits. By coordinating transmission projects across the U.S., the DOE predicts savings of $170 billion to $380 billion through 2050.

It is indeed the largest investment in grid infrastructure in U.S. history. By improving both short-term and long-term transmission planning, the U.S. is poised to meet growing electricity demand while making the grid more sustainable and accessible.

Source: Biden-Harris Administration Invests $1.5 Billion to Bolster the Nation’s Electricity Grid and Deliver Affordable Electricity to Meet New Demands | Department of Energy

FURTHER READING: EIA Expects Explosive Growth in U.S. Battery Storage—Can America Ascend to Dominance?

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Google Speaks: Why Nuclear Energy Could be The Big Tech’s Next Bet

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Google is considering nuclear energy as a potential solution to meet its ambitious 2030 net-zero emissions goals, according to CEO Sundar Pichai. In a recent interview with Nikkei, Pichai revealed that the company is exploring various clean energy investments. These particularly include traditional renewables like solar and innovative technologies such as small modular nuclear reactors. 

This move is part of Google’s strategy to reduce its carbon footprint while addressing the growing energy demands of its expanding artificial intelligence (AI) operations.

Google’s Energy Dilemma: AI vs. Carbon Emissions

In 2023, Google’s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions rose to 14.3 million tCO2e as seen below. This marks a 13% year-over-year increase and a 48% rise from the 2019 base year. And it has been growing since 2020.

This increase in emissions was mainly driven by higher energy use in data centers and supply chain emissions. As Google expands AI integration, its emissions reduction efforts face greater challenges due to the rising energy demands of AI computing and increased infrastructure investments. 

RELEVANT: Google’s Soaring Revenue of $85 Billion Shadowed by Rising Carbon Footprint

The tech giant’s goal is to cut 50% of its combined Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions by 2030. Pichai acknowledged the challenge posed by data centers and AI, which has significantly increased the company’s energy consumption. 

Google’s global network includes over 25 strategically located data centers, selected based on key factors like land availability, infrastructure, local talent, and potential impact. These centers are essential in meeting the growing digital demands of the world, ensuring efficient data processing and storage. 

In 2023, Google’s data centers consumed 24 TWh of electricity, making up 7-10% of the global data center electricity usage, estimated between 240-340 TWh. Despite maintaining a 100% renewable energy match, data center energy use grew by 17%. 

Additionally, the AI-driven company piloted renewable diesel for backup power in select U.S. and European data centers to reduce emissions. The big tech also plans to scale the initiative globally as renewable diesel becomes more available. This effort aims to lower the carbon footprint of their diesel backup power systems.

Can Google’s 2030 Carbon-Free Dream Stay on Course?

Google aims to power all its data centers with 24/7 carbon-free energy by 2030. The company also targets to replenish 120% of the freshwater it uses and achieve Zero Waste to Landfill across its data center operations by the same year. 

These ambitious goals align with the company’s broader sustainability efforts to reduce environmental impact and support a cleaner future. However, Pichai emphasized the challenge of having this goal, saying that:

“It was a very ambitious target, and we are still going to be working very ambitiously towards it.”

AI’s energy demands are immense. A single ChatGPT inquiry consumes nearly 10x the energy of a typical Google search, and generating images requires over 60x more energy than text. 

READ MORE: The Carbon Countdown: AI and Its 10 Billion Rise in Power Use

To meet these growing needs, some tech companies are turning to nuclear power. This shift reflects Big Tech’s challenge of balancing energy consumption with prior commitments to reduce emissions and tackle climate change.

AI data centers are expected to demand even more electricity in the coming years, further complicating Google’s net-zero goals. 

According to the Electric Power Research Institute, data centers could consume over 9% of the nation’s electricity by 2030—more than double current levels. This growing demand has made it critical for tech companies like Google to explore alternative energy sources like nuclear power.

Why Small Nuclear Reactors Might Be Big Tech’s Next Bet

While Pichai did not specify when or where Google would begin using nuclear energy, the tech giant is following a path already taken by other major companies. 

Earlier this year, Amazon announced a deal with Talen Energy to use power from the Susquehanna nuclear plant in Pennsylvania. This nuclear facility is capable of generating 960 megawatts of power—enough to supply about 1 million homes. 

Similarly, Microsoft is working with Constellation Energy to restart the Three Mile Island nuclear plant, a site known for the worst nuclear accident in U.S. history. Constellation is seeking $1.6 billion in federal funding to reopen the plant by 2028, pending approval from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

Nuclear power presents a viable solution for providing reliable, continuous baseload power, traditionally dependent on fossil fuels. As the tech sector shifts towards carbon neutrality or net zero, onsite nuclear energy becomes an ideal choice for data centers, efficiently and sustainably meeting their growing energy needs.

According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, the best nuclear plants that could power data centers include:

Echoing the other tech company’s nuclear power sentiment, Pichai noted:

“We are now looking at additional investments, be it solar, and evaluating technologies like small modular nuclear reactors, etc.”

The tech giant aims to operate on 24/7 carbon-free energy (CFE) by 2030, covering every hour and grid where it functions. The strategy focuses on three initiatives: purchasing carbon-free energy, advancing new and existing technologies, and transforming the energy system through policy changes, partnerships, and advocacy. This approach will help Google slash its Scope 2 emissions, which it controls directly. 

As energy demand continues to outpace renewable energy production, nuclear power is increasingly being viewed as a viable option for tech companies aiming to balance sustainability with the operational needs of their AI-driven data centers. Google’s move toward nuclear energy could significantly shift the tech industry’s approach to clean energy solutions.

READ MORE: Could Merchant Nuclear Plants be the Savior of Power-Hungry Data Centers?

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UK’s £22 Billion Carbon Capture and Storage Plan: A Bold Step or A Fossil Fuel Trap?

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The UK government recently announced a massive £22 billion investment into carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects over the next 25 years. The technology aims to capture carbon emissions from power plants and heavy industries before storing them underground. While this move aligns with the UK’s ambition to achieve net zero by 2050, experts question whether this strategy will lock the country into fossil fuel dependence for decades.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer recently reaffirmed the government’s commitment to CCS.

“Today’s announcement will give industry the certainty it needs – committing to 25 years of funding in this groundbreaking technology – to help deliver jobs, kick-start growth, and repair this country once and for all.”

UK’s Reduced Vision for Carbon Capture and Storage

The government initially planned to fund eight CCS projects to help the UK reach its net zero emissions target by 2050. However, due to escalating supply chain costs, only three projects will now receive government support. According to The Department for Energy Security & Net Zero (DESNZ), the first two of the Track 1 project are:

BP Plc and Equinor ASA will lead the East Coast Cluster in eastern England, focusing on carbon capture projects.
HyNet will serve industrial sites in western England and Wales, advancing carbon capture initiatives in those regions.

Source: DESNZ

While this investment shows the government’s dedication to decarbonization, the reduced scale of the program highlights the financial challenges that CCS technology faces.

According to Bloomberg, these three projects will remove around 3 million tons of CO₂ per year—far below the 20 to 30 million tons that were initially projected.

(DESNZ’s) five criteria for cluster selection – Track-1 of its Carbon Capture, Usage and Storage program.

RECENT: The “Northern Lights” Shines: Shell, Equinor, and TotalEnergies JV Powers the Norway CCS Project 

A Risky Bet on Unproven Technology

The UK bets on carbon capture and storage as a viable means to achieve its net zero target. For tough industries like cement, steel, and fertilizer, CCS is a potential lifesaver. By capturing emissions and storing CO₂ underground, this process prevents greenhouse gases from entering the atmosphere.

On the downside, CCS remains largely untested on the scale needed to make a significant impact. Furthermore, The National Audit Office (NAO) has expressed concerns about the UK’s heavy reliance on CCS and has warned stating,

“Slower progress with getting Track-1 up and running means that DESNZ will struggle to achieve its 2030 ambitions for carbon capture.” 

They have highlighted rising costs and the technology’s inconsistent track record. For instance, over the last 20 years, many CCS projects in the UK have failed to meet expectations, which raises uncertainty about whether this large investment will pay off.

Notably, the biggest challenges include the huge cost of CCS and massive supply chain expenses which have forced the government to step back on its original ambitions. Previously industries also tried to integrate CCS with natural gas and coal power plants but the idea was not feasible.

Additionally, the projects are already facing delays. In this case, investment decisions for the first two clusters were initially set for last year but have been postponed multiple times. The NAO has warned that continued delays could force the government to renegotiate contracts with suppliers, which could further increase costs.

The Climate Change Committee’s (CCC’s) assessment of how much CCUS will need to be deployed under its Balanced Net Zero pathway, 2020 to 2050

Source: DESNZ

Locking in Fossil Fuel Dependence

One of the most significant criticisms of the government’s CCS plan is that it could lock the UK into a reliance on natural gas for generations. Natural gas, primarily composed of methane, is a potent greenhouse gas with significant emissions occurring upstream during extraction, processing, and transportation. Relying on natural gas for energy—even with carbon capture—means the UK will continue importing it, exposing the country to volatile global energy markets.

On the contrary, renewables do not have these risks. Wind and solar power are generated locally and are not subject to fluctuating international prices. By investing heavily in CCS, the government may unintentionally slow down the transition to a fully renewable energy grid. After scrutinizing all these factors, industrialists opine that the UK should prioritize renewable energy development and energy efficiency measures to meet its climate goals more sustainably.

The Global Outlook

Currently, only two commercial-scale coal plants globally operate with CCS—Boundary Dam in Canada and Petra Nova in the US. Both projects have struggled with consistent underperformance, technical setbacks, and cost overruns. Moreover, these plants represent a tiny fraction of global power generation, raising doubts about the feasibility of scaling up CCS in time to meet the UK’s net-zero goals by 2050.

Additionally, media agency, The Conversation reported that 80% of captured CO₂ is currently used to enhance oil recovery, which further contradicts the aim of reducing fossil fuel use. Critics argue that the focus on CCS may deter investment in renewable energy projects like wind and solar, which are both cheaper and proven to be effective.

The UK is not alone in grappling with these issues. Worldwide, carbon capture projects have encountered similar problems with high costs and technical challenges.

In summary, while carbon capture technology is essential for cutting emissions from heavy industries, its limitations and rising costs pose significant challenges. The UK’s current CCS projects are already struggling with delays and escalating expenses, leading to doubts about their long-term viability. As the country pushes forward with its net-zero goals, finding a balance between ambition and practicality will be crucial in determining the success of CCS.

Balancing CCS While Embracing Renewables

Despite these challenges, the UK government remains optimistic about CCS’s role in reducing the nation’s carbon footprint. Along with £8 billion in private investment, the government’s funding will help create 4,000 jobs and build the necessary infrastructure to support carbon capture.

Source: IEA

In conclusion, the UK government will have to carefully balance its investment in CCS with the development of renewable energy to ensure it stays on track for net-zero emissions by 2050. While carbon capture offers a way to reduce emissions from industries that are hard to decarbonize, it is not the perfect solution. The government must continue to invest in wind, solar, and other renewable technologies to create a truly sustainable energy future.

Even though the government’s £22 billion bet on CCS may seem a promising decarbonization effort, only time will tell whether it leads to a truly sustainable energy future or simply prolongs the use of fossil fuels.

Data sources:

UK to Spend £22 Billion on Carbon Capture Sites as Costs Rise – BNN Bloomberg
The UK’s £22 billion bet on carbon capture will lock in fossil fuels for decades (theconversation.com)

________________________________________________________________________

FURTHER READING: Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS): A Primer 

The post UK’s £22 Billion Carbon Capture and Storage Plan: A Bold Step or A Fossil Fuel Trap? appeared first on Carbon Credits.

Solar Showdown: The U.S. Imposes First Penalties on Southeast Asian Imports

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The U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) has announced preliminary countervailing duties on solar cells imported from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. The move is part of an ongoing investigation targeting foreign producers believed to be receiving unfair subsidies. This marks a significant development in a trade case that could reshape the solar industry in the U.S.

Southeast Asia Powered the U.S. Solar Imports in Q1 2024

According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, U.S. solar panel imports remained strong in Q1 2024, nearly matching the previous quarter’s record of 15 GW and rising 13.8% from a year ago. Southeast Asian countries — Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Cambodia — supplied 13 GW, or 87.5%, of the total 14.8 GW of imports in the first quarter.

As imports from these countries increased by 3%, future levels remain uncertain due to a U.S. investigation into alleged illegal imports. This probe, aimed at companies primarily headquartered in China, could result in retroactive tariffs, which might increase challenges for the U.S. solar industry. Analysts predict a rush of imports before any duties are enforced.

U.S. manufacturers like First Solar and Qcells are expanding domestic production but warn that Chinese trade practices could harm the industry. Factories in Vietnam led U.S. solar imports with 36.8% of the total, followed by Thailand, Malaysia, and Cambodia.

READ MORE: US Solar Installations in Q1 2024 Surpass 100 GW Milestone 

New Tariffs Target Southeast Asian Solar Imports

Abigail Ross Hopper, president of the Solar Energy Industries Association, expressed concerns over the matter, stating,

“We need effective solutions that support U.S. solar manufacturers and, at the same time, help us deploy clean energy at the scale and speed we need to tackle climate change and serve growing electricity demand here in the U.S. While we recognize the challenging market landscape for domestic manufacturers in the short term, these cases alone will not solve our macro challenges.”

On October 1, 2024, the Commerce Department released initial findings in its investigation into photovoltaic (PV) cells imported from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. The focus of the probe is on whether these countries are benefiting from subsidies, allowing them to undercut U.S. manufacturers by selling solar products below fair market value.

As per DOC’s press release, the preliminary duties vary significantly across the four countries:

Cambodia: 8.25% to 68.45%
Malaysia: 3.47% to 123.94%
Thailand: 0.14% to 34.52%
Vietnam: 0.81% to 292.61%

These tariffs apply to PV cell imports, whether sold as standalone units or assembled into panels. Some companies, like ISC Cambodia and GEP New Energy in Vietnam, received the highest penalties due to a lack of cooperation with the investigation.

According to Tim Brightbill, the lawyer representing the petitioners, officials also accused the four countries of subsidizing wafers, polysilicon, and other materials. S&P Global reported that on September 20, the U.S. DOC launched an investigation into these new subsidy claims, focusing on PV wafers from all four countries and polysilicon from Cambodia. However, allegations of subsidies on solar glass, silver paste, junction boxes, and aluminum frames are still pending investigation.

Why These Tariffs Matter for the U.S. Solar Industry

The case originated from a petition filed by the American Alliance for Solar Manufacturing Trade Committee. The group, which includes U.S. solar producers like First Solar and Hanwha Qcells USA, is calling for more stringent measures to protect American manufacturing. They argue that Chinese-owned companies operating in Southeast Asia are receiving significant government subsidies, giving them an unfair advantage over U.S. firms.

The tariffs are designed to level the playing field. While the preliminary rates were lower than some analysts expected, the DOC will continue its investigation. The final determinations, expected by spring 2025, could see these duties increase. If U.S. officials find that the domestic solar industry has been harmed, the tariffs will apply retroactively, impacting shipments made 90 days before the preliminary ruling.

MORE DETAILS: Will Record-Breaking Solar Imports Reshape U.S. Industry Amid Tariff Uncertainty?

What Comes Next for Solar Importers and the U.S. Market?

The investigation isn’t over yet. The U.S. is also conducting antidumping duty investigations into solar imports from these four countries. The outcome of both probes could result in higher final duties, depending on the evidence collected.

In the meantime, the U.S. solar market remains in a state of uncertainty. Imports from Vietnam and Thailand have surged in recent months, with the U.S. bringing in 17.4 gigawatts of solar panels in the second quarter of 2024 alone—a record number. Now, those companies face potential retroactive duties, putting projects at risk of increased costs.

Brightbill also expects the final rates to rise, citing past cases where initial findings led to much higher tariffs. He also expressed concerns that many Southeast Asian companies are skilled at hiding the sources of their subsidies, suggesting that the full picture may not emerge until the investigation is complete.

As this case unfolds, solar manufacturers in the U.S. hope the duties will create more room for domestic production. However, some critics warn that the tariffs could increase solar panel costs, potentially slowing the country’s transition to renewable energy.

Brightbill said,

“What happens is these rates will translate into cash deposits collected at the border in the very near future. So, Commerce will instruct Customs and Border Protection to begin collecting cash deposits in these amounts, and that will happen almost immediately. And again, these are preliminary rates. So, if the subsidy rates increase by the time of the final determination, then Commerce will simply tell Customs to expand its collection to the higher rates.”

A final decision is expected next year, with the possibility of more changes on the horizon.

MUST READ: Top Solar Titans and How They Power the Green Energy Transition 

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Former C-Quest Capital CEO Accused of $100M Carbon Credit Fraud Scheme

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Former C-Quest Capital (CQC) Chief Executive Officer Kenneth Newcombe was indicted on charges of wire fraud and commodities fraud. Federal prosecutors accused him of falsifying emissions-reduction data to secure millions of carbon credits and over $100 million in investments. 

Newcombe, who founded C-Quest in 2008, allegedly manipulated data from emission-reduction projects, such as providing cooking stoves in developing countries, to exaggerate their success. Prosecutors claim he covered up lower-than-expected emissions reductions to drive aggressive project growth.

The case, known as US v. Newcombe, 24-cr-567, is being handled in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York (Manhattan).

What C-Quest Capital Does

Washington-based C-Quest focuses on high-impact carbon reduction projects, improving lives in developing nations while combating climate change. CQC generates high-impact carbon credits through three core platforms:

Cleaner cooking,
Sustainable energy, and
Efficient lighting.

Image from the company website

The company distributes clean energy technologies, such as cookstoves, to reduce deforestation and carbon emissions. Their projects span over 20 countries and have improved the lives of more than 41.5 million people, aiming to reduce 1 billion tonnes of CO₂ emissions by 2030. 

Their initiatives address sustainable development goals and are verified by leading standards. C-Quest has been recognized for excellence in energy efficiency and public health projects.

The carbon project developer created the “Transformation Carbon” projects. Each project complies with established carbon offset standards and undergoes strict third-party audits to ensure the credits are genuine, measurable, and impactful.

RELATED: ACX Inks Deal for First-Ever LED Carbon Credits Auction

Yet, the alleged fraud scheme against CQC’s CEO shakes up the company’s results and achievements. 

False Offsets: Emissions Data Manipulation Scandal 

Kenneth Newcombe played a pivotal role in advancing carbon trading during his tenure at the World Bank. In 1994, he spearheaded the Bank’s participation in the Forest Market Transformation Initiative, a coalition involving conservation NGOs, forest industry corporations, researchers, and financiers. 

This initiative led to the establishment of Forest Trends, a Washington, D.C.-based NGO promoting carbon trading, with CEO Michael Jenkins also having ties to the World Bank. Ecosystem Marketplace, an online publication advocating for carbon trading, emerged from Forest Trends.

In 2006, Newcombe transitioned from the World Bank to Climate Change Capital, the largest private sector carbon fund globally. He subsequently led the carbon desk at Goldman Sachs for a year before founding his own company, C-Quest Capital.

Newcombe served on Verra’s, a leading issuer of carbon credits, board from 2007 until December 2023. However, in February 2024, at the age of 76, he announced his decision to step down as CEO of C-Quest Capital, stating that he was among several senior executives and employees who were “terminated.”

Newcombe now faces up to 20 years in prison if convicted of the most serious charges. Prosecutors allege that Newcombe, along with C-Quest employees, manipulated data to present certain projects as more successful than they were. 

One of the key accusations relates to the carbon offsets C-Quest earned by implementing these projects. These carbon offsets are then sold to companies looking to offset their emissions. One carbon offset represents one tonne of emissions avoided or removed.

The accusations come as a significant blow to the carbon offset development industry, where C-Quest and Newcombe had been prominent players. The investors allegedly deceived by Newcombe remain unidentified. C-Quest’s backers, according to its website, include Macquarie Group and GenZero, a unit of Temasek Holdings.

A spokesperson for Newcombe, who is battling cancer at 77, denied the allegations, stating that Newcombe believes the charges are false. The statement also expressed Newcombe’s confidence that should he live to see a jury trial, his name would be cleared.

RELEVANT: Whistleblower Alert: Carbon Markets Tipsters Wanted By CFTC

Federal prosecutors also charged C-Quest’s former head of carbon and sustainability accounting, Tridip Goswami, alongside Newcombe. Goswami, who is in India, was not immediately available for comment. However, former Chief Operating Officer Jason Steele has already pleaded guilty and agreed to cooperate with the authorities.

C-Quest itself was not charged, as the company self-reported the alleged wrongdoing in July and cooperated with law enforcement. At the time, Verra suspended C-Quest’s projects while reviewing the matter. Prosecutors noted that C-Quest’s proactive reporting and cooperation played a significant role in sparing the company from criminal charges.

First Fraud Case Shakes Trust in Voluntary Carbon Credits

In a separate but related action, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed a lawsuit against Newcombe, amplifying the legal troubles faced by the former CEO.

The Commission accused him of providing misleading information to carbon credit registries and 3rd-party reviewers to secure more credits than the company was entitled to. 

The CFTC is seeking penalties, disgorgement of profits, and a permanent trading ban. Additionally, the CFTC issued orders against CQC Impact Investors and its former Chief Operating Officer Jason Steele. 

These are the first actions for fraud in the voluntary carbon credit market, marking a pivotal moment for market integrity. CQC was found guilty of submitting false information to obtain millions of carbon credits between 2019 and 2023. These credits involved projects aimed at reducing carbon emissions in regions like Africa, Asia, and Central America.

CQC cooperated with the CFTC’s investigation, resulting in a $1 million penalty, but the penalty was reduced due to the company’s efforts to address misconduct. CQC admitted its wrongdoing and has agreed to retire or cancel carbon credits in response to its fraudulent activities. This cooperation, alongside the company’s remediation steps—such as terminating key personnel involved in the scheme—helped reduce its penalty.

Newcombe’s accusation raises concerns about integrity in the voluntary carbon market. This pivotal carbon credit fraud underscores the importance of transparency and strict enforcement.

READ MORE: Is The Voluntary Carbon Market Moving Toward Version 2.0?

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Tata’s $11 Billion Leap: India’s First Semiconductor Fab in Partnership with Taiwan’s PSMC

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Tata Electronics, a subsidiary of Tata Sons Pvt. Ltd., is setting a new standard in India’s tech landscape with a massive $11 billion investment. This ambitious move will establish the country’s first semiconductor fabrication plant in Dholera, Gujarat, in partnership with Taiwan-based semiconductor company Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (PSMC). The agreement is a crucial step toward creating a robust semiconductor ecosystem in India, positioning the nation as a rising player in the global chip market.

Unlocking Tata’s Massive Semiconductor Production Plan

Tata’s investment of INR 91,000 crores (~US$11 billion) marks a pivotal moment in India’s industrial development. The new semiconductor fab in Dholera will have the capacity to manufacture up to 50,000 wafers monthly. It will incorporate advanced automation technologies powered by artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, and data analytics to maximize efficiency.

N Chandrasekaran, Chairman of Tata Sons, stated,

“We are pleased to partner with PSMC, whose technology and expertise will significantly accelerate our roadmap to pioneer semiconductor manufacturing in India. This collaboration is a key milestone. I am confident that our comprehensive technology partnership with PSMC will pave the way for innovation, drive growth, and strengthen the global semiconductor supply chain. It will position us to play a key role in the growing semiconductor market to serve global customers.”

Notably, PSMC will contribute to design expertise, construction, and technology transfer. This collaboration ensures that India will soon be home to a cutting-edge semiconductor facility catering to the growing demands of AI, automotive, wireless communication, and computing. Additionally, the chips manufactured at this fab will support essential applications, including power management, display drivers, microcontrollers, and high-performance computing.

MUST READ: A Bold Plan: Tata to Transform Green Steel with Nuclear Power 

Building an Ecosystem, Not Just a Fab

Tata’s partnership with PSMC is more than just building a factory; it’s about creating a complete semiconductor ecosystem. This collaboration will bring advanced technology, skills, and talent to India, strengthening the country’s position in the global semiconductor market.

The Indian government approved Tata’s plans, recognizing the strategic importance of building domestic semiconductor manufacturing capabilities. The plant will not only meet India’s chip demand but also serve international customers, pushing the nation to become a trusted player in the industry.

Furthermore, Tata’s bold vision aligns with the government’s “Make in India, For the World” initiative. The Dholera fab can potentially generate over 20,000 jobs, thereby directly boosting India’s tech and manufacturing sectors. With plans for more fabs, Tata aims to create over 100,000 skilled jobs in the future, indicating the significant impact of this project.

PSMC Pioneering Innovation in Semiconductor Manufacturing

PSMC, the seventh-largest pure-play foundry globally, operates six fabs in Taiwan and produces over 2.1 million wafers annually. Founded in 1994, PSMC successfully transitioned from DRAM production to advanced memory and logic chips, showcasing its adaptability in the semiconductor industry.

In 2023, the company reported total greenhouse gas emissions of 589,995 metric tons of CO2e from Scope 1 and 2, marking a 12.16% decrease from 2022. The primary emission hotspots in Scope 1 and 2 were fluorine-containing gases and purchased electricity, accounting for 94.71% of total emissions.

source: PSMC

In terms of Scope 3, PSMC reported 171,863 metric tons of CO2e, a 19.57% decrease from 2022. Major contributors in Scope 3 included fuel and energy-related activities and purchased goods and services. Overall, PSMC aims to strengthen collaborations with its value chain partners to enhance climate strategies and build a sustainable, low-carbon future.

Dr Frank Huang, Chairman of Powerchip Group and CEO of PSMC, said,

“We are excited to collaborate with Tata Electronics on this pioneering initiative to establish India’s first semiconductor Fab in Gujarat. It reflects our commitment to providing cutting-edge technology and expertise, helping Tata Electronics create a state-of-the-art facility that will catalyze India’s semiconductor landscape. This partnership represents a win-win situation, as it positions PSMC and the Taiwanese ecosystem to gain a significant first-mover advantage in the rapidly expanding Indian market while helping India achieve self-reliance in semiconductor manufacturing. I strongly believe that our partnership will be foundational to the India–Taiwan collaboration in semiconductors and will inspire more commercial and strategic tie-ups between the two sides.”

Strategic Alliances: Tata Electronics, Tata Motors, and ADI Unite for Semiconductor Innovation

Tata Electronics has also been actively forging partnerships to strengthen India’s semiconductor capabilities. A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was recently signed between Tata Electronics, Tata Motors, Tejas Networks, and America-based Analog Devices (ADI). This collaboration aims to explore semiconductor manufacturing opportunities within India, particularly for EVs and network infrastructure.

ADI’s semiconductor products are expected to integrate across various Tata Group applications, enhancing India’s capabilities in EVs, data networks, and more. The partnership will further accelerate India’s journey to become self-reliant in semiconductor production and a key player in the global supply chain.

Vincent Roche, CEO and Chairman of ADI emphasized the significance of this collaboration, highlighting the potential to combine ADI’s semiconductor expertise with Tata Group’s vision to develop cutting-edge technologies across industries, from EVs to next-generation network infrastructure.

N Chandrasekaran once again highlighted the importance of this investment, noting that the development of a prosperous semiconductor industry will not only serve India’s growing tech demand but also support global customers.

Thus, India’s first semiconductor fab represents a pivotal moment in enhancing the country’s industrial capabilities. This initiative further reduces reliance on imports. In conclusion, Tata Group’s substantial investments and strategic partnerships, especially with companies like PSMC and ADI, are driving India’s emergence as a key player in the global semiconductor landscape.

READ MORE: India and UAE Sign Major Agreements with Focus on LNG and Nuclear • 

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2024 US Election and The Fate of $1.2 Trillion Climate and Clean Energy Policy

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The upcoming 2024 US election will have significant implications for the country’s climate and energy policies. While the federal government’s stance on clean energy might see changes depending on who takes office, state-level elections could also influence how much progress is made toward the country’s climate goals. 

As both Democrats and Republicans gear up for the election, their different approaches to clean energy and climate initiatives highlight how the nation’s renewable energy future could unfold.

Federal Climate Policy: The Role of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)

President Joe Biden’s administration made a significant impact on US climate policy by introducing the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). It is a $1.2 trillion law aimed at bolstering clean energy and reducing carbon emissions. The future of this policy could vary significantly depending on the results of the presidential election in November 2024. 

If Vice President Kamala Harris takes the White House, experts predict a continuation of the Biden administration’s focus on implementing and defending the IRA. This would include further efforts to:

promote clean energy incentives, 
support infrastructure projects, and 
ensure that businesses and communities benefit from the law’s financial provisions.

However, if Donald Trump wins the presidency, the IRA could face significant challenges. A Trump-led administration might attempt to reduce or eliminate some of the IRA’s key climate provisions. It may potentially reallocate funds to other priorities, such as extending Trump-era tax cuts. 

However, experts believe a full repeal of the IRA is highly unlikely, even if Republicans gain control of both the House and Senate. The GOP may instead focus on modifying parts of the IRA, such as the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit, which has been a target for criticism by Republican lawmakers.

Experts predict that, regardless of who wins the presidency, there will be efforts to address critical issues such as mineral supply chains. These are essential for the production of clean energy technologies like batteries and electric vehicles.

A narrowly divided Congress, coupled with slim majorities, would make it difficult for either party to implement sweeping changes to energy policy. Instead, smaller legislative actions, such as incentives for critical mineral production or investments in infrastructure for clean energy, are more likely to gain bipartisan support.

What a Harris Administration Could Mean for Clean Energy

If Kamala Harris wins the presidency, her administration will likely continue Biden’s focus on implementing the IRA’s provisions while addressing broader fiscal issues such as the national debt and tax policy. In this scenario, there would be a strong emphasis on capital formation, community engagement, and workforce development in clean energy sectors. 

The Department of Energy (DOE), which has transitioned from a primarily research-focused agency to one responsible for deploying clean energy technologies, would play a critical role in Harris’ energy policy.

However, a Harris administration would likely face challenges in advancing new energy legislation, even if the Democrats secure slim majorities in Congress. As Mary Anne Sullivan, senior regulatory counsel at Hogan Lovells, suggests, sweeping new climate policies are unlikely to be Harris’ top priority. Instead, Democrats would likely concentrate on defending and optimizing the IRA rather than pursuing significant new initiatives.

Trump Administration’s Potential Approach to Energy Policy

If Donald Trump returns to the White House, his administration would likely target the IRA for modifications. This is especially true in the case of provisions related to clean energy tax incentives and electric vehicles. 

However, wholesale repeal of the law remains improbable due to political and economic constraints. Republican lawmakers have already expressed caution about dismantling the IRA too aggressively, given the law’s role in spurring private sector investment in energy projects.

Additionally, a second Trump administration could adopt a more aggressive stance on mineral extraction, particularly for resources critical to clean energy technologies like lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements. This focus on domestic resource extraction aligns with the GOP’s broader strategy to boost energy independence and reduce reliance on foreign minerals.

A survey by Climate Power and Data for Progress shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump on climate and energy issues. This difference is especially significant among young voters, who are likely to be pivotal in the upcoming presidential election, highlighting the candidates’ contrasting approaches to these key issues.

SEE MORE: Kamala Harris Surges Ahead of Trump on Climate and Energy Policies, Survey Shows

State-Level Elections: A Key Driver for Clean Energy Progress

While much attention is focused on the federal election, state-level elections will play an equally crucial role in determining the trajectory of US climate policy. The 2024 election is expected to be one of the largest in US history for state legislative races. It will have over 6,000 seats up for grabs. 

Many of these states have renewable portfolio standards (RPS) or net-zero emission goals, which are often closely tied to which party controls the state legislature and governorship.

States with Democratic trifectas—where the party controls both legislative chambers and the governorship—are more likely to advance clean energy initiatives. These include raising renewable energy targets and passing new climate legislation. 

However, states controlled by Republican trifectas tend to leave decisions about energy generation to utility companies and market forces, often leading to slower progress on clean energy goals.

Key States to Watch

Several states are expected to see potential shifts in political control, which could significantly impact their clean energy policies. These include New Hampshire, North Carolina, Vermont, and Wisconsin. 

New Hampshire’s Republican-controlled legislature has slowed clean energy development, but a political shift could push for stronger renewable targets. In North Carolina, the governor’s race could impact the state’s 2050 carbon-neutral goal. Vermont’s 100% RPS by 2035 might face challenges if its Democratic supermajority weakens, while Wisconsin’s redistricting could reduce Republican dominance over energy policies.

A Pivotal Moment for US Climate Policy

Regardless of the election outcome, the transition to clean energy is likely to continue, driven by market forces, private sector investments, and bipartisan support for critical mineral production. However, the pace and scale of that transition will be heavily influenced by the results of federal and state elections. Thus, this election will be a pivotal moment for US climate policy.

READ FURTHER: How the 2024 Election Will Shape the Future of Biden-Era Climate and Energy Policies

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