The lithium market has entered a period of price decline, mainly because of weaker demand conditions and an oversupply of lithium carbonate in key regions.

In October, seaborne lithium carbonate prices for Asia dropped by 3.8%, hovering around $10,000 per metric ton, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights analysis. 

The price dip reflects the seasonal winding down of demand typically seen at the end of the year when electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers prepare for a slowdown in post-peak sales. While September saw relative price stability, October’s downward shift reveals how the supply chain dynamics are pressing lithium markets. This is especially true in China’s case, which has been the dominant player in global EV sales in 2024. 

• The slowdown underscores the lithium market’s key issue: maintaining demand growth and stabilizing prices amid fluctuating EV sales patterns.

China’s lithium market, the largest globally, saw prices fall by 3.3% in October, settling at about 73,000 yuan per ton. While a brief rebound was observed toward the end of the month, prices continue to reflect the underlying pressures of oversupply. This surplus is compounded by high inventories and the slower-than-expected uptake in EV markets outside of China. 

The global market’s current inability to absorb excess supply effectively sets the tone for a persistent price slump, possibly extending into the next several years.

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Li-FT Power: Exploring & Developing Hard Rock Lithium Deposits In Canada

Li-FT Power Ltd. (TSXV: LIFT) recently announced its first-ever National Instrument 43-101 (NI 43-101) compliant mineral resource estimate (MRE) for the Yellowknife Lithium Project (YLP), located in the Northwest Territories, Canada.

An Initial Mineral Resource of 50.4 Million Tonnes at Yellowknife.

This maiden estimate is a major milestone for the company and marks a significant step forward in the project’s development. Li-FT Power’s upcoming mineral resource is expected to further solidify Yellowknife as one of North America’s largest hard rock lithium resources.

Click to learn more about lithium and Li-FT Power Ltd. >>

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Strategic Adjustments Among Lithium Producers

In response to these challenges, major lithium producers are taking action to manage costs and production levels. 

Companies like Sinomine Resource Group have opted to cut production in higher-cost regions. In Zimbabwe, for instance, Sinomine has minimized its petalite mining operations to prioritize spodumene extraction, which has a lower production cost. This shift reflects a broader industry trend, where companies focus on streamlining their operations to protect profit margins as market prices dip. 

Another significant strategic move within the industry was the recent acquisition of Arcadium Lithium by Rio Tinto. It is a substantial shift in the company’s approach to the lithium sector. This acquisition is particularly important for Rio Tinto as it extends the company’s footprint in lithium production beyond its existing projects in Serbia and Argentina, allowing it to target markets outside of China more effectively.

One of Arcadium’s main competitive advantages lies in its exploration of direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology. DLE can revolutionize the lithium market by unlocking reserves in brine deposits previously considered difficult to exploit using traditional methods. 

Presently, there are 13 DLE projects in operation, with total output projected to reach about 124,000 tonnes in 2024. According to Benchmark’s data, DLE technology can account for 14% of the global lithium supply by 2035, producing around 470,000 tonnes of LCE. This growth underscores the increasing role of DLE in meeting lithium demand for battery and EV markets.

Global Investments and Expanding Lithium Supply Chain

Investments in lithium production continue to grow despite the current market downturn, which signals optimism about long-term demand. 

In October, General Motors made a notable move by increasing its stake in the Lithium Nevada project to 38% with an additional $625 million investment. This initiative speaks of a long-term commitment to secure local lithium supplies. It aligns with the U.S. government’s strategic push to strengthen domestic EV battery production and reduce reliance on imports. 

The U.S. Department of Energy has already extended a substantial loan of $2.26 billion to support phase 1 construction of this project. The figure reveals the critical importance of domestic lithium resources for national energy goals. 

• READ MORE: U.S. DOE Approves $2.26 Billion for Nevada Lithium Mine
  

While traditional methods dominate current production, the lithium market is also increasingly exploring technological advancements. General Motors and other industry stakeholders are actively pursuing direct extraction methods to unlock challenging lithium deposits. 

By experimenting with DLE, the U.S.-based Lithium Nevada project aims to reduce environmental impacts and shorten production timelines. These technological investments indicate that despite current pricing challenges, there’s confidence in lithium’s long-term demand potential. More so as EV adoption grows and global green energy transitions accelerate.

Long-Term Market Forecast and Expected Price Recovery

Looking ahead, lithium prices could remain in a tight range. S&P Global Commodity Insight’s forecasts suggest that the price of lithium carbonate will stay between $9,924 and $11,627 per metric ton until 2026. This projection reflects the industry’s cautious outlook as companies expect that demand growth will take time to balance the current surplus. 

• Analysts predict that a substantial price recovery may not materialize until 2028, with a forecasted rise to $14,659 per metric ton, or about a 20.8% increase, as the market finally shifts into a deficit.

The expected long-term supply shortage is largely tied to the anticipated increase in EV adoption and the renewable energy transition. Both of these demand drivers require significant lithium resources. 

However, automakers worldwide are adjusting their production strategies to balance profitability with sustainable growth. This brings uncertainty to the exact timing of the demand shift that will absorb today’s excess supply.

In summary, the lithium market in 2024 reflects a complex blend of challenges and opportunities. Prices remain low due to oversupply and fluctuating EV demand, especially outside of China, but the long-term outlook for lithium still holds promise.

The lithium industry’s ability to adapt to today’s market conditions will shape the future landscape of this essential resource, ensuring its place in the global shift toward a sustainable energy future.

• SEE MORE: Li-FT Power: Exploring & Developing Hard Rock Lithium Deposits In Canada

The post Can the Lithium Market Overcome Falling Prices and Weak Demand in 2024? appeared first on Carbon Credits.

Nickel, a key component in electric vehicle (EV) batteries and stainless steel, is experiencing significant changes in supply dynamics and pricing. Recent activities by Nickel Industries and market reactions to global economic conditions paint a picture of both challenges and opportunities in the nickel sector.

Nickel Industries Strategic Moves in Indonesia

Nickel Industries, an Australian company, could become one of the largest nickel resource holders in the world with its strategic acquisitions in Indonesia. 

In August 2024, the company signed agreements to purchase the Sampala project and secured a 51% stake in the Siduarsi project. These moves come amid a severe nickel ore shortage in Indonesia. This has led to a staggering 45% rise in local nickel prices since late 2023. 

According to Justin Werner, Managing Director of Nickel Industries, this acquisition is crucial for mitigating the impact of ore shortages and the high prices associated with them.

The Sampala project boasts a significant resource of 2.3 million metric tons of contained nickel metal, along with 200,000 metric tons of cobalt. Werner expects this resource to expand dramatically, potentially reaching up to 10 million metric tons of nickel metal. Once that happens, it will be among the top five known nickel resources globally. 

With plans to commence shipping ore by the end of 2025, Nickel Industries aims to ensure a self-sufficient ore supply for its operations in the Morowali Industrial Park.

In addition, the Siduarsi project has revealed an initial resource of 52 million dry metric tons at a promising nickel grade of 1.1%. This resource is anticipated to grow, and there are projections that the total contained nickel could double. Nickel Industries’ strong position in Indonesia positions it as a key player in the global nickel market.

Global Price Shifts and Market Impact 

While Nickel Industries is making headlines with its acquisitions, broader market trends are affecting nickel prices globally. 

• The London Metal Exchange (LME) recently reported that nickel prices fell to $15,873 per metric ton by the end of October 2024. This decline followed a brief surge to a four-month high of $18,153 per ton earlier in the month. 

The drop was largely attributed to a lack of investor enthusiasm following China’s recent stimulus measures, which did not meet expectations for more aggressive economic support.

• READ MORE: Copper Prices Swing as China’s Stimulus Sends Mixed Signals—What’s Next for 2025?
  

China is the world’s largest consumer of industrial metals, and its economic health is vital for nickel prices. After the Chinese central bank announced its stimulus package on September 24, 2024, investor confidence briefly increased, leading to higher nickel prices. 

However, as details of the package emerged and manufacturing activity in China remained weak, investor sentiment shifted, causing prices to retreat.

Data from S&P Global Commodity Insights maps in detail major market events impacting LME 3M nickel prices shown below.

Adding to this volatility, stocks of Russia-origin nickel in LME warehouses increased significantly, rising 19.6% month over month, per S&P Global analysis. 

This surge in inventory occurs despite an LME ban on new deliveries from Russia in response to geopolitical tensions. As a result, a mix of increased nickel stocks and reduced investor confidence has put downward pressure on LME nickel prices.

Indonesia’s Production Strategy in Focus

Indonesia remains a pivotal player in the global nickel landscape. The country’s energy and mineral resources minister indicated that the government plans to regulate nickel ore production to maintain a balance between supply and demand. 

Such strategy is particularly important given the challenges posed by a new domestic mining approval system that has led some producers to import nickel ore from the Philippines, the second-largest nickel producer.

Interestingly, despite the tight supply situation, Indonesia’s primary nickel output increased by 14.5% year-over-year during the first eight months of 2024. The largest nickel producer is also trying to shift away from China-based ownership to qualify for the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.

This trend highlights the country’s potential to drive global nickel production growth. As Indonesia continues to manage its production levels carefully, it can maintain its status as a leading supplier in the nickel market.

How Do Future Nickel Prices Look Like?

Looking ahead, S&P Global analysts have revised their price forecasts for nickel. Following the October price fluctuations, the forecast for the LME nickel price in the December quarter has been upgraded to $16,583 per ton. This reflects a decline compared to the previous year.

Nevertheless, ongoing discussions in China about issuing significant amounts of debt to stimulate growth could improve investor sentiment and support nickel prices in the near future.

Projections show a surplus in the global primary nickel output over the next four years, growing annually at almost 6%. Yet, Indonesia’s evolving mining policies and production strategies introduce uncertainties that could affect this outlook. 

The recent developments in both Nickel Industries and the broader nickel market underscore the dynamic nature of this essential metal industry. The future of nickel will depend not only on local production strategies in Indonesia but also on global economic conditions and investor confidence.

• SEE MORE: U.S. Expands 45X Tax Credits: What Does It Mean For Nickel and Other Miners?

The post Nickel Market is Changing Big Time: Is a Supply-Demand Shift Underway? appeared first on Carbon Credits.

A group of Canada’s largest oil sands companies, the Pathways Alliance, is in active discussions with Canada Growth Fund (CGF), the federal government’s $15-billion green investment arm, to secure backing for a substantial carbon capture and storage (CCS) project in northern Alberta. 

CCS technology is seen as one of the most effective solutions to reduce emissions in high-polluting sectors like oil, gas, and cement. Canada views this carbon management approach as essential for achieving its net-zero emissions goals.

Carbon Capture Enters the Big Leagues But Price Uncertainty Raises Concerns

The country currently operates several CCS projects that have stored around 44 million tonnes of CO₂ since 2000. 

The federal plan calls for tripling national CCS capacity by 2030 to meet its carbon emission reduction targets. This ambitious goal would require adding new facilities capable of capturing 15 million tonnes of CO₂ annually.

The Pathways Alliance project would include a $16.5-billion network for capturing and storing CO₂ emissions from over a dozen oil sands facilities. The captured CO₂ will be transported to a central hub in Cold Lake, Alberta. Once operational, this network would permanently store the captured CO₂ deep underground, supporting efforts to reduce emissions across Alberta’s oil sands industry.

This is a major step in decarbonization efforts for Canada’s oil and gas sector. However, oil sands executives remain wary of the potential financial risks tied to the future price of carbon. 

Adam Waterous, executive chairman of Strathcona Resources, emphasized the “stroke-of-the-pen” risk, a term used to describe the industry’s fear that regulatory changes or policy reversals, such as a shift in the carbon tax, could drastically impact the value of carbon credits.

Waterous, whose company is the first in the sector to strike a CCS deal with CGF, suggested that industry leaders are cautious about committing capital to projects that could ultimately result in stranded assets if carbon prices don’t stabilize.

Moreover, Waterous foresees a significant need for sequestered carbon from technology firms looking to offset emissions. In particular, a recent carbon capture deal between Microsoft and Occidental Petroleum, aimed at reducing data center emissions.

The Role of Carbon Contracts for Difference (CCfD)

To address industry apprehensions, experts recommend using Carbon Contracts for Difference (CCfD). It offers a guaranteed floor price for sequestered carbon. CCfDs help “de-risk” investments in emissions reduction technology by providing more stable pricing. 

• SEE MORE: Canada Insures Carbon Price Contracts with $7B Funding

They argue it could be a decisive factor in encouraging the Pathways Alliance and other companies to pursue costly CCS projects. 

Canada Growth Fund was partially designed to deploy tools like CCfDs to jumpstart green investments. However, it has not yet offered these to oil and gas producers, who are also seeking loan support for carbon capture technology.

The only oil and gas-related agreement involving CCfDs that CGF has reached thus far is with Entropy, a clean-tech company owned by Advantage Energy. The deal allows Entropy to sell carbon credits with an initial value of up to 185,000 tonnes at $86.50 per tonne. 

In contrast, oil producers seeking to meet compliance obligations through carbon credits have been unable to secure similar agreements with CGF, leaving a gap in support for some of the industry’s largest players.

World’s Largest CCS Project by Pathways Alliance

The Pathways Alliance comprises six major oil sands companies:

1. Canadian Natural Resources,
2. Suncor Energy,
3. Cenovus Energy,
4. Imperial Oil,
5. MEG Energy, and
6. ConocoPhillips Canada. 

If successful, their carbon capture and storage network would be the world’s largest and a landmark in global CCS projects. The alliance is eager to collaborate with Ottawa, recognizing the role government backing plays in ensuring the viability of large-scale CCS ventures. 

Kendall Dilling, president of the Pathways Alliance, expressed optimism over Ottawa’s commitment to de-risking industry investments, stating that they “look forward to continued engagement with the government.”

Other policy experts echoed the sentiment that any successful deal would depend on assurance that the operating costs for carbon capture and storage infrastructure will be viable in the long term. This happens if carbon pricing remains stable. 

Carbon Pricing: A Make-or-Break Factor

The fate of the Pathways Alliance’s CCS project will hinge on the development of carbon pricing policies and market demand. The recent surge in carbon credit retirements, representing demand, highlights a potential future trend that could significantly impact carbon prices. 

Remarkably, Rich Gilmore, CEO of Carbon Growth Partners, stated that although retirements have fluctuated in the past, 2024 looks set to hit a record high. He shared on LinkedIn some of his interesting insights regarding voluntary carbon market (VCM) growth. 

As seen in the chart below, demand surged from November 2023 to January 2024, causing a sharp drop in inventory. This spike was largely due to Shell retiring around 17 million credits to hit its internal net emissions efficiency target. That’s one company offsetting about 28% of its Scope 1 and 2 emissions—without even touching Scope 3.

This shift, spurred by one major player, demonstrates the scale of impact that corporations can have on the VCM. 

Now, imagine the impact when more companies commit to scaling their carbon reduction strategies taking Shell as an example. The demand could quickly outpace supply, driving up carbon credit prices and creating a more competitive market for offsets.

Shell’s industry has a strong reliance on carbon capture technology to help meet decarbonization targets. Canada, as part of its Emissions Reduction Plan, focuses on achieving substantial emission cuts in the oil and gas sector. 

As the country navigates its decarbonization goals, the Pathways Alliance’s CCS negotiations with CGF show the complexities of advancing green initiatives within a competitive, carbon-intensive sector.

With potential government support on the horizon, Canada’s oil sands companies could help make significant progress toward lowering emissions. Once it happens, it will set a precedent for industry-government collaboration on climate action in the years to come. 

• READ MORE: Shell’s Polaris Project Fuels Canada’s Carbon Capture Revolution

The post Canada’s $16.5 Billion Bet on Carbon Capture: Could It Cut Oil Sands Emissions? appeared first on Carbon Credits.

Nikola, America’s favorite zero-emissions truck brand, released its first Sustainability Impact Report. This report provides a comprehensive picture of Nikola’s environmental and social initiatives and explains their progress toward sustainability goals.

Nikola owns battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and hydrogen fuel cell (FCEV) Class 8 trucks, designed specifically to make the environment safer and cleaner. Most significantly, HYLA’s hydrogen refueling ecosystem offers a robust hydrogen infrastructure to support the shift to sustainable fuel sources.

Driving Towards a Zero-Emission Future

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reports that transportation generates around 28% of direct U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Medium- and heavy-duty trucks alone account for about 23% of these emissions. However, the EPA also highlighted that with the rise in transportation costs and freight demands, zero-emission vehicles can be a solution for a sustainable future.

So Nikola’s mission is clear: to lead the transition to zero-emission technology across critical routes. Thereby, supporting a climate-friendly future for commercial transportation.

Steve Girsky, President and CEO of Nikola, stated,

“Our focus is on zero-emission technologies and the infrastructure to support them, decarbonizing what has been known as a very ‘dirty’ market segment, Class 8 trucks. Medium- and heavy-duty trucks produce more emissions than passenger cars and rail combined. Our commitment—our mission, really—to improving air quality, avoiding emissions, and mitigating our contributions to climate change is why most of us work for Nikola. What we are most proud of, besides our dedicated team, is bringing our battery electric truck to market while developing and launching our hydrogen fuel cell electric truck shortly thereafter.”

Nikola’s sustainability report reveals an interesting piece of information. The company was founded to tackle transportation emissions, specifically. In addition to its net-zero goals, it prioritizes drivers’ health, safety, and community well-being where Class 8 trucks operate.

The truck giant strongly believes that zero-emission transportation is achievable, which is why the company aims to expand its impact throughout the nation.

• RELATED: Nikola’s $230M Raise in Q4 and the Hydrogen Revolution

Environmental Impact and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Nikola recognizes the risks of climate change and the opportunities that proactive measures offer. The company has taken the following actions to address these risks and capitalize on opportunities:

• Investment in clean technology and innovation
• Measurement and identification of emission sources
• Commitment to renewable energy and energy efficiency in operations
• Installation of EV charging infrastructure for Nikola trucks and employees
• Adoption of circularity principles and waste diversion strategies for improved sustainability

In 2023, Nikola’s total emissions (Scope 1 and Scope 2) were 5,155.56 MT CO₂e.

Hydrogen Trucks Hit the Highway

In Q4 2023, the company introduced hydrogen fuel cell electric trucks on the road in North America. By year-end, 42 trucks were manufactured, with 35 delivered to dealers and seven retained for ongoing testing and fleet demonstrations.

Early in 2024, the first HYLA modular refueling station was launched in Ontario, California, alongside a new partnership with FirstElement Fuel to offer hydrogen fueling solutions in both Northern and Southern California, including Oakland.

Nikola views both battery electric trucks powered by the grid and hydrogen fuel cell electric trucks as essential to reducing emissions in heavy-duty transportation. The company remains dedicated to advancing both vehicle technologies and fueling infrastructure for broad deployment.

The 3-R Approach to Battery Lifecycles

Nikola is committed to a circular economy, where truck and battery components are built to last long. They can be reused and recycled efficiently. The company collaborates with partners to manage materials responsibly at every stage of a vehicle’s life, focusing on durability and resource efficiency.

Regarding battery sustainability, Nikola has a battery circularity policy based on the 3 Rs: remanufacture, reuse, and recycle all pre-consumer and production batteries. Currently, Nikola’s recycling partners recover up to 95% of materials from lithium-ion batteries, aiming to recycle 100% of scrapped batteries. Notably, last year, the truck titan reused 192 metric tons of batteries.

The company also believes in extending battery life as the most sustainable choice. They use advanced vehicle software to receive over-the-air (OTA) updates that improve battery efficiency and extend battery life before recycling.

Waste and Water Management

The report also highlights the company’s dedication to improving manufacturing practices and minimizing environmental impact. A Waste Management Committee meets regularly to measure performance and implement strategies. They prioritize recycling materials such as steel, aluminum, lithium-ion batteries, plastic, and cardboard. Additionally, Nikola is mindful of water usage, primarily using water for vehicle quality testing and recycling.

Nikola’s environmental impact data for the last year is as follows:

Resource and Energy Efficiency at Nikola Facility

Nikola is committed to maximizing its resource efficiency and minimizing its manufacturing impact. The 670,000-square-foot Coolidge facility uses advanced eco-friendly technologies, including energy-efficient LED lighting, HVAC systems, and daylighting to cut artificial lighting needs.

Additionally, smart-controlled energy systems optimize resource use, while on-site solar panels and EV charging stations support sustainable practices. Nikola has also deployed electric automated guided vehicles (AGVs) and forklifts to further reduce emissions.

The total energy consumption at the facility is 7,491,559 kWh, of which 771,960 kWh is generated through solar.

By embracing these initiatives, Nikola is paving the way for a more sustainable future.

Disclaimer: Data and visuals- Nikola Sustainability Impact Report

• FURTHER READING: Truck Titans Clash: Tesla Semi vs. Nikola Hydrogen 

The post A Green Journey: Key Insights from Nikola’s First Sustainability Report appeared first on Carbon Credits.