Nickel is a versatile metal critical for the clean energy revolution, especially in electric vehicle (EV) batteries. Its role in enhancing battery energy density and efficiency makes it indispensable for longer-range EVs.

As global demand for nickel surges, driven by electrification and renewable energy needs, it becomes a focal point for investors seeking growth opportunities.

With EV adoption accelerating, nickel demand is set to soar. According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, over 50% of nickel demand growth by 2030 will come from battery production, requiring an estimated 1.5 million metric tons annually.

The global shift toward high-energy-density batteries further cements nickel’s role. Additionally, global investment in nickel mining and refining infrastructure could surpass $66 billion by 2030, ensuring long-term supply stability.

For investors, the opportunity is immense. As automakers and governments prioritize EV adoption, demand for nickel could outpace supply, driving prices higher. Companies leading the charge in sustainable nickel production are well-positioned to capitalize on this growth, making them attractive investment options in 2025 and beyond.

However, investing in nickel stocks comes with its challenges. The mining industry is highly cyclical, with stock prices often fluctuating alongside nickel’s market value. Geopolitical events have further strained global nickel supplies and added volatility to the market. To mitigate risks, diversifying with a basket of nickel stocks could be a smart strategy.

With this in mind, here are four nickel companies to watch in 2025, known for their strategic importance and potential in the global nickel market:

Vale S.A.: A Nickel Powerhouse Driving the Energy Transition

Vale is a global leader in nickel production, playing a crucial role in enabling the transition to a low-carbon economy. With a US$38.52 billion market cap, the company accounts for 6%-7% of the global nickel supply. This makes the nickel company a critical supplier of electric vehicle (EV) batteries and renewable energy technologies.

In 2024, Vale produced 179,000 metric tons of nickel, with operations spanning Brazil, Canada, and Indonesia. The company has invested heavily in sustainable mining practices, including its flagship Voisey’s Bay and Sudbury operations in Canada. 

Voisey’s Bay alone could add 45,000 metric tons of nickel annually once its underground expansion is completed in 2025.

• SEE MORE: Vale Base Metals Boosts Nickel: Completes Underground Mining of Voisey’s Bay Project in Canada

Vale is also at the forefront of decarbonization. Its revolutionary Onça Puma ferronickel operation in Brazil integrates energy efficiency measures that reduce CO₂ emissions. The chart below shows the nickel company’s GHG emissions profile. 

In Indonesia, Vale partners with local entities to develop high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) facilities to meet the growing demand for high-grade Class 1 nickel.

With EV adoption expected to skyrocket, Vale is aggressively expanding its nickel refining capacity. The company has partnered with automakers, including Tesla, to secure long-term nickel supply agreements. 

Vale’s low-carbon nickel production technology, certified for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by up to 90% compared to traditional methods, is a key selling point for environmentally conscious investors. 

Here’s the company’s recent financial performance:

Looking ahead, Vale plans to invest over $3 billion to modernize its nickel operations and further reduce carbon emissions. With a clear focus on nickel’s role in EVs, renewable energy, and advanced technologies, the nickel miner continues to attract investors seeking exposure to the green energy revolution.

Norilsk Nickel: The World’s Largest Nickel Producer Driving Sustainability and Innovation

Norilsk Nickel or Nornickel, the world’s largest producer of refined nickel with a US$19.39 billion market cap, is a powerhouse in the global metals market. Headquartered in Russia, the company accounts for over 20% of global high-grade nickel production and operates key assets on the Taimyr and Kola Peninsulas. 

With its commitment to innovation and sustainability, Nornickel is central to the transition toward greener technologies like EVs. Below is the company’s most recent financial highlights:

In 2024 (9 months), Nornickel produced approximately 146,210 metric tons of nickel, maintaining its status as a reliable supplier for the EV battery industry. The company’s focus on sustainable mining practices includes its pioneering carbon-neutral nickel production program, launched to support global decarbonization goals. 

Nornickel has pledged to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 25% by 2030, making it an attractive choice for ESG-focused investors. The nickel company’s GHG emissions have decreased since 2021.

The key to Nornickel’s success is technological innovation. The company is advancing the use of artificial intelligence and automation across its operations, improving efficiency and minimizing environmental impact. 

Notably, its Bystrinsky Mining and Processing Plant is recognized as one of the world’s most advanced facilities, producing nickel, copper, and other critical materials essential for EVs.

To ensure long-term supply stability, the mining giant is investing in exploration and modernization. The company plans to invest $8 billion by 2030 to upgrade its facilities and boost production of high-purity nickel, a key component of EV batteries. This includes expanding its Arctic operations, which hold vast untapped reserves of Class 1 nickel.

By securing long-term partnerships with global automakers and battery manufacturers, Nornickel is well-positioned to capitalize on the EV boom. Its commitment to sustainability, cutting-edge technologies, and robust supply chain solutions make it a top choice for investors looking to ride the wave of electrification.

• RELATED: Nornickel’s Big Copper Bet: Will It Disrupt China’s Smelting Power?

BHP Group: A Global Leader in Sustainable Nickel Supply for EV Growth

BHP is one of the world’s largest mining companies and is diversifying its portfolio to include more nickel production. The company’s Nickel West operation, located in Western Australia, is a fully integrated business covering mining, smelting, and refining. This operation focuses on producing high-quality nickel products designed specifically for the EV battery supply chain.

The mining giant has invested around $3 billion since 2020 to develop a green nickel hub. However, as of mid-2024, BHP has paused its ambitions for this hub due to market challenges.

• READ MORE: Nickel Market in Turmoil: BHP to Halt Operations Due to Price Plunge

The company’s recent financial achievements are as follows, with a $126.29 billion market cap:

In 2024, BHP’s Nickel West produced over 80,000 metric tons of nickel, with 85% of this output directed toward EV battery manufacturers. The operation’s commitment to sustainability is evident in its low-carbon production processes, supported by investments in renewable energy. 

For instance, BHP recently announced a 50% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions at Nickel West by 2030, aligning with its broader decarbonization goals.

BHP is also ramping up its exploration efforts to secure future nickel resources through various initiatives. This includes its West Musgrave Project which it integrates into its portfolio following the acquisition of OZ Minerals in May 2023. This project is in the early stages of execution and is expected to significantly contribute to BHP’s nickel production upon completion.

The company is investing billions over the next five years to expand its nickel production capacity and modernize its operations. This includes developing the Venus nickel deposit and upgrading the Kalgoorlie Nickel Smelter and Kwinana Refinery. These efforts are aimed at meeting the surging demand for high-grade Class 1 nickel, essential for lithium-ion batteries.

Partnerships play a significant role in BHP’s strategy. The company has secured long-term agreements with major automakers like Tesla and Toyota to supply sustainable nickel for EV batteries. These partnerships enhance its position as a key player in the global EV supply chain, offering investors a solid growth trajectory.

With its focus on operational excellence, environmental sustainability, and strategic partnerships, BHP is poised to remain a leader in the nickel market, driving the transition to a low-carbon future and delivering value for shareholders.

• SEE MORE: Nickel Prices in 2025: Indonesia’s 40% Supply Cut Plan and EV Market Shifts

Alaska Energy Metals Corp.: A Rising Star in the Nickel Revolution

Alaska Energy Metals Corp. or AEMC is a standout junior nickel miner based in Alaska with approximately CAD$23.87 million market cap, focused on the development of high-grade nickel resources in a low-carbon environment. It’s strategically positioning itself to meet the surging demand for nickel in electric vehicle (EV) batteries and renewable energy markets. 

The company’s flagship Nikolai Project, located in Southcentral Alaska, spans over 10,600 hectares of prospective land rich in nickel, copper, cobalt, and platinum group metals. Preliminary exploration results indicate a robust resource potential, with nickel grades rivaling some of the world’s top deposits. 

AEMC is actively advancing exploration and development efforts, aiming to become a reliable source of Class 1 nickel, which is critical for high-energy-density batteries. The nickel junior has adopted a strong commitment to sustainability and environmental stewardship. The company plans to integrate renewable energy solutions into its operations to minimize its carbon footprint. 

• RELATED: Alaska Energy Metals Cheers Trump’s Game-Changing Executive Order for Alaska’s Resource Future

Additionally, the rising nickel player is working closely with local communities and stakeholders to ensure responsible resource development that benefits the region economically and socially.

What sets AEMC apart is its strategic vision to fill the growing gap in the nickel supply chain, particularly in North America. By leveraging Alaska’s vast mineral wealth and a favorable regulatory environment, AEMC aims to become a key player in reducing reliance on foreign nickel imports.

As the EV market continues to grow—expected to exceed 50 million units annually by 2030, per Benchmark Mineral Intelligence—AEMC’s focus on sustainable nickel production positions it as an attractive opportunity for investors seeking exposure to the green metals revolution.

With its world-class resources, commitment to sustainability, and strategic location, AEMC could play a pivotal role in powering the next wave of electrification.

So, Why These Nickel Players?

Investing in top nickel companies provides a unique opportunity to participate in the energy transition. These firms are leading the way in supplying the critical metal essential for EV batteries and renewable energy technologies. 

With demand and production forecasted to grow globally and massive infrastructure investments underway, the nickel market is primed for growth.

The top nickel companies highlighted—Vale, Norilsk Nickel, BHP, and Alaska Energy Metals Corp.—each bring distinct advantages, from vast reserves to sustainability-focused operations. These attributes position them as key players in meeting global nickel demand. 

As EV adoption accelerates and nickel remains indispensable, these firms represent not just stability but growth potential, making them must-watch investments in the nickel boom.

• FURTHER READING: Nickel: The Metal Driving the Electric Vehicle Revolution

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The latest move in the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) sector is Boeing’s partnering with Norway’s Norsk e-Fuel to help develop one of Europe’s first large-scale Power-to-Liquids (PtL) facilities.

This partnership aligns with the aviation industry and ICAO member states’ goal to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Also, Boeing’s investment will boost SAF production in the Nordics and globally.

Steve Gillard, Boeing’s regional sustainability director for Europe, Middle East, Türkiye, Africa and Central Asia.

“Our support of and collaboration with Norsk e-Fuel underscores the importance of using fossil-free energy to accelerate SAF production, which is key to reducing aviation’s carbon emissions towards 2050. Our partnership to advance e-fuels will help mobilize the commercialization of SAF in the Nordics and across the world, increasing accessibility and availability for our customers as we help build a robust SAF ecosystem.”

Boeing and Norsk e-Fuel Power Up Sustainable Aviation

Norsk e-Fuel, a Norway-based company that supplies fuels to the aviation industry, is pioneering SAF production through its innovative Power-to-Liquids (PtL) process. The company aims to accelerate the transition to renewable aviation by producing electro-SAF (e-SAF).

So What is e-SAF? 

Well, this advanced fuel is created by using fossil-free power to generate green hydrogen, which is then combined with recycled CO₂ from biogenic sources. Notably, the CO₂ is extracted from the air using innovative Direct Air Capture (DAC) systems.

• The result is a synthetic jet fuel that reduces greenhouse gas emissions by over 90% compared to traditional jet fuel.

Revolutionary Tech Powers Sustainable Fuel Production

Norsk e-Fuel combines cutting-edge technologies to create sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). The process includes Axens and Paul Wurth’s advanced Reverse-Water-Gas-Shift (RWGS) and Fischer-Tropsch units, along with the Gasel® upgrading unit. All these technologies boost energy efficiency and reduce emissions.

Second, Sunfire’s innovative electrolyzer, based on Solid Oxide Electrolyzer Cells (SOEC), uses steam and CO₂ to produce renewable syngas in one step. Next, the Smart integration of waste heat increases plant output, delivering 30% more fuel with the same energy input compared to gas-fired systems.

Lastly, Climeworks adds direct air capture technology to remove CO₂ directly from the atmosphere. Powered by renewable energy, it uses advanced filters to capture and release CO₂ for use or storage. Together, these technologies transform aviation fuel into a cleaner, greener solution.

Scaling Up: Large-Scale Facilities for a Cleaner Future

As a project developer, Norsk e-Fuel is establishing large-scale production sites to meet the aviation industry’s demand for sustainable fuels. The company works with strategic investors and key partners to bring industrial-scale Power-to-Liquid production to life. Its efforts focus on building a new value chain for sustainable fuels to drive renewable aviation forward.

Lars Bjørn Larsen, CCO of Norsk e-Fuel remarked on this partnership, saying:

“Our goal is to make e-fuels competitive with and eventually replace fossil fuels in critical infrastructures as SAF needs to become readily accessible and affordable for advancing aviation’s decarbonization. Boeing’s investment will further accelerate our project pipeline and will facilitate the broader aviation industry’s transition to net-zero emissions.”

Boeing’s investment in Norsk e-Fuel will aid the EU’s SAF volume targets. It will also boost energy security and the long-term competitiveness of aviation in the Nordic region. Overall, this collaboration has the potential to shape policies for the global SAF industry’s economic viability.

• READ MORE: British Airways Commits £9M to Carbon Removal Credits. Can this Propel Aviation to Net Zero? 

Clearing the Skies with SAF

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is transforming the way aircraft are powered by offering a cleaner energy source. It helps reduce the aviation industry’s carbon footprint and dependence on fossil fuels. Despite its benefits, SAF made up only 0.53% of global commercial fuel use in 2024, as per the press release.

• In Europe, the RefuelEU SAF initiative is driving change. It aims to gradually increase SAF’s share to 6% by 2030 and 70% by 2050.
• For e-SAF, like the fuel Norsk e-Fuel produces, the targets are even more ambitious—1.2% by 2030 and 35% by 2050.

ReFuelEU Aviation, part of the EU’s Fit for 55 package, promotes SAF as the most effective way to lower aviation emissions. Fuel suppliers must blend SAF with traditional jet fuel at EU airports. This regulation supports the EU’s climate goals and will cut aviation CO2 emissions by over 60% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels.

The increased use of SAF also improves air quality by reducing harmful pollutants like CO, NOx, and PM, especially near airports. By embracing SAF, the aviation industry takes a major step toward a sustainable, cleaner future.

Boeing’s “Avoid First, Remove Second” Strategy to Cut Carbon Emissions

Boeing follows an “Avoid First, Remove Second” strategy to lower its carbon footprint. The focus is on avoiding Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions by using renewable energy, energy-efficient systems, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). For emissions that are hard to reduce, Boeing invests in permanent carbon removal to support long-term carbon reduction.

Over the past four years, Boeing has voluntarily offset emissions from its manufacturing sites and business travel. In 2023, these offsets met strict global standards, ensuring they were measurable, verified, and tracked. Boeing also followed the aviation sector’s CORSIA framework for offsets.

The company plans to cut fossil fuel use by investing in renewable energy, energy-efficient infrastructure, and conservation efforts. For harder-to-reduce emissions, Boeing will increase investments in permanent removal technologies.

Sustainability Target

Boeing aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030. By the end of 2023, it reduced Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions by 26% from 2017 levels. It also plans to use 100% renewable electricity to boost clean energy use and conservation efforts.

5 Key Areas to Decarbonize Aerospace

The company’s sustainability report also revealed that they are working with customers and governments to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. And they are focussing on five key areas:

1. Fleet Renewal: New airplanes are 20%-30% more efficient than older ones.
2. Operational Efficiency: Boeing helps improve flight operations, air traffic management, and maintenance to cut emissions by up to 10%.
3. Renewable Energy: Research on SAF and renewable energy drives sustainability in aviation.
4. Advanced Technology: Boeing invests in cleaner designs, efficient propulsion, and advanced digital tools.
5. Market-Based Measures: The company offsets emissions from business travel and invests in permanent carbon removal projects.

As Boeing brings its leadership in the SAF industry to this strategic partnership, Norsk e-Fuel adds its advanced technology and a strong network of partners. This includes Norway’s largest air carrier, Norway. Together, they aim to make sustainable aviation a reality, supporting global efforts to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

• LATEST: Verra Launches CORSIA Label Guidance for Aviation Carbon Credits

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However, the rapid growth of AI workloads and data centers poses challenges, raising concerns about the effectiveness of these strategies.

AI’s Growing Carbon Cost: Can Microsoft Keep Up?

The rise of generative AI has dramatically increased demand for data centers, the backbone of AI model training and deployment. These facilities are energy-intensive, housing thousands of servers that consume vast amounts of electricity. 

Microsoft’s emissions have surged nearly 30% since 2020, largely due to indirect emissions from constructing and outfitting new data centers. These emissions, also known as Scope 3, represent more than 96% of the big tech’s total footprint.

The company’s $80 billion investment in infrastructure expansion this year alone underscores the scale of AI-driven growth.

• SEE MORE: Microsoft’s $80B Investment to Set the U.S. AI Innovation on Fire

This trend is not unique to Microsoft. A study by Morgan Stanley estimates that global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from data centers will triple by 2030 due to generative AI. 

Powering AI queries, which can consume 10x more energy than traditional queries, is straining energy grids and pushing tech giants’ sustainability promises out of reach.

Morgan Stanley projects that these energy-hungry facilities will emit 2.5 billion metric tons of CO₂ equivalent gases by 2030. U.S. data center expansion could increase emissions by 200 million metric tons annually, accounting for over half the global build-out. 

Globally, a 200% growth in data centers may lead to an additional 400 million metric tons of CO₂ emissions. This highlights the environmental challenge of AI’s accelerating energy demands, pressuring tech companies like Microsoft to tackle it effectively. 

Re.green Partnership: Restoring Forests, Offsetting Emissions

In its quest to offset emissions, Microsoft has leaned heavily on carbon credits. One notable initiative is its partnership with Brazilian company Re.green, aimed at restoring degraded land by replanting native species. 

• RELATED: Shell and Microsoft Are The Biggest Carbon Credit Buyers in 2024: What Projects Do They Support?

Their latest agreement, signed in 2025, secures 3.5 million tons of carbon removal credits over 25 years. This deal builds on a 2024 agreement for 3 million tons of credits over 15 years. Combined, these contracts involve replanting 10.7 million seedlings across 16,000 hectares in Brazil.

Re.green specializes in ecological restoration and high-quality carbon offsets. Its partnership with Microsoft focuses on restoring 33,000 hectares across the Amazon and Atlantic forests. Since their collaboration began in May 2024, they’ve planted over 4.4 million native seedlings, covering 80 species, on 11,000 hectares of degraded land.

The recent initiative targets western Maranhão and eastern Pará in the Amazon, along with southern Bahia and Vale do Paraíba in the Atlantic Forest. It aims to enhance ecological balance by improving landscape connectivity, supporting species flow, genetic diversity, and processes like seed dispersal and pollination.

Re.green CEO Thiago Picolo hailed the collaboration as proof of the growing carbon credit market, stating, 

“This collaboration serves as tangible evidence that this market not only exists but has significant potential for growth in Brazil.”

Notably, the Financial Times estimates the deal’s value at $200 million based on recent market analysis.

Carbon Credits and the Greenwashing Claims

While carbon credits are a popular tool for offsetting emissions, they have faced criticism. Detractors argue that such credits allow companies to continue emitting GHGs while outsourcing the responsibility of reduction. 

Critics label this practice as “greenwashing,” a sentiment amplified by reports that Microsoft’s AI and cloud services have been marketed to fossil fuel industries to aid resource exploration.

Microsoft is not alone in this scrutiny. A report highlights how major cloud providers, including Microsoft, Amazon, and Google, lack transparency in their carbon emissions data. 

Emissions from data centers are often underestimated and could be much higher than officially reported by big tech.  

From 2020 to 2022, Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Apple’s company-owned data center emissions were likely 7.62 times higher than reported, according to a Guardian analysis. This discrepancy stems from using renewable energy certificates (RECs), which allow companies to claim renewable energy use even if the energy isn’t consumed onsite. 

RECs enable firms to report “market-based” emissions, which are significantly lower than “location-based” emissions—those directly produced at data centers. 

Without RECs or carbon offset credits, Microsoft’s and other tech giants’ true emissions reveal a troubling trend. If these big tech companies were a single country, their combined 2022 emissions would rank 33rd globally, between the Philippines and Algeria. This highlights the environmental impact of growing data center demands and raises concerns about transparency in emissions reporting.

Balancing Innovation with Sustainability: Microsoft’s Challenge

Microsoft’s dual focus on AI innovation and sustainability highlights the tension between technological advancement and environmental responsibility. The company’s significant investments in infrastructure and carbon credits underscore its commitment to addressing these challenges. 

However, the rapid pace of AI development risks outstripping these efforts, making it difficult to achieve carbon-negative goals by 2030. While initiatives like carbon credits and renewable energy investments are steps in the right direction, the rising energy demands of AI underscore the need for systemic change. 

Achieving climate goals will require not only financial investments but also a commitment to transparency and accountability. As Microsoft navigates this complex landscape, its approach will shape the future of sustainable innovation in technology.

• READ MORE: 2025: The Year Clean Energy Dominates with Record $670 Billion Investment, Trumping Oil & Gas

The post Microsoft Buys 3.5 Million Carbon Credits to Offset AI’s Soaring Emissions appeared first on Carbon Credits.

In a move that sparked global controversy, President Donald Trump has again withdrawn the United States from the Paris Agreement on climate change. This decision, announced immediately after his second-term inauguration, has sent shockwaves through international climate circles. 

The withdrawal shifts the global balance in climate action as well as raises questions about the second-biggest emitter’s role in addressing one of the most pressing challenges of our time. With fossil fuel policies dominating Trump’s second term, will this setback jeopardize global decarbonization goals?

What is the Paris Agreement and What is America’s History with It?

The Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, is a landmark international pact aimed at limiting global warming to below 2°C, with efforts to keep it to 1.5°C. The agreement is non-binding, meaning nations aren’t legally required to cut their climate emissions. Instead, each country sets its own emissions targets and strategies for achieving them.

The United States played a pivotal role in shaping the Paris Agreement, signing it in 2015 under President Obama. The country pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2025. 

To meet these goals, policies like the Clean Power Plan and federal investments in clean energy were introduced. However, in 2017, President Trump announced the country’s withdrawal, citing economic concerns. 

Despite rejoining under President Biden in 2021, progress has been inconsistent. Notably, the U.S. committed $3 billion to the Green Climate Fund. But it only delivered $1 billion, leaving a funding gap for developing nations.

U.S. Withdrawal Shakes Global Climate Action: What’s at Stake?

The United States is the second-largest carbon emitter globally, behind China, contributing about 15% of the world’s total GHG emissions. Its participation in the Paris Agreement has always been crucial for global climate efforts.

Trump’s executive order declared the U.S.’s withdrawal effective immediately, bypassing the standard one-year notice period required under the agreement. This swift exit has left many nations scrambling to adjust their strategies, particularly those that depended on U.S. leadership and funding.

Under President Biden, the country committed to reducing its emissions by 50-66% by 2035 and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. These ambitious goals were a cornerstone of the global push toward sustainable development.

The withdrawal halts progress on these targets and eliminates billions of dollars in climate financing for developing countries. These funds were vital for supporting vulnerable nations in their fight against rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and other climate impacts.

• Notably, U.S. emissions fell only 0.2% last year despite Biden’s $1.6 trillion climate agenda.

Trump’s pro-fossil-fuel stance threatens to reverse these modest gains, raising concerns about long-term environmental and economic impacts.

While the Paris Agreement is nonbinding, its symbolic and practical importance cannot be overstated. It has driven global investments in renewable energy, encouraged technological innovation, and fostered international collaboration. Since its adoption, wind and solar energy have grown exponentially, and clean energy investments have nearly doubled compared to fossil fuels. 

However, global emissions remain far from the reductions needed to meet climate targets—the U.S. withdrawal risks undermining this fragile progress at a critical juncture.

Interestingly, multibillionaire Elon Musk, who is a Trump cheerleader once posted on X in 2017 during Trump’s first exit:

“Climate change is real. Leaving Paris is not good for America or the world.”

Trump’s Fossil Fuel Agenda: A Step Forward to “Energy Dominance”, But a Step Backward for Climate Goals

Central to Trump’s decision is his administration’s prioritization of fossil fuels. During his second inaugural address, he declared a “national energy emergency” and emphasized the need to increase oil and gas production. 

“We will drill, baby, drill,” he proclaimed, signaling a sharp pivot from the clean energy policies of the previous administration.

Trump’s energy policies aim to dismantle regulations that limit fossil fuel development and expand domestic production. This approach includes reopening federal lands for drilling, rolling back environmental protections, and halting incentives for renewable energy. 

• RELATED: Trump’s “America First” Energy Agenda: The Critical Points You Must Know

Critics argue that these policies reflect a short-term focus on economic growth at the expense of long-term environmental sustainability.

Remarkably, an analysis suggests that U.S. greenhouse gas emissions would be 28% below 2005 levels by 2030 if Trump wins a second term and rolls back Biden’s policies, falling short of the 50-52% target. 

Under a Biden reelection, emissions would drop to around 43% below 2005 levels. Biden’s policies like the Inflation Reduction Act provided tax incentives for renewable energy projects and set ambitious standards for vehicle emissions and energy efficiency. Trump’s rollback of these policies could slow the adoption of green technologies and jeopardize the U.S.’s position as a leader in clean energy innovation.

In Trump’s scenario, U.S. emissions in 2030 would be about 1GtCO2e higher than under Biden, adding around 4GtCO2e cumulatively by 2030. These extra emissions would result in global climate damages exceeding $900 billion using the EPA’s carbon cost of $230 per tonne.

Resistance at Home

Coalitions of U.S. states, cities, and businesses are stepping up, vowing to meet climate targets despite federal inaction. The U.S. Climate Alliance, representing 24 states, pledges to cut emissions by 66% by 2035.

The America Is All In coalition, co-chaired by former Biden administration officials, represents states that account for nearly 60% of the U.S. economy. Gina McCarthy, the coalition’s co-chair highlighted these subnational actors’ vow to uphold the Paris Agreement’s targets, saying:

“By leaving the Paris Agreement, this administration has abdicated its responsibility to protect the American people and our national security…But rest assured, our states, cities, businesses, and local institutions stand ready to pick up the baton of U.S. climate leadership and do all they can — despite federal complacency — to continue the shift to a clean energy economy.”

Global Repercussions: A Ripple Effect on Climate Action

The international response to Trump’s withdrawal has been overwhelmingly negative. Climate advocates, scientists, and world leaders have condemned the decision, calling it an abdication of responsibility. 

This is particularly concerning ahead of the COP30 climate talks in Brazil, where nations are expected to review and strengthen their commitments under the Paris Agreement.

Globally, Trump’s decision could embolden other nations to scale back their climate ambitions. Countries heavily dependent on fossil fuels may see the U.S. withdrawal as a justification for delaying their transitions to renewable energy. Additionally, the absence of U.S. leadership could undermine trust and cooperation in international climate negotiations, making it more difficult to achieve collective action.

As the world faces unprecedented climate challenges, the need for decisive action has never been greater. Trump’s withdrawal highlights the fragile balance between economic interests and environmental responsibility. While some estimates and projections exist, the real effects of Trump’s fossil fuel agenda remain to be seen and the world is on watch. 

• READ MORE: Trump’s Second Term Sparks a Turning Point in ESG and Climate Disclosure Policies

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