Gevo is increasingly relying on carbon credits and U.S. clean-fuel incentives to improve the economics of its renewable fuels business. Chief Executive Officer Paul Bloom said at a Water Tower Research conference on September 23 that Gevo now expects more than $60 million in 2026 non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA, up from its earlier $30 million target.

The company says carbon monetization, the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit, stronger operations, and new Canadian clean fuel opportunities are behind the higher outlook. The forecast is important because it shows how carbon value can add another revenue stream to low-carbon fuel production.

However, the $60 million figure is a company forecast, not reported earnings. Gevo must still deliver the expected tax-credit sales, carbon revenues, and operating improvements.

Carbon Value Is Becoming a Second Revenue Engine

Gevo’s strategy is built around getting value from both its fuel and the carbon benefits linked to that fuel. Its main asset is Gevo North Dakota, a low-carbon ethanol plant in Richardton, North Dakota, with carbon capture and storage (CCS) on site.

The facility produces about 67 million gallons of low-carbon ethanol a year and currently captures and stores roughly 180,000 metric tons of CO2 annually. The site has an operating Class VI well and enough permitted storage capacity to potentially reach 1 million tonnes of CO2 per year.

The captured biogenic CO2 can generate carbon removal certificates, while the plant’s low carbon intensity can also increase the value of fuel-related incentives.

Gevo calls this approach “carbon arbitrage.” The company can seek value from different carbon markets and choose where the carbon attribute has the highest value, although a particular carbon benefit cannot be sold twice.

Chief Executive Officer Paul Bloom said:

“For every ton of fuel we produce about a ton of carbon dioxide. We capture that carbon dioxide and sequester it in a deep well under our North Dakota facility.”

Bloom said the combined value of carbon and incentives can add roughly $1.50 per gallon beyond the underlying fuel commodity value. This is a company estimate and can vary with market prices and policy rules. 

45Z Tax Credits Power Gevo’s 2026 Outlook

The Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit is one of the biggest drivers of Gevo’s improved forecast. The company expects to monetize more than $70 million of 45Z tax credits during 2026, compared with $52 million in 2025.

Gevo also said it had already closed $20 million of 45Z credit sales after the second quarter and was targeting another $50 million by year-end. 

The 45Z credit is a U.S. tax incentive for qualifying domestic clean transportation fuels. The credit is available for fuel produced after 2024 and sold through December 31, 2029, following changes made by federal legislation in 2025. 

For fuel produced after 2025, eligible feedstocks must be produced or grown in the United States, Mexico, or Canada. The value of the credit depends on the fuel’s emissions performance and other requirements. 

That makes carbon intensity extremely important for producers like Gevo. Lower lifecycle emissions can increase the amount of tax credit attached to qualifying fuel.

In September 2026, the IRS also issued Notice 2026-53, providing the 2026 emissions-rate table and additional guidance on 45Z, including treatment of regenerative agricultural practices. 

Gevo Turns Tax Credits Into Cash

Gevo has demonstrated that 45Z credits can become actual cash rather than simply a future policy benefit. In 2025, Gevo North Dakota sold $52 million of 45Z tax credits. That included a $30 million sale in November, added to $22 million sold earlier in the year. 

The structure is important for Gevo’s business model. The company can sell tax credits to third-party buyers, turning the incentive into cash rather than waiting to use the full value against its own tax liability.

Gevo’s low carbon intensity helps support that value.

The company says Gevo North Dakota has a carbon-intensity score in the low 20s grams of CO2e per megajoule under the GREET model variation proposed for 45Z. British Columbia has previously assigned the plant a score of 19 gCO2e/MJ. 

Its on-site CCS is a major reason for the low score. This creates a direct connection between carbon management and fuel economics.

• SEE MORE: Gevo Advances BECCS Strategy to Meet Rising Demand for Durable Carbon Removal

Canada Adds Another Carbon Revenue Channel

Gevo’s stronger 2026 outlook also includes a new pathway under Canada’s Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR). Canada’s CFR operates a credit market in which each compliance credit represents one tonne of lifecycle CO2e emissions reduction. Credits can be generated by supplying lower-carbon fuels or by reducing the lifecycle carbon intensity of fuels. 

In the second quarter, Gevo received approval for a new pathway covering its low-carbon ethanol with CCS.

The approval allows Gevo to recognize carbon value from qualifying ethanol previously delivered into the Canadian market. The company expected sales under the new pathway to begin appearing in its third-quarter 2026 results. 

This gives Gevo another compliance market alongside U.S. incentives and voluntary carbon removal sales. That diversification is important because carbon prices and fuel markets can change.

North Dakota Expansion Could Scale Fuel and Carbon Revenue

Gevo is also increasing the amount of fuel and carbon value its North Dakota facility can generate. A debottlenecking project is expected to raise low-carbon ethanol output to about 75 million gallons per year, a 10% to 15% increase in ethanol, coproduct, CCS and related incentive volumes starting in 2027.

Gevo said the project remained on track in September and that its new CO2 degassing system had been commissioned ahead of schedule. 

The company plans a big expansion. This could double North Dakota’s ethanol production to 150 million gallons per year. It will include CCS and aims to start in 2028.

More production could mean more low-carbon fuel, more captured biogenic CO2 and more associated incentives. Gevo’s North Dakota site therefore sits at the center of its near-term growth strategy.

Carbon Removal Demand Is Rising But Delivery Lags

The wider carbon removal market is growing, but it remains relatively young. CDR.fyi currently tracks 50.5 million tonnes of durable carbon removal contracted globally, compared with only about 1.7 million tonnes delivered. Its current weighted-average price across publicly disclosed purchases is around $196 per tonne. 

The large gap between contracted and delivered tonnes shows why operational projects can have an advantage.

Gevo’s North Dakota facility is already operating and has generated hundreds of thousands of certified removal credits. That gives the company an existing supply base while many newer CDR projects are still being developed.

However, Gevo’s future carbon revenue will still depend on credit prices, buyer demand, and the amount of CO2 that can be captured and certified.

Can Carbon Management Change the Economics of Renewable Fuel?

Gevo’s updated more-than-$60 million 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook reflects a business model that goes beyond selling ethanol. The company produced $47 million in revenue in the second quarter of 2026 and generated $11 million of adjusted EBITDA. For the first six months, revenue reached about $89.4 million, while adjusted EBITDA was $19.6 million.

The full-year target is therefore a significant step up from first-half results.

Gevo has said the stronger outlook is supported by 45Z monetization, the Canada CFR pathway, low-carbon fuel sales, operational improvements and its carbon business. The broader market lesson is that carbon value can materially change the economics of renewable fuel production.

For Gevo, ethanol provides the core commodity product. CCS creates carbon removal value. 45Z creates a federal clean fuel incentive. Canada’s CFR creates another compliance market. The challenge now is turning those different revenue streams into durable cash flow.

If Gevo can continue producing low-carbon fuel, monetizing eligible incentives and delivering certified carbon removals, its North Dakota facility could serve as a model for how fuel production and carbon management can operate as one integrated business.

• READ MORE: Gevo Expands Carbon Credit Business as Low-Carbon Fuel Growth Boosts 2026 Outlook

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Paraguay and Taiwan are negotiating an agreement that could create a minimum market of 5 million carbon credits for climate projects in Paraguay. The two countries are working on an international transfer agreement that they expect to complete this year, according to Paraguay’s Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development (MADES) official, Victor Gonzalez. The first phase would target demand from Asian companies.

The 5 million-credit figure is a negotiated floor, not a confirmed purchase order. Projects would still need to be developed, approved, verified, and authorized before credits could be transferred.

The talks matter because Paraguay is developing its carbon market. At the same time, Asian companies seek more international carbon credits under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.

Paraguay Builds Its Article 6 Carbon Market

The talks build on a Memorandum of Understanding signed in October 2025 between Paraguay and Taiwan to explore carbon market cooperation. The proposed Implementation Agreement would set rules for projects that cut emissions in Paraguay. It would also transfer the resulting mitigation outcomes to Taiwan.

Paraguay has also been building its domestic carbon market system. Law No. 7190/2023 established a legal framework for carbon markets and created the National Carbon Credit Registry. MADES is responsible for regulating and developing the sector.

The government is now working with the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) on a national carbon market strategy. In September 2026, MADES hosted a second national consultation on the strategy. About 80 representatives from government, finance, business, civil society, and international organizations attended.

The goal is to create clearer rules for projects, improve transparency, and build Paraguay’s ability to take part in international carbon markets.

Five Million Credits Would Create a Large Pipeline

The proposed 5 million credit floor would give the Paraguay-Taiwan partnership significant potential scale. However, these credits do not exist yet.

Projects must first be identified and developed. They need to measure their emissions reductions. Then, they must pass validation and verification. Finally, they should get the necessary government approvals.

Only authorized mitigation outcomes can be transferred under the Article 6 framework. This is important because Paraguay is still strengthening the systems needed to support a larger international carbon market.

MADES said its national strategy will focus on stricter rules, transparency, and systems for monitoring, reporting, and verification. Recent government work with Taiwanese officials has also focused on sharing knowledge about Paraguay’s carbon market rules and institutions.

The 5 million-ton floor should thus be viewed as a potential future supply target, rather than credits already available to buyers.

Taiwan’s Carbon Fee Creates New Credit Demand

Taiwan has a clear reason to secure international carbon credits. The country introduced its carbon fee system in 2025. The standard carbon fee is NT$300 per tonne of CO2e. However, companies that meet approved emissions reduction targets can get lower rates of NT$50 or NT$100 per tonne.

The fee applies to large electricity and manufacturing facilities with annual emissions of at least 25,000 tonnes of CO2e.

Taiwan allows eligible companies to use approved international carbon credits. They can cover up to 5% of their chargeable emissions, following the country’s rules. This creates potential demand for credits generated in Paraguay.

However, not every carbon credit will qualify. Projects must meet Taiwan’s requirements as well as Paraguay’s rules for international transfers. That could favor projects with strong measurement systems, clear carbon ownership, and credible verification.

• RELEVANT: Brazil Eyes China as Carbon Credit Buyer Ahead of Potential COP31 Accord

Article 6 Rules Prevent Double Counting

The proposed deal would operate through Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement. It allows countries to transfer emissions reductions across borders. These transferred outcomes are known as Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes, or ITMOs.

A major safeguard is the corresponding adjustment. Suppose a project in Paraguay creates an authorized emissions reduction and transfers it to a Taiwanese company.

Paraguay must adjust its national emissions accounting so it does not also count that same reduction toward its own climate target. This prevents the same climate benefit from being counted twice.

That makes Article 6 transactions different from many voluntary carbon credit purchases. Voluntary credits do not automatically receive a corresponding adjustment or government authorization.

Paraguay already has experience with this system. It signed an Article 6 Implementation Agreement with Singapore in May 2025. This agreement sets up procedures for project approval, ITMO transfers, and necessary adjustments.

A Taiwan agreement would add another international route for Paraguayan projects.

Forestry and Land Projects Could Lead

Forestry is likely to be an important part of Paraguay’s future carbon market. The country has large areas suitable for forest conservation, restoration, and plantation projects. Taiwan has also expressed interest in working with Paraguayan companies on forestry-related carbon projects.

Paraguay’s reforestation sector has expanded quickly. IMF data show that reforested land reached about 339,866 hectares in 2024, up 66% from 2022. Paraguay’s forestry institute estimates that over 5 million hectares have a high or very high potential for plantation forestry.

Not all this land will become carbon projects. Still, the figures show the scale of Paraguay’s potential forestry investment market.

The country’s opportunities also extend beyond forests. Article 6 projects could cover renewable energy, agriculture, green transport, and other emissions-reduction activities.

That wider project base could help Paraguay meet future demand if Asian buyers seek large and diverse supplies of authorized credits.

The Deal Could Open a Bigger Asian Market

The proposed Paraguay-Taiwan agreement comes as Article 6 markets are expanding across Asia and Latin America.

Singapore has already signed Article 6 agreements with countries including Paraguay, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Laos. Japan and other governments are also developing bilateral carbon market partnerships.

These agreements create links between countries with a demand for international carbon credits and countries with larger opportunities to reduce or remove emissions.

For Paraguay, that could turn forests, agricultural land, and renewable energy resources into sources of climate finance. For Taiwan, it could create another supply of international credits for companies facing domestic carbon costs.

Yet, the 5 million-credit floor is not the final measure of success. The real test is if Paraguay can create projects that follow Article 6 rules. They need to get government approval and show verified emissions reductions.

Paraguay is now building the market infrastructure to support that growth. The government is developing its national carbon market strategy, improving technical capacity, and working with international partners.

If the agreement is completed as planned, it could give Paraguayan project developers a clearer path to Asian buyers.

For Taiwan, it could provide a new source of international mitigation outcomes as its carbon fee system develops. For the wider carbon market, the talks show how Article 6 is moving from international rules toward real commercial demand.

The 5 million-credit target is therefore only the starting point. The bigger opportunity is building a reliable market for verified, authorized, and internationally transferable carbon reductions from Paraguay.

• READ MORE: Singapore Targets 12 Million Carbon Credits in Major Article 6 Tender

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The U.S. solar industry is entering a new phase. Solar installations continue to expand, but the market is also undergoing a major shift in where panels and components are manufactured.

After years of relying heavily on overseas supply chains, the U.S. has attracted billions of dollars into domestic solar factories. New manufacturing capacity is emerging across the country, while developers continue to build large amounts of solar power despite changing tax incentives, trade rules, and permitting challenges.

New research shows just how large that manufacturing push has become.

Cumulative U.S. solar photovoltaic manufacturing capital expenditure is expected to reach $12.2 billion by the end of 2026 since the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) was introduced in 2022, according to analysis from Terawatt PV Research reported by pv magazine. That figure represents more than half of all U.S. solar manufacturing investment since 2001.

At the same time, the latest US Solar Market Insight Q3 2026 report from Wood Mackenzie and the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) shows that the domestic solar market continues to operate at a substantial scale, with a large pipeline supporting demand for locally manufactured equipment.

U.S. Solar Manufacturing Investment Surges

The scale of recent investment stands out against the industry’s earlier history.

According to Terawatt PV Research, U.S. solar manufacturing capex exceeded $2.5 billion annually from 2023 onward. Spending reached a record $4.14 billion in 2024, with more than 60% coming from First Solar and Qcells.

First Solar’s spending included new manufacturing facilities in Alabama and Louisiana, while Qcells expanded its vertically integrated manufacturing operations in Georgia.

From Factory Investment to Actual Solar Production

The investment is also changing the structure of the domestic supply chain. The research firm tracks spending across buildings and infrastructure, new production equipment, and maintenance or upgrades.

• Buildings and infrastructure accounted for roughly 60% of U.S. solar manufacturing capex between 2023 and 2026
• It highlights how much capital has gone into establishing physical production facilities rather than simply upgrading existing lines.

This distinction is important because manufacturing announcements do not automatically translate into production.

A factory can have several gigawatts of announced capacity while still operating well below that level during its initial ramp-up. Terawatt’s analysis therefore looks at effective capacity, actual production, and capacity-conversion rates alongside capital spending.

The research found that conversion rates can range from just 15%-20% during early ramp-up to 70%-80% at some established manufacturing facilities.

• READ MORE: The Ultimate Guide to Solar Energy: Everything You Need to Know in 2026 and Beyond

U.S. Solar Manufacturing Buildout Tops 75 GW as Cell Capacity Surges

According to recent SEIA and Wood Mackenzie data, U.S. operational module manufacturing capacity reached 75.3 GW, with another 14.4 GW under construction. Domestic solar cell manufacturing is also expanding, with 10.6 GW of operational capacity and 19.1 GW under construction.

That upstream growth could gradually reduce one of the biggest weaknesses in the domestic solar supply chain: the gap between module assembly and production of cells and other components.

Texas Emerges as a Solar Manufacturing Hub

The new manufacturing investment is also creating regional clusters.

Texas has emerged as the leading U.S. state for solar module production in 2026, according to Terawatt PV Research. Companies including Canadian Solar, Sirius/Elin, Imperial Star, SEG Solar, T1 Energy, TOYO/Abalance, and Waaree Energies are contributing to the state’s growing manufacturing base.

The Southeast has become another important manufacturing region, particularly across Louisiana, Florida, the Carolinas, Georgia, and Alabama.

This geographic shift could become increasingly important for developers and suppliers as the U.S. solar industry places greater emphasis on domestic sourcing and supply-chain security.

The expansion also extends beyond modules.

• READ MORE: Google Backs One of America’s Largest Solar Projects to Power AI and Cut Emissions

Solar Demand Keeps the Factories Busy

Manufacturing investment would have less value without strong domestic demand.

• The Wood Mackenzie and SEIA Q3 2026 outlook shows that the U.S. installed 11.4 GWdc of solar capacity in Q2 2026, a 45% increase from the same quarter in 2025 and a 43% increase from Q1.
• Utility-scale projects accounted for nearly 10 GWdc, up 61% year over year.

Developers accelerated construction partly because of deadlines associated with federal clean-energy tax credits.

Wood Mackenzie estimates that more than 200 GWdc of utility-scale solar projects sit within the safe-harbored pipeline, providing significant near-term demand visibility.

The residential market presents a different picture. Wood Mackenzie expects U.S. residential solar installations to decline 23% in 2026 following the expiration of the federal residential 25D tax credit.

Utility-scale solar therefore remains an important source of demand as the industry moves through the policy transition.

EIA Data: U.S. Solar Capacity in 2026

EIA’s latest short term energy outlook revealed U.S. solar capacity to reach 181 GW and provide 8% of U.S. electricity generation in 2026

Its latest capacity data also shows how quickly new solar projects are being added. Developers plan to bring 43.4 GW of new utility-scale solar capacity online in 2026, a 60% increase from the 27.2 GW added in 2025, if all planned projects are completed.

• Texas accounts for about 40% of the planned 2026 utility-scale solar additions.

The growth comes as U.S. electricity demand also rises. EIA expects electricity sales to reach 4,135 billion kWh in 2026, nearly 2% above 2025, with data centers and manufacturing contributing to higher commercial and industrial demand.

Can the Market Nearly Double by 2031?

Despite the policy and trade changes, Wood Mackenzie expects the broader U.S. solar market to maintain a substantial buildout.

• The research firm forecasts annual U.S. solar installations to average around 44 GWdc through 2031, with cumulative solar capacity exceeding 545 GWdc by 2031.
• The longer-term trajectory is even higher, projecting cumulative U.S. solar deployment to reach 769 GW by 2036.

However, the path will not be straightforward.

Permitting delays, interconnection constraints, changing trade policies, and the transition away from existing federal tax incentives could affect the pace of future installations. Wood Mackenzie estimates that permitting delays currently affect about 30% of the early-stage utility-scale pipeline.

Trade policy is also reshaping the economics of domestic manufacturing. New tariffs and minimum import prices are increasing pressure on the supply chain while potentially improving the economics of fully integrated U.S. production.

A New Phase for U.S. Solar Manufacturing

The $12.2 billion investment shows that U.S. solar manufacturing has moved beyond factory announcements. Capital is now going into buildings, equipment, and production capacity.

The next test is how quickly these factories can ramp up and compete as costs, technology, and trade rules change.

For investors, manufacturers, and developers, the focus is shifting from announced capacity to operating factories, actual output, and cost competitiveness. The U.S. solar manufacturing story is increasingly about production and capital already moving through the supply chain.

• ALSO SEE: Microsoft Signs Long-Term PPA for Cypress Creek’s 104 MW Washington Solar Project 
• FURTHER READING: Meta (Stock) Signs 144-MW Texas Solar PPA With Apex as Data Center Power Demand Surges

The post U.S. Solar in 2026: $12.2B Investment by Year-End, 75.3 GW Module Capacity and Rising Solar Prices appeared first on Carbon Credits.

The U.S. geothermal energy market could be entering a new phase as the Department of Energy (DOE) moves to unlock resources that conventional geothermal plants cannot easily reach.

On September 21, the DOE announced more than $99 million for 21 projects across the U.S. The funding will support field tests of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) and exploration drilling designed to find and confirm new geothermal resources.

Kyle Haustveit, DOE Under Secretary of Energy, said:

U.S. Geothermal Is Still a Small Market

The Energy Department is supporting geothermal innovation to unlock more of the U.S.’s domestic energy resources. Geothermal can.

Even though geothermal remains a relatively small part of the U.S. power mix, it can provide reliable, around-the-clock power. This further helps to meet rising electricity demand and strengthen energy security.

The latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) show how much room geothermal has to grow.

• The U.S. had about 2.68 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale geothermal capacity as of June 2026. Geothermal plants generated 7.78 billion kilowatt-hours during the first half of 2026, down about 1.1% from the same period in 2025.

In all of 2025, geothermal generated about 16 billion kilowatt-hours, roughly 0.4% of total U.S. utility-scale electricity generation.

California remains the largest geothermal power market, accounting for about 68.6% of U.S. geothermal generation in 2025. Nevada followed with 24.7%, while Utah, Hawaii, Oregon, Idaho, and New Mexico supplied the rest.

The numbers show both the strength and limitation of today’s geothermal industry. Existing projects are concentrated in areas with favorable underground heat, fluids, and natural permeability.

But next-generation geothermal aims to change that.

• MUST READ: Under Trump’s Energy Agenda, Invenergy Drops $765M Offshore Wind Projects for Natural Gas and Geothermal 

Five Projects Will Test Enhanced Geothermal Systems

The DOE selected five projects for field-scale EGS testing:

1. Fervo Energy will drill, complete, and stimulate EGS wells in Elmore County, Idaho. The project will also deploy a high-temperature geophone system designed to operate at or above 200°C and use seismic and geochemical data to study the engineered reservoir.
2. Zanskar Geothermal and Minerals will test a horizontal injection well at the Lightning Dock geothermal field in New Mexico. The project aims to improve pressure support in an existing hydrothermal reservoir while also accessing heat from nearby impermeable rock.
3. AlterG Resources will test EGS in Nevada using a deep horizontal well pair. The project will compare two hydraulic stimulation approaches, providing data on how different completion methods perform at commercially relevant depths.
4. The University of Utah will develop and test an EGS doublet at the Dixie Valley West geothermal field in Nevada. The goal is to determine whether an engineered reservoir next to an existing geothermal system can deliver sustained circulation and useful thermal output.
5. Quaise Energy will conduct an EGS demonstration near Newberry Volcano in Oregon. The site will target bottomhole temperatures of about 265°C to 365°C, pushing geothermal drilling into temperature ranges where conventional tools and materials face greater technical challenges.

Together, these projects could provide real-world data on drilling, reservoir stimulation, temperature, fluid flow, and long-term performance.

Why the Resource Potential Is Getting Attention: 2050 Forecast

The resource potential is much larger than today’s installed capacity suggests.

A 2025 U.S. Geological Survey assessment estimated that the Great Basin alone could contain about 135 GW of EGS electric-generation potential in the upper six kilometers of the Earth’s crust, assuming sufficient technological progress to commercialize these resources.

• The DOE has separately estimated that the U.S. could reach at least 90 GW of geothermal electricity capacity by 2050 with major advances in EGS technology.

However, EIA said that geothermal will contribute to around 1% of total U.S. electricity generation in 2050, with an estimated
generating capacity of 7 GW to 9 GW.

That gap between today’s roughly 2.7 GW of capacity and the potential resource base explains why exploration and field testing matter.

The immediate goal is not simply to build more geothermal plants. It is to reduce the uncertainty around finding resources, drilling into them, creating productive reservoirs, and operating them reliably.

Not an Instant Power Shift, But a Long-Term Push 

The DOE says geothermal can provide firm and flexible electricity, making it a potential complement to variable sources such as wind and solar. And this characteristic could become increasingly valuable as U.S. electricity demand rises from data centers, manufacturing, electrification, and other large loads.

The new projects also create a growing pool of public subsurface data. The DOE plans to make information from the field tests and exploration work available through its Geothermal Data Repository.

For the geothermal industry, that could help turn individual drilling campaigns into a broader learning curve.

The $99 million program will not immediately transform the U.S. power market. But it targets some of geothermal’s biggest development hurdles: finding resources, drilling deeper, improving reservoir performance, and proving that next-generation systems can work outside traditional geothermal hotspots.

If those technical risks fall, the U.S. geothermal opportunity could extend well beyond the small group of states that dominate the market today.

• LATEST: Google, Fervo (FRVO Stock) Sign Record Geothermal Deal to Power AI

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