Agreena Lands Record 4.45M-Ton Soil Carbon Deal for 1.6M Hectares in Kazakhstan

Agreena has signed a 7-year agreement for 4.45 million metric tons of soil carbon credits linked to regenerative farming across 1.6 million hectares of farmland in northern Kazakhstan. The agreement is the largest publicly communicated agricultural carbon agreement to date, according to Agreena. A major commodity trading house will purchase the credits, although the buyer has not been named. The project is targeting the transition of 1.6 million hectares to regenerative farming by 2028. It will generate credits through AgreenaCarbon Kazakhstan, a new project that has entered validation under the Verra Verified Carbon Standard (VCS). Frederik Aagaard, chief commercial officer, Agreena said: “A buyer of this scale only commits to those terms when it is confident the supply will be delivered. That assurance rests on the platform behind it: the scientists who design the program, the dMRV technology that measures it, and the commercial team that brings farmers and buyers to the same table.” The deal is important for more than its size. It shows that buyers are increasingly willing to commit to future carbon credit supply years before credits are issued. A Large Forward Carbon Deal for Agriculture Agreena announced a 4.45 million-ton agreement. This deal spans seven years, making it one of the longest commitments for a soil carbon project. The partnership is a forward purchase agreement, meaning the carbon credits will be delivered over time rather than being available immediately. This model can help solve one of the biggest challenges in agricultural carbon markets: financing the changes needed before credits are generated. Farmers often need to change equipment, crop management, and field practices before measurable climate benefits appear. Long-term buyer commitments can provide more certainty that a market will exist for those future credits. Agreena says the revenue from the agreement will support Kazakh farmers as they adopt regenerative farming practices. The company currently works with about 2,500 farmers across approximately 5 million hectares in 20 countries. Kazakhstan is its 21st market. The 1.6 million hectares targeted by the new project would equal roughly 7% of Kazakhstan’s 23.6 million hectares of sown land in 2025, based on national statistics. SEE MORE: Agreena Carbon Project Earns BBB BeZero Rating, Reinforcing Confidence in Nature-Based Carbon Credits Why Kazakhstan Could Become a Soil Carbon Powerhouse Kazakhstan is a major grain producer with a large farming base, making it an attractive market for soil carbon projects. National statistics show that the country planted about 16.1 million hectares of cereals and legumes in 2025. Total crop production also grew, with the physical volume of crop output increasing 7.8% during the year. The new project focuses on the country's northern grain belt. Agreena reports that the region's Chernozem soils are rich in organic matter. However, they have lost around 28% to 30% of their humus due to decades of conventional farming. Rebuilding soil organic carbon could therefore provide both climate and agricultural benefits. Regenerative practices in the project include reduced tillage, better residue management and cover crops. These practices can help keep more carbon in the soil while improving moisture retention and reducing soil disturbance. Agreena says the region receives only about 300 to 450 millimeters of rain each year, making soil moisture an important issue for farmers. Keeping crop residues on fields can help retain moisture, while reduced tillage can lower fuel use. The Credits Still Need to Pass Verra Validation The size of the agreement should not be confused with credits already issued. AgreenaCarbon Kazakhstan, Verra project ID 6105, is currently undergoing validation under Verra's VM0042 v2.2 Improved Agricultural Land Management methodology. Validation checks whether the project meets the right carbon standards and methods. Credits can only move forward after the necessary climate outcomes are measured and independently assessed. This distinction matters for buyers and investors. The 4.45 million tons are contracted future credits, not 4.45 million verified carbon units available today. Verra's VM0042 methodology covers greenhouse gas emission reductions and soil organic carbon removals resulting from improved agricultural practices. These include reduced tillage, improved fertilizer use, residue and water management, and cover crop practices. The methodology was approved by the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM) as meeting its Core Carbon Principles requirements. However, projects still have to meet project-level conditions before their credits can receive a CCP label. Soil Carbon Is Gaining Credibility Agricultural carbon has faced questions about measurement, additionality, and permanence. Soil carbon can change because of weather, farming practices, and other factors, making accurate measurement difficult. Verra has been tightening its rules to address those challenges. VM0042 v2.2 added changes to baseline setting and additionality and strengthened requirements around measuring soil organic carbon. In June 2026, Verra made more corrections and clarifications. These included rules about additionality evidence, baseline descriptions, and when to measure and model. The ICVCM's Core Carbon Principles also require projects to demonstrate additionality and provide safeguards against reversal risks. These requirements matter because soil carbon is not simply a matter of counting how much carbon is present in a field at one point in time. Projects must establish credible baselines and show that the credited climate benefits would not have occurred without the project incentive. Agreena’s First Verified Project Sets the Stage The Kazakhstan project is not Agreena's first major soil carbon initiative. In September 2025, the AgreenaCarbon Project became the first large-scale agricultural project to get verified under Verra's VCS. The project received approval for 2.3 million VCUs across more than 1.6 million hectares. Agreena reported 1.2 million tons of CO2 reductions and 1.1 million tons of CO2 removals. These came from better farming practices and soil carbon sequestration. That experience could help the company scale its Kazakhstan project, although the new project still has to complete its own validation and verification process. Agreena also uses digital measurement, reporting, and verification tools alongside field data, soil sampling, and modeling. Its programme has previously undergone independent assessment under ISO 14064-2. The Carbon Market Is Moving Toward Forward Supply The agreement also reflects a broader change in voluntary carbon markets. Buyers looking for large volumes of credits increasingly need to secure future supply rather than rely only on spot purchases. That is especially relevant for sectors with limited options for cutting their remaining emissions. The data from Sylvera shows that offtake agreements in the market have grown 205% in 2025 from the previous year. Source: Sylvera A seven-year commitment can give developers capital and visibility while giving buyers greater certainty over future volumes. However, forward deals also carry risk. Projects may experience delays, low credit generation, or changes in methods. Also, verification requirements can shift, and future demand may be uncertain. For agricultural projects, weather is another major variable. Drought, flooding, and changes in crop yields can affect the ability of farmers to maintain regenerative practices and the amount of carbon stored in soil. Strong measurement and risk-management systems are therefore essential. Regenerative Farming Could Deliver Wider Benefits The carbon benefits are only part of the potential value. Agreena says reduced tillage can save farmers about 40 to 60 liters of diesel per hectare. Keeping crop residues helps save soil moisture. Stopping stubble burning cuts down on pollution and nitrogen oxide emissions. The company also expects improved soil practices to support biodiversity and make farmland more resilient to drought and flooding. Northern Kazakhstan's grain belt is home to important steppe ecosystems. Agreena highlights two key species: the Sociable Lapwing, which is critically endangered, and the Steppe Eagle, which is endangered. Both could thrive with improved land management. These co-benefits could become increasingly important as carbon buyers look beyond the number of tonnes on a credit and assess broader environmental outcomes. A Major Test for Agricultural Carbon at Scale The 4.45 million-ton agreement is significant, but its real impact will depend on delivery. Still, the opportunity is substantial. Kazakhstan has a large farming sector, while demand for large volumes of higher-quality carbon credits is growing. For Agreena, the agreement provides a major long-term commercial commitment. For Kazakhstan, it could bring new income to farmers while improving soil health and resilience. And for the wider carbon market, the deal sends a clear message: soil carbon is moving from small farm-level projects toward large, long-term carbon supply agreements. Agreena Lands Record 4.45M-Ton Soil Carbon Deal for 1.6M Hectares in Kazakhstan

Agreena has signed a 7-year agreement for 4.45 million metric tons of soil carbon credits linked to regenerative farming across 1.6 million hectares of farmland in northern Kazakhstan. The agreement is the largest publicly communicated agricultural carbon agreement to date, according to Agreena. A major commodity trading house will purchase the credits, although the buyer has not been named.

The project is targeting the transition of 1.6 million hectares to regenerative farming by 2028. It will generate credits through AgreenaCarbon Kazakhstan, a new project that has entered validation under the Verra Verified Carbon Standard (VCS).

Frederik Aagaard, chief commercial officer, Agreena said:

“A buyer of this scale only commits to those terms when it is confident the supply will be delivered. That assurance rests on the platform behind it: the scientists who design the program, the dMRV technology that measures it, and the commercial team that brings farmers and buyers to the same table.”

The deal is important for more than its size. It shows that buyers are increasingly willing to commit to future carbon credit supply years before credits are issued.

A Large Forward Carbon Deal for Agriculture

Agreena announced a 4.45 million-ton agreement. This deal spans seven years, making it one of the longest commitments for a soil carbon project.

The partnership is a forward purchase agreement, meaning the carbon credits will be delivered over time rather than being available immediately. This model can help solve one of the biggest challenges in agricultural carbon markets: financing the changes needed before credits are generated.

Farmers often need to change equipment, crop management, and field practices before measurable climate benefits appear. Long-term buyer commitments can provide more certainty that a market will exist for those future credits.

Agreena says the revenue from the agreement will support Kazakh farmers as they adopt regenerative farming practices. The company currently works with about 2,500 farmers across approximately 5 million hectares in 20 countries. Kazakhstan is its 21st market.

The 1.6 million hectares targeted by the new project would equal roughly 7% of Kazakhstan’s 23.6 million hectares of sown land in 2025, based on national statistics.

Why Kazakhstan Could Become a Soil Carbon Powerhouse

Kazakhstan is a major grain producer with a large farming base, making it an attractive market for soil carbon projects. National statistics show that the country planted about 16.1 million hectares of cereals and legumes in 2025. Total crop production also grew, with the physical volume of crop output increasing 7.8% during the year.

The new project focuses on the country’s northern grain belt. Agreena reports that the region’s Chernozem soils are rich in organic matter. However, they have lost around 28% to 30% of their humus due to decades of conventional farming. Rebuilding soil organic carbon could therefore provide both climate and agricultural benefits.

Regenerative practices in the project include reduced tillage, better residue management and cover crops. These practices can help keep more carbon in the soil while improving moisture retention and reducing soil disturbance.

Agreena says the region receives only about 300 to 450 millimeters of rain each year, making soil moisture an important issue for farmers. Keeping crop residues on fields can help retain moisture, while reduced tillage can lower fuel use.

Agreena soil carbon deal kazakhstan

The Credits Still Need to Pass Verra Validation

The size of the agreement should not be confused with credits already issued. AgreenaCarbon Kazakhstan, Verra project ID 6105, is currently undergoing validation under Verra’s VM0042 v2.2 Improved Agricultural Land Management methodology.

Validation checks whether the project meets the right carbon standards and methods. Credits can only move forward after the necessary climate outcomes are measured and independently assessed.

This distinction matters for buyers and investors. The 4.45 million tons are contracted future credits, not 4.45 million verified carbon units available today.

Verra’s VM0042 methodology covers greenhouse gas emission reductions and soil organic carbon removals resulting from improved agricultural practices. These include reduced tillage, improved fertilizer use, residue and water management, and cover crop practices.

The methodology was approved by the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM) as meeting its Core Carbon Principles requirements. However, projects still have to meet project-level conditions before their credits can receive a CCP label.

Soil Carbon Is Gaining Credibility

Agricultural carbon has faced questions about measurement, additionality, and permanence. Soil carbon can change because of weather, farming practices, and other factors, making accurate measurement difficult.

Verra has been tightening its rules to address those challenges. VM0042 v2.2 added changes to baseline setting and additionality and strengthened requirements around measuring soil organic carbon.

In June 2026, Verra made more corrections and clarifications. These included rules about additionality evidence, baseline descriptions, and when to measure and model. The ICVCM’s Core Carbon Principles also require projects to demonstrate additionality and provide safeguards against reversal risks.

These requirements matter because soil carbon is not simply a matter of counting how much carbon is present in a field at one point in time. Projects must establish credible baselines and show that the credited climate benefits would not have occurred without the project incentive.

Agreena’s First Verified Project Sets the Stage

The Kazakhstan project is not Agreena’s first major soil carbon initiative. In September 2025, the AgreenaCarbon Project became the first large-scale agricultural project to get verified under Verra’s VCS. The project received approval for 2.3 million VCUs across more than 1.6 million hectares.

Your web browser does not support iframes, which means that the video cannot play. 

 

Agreena reported 1.2 million tons of CO2 reductions and 1.1 million tons of CO2 removals. These came from better farming practices and soil carbon sequestration. That experience could help the company scale its Kazakhstan project, although the new project still has to complete its own validation and verification process.

Agreena also uses digital measurement, reporting, and verification tools alongside field data, soil sampling, and modeling. Its programme has previously undergone independent assessment under ISO 14064-2.

The Carbon Market Is Moving Toward Forward Supply

The agreement also reflects a broader change in voluntary carbon markets. Buyers looking for large volumes of credits increasingly need to secure future supply rather than rely only on spot purchases. That is especially relevant for sectors with limited options for cutting their remaining emissions.

The data from Sylvera shows that offtake agreements in the market have grown 205% in 2025 from the previous year.

annual offtake agreements sylvera
Source: Sylvera

A seven-year commitment can give developers capital and visibility while giving buyers greater certainty over future volumes.

However, forward deals also carry risk. Projects may experience delays, low credit generation, or changes in methods. Also, verification requirements can shift, and future demand may be uncertain.

For agricultural projects, weather is another major variable. Drought, flooding, and changes in crop yields can affect the ability of farmers to maintain regenerative practices and the amount of carbon stored in soil. Strong measurement and risk-management systems are therefore essential.

Regenerative Farming Could Deliver Wider Benefits

The carbon benefits are only part of the potential value. Agreena says reduced tillage can save farmers about 40 to 60 liters of diesel per hectare. Keeping crop residues helps save soil moisture. Stopping stubble burning cuts down on pollution and nitrogen oxide emissions.

The company also expects improved soil practices to support biodiversity and make farmland more resilient to drought and flooding.

Northern Kazakhstan’s grain belt is home to important steppe ecosystems. Agreena highlights two key species: the Sociable Lapwing, which is critically endangered, and the Steppe Eagle, which is endangered. Both could thrive with improved land management.

These co-benefits could become increasingly important as carbon buyers look beyond the number of tonnes on a credit and assess broader environmental outcomes.

A Major Test for Agricultural Carbon at Scale

The 4.45 million-ton agreement is significant, but its real impact will depend on delivery. Still, the opportunity is substantial. Kazakhstan has a large farming sector, while demand for large volumes of higher-quality carbon credits is growing.

For Agreena, the agreement provides a major long-term commercial commitment. For Kazakhstan, it could bring new income to farmers while improving soil health and resilience. And for the wider carbon market, the deal sends a clear message: soil carbon is moving from small farm-level projects toward large, long-term carbon supply agreements.

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RBC Buys Chestnut’s IFM Carbon Credits as Demand for Removals Grows

U.S.-based Chestnut Carbon has reached an agreement to deliver Improved Forest Management (IFM) carbon credits to Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) as corporate demand shifts toward higher-quality carbon removal projects.

The deal will direct carbon-market funding toward privately owned forests across the U.S. It also gives landowners another source of long-term income while supporting practices designed to improve forest health.

Brian Hong, Director, Environmental Markets Solutions Group at RBC

“Directing capital to high-quality, third-party verified climate solutions is important to how RBC can support clients in the transition to a low-carbon and resilient economy. This project is compelling to us because it makes responsible forest stewardship economically viable for landowners while delivering environmental benefits at scale across the United States.”

Why Chestnut’s IFM Carbon Credits Matter

Chestnut’s IFM portfolio covers more than 200,000 acres across 37 U.S. states. The company works with private forest owners through its Forest Carbon Works conservation program.

Broadly speaking, Improved Forest Management projects seek to increase or maintain the amount of carbon stored in forests through better management practices.

These can include:

  • longer harvest rotations
  • retaining larger trees
  • selective thinning
  • improving forest structure
  • prescribed burns

Such practices can also help forests deal with climate-related threats. Healthier forests can be better prepared for wildfire, drought, and other disturbances.

Brian DiMarino, Chief Commercial and Operating Officer at Chestnut, said:

“We’re incredibly proud to be a part of RBC’s commitment to impact through high-quality nature-based carbon removal. Leading financial institutions continue to recognize that nature-based carbon removal is critical in addressing climate change. Lasting conservation happens when economic opportunity is aligned with responsible forest stewardship.”

The Case for Forest Carbon

However, forest management cannot remove every risk. Instead, the goal is to improve resilience while maintaining the long-term productivity of the land.

For private landowners, carbon finance can add another economic reason to keep forests standing. It can provide income without requiring owners to sell land for development or increase harvesting.

Chestnut says its portfolio focuses on privately owned, at-risk U.S. forests. The company also uses a removals-focused approach, with carbon stored in forests forming the basis of its credits.

That focus matters as buyers become more selective about the type of climate benefit they are purchasing.

Carbon Market Buyers Are Paying More for Quality

The carbon market is increasingly moving from a volume-driven model toward one that places a greater value on quality.

Sylvera’s latest data supports that shift. In the first half of 2026, BBB+ rated IFM credits averaged $18.65 per credit, up from $16.34 in the same period of 2025. By comparison, IFM credits rated BB or lower fell to $13.06 from $15.02.

carbon credits retirement IFM
Source: Sylvera

As a result, the price gap between high- and lower-rated IFM credits widened to $5.59 in H1 2026, from just $1.32 a year earlier.

Carbon credits retirement
Source: Sylvera
  • The broader market shows a similar pattern. In Q2 2026, credits rated BBB or higher represented only 27% of rated retirement volume but 51% of rated market value. In other words, higher-quality credits accounted for a much larger share of market value than their volume would suggest.
  • Total retirement market value for Q2 2026 was $247 million.

This trend could benefit well-structured IFM projects. Buyers increasingly want stronger evidence around additionality, permanence, and the amount of carbon actually stored.

Rise In Demand for Nature-Based Removals

The shift toward removals is also visible in corporate purchasing activity.

MSCI found that publicly disclosed, multiyear offtake agreements for nature-based carbon credits reached a record in 2024. Companies announced 10 such deals in the first half of 2024 alone, compared with five during all of 2023.

More importantly, nine of those 10 deals focused entirely on removal credits. These agreements allow companies to secure future supplies of carbon credits while giving project developers greater certainty to invest in projects.

MSCI’s broader market analysis also shows the growing flow of capital toward removals. Between 2021 and the third quarter of 2024, about $43 billion was committed or directly raised for carbon-credit activities, with most of the capital going toward carbon-removal projects, including nature-based and engineered removals.

MSCI carbon removal credits
Sourced from Chestnut Carbon White Paper

This is why long-term agreements such as the Chestnut-RBC deal could become more important. They can give developers predictable demand while helping buyers secure access to higher-quality projects.

RBC Reports 59,519 Carbon Credit Retirements

The Chestnut agreement adds to RBC’s broader use of carbon credits.

According to its 2025 Sustainability Report, RBC purchased and retired 59,519 carbon credits to match its Scope 1 emissions, Scope 2 market-based emissions and business-travel emissions.

  • The bank reported 25,927 tonnes of Scope 1 emissions, 3,562 tonnes of market-based Scope 2 emissions, and 30,030 tonnes from business travel.
  • Its Scope 1 and 2 market-based emissions were 70% below 2018 levels in 2025, while all electricity used across its properties came from renewable sources.

RBC says it sources credits from third-party verified projects and considers factors such as additionality, permanence, location, technology, credit vintage, and environmental and community benefits. Its carbon-credit procurement includes projects registered with Verra, the American Carbon Registry, and Climate Action Reserve.

However, the bank does not disclose the amount it paid for its 2025 carbon credits. Therefore, the financial value of the 59,519 credits cannot be calculated from the sustainability report.

RBC carbon credit retirement
Source: RBC

A Small Operational Footprint, But Larger Financing Exposure

Carbon credits address only one part of RBC’s climate footprint.

  • The bank reported about 29.7 million tonnes of disclosed financed emissions across the sectors covered by its PCAF reporting. Oil and gas represented the largest share, at about 26.4 million tonnes of CO₂e.

At the same time, RBC reported C$29 billion in authorized lending exposure to low-carbon energy and enabling activities, including C$10.2 billion in renewable energy.

The contrast is significant. RBC’s operational emissions are measured in tens of thousands of tonnes, while its financed emissions run into the tens of millions.

Carbon Finance Gives IFM Projects a New Opportunity

Still, the Chestnut agreement shows how carbon finance can support action beyond a company’s direct operations. It connects corporate demand with private landowners and forest-management projects.

As the carbon market matures, buyers are likely to focus less on simply purchasing credits and more on where the carbon is stored, how long it stays there, and whether the claimed climate benefit is credible.

For IFM developers such as Chestnut, that shift could create a stronger market for projects that combine carbon removal with healthier and more resilient forests.

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Singapore, Laos Sign Article 6 Carbon Credit Deal to Unlock Climate Finance

Singapore and Laos have signed a new agreement to collaborate on carbon credits under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, creating a legal framework for the development and international transfer of high-integrity carbon credits.

As per reports, the Implementation Agreement was signed virtually on September 4 by Singapore’s Minister for Sustainability and the Environment and Minister in charge of Trade Relations, Grace Fu, and Lao PDR’s Minister of Agriculture and Environment, Dr. Linkham Douangsavanh.

The deal marks Singapore’s 12th bilateral Implementation Agreement on carbon credits and its fourth with an ASEAN member state.

The agreement could help channel new carbon finance into emissions-reduction projects in Laos while giving Singapore access to additional high-quality carbon credits.

Grace Fu further noted,

“Singapore and Lao PDR share a strong and longstanding partnership. As fellow ASEAN Member States, we are committed
to working together on regional and bilateral initiatives. The signing of the Implementation Agreement is an important milestone in our bilateral partnership and unlocks new opportunities in carbon markets for businesses and local communities. By working together, ASEAN can lead the way in building a low-carbon future that delivers tangible benefits across the region.”

Singapore and Laos Build Article 6 Carbon Market Framework

Carbon markets are becoming a central tool in global climate policy despite ongoing concerns over credit quality and transparency. As per MSCI, the global carbon-credit market is projected to grow modestly by 2030, reaching USD 5–20 billion, but could expand sharply by 2050 to USD 60–270 billion as demand strengthens and high-quality supply becomes more constrained.

The image below explains the growth in detail:

carbon market
Source: MSCI

This agreement establishes a legally binding framework for carbon mitigation projects that comply with the Article 6 rulebook.

Under the framework, project developers in Laos can develop eligible emissions-reduction projects and seek authorization to transfer their carbon credits internationally.

The credits must undergo corresponding adjustments before they can be transferred for eligible international uses. This mechanism is designed to prevent the same emissions reduction from being counted toward both countries’ climate targets.

Singapore and Laos will set out the procedures for project authorization and corresponding adjustments. Singapore will publish details on eligible carbon-crediting methodologies and the authorization process through its Article 6 platform.

The framework therefore provides project developers with a clearer path to participate in the growing international carbon market.

Carbon Finance to Support Laos’ Climate Goals

Beyond creating a carbon trading framework, the agreement is designed to direct climate finance toward emissions-reduction opportunities in Lao PDR.

  • Singapore has committed to channel 5% of the proceeds from authorized carbon credits under the agreement toward climate adaptation measures in Laos.
  • The agreement also includes a separate contribution toward global emissions reduction. Singapore will cancel 2% of the correspondingly adjusted carbon credits at first issuance.

These cancelled credits cannot be sold, traded, or counted toward the emissions targets of any country. Together, these provisions are intended to ensure that the carbon market generates benefits beyond the sale and transfer of credits.

Projects authorized under the agreement are also expected to support sustainable development in Laos, including job creation and reductions in environmental pollution.

Singapore Expands Its International Carbon Market Strategy

The agreement fits into Singapore’s broader strategy of using international carbon markets alongside domestic climate policies. Notably, the country introduced Southeast Asia’s first national carbon tax in 2019. The tax applies to large industrial facilities emitting at least 25,000 tonnes of greenhouse gases annually.

The country is also raising its carbon price. Singapore’s carbon tax is set to increase from S$25 per tonne currently to S$50-S$80 per tonne by 2030.

singapore carbon market

To help companies manage some of the cost, Singapore allows covered facilities to use eligible international carbon credits to offset up to 5% of their taxable emissions under its International Carbon Credits framework.

As a result, access to high-quality international credits is becoming increasingly important for companies operating under Singapore’s carbon pricing system.

Singapore Expands Article 6 Partnerships

The partnership also strengthens Singapore’s position as a regional hub for carbon trading and climate finance. The city-state already hosts major carbon market and climate finance businesses, including Climate Impact X.

More broadly, the agreement shows how Article 6 is moving from an international rulebook toward practical bilateral carbon market arrangements.

  • Singapore has now signed similar Implementation Agreements with Bhutan, Chile, Ghana, Mongolia, Paraguay, Papua New Guinea, Peru, Rwanda, Thailand, the Philippines, and Vietnam.

Why the Laos Deal Matters for the Carbon Market

The agreement gives Laos a new pathway to attract international climate finance for emissions-reduction and sustainable development projects. At the same time, it expands Singapore’s pipeline of high-integrity carbon credits and strengthens its role as a regional hub for carbon trading and climate finance.

More importantly, the deal shows how Article 6 is moving from global rules into practical bilateral carbon market partnerships. With 12 implementation agreements now signed, including four with ASEAN member states, Singapore is building a network that could support greater cross-border investment in climate action while helping countries meet their emissions goals.

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Europe’s Largest Carbon Capture Facility Launches in the Netherlands to 800,000 Tons of CO2

Europe’s Largest Carbon Capture Facility Launches in the Netherlands to 800,000 Tons of CO2

Europe has opened its largest industrial carbon capture and storage (CCS) facility at Yara International’s Sluiskil ammonia and fertilizer plant in the Netherlands. The facility was officially inaugurated on September 7, 2026, marking a major step for Europe’s push to reduce emissions from heavy industry. 

Yara expects the site to capture and liquefy up to 800,000 metric tons of CO2 per year from ammonia production. The captured carbon will then be shipped to Norway and permanently stored beneath the North Sea.

Over 15 years, the project is expected to capture and store about 12 million tons of CO2. The European Commission announced that this project is the largest commercial CCS facility in Europe. It is also one of the first complete cross-border systems for capturing, transporting, and permanently storing industrial CO2.

The project matters beyond Yara. It shows how captured industrial emissions could be moved across borders to storage sites, creating a model that other hard-to-abate industries could use. Svein Tore Holsether, President and CEO of Yara International, remarked:

“This is an important day for Yara and for European industry. The carbon capture facility in Sluiskil proves that large-scale industrial decarbonization is possible today. As global competition intensifies, Europe must find ways to cut emissions while keeping industry, jobs and critical value chains in Europe. That is exactly what this project is about.”

Capturing 800,000 Tons of CO2 Each Year

Yara’s Sluiskil site is one of Europe’s largest ammonia and fertilizer production facilities. Ammonia production generates process emissions that are difficult to eliminate through renewable power alone.

The new CCS system captures CO2 from the ammonia production process before it reaches the atmosphere. The gas is then compressed and liquefied at the Dutch site for transport.

Yara says the project can capture up to 800,000 tons of CO2 annually, equal to roughly 0.5%  of the Netherlands’ annual emissions. This is based on the company’s earlier comparison with 2022 national emissions.

The system is designed to operate as part of a wider transport and storage chain rather than as a standalone capture project. That distinction is important because capturing CO2 is only the first step. The carbon must also be transported safely and stored permanently.

Captured CO2 Will Travel From the Netherlands to Norway

After capture and liquefaction, the CO2 will be loaded onto ships operated by Northern Lights, the Norwegian CO2 transport and storage company.

The carbon will travel to Øygarden on Norway’s western coast. From there, Northern Lights will transport it through pipelines and inject it about 2,600 meters beneath the seabed on the Norwegian continental shelf.

Yara’s project will use two ships, each capable of carrying about 7,200 tons of liquefied CO2. The company previously outlined a schedule of up to two loaded ships per week.

The project is significant because it creates a cross-border CCS chain linking an industrial emitter in one country with a geological storage site in another.

Northern Lights is part of Norway’s Longship CCS program. Norway’s government has committed about NOK 22 billion in support for construction and operation of Longship. The total estimated cost of the broader project, including 10 years of operation, is about NOK 34 billion.

Longship’s first phase has an annual CO2 storage capacity of 1.5 million tons, with plans to expand to 5 million tons in a second phase. It already has agreements with Yara in the Netherlands, Ørsted in Denmark, and Stockholm Exergi in Sweden.

Europe largest carbon capture storage ccs facility

CCS Offers Heavy Industry a New Route to Cut Emissions

The fertilizer industry faces a difficult decarbonization challenge. Ammonia is essential for fertilizer production, but conventional ammonia manufacturing relies heavily on fossil fuels and also creates process emissions.

Electrification and low-carbon hydrogen can reduce some emissions, but they require major changes in energy supply and industrial processes. CCS can address emissions that are harder to remove through efficiency or renewable energy alone.

The European Commission has identified CCS as an important tool for industries such as chemicals, cement and waste management. It says Europe needs to be ready to capture at least 50 million tons of CO2 annually by 2030. That requirement could rise to around 280 million tons by 2040 and approximately 450 million tons by 2050.

The EU has also set a legally binding target of at least 50 million tons of annual CO2 injection capacity by 2030 under the Net-Zero Industry Act.

Europe annual carbon injection
Source: Clean Air Task Force

Against that target, Yara’s 800,000-ton annual capture capacity represents about 1.6% of the EU’s 2030 storage-injection goal. The comparison is not a direct measure of total emissions reduction because the EU target refers to injection capacity, while Yara’s figure refers to capture capacity. Still, it shows why projects at this scale are becoming important pieces of Europe’s carbon-management infrastructure.

CCS Meets Europe’s Carbon Pricing Market

The Sluiskil project is not a conventional carbon removal project. That distinction matters. The facility captures industrial process CO2 that would otherwise enter the atmosphere. It does not directly remove CO2 that was already in the atmosphere.

Under the EU’s carbon management framework, CCS can cover fossil, biogenic or atmospheric CO2, while permanent removals generally refer to CO2 captured from atmospheric or biogenic sources.

The immediate financial incentive for Yara is therefore linked to avoiding emissions and the cost of carbon allowances rather than generating a traditional voluntary carbon credit.

Yara says capturing and permanently storing the emissions will allow the company to avoid carbon taxation on the captured volumes. EU legislation also provides rules under the EU Emissions Trading System for captured CO2 that is transferred for permanent geological storage.

This creates an important connection between CCS infrastructure and Europe’s carbon pricing market.

As the EU ETS carbon price increases over time, the economic value of permanently storing industrial emissions can also increase. At the same time, the cost of capture, liquefaction, shipping, and storage remains an important factor in determining whether projects are commercially attractive.

Yara’s 2026 Capital Markets Day materials put the Sluiskil project’s net investment at about $200 million. It further reported that the project was 75% complete at the time of the presentation. Yara also described the project as having a double-digit expected internal rate of return before the blue premium.

Yara Is Linking CCS to Its Wider Climate Strategy

The Sluiskil project is part of Yara’s broader emissions reduction strategy. According to its 2025 Annual Report, Yara reduced its scope 1 and 2 emissions by 17% against its stated baseline by 2025. Its greenhouse gas emissions intensity reached 2.7 tons of CO2e per ton of nitrogen, meeting its 2025 target.

Yara carbon emissions
Source: Yara

Yara has a target to reduce absolute scope 1 and 2 emissions by 30% by 2030 from a 2019 baseline. It also has a 2030 target to reduce scope 3 emissions from the use of sold products by 11.1% from a 2021 baseline.

Yara reduction emissions target
Source: Yara

The company reported $15.7 billion in revenue in 2025 and operates in more than 60 countries. For Yara, CCS therefore serves two purposes:

  • reducing emissions from an existing industrial site and supporting the company’s longer-term effort to lower the carbon intensity of fertilizer production.                                                                                  

Putting Europe’s Carbon Strategy to the Test

Yara’s Sluiskil facility arrives at a critical point for Europe’s climate and industrial policy. The EU wants to rapidly expand carbon storage while protecting energy-intensive industries from rising carbon costs and international competition. The challenge is turning that ambition into commercially viable infrastructure.

The Sluiskil project provides a real-world test. It combines industrial capture, liquefaction, maritime transport and permanent geological storage across national borders.

The project also highlights an important point for carbon markets: not every tonne of CO2 permanently stored will become a tradable carbon removal credit. In this case, the main climate benefit comes from preventing industrial emissions from entering the atmosphere and allowing the emitter to manage its obligations under Europe’s carbon pricing system.

For Europe’s hard-to-abate industries, however, that could prove just as important as the growth of carbon removal markets.

The post Europe’s Largest Carbon Capture Facility Launches in the Netherlands to 800,000 Tons of CO2 appeared first on Carbon Credits.

Copper Price Hits All-Time High as AI, Grid Demand and Supply Risks Fuel Rally

Copper has hit another record high as supply disruptions, tight inventories and growing demand from artificial intelligence (AI), power grids and electrification push the metal deeper into record territory. Three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) reached $14,728 per metric ton on September 8. September Comex copper also touched a record $6.739 per pound. LME copper has gained nearly 18% in 2026.  The rally is being driven by both short-term supply concerns and a deeper problem: the world may not be developing enough new copper mines to meet future demand. AI is adding to that pressure, but it is only one part of the story. Power grids, electric vehicles, renewable energy and other infrastructure are also increasing copper demand. US Tariff Fears Tighten Global Supply A major factor behind the latest copper price rally is uncertainty over US trade policy. Washington has already imposed tariffs on some copper products and has considered further measures. A 2025 presidential proclamation directed the Commerce Department to assess whether a 15% tariff on refined copper from January 1, 2027, rising to 30% in 2028, would be warranted. That possibility has changed global trade flows. Traders have moved more copper into the United States ahead of potential tariffs. This has increased US inventories while reducing available stocks in other major markets. The result is a split market. Copper may be sitting in US warehouses, but other regions can still face tighter supplies. That can push copper prices higher as buyers compete for metal that is available outside the US. Global Mine Supply Is Starting to Crack The physical supply picture is also supporting prices. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported that global copper mine production fell 1.1% in the first half of 2026. Copper concentrate output fell 2.6%. Declines in major producing countries, including Chile, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, outweighed gains elsewhere.  Source: Bloomberg Chile shows the scale of the problem. Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, reported first-half 2026 production of 564,000 metric tons, down 11% from 634,000 tons a year earlier. Lower output was linked mainly to operational restrictions at its El Teniente mine, along with declines at other operations.  The wider mining industry faces structural limits, too. The International Energy Agency says average copper ore grades have fallen 40% since 1991, while average capital intensity for expanding existing projects has risen 65% since 2020. New copper projects also take about 17 years on average from discovery to production.  That makes the current supply shortage difficult to fix quickly. AI Adds Fuel to Copper’s Demand Boom AI has become a new source of copper demand. Data centers use copper in electrical systems, power distribution, cooling equipment, and connections. But their bigger impact comes from the new power infrastructure needed to support them. The IEA expects global data center electricity use to reach about 945 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2030, roughly double the 2024 level. Electricity demand from accelerated servers, driven mainly by AI, is expected to grow by around 30% per year in the agency’s base case.  BHP estimates that each additional $200 billion in annual data center investment could require the equivalent of a new 150,000-ton-per-year copper mine to support computer hardware and power infrastructure. It also expects copper demand tied to data centers to rise about sixfold between 2024 and 2050, reaching around 3 million tons per year.  Still, AI is not the only demand driver. SEE MORE: Why Copper Could Be One of the Biggest Commodity Bets of the AI Era Electrification Makes Copper a Critical Energy Metal Copper is essential to the broader energy transition. It is widely used in transmission lines, transformers, electric vehicles, charging networks, renewable power systems, and battery storage. The IEA estimates that clean energy demand for copper could increase from 7.7 million tons in 2024 to 10.9 million tons in 2030 and 12.2 million tons in 2040 under its Stated Policies Scenario. Total copper demand could reach 34.1 million tons by 2040.  That creates a direct link between copper markets and decarbonization. Copper is not a carbon credit or a carbon removal asset. However, it is a critical material for technologies that can reduce emissions. Grid expansion, renewable power and vehicle electrification all depend on reliable copper supply. If copper shortages delay those projects, they could also slow the pace of emissions reductions. The Supply Gap Could Get Much Larger The biggest concern is not only today's shortage but the potential gap later this decade and beyond. The IEA's Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 projects a 25% copper supply deficit by 2035 based on the current pipeline of announced projects.  S&P Global sees an even larger risk. Its 2026 study estimates global copper demand will rise from about 28 million tons in 2025 to 42 million tons in 2040, a 50% increase. Without enough new supply, the market could face a potential 10 million-ton annual shortfall by 2040.   The drivers go well beyond AI. S&P points to traditional economic growth, the energy transition, data centers, and defense infrastructure as major sources of future demand. That makes copper one of the most important physical constraints for the global energy and digital buildout. Recycling Can Help, But Not Fast Enough Recycling can help, but it cannot solve the problem by itself. The IEA says available copper scrap could rise from about 16 million tons today to 19 million tons in 2030 and 27 million tons by 2050 under its Accelerated Policy Scenario.  Copper is highly recyclable, but much of the metal installed today remains in long-lived products and infrastructure. That limits how much scrap can return to the market in the near term. New mines will therefore remain necessary as electricity networks, data centers and clean energy infrastructure expand. At the same time, mining companies face declining ore grades, higher development costs and long permitting timelines. Record Prices Could Finally Unlock New Mines Record prices should improve the economics of new copper projects and encourage more recycling. However, high prices alone cannot solve a supply problem that has been building for years. S&P Global estimates that 2025 copper prices were high enough to make only about 60% of identified new projects potentially profitable.  That highlights the challenge. Even when copper prices rise sharply, some deposits may still be too expensive or difficult to develop. The market therefore needs both higher investment and faster project development. Copper’s Rally Has More Than AI Behind It Copper's latest record is partly linked to US tariff fears and changing inventory flows. Yet, the underlying story is much broader. Mine production fell in the first half of 2026. Major producers are facing operational problems. At the same time, AI infrastructure, grid investment, electric vehicles and renewable energy are creating new demand. The IEA expects a major supply deficit by 2035, while S&P Global sees the potential for a 10 million-ton annual shortfall by 2040 without significant new investment. That does not mean copper prices can only rise. High prices can weaken demand, encourage recycling and accelerate new investment. Yet, the structural trend is clear: the global economy is becoming more dependent on copper at the same time that new supply is becoming harder and slower to develop. For the energy transition, that makes copper more than an industrial commodity. It is becoming a critical material that could help determine how quickly the world can build cleaner power systems and the infrastructure needed to reduce emissions. READ MORE: Copper Prices Surge Past $14,800: Will New Mines Help Ease the Supply Crunch?

Copper price has hit another record high as supply disruptions, tight inventories and growing demand from artificial intelligence (AI), power grids and electrification push the metal deeper into record territory.

Three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) reached $14,728 per metric ton on September 8. September Comex copper also touched a record $6.739 per pound. LME copper has gained nearly 18% in 2026. 

The rally is being driven by both short-term supply concerns and a deeper problem: the world may not be developing enough new copper mines to meet future demand. AI is adding to that pressure, but it is only one part of the story. Power grids, electric vehicles, renewable energy and other infrastructure are also increasing copper demand.

copper price

US Tariff Fears Tighten Global Supply

A major factor behind the latest copper price rally is uncertainty over US trade policy. Washington has already imposed tariffs on some copper products and has considered further measures.

A 2025 presidential proclamation directed the Commerce Department to assess whether a 15% tariff on refined copper from January 1, 2027, rising to 30% in 2028, would be warranted. That possibility has changed global trade flows.

Traders have moved more copper into the United States ahead of potential tariffs. This has increased US inventories while reducing available stocks in other major markets.

The result is a split market. Copper may be sitting in US warehouses, but other regions can still face tighter supplies. That can push copper prices higher as buyers compete for metal that is available outside the US.

Global Mine Supply Is Starting to Crack

The physical supply picture is also supporting prices. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported that global copper mine production fell 1.1% in the first half of 2026. Copper concentrate output fell 2.6%. Declines in major producing countries, including Chile, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, outweighed gains elsewhere. 

copper mine supply
Source: Bloomberg

Chile shows the scale of the problem. Codelco, the world’s largest copper producer, reported first-half 2026 production of 564,000 metric tons, down 11% from 634,000 tons a year earlier. Lower output was linked mainly to operational restrictions at its El Teniente mine, along with declines at other operations. 

The wider mining industry faces structural limits, too.

The International Energy Agency says average copper ore grades have fallen 40% since 1991, while average capital intensity for expanding existing projects has risen 65% since 2020. New copper projects also take about 17 years on average from discovery to production. 

That makes the current supply shortage difficult to fix quickly.

AI Adds Fuel to Copper’s Demand Boom

AI has become a new source of copper demand. Data centers use copper in electrical systems, power distribution, cooling equipment, and connections. But their bigger impact comes from the new power infrastructure needed to support them.

The IEA expects global data center electricity use to reach about 945 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2030, roughly double the 2024 level. Electricity demand from accelerated servers, driven mainly by AI, is expected to grow by around 30% per year in the agency’s base case. 

BHP estimates that each additional $200 billion in annual data center investment could require the equivalent of a new 150,000-ton-per-year copper mine to support computer hardware and power infrastructure. It also expects copper demand tied to data centers to rise about sixfold between 2024 and 2050, reaching around 3 million tons per year. 

copper demand in data centers 2030 IEA

Still, AI is not the only demand driver.

SEE MORE: Why Copper Could Be One of the Biggest Commodity Bets of the AI Era

Electrification Makes Copper a Critical Energy Metal

Copper is essential to the broader energy transition. It is widely used in transmission lines, transformers, electric vehicles, charging networks, renewable power systems, and battery storage.

The IEA estimates that clean energy demand for copper could increase from 7.7 million tons in 2024 to 10.9 million tons in 2030 and 12.2 million tons in 2040 under its Stated Policies Scenario. Total copper demand could reach 34.1 million tons by 2040. 

That creates a direct link between copper markets and decarbonization.

Copper is not a carbon credit or a carbon removal asset. However, it is a critical material for technologies that can reduce emissions. Grid expansion, renewable power and vehicle electrification all depend on reliable copper supply.

If copper shortages delay those projects, they could also slow the pace of emissions reductions.

The Supply Gap Could Get Much Larger

The biggest concern is not only today’s shortage but the potential gap later this decade and beyond. The IEA’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 projects a 25% copper supply deficit by 2035 based on the current pipeline of announced projects. 

S&P Global sees an even larger risk. Its 2026 study estimates global copper demand will rise from about 28 million tons in 2025 to 42 million tons in 2040, a 50% increase. Without enough new supply, the market could face a potential 10 million-ton annual shortfall by 2040.  

copper market balance supply and demand s&p

The drivers go well beyond AI. S&P points to traditional economic growth, the energy transition, data centers, and defense infrastructure as major sources of future demand. That makes copper one of the most important physical constraints for the global energy and digital buildout.

Recycling Can Help, But Not Fast Enough

Recycling can help, but it cannot solve the problem by itself. The IEA says available copper scrap could rise from about 16 million tons today to 19 million tons in 2030 and 27 million tons by 2050 under its Accelerated Policy Scenario. 

Copper is highly recyclable, but much of the metal installed today remains in long-lived products and infrastructure. That limits how much scrap can return to the market in the near term.

New mines will therefore remain necessary as electricity networks, data centers and clean energy infrastructure expand. At the same time, mining companies face declining ore grades, higher development costs and long permitting timelines.

Record Prices Could Finally Unlock New Mines

Record prices should improve the economics of new copper projects and encourage more recycling. However, high prices alone cannot solve a supply problem that has been building for years.

copper prices

S&P Global estimates that 2025 copper prices were high enough to make only about 60% of identified new projects potentially profitable.  That highlights the challenge. Even when copper prices rise sharply, some deposits may still be too expensive or difficult to develop.

The market therefore needs both higher investment and faster project development.

Copper’s Rally Has More Than AI Behind It

Copper’s latest record is partly linked to US tariff fears and changing inventory flows. Yet, the underlying story is much broader.

Mine production fell in the first half of 2026. Major producers are facing operational problems. At the same time, AI infrastructure, grid investment, electric vehicles and renewable energy are creating new demand.

The IEA expects a major supply deficit by 2035, while S&P Global sees the potential for a 10 million-ton annual shortfall by 2040 without significant new investment. That does not mean copper prices can only rise. High prices can weaken demand, encourage recycling and accelerate new investment.

Yet, the structural trend is clear: the global economy is becoming more dependent on copper at the same time that new supply is becoming harder and slower to develop.

For the energy transition, that makes copper more than an industrial commodity. It is becoming a critical material that could help determine how quickly the world can build cleaner power systems and the infrastructure needed to reduce emissions.

The post Copper Price Hits All-Time High as AI, Grid Demand and Supply Risks Fuel Rally appeared first on Carbon Credits.

Is the Cheap Carbon Credit Era Coming to an End?

Carbon credit prices have been under pressure for several years, but the long-term outlook for the voluntary carbon market (VCM) could be very different.

Patch’s A Buyer’s Guide to Carbon Credits points to a potential turning point. The report argues that demand for high-quality carbon credits could eventually outpace available supply, creating upward pressure on prices as companies move closer to net-zero targets.

The market has already experienced a major correction. But the forces that could drive the next phase are beginning to look different.

For buyers, the question may soon shift from how cheaply they can purchase carbon credits to whether they can secure enough high-quality credits at all.

Why Carbon Credit Prices Collapsed After the VCM Boom

The voluntary carbon market experienced explosive growth in 2021. According to Patch, the market quadrupled year over year that year, reaching about $2 billion. At the time, forecasts suggested the VCM could grow to between $10 billion and $40 billion by 2030.

Instead, demand weakened sharply.

  • Carbon credit purchases and retirements fell to around 155 million credits in 2022 from 161 million in 2021, a decline of roughly 4%.

Unlocking the Triggers 

Concerns over credit quality were a major factor. High-profile investigations into some Verra REDD+ projects raised questions about whether certain credits delivered the climate benefits claimed by project developers.

The collapse of the crypto market added another layer of pressure. Crypto investors had poured significant capital into carbon credits during the market’s boom, and their retreat contributed to weaker demand.

Nature-based credits were especially vulnerable. Patch noted that the supply of REDD+ credits fell by 32%, yet buyers remained hesitant. Average prices for nature-based credits subsequently dropped below $2.

Carbon credits

Note: In this market, three primary types of offsets are traded – NGEO, GEO (General Emissions Offsets), and CGEO (Certified Global Emissions Offsets).

The correction exposed a fundamental weakness in the VCM. Much of the demand was behavioral and highly sensitive to price, market sentiment, and concerns over corporate climate claims.

But Patch argues that this is unlikely to define the market forever.

Carbon Credit Supply Could Fall Behind Future Demand

One of the most important findings in Patch’s report is the growing gap between investment in future carbon-credit supply and current market sales.

The report cites Trove Research, which estimated that capital investment in carbon-credit projects was about five times greater than overall carbon-credit sales.

In 2022, the primary market, based on retired credits, was worth approximately $1.5 billion. Capital investment in projects, meanwhile, reached around $7.5 billion.

That imbalance is significant.

It suggests that investors and project developers were committing substantial capital to creating future carbon-credit supply despite relatively weak demand at the time.

The bigger question is whether that future supply will be enough.

Patch cited Trove Research projections showing that demand could exceed supply by 2030 even under lower-demand scenarios. Under a pathway consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C, the imbalance could emerge earlier.

This could create a very different market environment from the one that produced today’s low prices.

If demand accelerates faster than new projects can deliver credible credits, buyers could find themselves competing for a limited supply.

carbon credits VCM
Source: Patch

Carbon Credit Demand Could Become Less Price-Sensitive

Patch separates carbon-credit demand into two broad categories: behavioral demand and fundamental demand.

Behavioral demand tends to respond quickly to market conditions. Companies may reduce purchases when credit prices rise, economic conditions deteriorate, or concerns about the credibility of offsets increase.

Fundamental demand is more structural.

It comes from companies that have made public climate commitments and eventually need to address emissions that cannot be eliminated through internal reductions alone.

That distinction could become increasingly important as corporate net-zero deadlines approach.

The cost of eliminating the final portion of emissions can be considerably higher than reducing emissions through easier efficiency or clean-energy measures. This is particularly relevant for difficult-to-abate sectors such as aviation, shipping and heavy industry.

As a result, carbon credits could become less discretionary.

Could Carbon Credit Prices Reach $150 by 2035?

Companies may eventually have fewer options for addressing residual emissions, making their demand less sensitive to price.

Patch cited EY Net Zero Centre projections that put carbon prices between $80 and $150 by 2035 across different climate scenarios.

That is far above the prices currently seen across much of the voluntary market.

The key point is not that every carbon credit will reach those levels. Rather, it illustrates how dramatically prices could change if structural climate demand begins to outweigh short-term buyer sentiment.

carbon credit prices
Source: Patch

High-Quality Carbon Credits Are Already Commanding a Premium

Recent data from Sylvera offers an important update to Patch’s longer-term outlook.

The latest figures suggest that buyers are already becoming more selective about where they spend their carbon budgets.

  • In Q2 2026, carbon credit retirements reached 38.55 million, down 10% from the same quarter a year earlier. First-half retirements stood at 89.27 million, also below the previous year’s level.

On the surface, declining retirement volumes could suggest that demand remains weak.

However, pricing tells a more complicated story.

carbon credit prices
Source: Sylvera

Buyers Are Shifting Toward Better Credits

Sylvera’s Q1 2026 data showed that average carbon credit prices increased to $5.69 from $5.60 despite an 8% decline in retirement volumes. Investment-grade BBB+ credits commanded an average price of $20.10, up from $18.10.

The pattern is important because it shows that the market is not moving uniformly.

Buyers may be purchasing fewer credits overall while allocating more money toward credits they consider higher quality.

Sylvera’s 2025 data reinforces the trend. Carbon credit retirements declined 4.5% to 168 million, but the market’s total value increased 6% to $1.04 billion.

High-quality BB+ credits also increased their share of retirements from 44% to 50% and accounted for 70% of total spending.

The market is therefore becoming increasingly differentiated.

Lower-quality or oversupplied credits can remain cheap, while scarce credits that meet stronger integrity expectations can command substantial premiums.

carbon credit prices
Source: Sylvera

Why Buyers May Need to Lock In Carbon Credits Early

Patch’s analysis makes a strong case for buyers to think beyond today’s spot prices.

Long-term carbon-credit purchase agreements can provide companies with greater certainty around future volumes and pricing. At the same time, they give project developers the revenue visibility needed to secure financing and expand their operations.

This could be particularly important for carbon removal.

New removal projects often require significant upfront investment and can take years to develop. If corporate demand accelerates before enough projects reach commercial scale, buyers could face a shortage of available supply.

Early purchasing can therefore serve two purposes.

It can protect buyers from potential future price increases while also helping developers build the supply needed to meet future demand.

However, locking in supply does not mean simply buying the cheapest credits available.

The market’s experience over the past several years has demonstrated why quality matters. Questions around additionality, permanence, measurement, verification, and project-level risks can significantly affect the long-term value of a credit.

The objective should be to secure credible supply at a price that remains attractive against potentially higher future costs.

The Carbon Market Is Splitting Into Two Price Tiers

Patch’s report was produced during a period when the VCM was dealing with a major credibility and demand crisis. The latest market data suggests that the market is not disappearing. Instead, it is becoming more selective.

Overall demand remains uneven, but spending is increasingly concentrated in higher-quality credits.

That could eventually produce a two-tier market.

Lower-quality and oversupplied credits could continue trading at relatively low prices. Meanwhile, high-integrity reduction and removal credits could become increasingly expensive as buyers compete for limited supply.

This distinction is critical for companies planning long-term climate strategies.

Patch’s central argument remains compelling: companies that wait until carbon-credit demand becomes urgent could face tighter availability and higher prices.

Those that secure credible long-term supply earlier may have greater control over both cost and access.

The voluntary carbon market has already shown how quickly prices and buyer sentiment can change.

The next major shift could come from the opposite direction. As corporate climate commitments become more difficult to defer and emissions reductions become increasingly expensive at the margin, fundamental demand could begin to dominate behavioral demand.

CARBON CREDITS MARKET

The bottom line is, if that happens, the biggest risk for carbon-credit buyers may no longer be paying too much.

It could be not having enough high-quality credits to buy.

The post Is the Cheap Carbon Credit Era Coming to an End? appeared first on Carbon Credits.

UK Recognizes India’s Carbon Scheme Under CBAM, Easing Exporters’ Carbon Costs

UK Recognizes India’s Carbon Scheme Under CBAM, Easing Exporters’ Carbon Costs

The UK has recognized India’s Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS) as a qualifying carbon pricing scheme under its upcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The move could reduce the carbon cost faced by Indian exporters when the UK’s CBAM begins on January 1, 2027.

Under UK rules, qualifying carbon prices already paid on emissions embodied in imported goods may be taken into account when calculating the importer’s CBAM liability. This is designed to prevent the same emissions from being priced twice.

India’s CCTS now appears on the UK’s official list of qualifying overseas carbon pricing schemes. The list also includes the EU Emissions Trading System, China’s national ETS, Japan’s GX-ETS, Korea’s ETS, Singapore’s carbon tax and South Africa’s carbon tax.

The recognition is important for Indian companies selling carbon-intensive goods into the UK. However, it does not mean every Indian carbon credit will automatically reduce a CBAM bill. Importers must meet detailed UK rules on emissions data, carbon pricing and independent verification.

UK’s Carbon Border Tax Arrives in 2027

The UK CBAM will begin on January 1, 2027, covering imports of selected carbon-intensive products from the aluminium, cement, fertiliser, hydrogen, and iron and steel sectors.

The policy is designed to ensure that imported goods face a carbon cost broadly comparable with products made by UK manufacturers. One of its main goals is to reduce carbon leakage, where production moves to countries with weaker climate policies.

UK importers will generally need to register when they expect to import at least £50,000 of CBAM goods within the next 30 days. The threshold can also be assessed using imports during the previous 12 months. This means the system will mainly affect businesses with significant trade in covered products.

The UK government has also created a system for claiming Carbon Price Relief. This allows importers to reduce their CBAM liability where the relevant goods have already been subject to an eligible carbon price overseas.

India’s CCTS Can Reduce UK Carbon Costs

India’s inclusion on the UK’s qualifying list is important because its national carbon market is now moving into operation. Under the CCTS, India is developing a compliance mechanism for energy-intensive industries.

The government sets greenhouse gas emissions-intensity targets for covered businesses. Companies that perform better than their targets can receive Carbon Credit Certificates, while those that fall short may need certificates to meet their obligations.

INDIA CCTS
Source: Bicon Consultants

The scheme also includes an offset mechanism for eligible projects outside the obligated industrial sector. This framework covers activities that can generate emissions reductions or removals in areas such as energy, industry, agriculture, forestry, waste, transport and carbon capture, utilization and storage.

However, this distinction is critical for exporters. The UK’s CBAM relief is linked to qualifying carbon prices applied to the embodied emissions in imported goods. Simply purchasing a voluntary carbon credit does not automatically create a CBAM deduction.

The UK requires evidence showing that the relevant emissions were subject to a qualifying pricing scheme.

Carbon Data and Verification Will Make or Break Relief

The UK has placed strong emphasis on verification. To claim Carbon Price Relief, an importer must obtain a carbon pricing verification form from the relevant installation, factory, or supply chain.

The form must then be completed by an independent verifier that meets the UK’s requirements. Without the required documentation and verification, the importer cannot claim the relief. The amount of relief also depends on the actual carbon price and the emissions covered by that price.

Importers must calculate the effective carbon price and determine how much of the embodied emissions were subject to an eligible scheme. Any foreign currency relief must then be converted into pounds using UK-published exchange rates.

This makes accurate carbon accounting increasingly important for Indian exporters. Companies will need reliable data on how much CO2 they emit, how those emissions are measured and what carbon costs they have actually paid.

India Is Building a National Carbon Market

The UK’s decision comes as India moves from designing its carbon market toward implementation. India has established rules and procedures for its CCTS and is developing the systems needed to measure, report, and verify emissions and carbon projects.

The Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) has also been working on the accreditation of independent carbon verification agencies. The agencies will play a key role in checking emissions and project claims under the Indian market.

india carbon market ccts
Source: lawrbit

The CCTS is part of India’s wider shift away from its earlier Perform, Achieve and Trade approach toward a national carbon market.

The timing is significant. India is developing its domestic carbon pricing system at almost the same time the UK is preparing to impose a carbon cost on certain imports. That creates a direct connection between domestic climate policy and international trade.

SEE MORE: India’s Carbon Market Portal Goes Live as Carbon Credit Trading Nears

Metals Could Face the Biggest Impact

The recognition could be particularly important for India’s steel and aluminium industries. Both sectors are covered by India’s carbon market framework and the UK CBAM. That gives producers in these industries a potential way to reduce their UK border carbon liability where qualifying domestic carbon prices have been paid, and the UK requirements are met.

The issue is becoming more important as trade between the two countries expands.

The UK-India Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement entered into force on July 15, 2026. UK government data shows that total trade between the two countries was worth about £48 billion in 2025.

The agreement provides tariff reductions across a wide range of products, with 99% of Indian goods entering the UK eventually benefiting from zero or reduced tariffs. But lower tariffs do not remove carbon-related costs.

For carbon-intensive products, exporters will have to consider both traditional trade costs and the new cost of embedded emissions under CBAM. Recognizing India’s carbon pricing system could help limit that additional burden.

Carbon Data Is Becoming Part of the Export Toolkit

The wider significance of the UK’s decision goes beyond the immediate tax benefit. Carbon information is increasingly becoming part of international trade. Exporters of covered products will need to understand:

  • the emissions generated during production,
  • how those emissions were calculated, and
  • whether a qualifying carbon price was paid.

The UK CBAM framework effectively turns this information into part of the import process.

For Indian manufacturers, that could encourage better emissions monitoring and reporting. It could also push companies to invest in cleaner production methods, because lower emissions can translate into lower carbon costs at the border.

This could create a growing competitive advantage for producers that can demonstrate lower emissions and strong carbon-accounting systems.

UK and EU Carbon Borders Point to a New Trade Era

The UK is not alone in linking carbon pricing with international trade. The European Union’s CBAM also allows a carbon price paid in the country of production to be taken into account when determining the border charge, provided it meets the EU’s rules.

EU cbam vs UK cbam
Source: KPMG

The UK has adopted a similar principle while creating its own calculation and verification framework. This suggests a wider trend: national carbon markets are becoming increasingly connected to global trade rules.

For exporters, carbon pricing is no longer only a domestic policy issue. It can affect whether products remain competitive in foreign markets.

The UK’s recognition of India’s CCTS is a relatively small regulatory step, but it could have a wider effect.

It gives Indian exporters in covered sectors a clearer path to claim relief where they have already paid an eligible domestic carbon price. At the same time, it gives India’s emerging carbon market an international dimension. Also, the decision reduces one important risk: double carbon pricing on the same emissions.

For Indian exporters, managing emissions is increasingly more than an environmental responsibility. It is also becoming an important part of managing trade costs and staying competitive in global markets.

The post UK Recognizes India’s Carbon Scheme Under CBAM, Easing Exporters’ Carbon Costs appeared first on Carbon Credits.

Microsoft Signs Long-Term PPA for Cypress Creek’s 104 MW Washington Solar Project

Cypress Creek Energy has brought its new Ostrea Solar project online in Washington state, adding 104 MWdc of solar capacity to a region facing rapidly rising electricity demand.

The $180 million project in Yakima County is backed by a long-term power purchase agreement (PPA) with Microsoft (MSFT Stock). The technology giant will purchase electricity and environmental products generated by the facility, making it the project’s long-term offtaker.

Ostrea Solar is the latest example of how large technology companies are using long-term clean energy contracts to secure renewable power while supporting new generation capacity.

The project began commercial operations as Washington’s economy continues to expand. According to Cypress Creek, the state recorded annualized real GDP growth of 4.5% in the first quarter of 2026, more than twice the national rate. The information sector was one of the main contributors, highlighting the growing relationship between Washington’s technology economy and electricity demand.

Microsoft Backs New Washington Solar Capacity

Ostrea Solar is connected to the Bonneville Power Administration transmission system and provides 80 MWac of generation capacity to the regional grid.

ostrea solar cypress creek
Source: Cypress Creek Energy

Microsoft’s agreement covers both the electricity and environmental products produced by the facility. While the company has been expanding its renewable energy procurement across the U.S., projects such as Ostrea are particularly important because they add new generation rather than simply relying on existing clean power.

The timing is significant. Electricity consumption is rising as technology companies, data centers and other businesses expand their operations. More power generation and transmission infrastructure will be needed to meet that demand while supporting Washington’s broader economic growth.

Cypress Creek CEO Kevin Smith said the project demonstrates how new power capacity can be developed while also creating benefits for local communities and protecting the land around energy projects.

The project represents a private investment of approximately $180 million in Washington’s energy infrastructure.

U.S. Solar Capacity Continues to Climb

Ostrea is entering a U.S. solar market that has expanded rapidly over the past decade.

  • The U.S. had about 225.6 GW of estimated solar photovoltaic capacity by June 2026, including utility-scale and small-scale systems, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Solar is also expected to remain a major source of new U.S. electricity capacity. The EIA expects solar to account for 51% of planned utility-scale generating capacity additions in 2026. Developers are expected to add another 86 GW of total utility-scale capacity this year if all planned projects are completed.

US solar

The growing solar fleet is already having an impact on electricity generation. Utility-scale solar generation increased 34% in 2025, while small-scale solar generation rose 11%, according to the EIA.

Projects such as Ostrea therefore fit into a much larger shift in the U.S. power market, where renewable generation is increasingly being built to serve utilities and large corporate customers.

Cypress Creek Prioritizes Land Conservation at Ostrea Solar

Cypress Creek says Ostrea was developed with land management and environmental protection as key priorities.

During development, the company worked with Washington’s Energy Facility Site Evaluation Council and the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife. The project design was modified to conserve about 275 acres of shrubsteppe habitat.

Shrubsteppe is an important ecosystem in Washington, supporting a range of plants and wildlife. Much of the state’s historic shrubsteppe has been lost or degraded because of agriculture and development.

Ostrea also includes wildlife corridors intended to preserve movement through the project area. Those corridors can help species such as Rocky Mountain elk continue to move across the landscape.

Land restoration is another part of the project’s environmental strategy.

Some areas of the site were formerly used as cropland but had not been actively farmed for more than two decades. Invasive and non-native vegetation had taken hold in parts of the property.

land conservation
Source: Cypress Creek Energy

Promising Long-Term Stewardship

During construction, Cypress Creek removed invasive plants and restored disturbed areas. The company then planted a mix of grasses and flowering species designed to support native vegetation and pollinators.

The approach highlights a broader issue facing utility-scale solar development. Solar facilities require land, but the entire project area is not covered by panels. Vegetation can remain beneath and around many solar arrays, allowing developers to combine electricity generation with land management.

Cypress Creek plans to own and operate Ostrea for up to 40 years. The company says its goal is to leave the property in good condition when the project’s operating life ends, preserving options for future land use.

$180 Million Investment Creates Local Economic Benefits

Beyond electricity generation, Ostrea is expected to provide a long-term economic contribution to Yakima County.

Cypress Creek estimates the project will generate approximately $13.3 million in state and local tax revenue over its operating life.

Construction was also a significant source of employment. About 300 jobs were created during the development and construction phase, with workers paid prevailing wages.

The project included an apprenticeship program designed to provide workers with experience in construction trades. Around 75 apprentices contributed approximately 39,000 hours to the project.

PCL Solar Constructors USA served as the engineering, procurement, and construction contractor.

Cypress Creek also reported that the project completed construction without a recordable injury or incident.

Community Investment Extends Beyond the Solar Site

The company has also made investments in the surrounding Yakima community.

Cypress Creek contributed $50,000 toward a new aquatic center at Martin Luther King Jr. Park in Yakima. It also participated in a back-to-school initiative at Moxee Elementary School with PCL.

Through its Energizing Tomorrow’s Leaders program, the company has provided scholarships to 14 Yakima County students since 2023. The scholarships represent $18,500 in educational support.

The company has also partnered with the Oregon Institute of Technology on scholarships and educational opportunities for students pursuing energy-related careers.

These initiatives are designed to extend the economic benefits of the project beyond construction and electricity generation.

Microsoft Links Renewable Energy to Rising Power Demand

Microsoft already operates one of the largest corporate renewable energy portfolios globally. According to its sustainability reporting, it has 40 gigawatts (GW) of contracted capacity across 26 countries. This scale puts Microsoft among the world’s largest corporate buyers of clean electricity.

Its renewable energy strategy is increasingly tied to the growing electricity needs of digital infrastructure, particularly as data centers and artificial intelligence workloads expand.

microsoft clean energy
Data Source: Microsoft

Ostrea Shows the Next Phase of Solar Development

Ostrea combines corporate clean energy demand with private investment, job creation, land restoration, and long-term environmental management. Cypress Creek will operate and maintain the facility throughout its expected operating life, including its electricity generation, vegetation management, and land stewardship.

As U.S. solar capacity continues to expand, projects such as Ostrea show that renewable development is about more than adding panels. New projects will increasingly need to balance rising power demand with grid needs, environmental protection, and economic benefits for local communities.

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South Africa’s Power Sector Emissions Fall 19% as Renewables Gain Ground, Says BNEF

South Africa’s power sector is beginning to show signs of a structural shift as renewable energy expands and aging coal plants face growing pressure.

  • Power-sector emissions fell 19% in 2025 to 148 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (MtCO2), according to BloombergNEF’s South Africa Transition Factbook 2026. The decline marks the largest annual drop under BloombergNEF’s Economic Transition Scenario (ETS).

The reduction is particularly important because electricity generation remains one of South Africa’s biggest sources of carbon emissions. Coal continues to dominate the country’s power system, but its role is gradually shrinking as solar, wind and battery storage gain momentum.

However, South Africa’s energy transition is far from complete. The country must expand clean power while maintaining grid reliability, replacing aging coal capacity and building enough transmission infrastructure to connect new renewable projects.

South Africa’s Power-Sector Emissions Face a Long Decline

The emission reduction came despite a slight increase in coal generation. Coal output rose about 1% as newer Kusile units improved the efficiency of the coal fleet. At the same time, electricity generation from oil-fired plants, including Acacia and Port Rex, declined.

The development highlights an important feature of South Africa’s transition. Improving the efficiency of existing generation can lower emissions even before large amounts of coal capacity are retired.

Still, lasting emissions reductions will depend on changing the country’s electricity mix.

  • BloombergNEF expects power-sector emissions to fall 52% from 2025 levels by 2050 under its Economic Transition Scenario. Emissions would reach about 71 MtCO2 by then.
  • The decline would be far greater under BloombergNEF’s Net Zero Scenario. Under that pathway, power-sector emissions could fall to only 1.9 MtCO2 by 2050.

Such a transformation would require a much faster expansion of renewable energy, alongside nuclear, gas, battery storage and carbon capture technologies.

south africa power emission

Coal Remains the Biggest Emissions Challenge

South Africa’s electricity system remains heavily dependent on coal.

  • The country had approximately 67 gigawatts (GW) of installed power capacity in 2025, including around 43 GW of coal capacity. Coal generated approximately 185 terawatt-hours (TWh), accounting for 78% of total electricity generation.

Even so, coal’s dominance has weakened over the past decade. Its share of electricity generation fell from about 90% in 2015 to 78% in 2025.

Meanwhile, solar and wind have moved in the opposite direction. Their combined share of generation increased from just 2% in 2015 to 13% in 2025.

The age of South Africa’s coal fleet adds further pressure. More than 12 GW of coal capacity was already over 40 years old in 2025, while another 16 GW was between 30 and 40 years old.

Consequently, coal retirements are becoming an increasingly important part of the country’s emissions strategy.

South Africa’s 2025 Integrated Resource Plan targets retiring around 8 GW of coal capacity by 2030. The plan also calls for 14 GW of renewable energy and 6 GW of gas capacity to replace some of the retiring generation.

South Africa coal
Source: BNEF

Solar and Wind Could Reshape South Africa’s Power Mix

Renewable energy is expected to grow in importance as South Africa moves away from its coal-heavy electricity system. The forecasts combined solar and wind capacity to rise from around 18 GW in 2025 to 38 GW by 2030.

  • Solar is expected to account for much of this growth. Utility-scale solar capacity could increase from 7.8 GW in 2025 to 14.8 GW in 2030.
  • Small-scale solar is also expanding rapidly. The capacity in this segment is expected to more than double to approximately 13.4 GW by 2030.
  • Wind power will contribute as well, with capacity expected to reach roughly 10 GW by the end of the decade.

BNEF South africa solar and wind

Battery storage will become increasingly important alongside these technologies. Solar and wind output varies according to weather conditions and time of day. Storage can help shift electricity into periods when demand is higher, reducing the need to rely on fossil-fuel generation.

As a result, South Africa’s energy transition is not simply about replacing coal with renewable power. It also requires a more flexible electricity system capable of integrating large amounts of variable renewable generation.

Corporate Renewable Energy Deals Are Accelerating

Private companies are also playing a growing role in South Africa’s renewable energy expansion.

Corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs) are expected to support a significant portion of new utility-scale solar and wind projects. They could support 73% of the expected 2.3 GW of utility-scale solar and wind additions in 2026.

Companies supported approximately 670 MW, or 48%, of tracked renewable capacity added in 2025. Major corporate buyers have included mining and industrial companies such as Sibanye Stillwater, Rio Tinto, Tronox, Air Liquide and Sasol.

Since 2020, companies in South Africa have signed agreements to procure around 5 GW of clean electricity.

This trend could become increasingly important for the country’s emissions outlook. Businesses can secure renewable electricity directly while developers gain greater certainty over future revenues.

At the same time, declining renewable costs are making clean power increasingly competitive with conventional generation.

Grid Investment Could Determine the Speed of Decarbonization

South Africa’s renewable ambitions face one major obstacle: the power grid.

More solar and wind projects will require additional transmission infrastructure to connect new generation and move electricity to areas with high demand.

Without sufficient grid capacity, renewable projects can face delays even when financing and demand are available.

Battery storage could help address some of the system’s flexibility needs. However, storage alone cannot replace the need for a stronger transmission network.

The country is also moving toward greater private-sector participation in electricity markets. These reforms could create additional opportunities for renewable developers, storage companies and infrastructure investors.

At the same time, maintaining reliable electricity remains critical. The country has experienced years of power shortages and load shedding, making energy security a central part of the transition.

The challenge will therefore be to retire aging coal plants without creating new electricity shortages.

South Africa’s Energy Transition Enters a Critical Phase

South Africa’s power sector remains one of the world’s more carbon-intensive electricity systems. Yet the latest data shows the foundations of a major transition are taking shape.

The next stage will be harder. The country needs to accelerate renewable deployment while retiring aging coal capacity, expanding transmission infrastructure and keeping electricity reliable and affordable.

The report highlights the potential scale of the opportunity, with power-sector emissions projected to fall by more than half from 2025 levels by 2050. Achieving deeper reductions, however, will require faster action.

BNEF forecasts that:

  • South Africa will invest around $63 billion in its power grid between 2026 and 2050. This works out to about 44 cents for every dollar invested in power generation.
  • Of the total, 58% will go toward replacing aging infrastructure, while 28% will fund grid upgrades and reinforcement. The remaining 14% will be allocated to new connections.

power sector investment

For South Africa, the energy transition is therefore becoming less about whether coal will decline and more about how quickly clean electricity, storage and grid infrastructure can take its place.

The answer will have major implications not only for the country’s climate targets, but also for its future industrial competitiveness and demand for carbon-free electricity.

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