Boom-Bust-Bounce: Understanding Nickel’s Latest Price Cycle

Nickel’s latest price cycle is more than just a story of volatility. It shows how fast sentiment can flip in a market now shaped by policy, supply control, and long-term energy transition demand. The sharp move from a deep slump in late 2025 to a strong rebound in early 2026 has forced investors to rethink how they value nickel assets.

Let’s take a ride through nickel’s roller coaster journey.

Nickel Price Crash to Recovery: What Triggered the 2025–2026 Market Swing?

The downturn began with oversupply. By late 2025, nickel prices had dropped to around $14,000–$15,000 per tonne. A surge in production from Indonesia flooded the market and pushed prices lower. According to Reuters, prices touched near $14,235 per tonne during this phase. Producers struggled, margins shrank, and sentiment turned weak.

Then came the reversal.

Indonesia’s Supply Moves Drive Nickel Price Rebound

In early 2026, Indonesia changed the game. The country tightened mining quotas, slowed permits, and signaled more control over supply. Since Indonesia accounts for more than half of global nickel output, even small policy shifts had a big impact.

Here’s a complete one-year presentation of the nickel price cycle:

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