China has strengthened its hold on the world’s lithium supply chain. The Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) updated China’s catalogue of technologies prohibited or restricted from export. They added important battery and lithium processing technologies. This includes lithium carbonate and hydroxide preparation, along with cathode material manufacturing.

The metal is essential for electric vehicles (EVs) and battery storage. With control over lithium mining, processing, and manufacturing, China now dominates nearly every part of this fast-growing sector.

The move lets Beijing control what technical know-how leaves China. It also strengthens its grip on the clean energy supply chain. This control affects global lithium prices, investment, and clean energy goals across Europe, the U.S., and Asia.

China’s Expanding Role in Lithium Production

Lithium demand has soared as countries push for cleaner transport and renewable energy. The International Energy Agency (IEA) says global lithium demand jumped almost 30% in 2024. This rise came mainly from EV production and big battery storage needs.

China produces about 18% of the world’s mined lithium, but its real strength lies in refining. Chinese companies hold about 65% of the world’s lithium chemical processing. They also account for over 75% of global battery cell production. These numbers show that even if lithium ore is mined in Chile, Argentina, or Australia, most of it ends up in Chinese refineries, which process it into battery-grade material.

China also leads in midstream and downstream battery manufacturing. In 2024, China made more than 1,200 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of lithium-ion batteries. That’s around three-quarters of the world’s total, as reported by BloombergNEF.

Major producers like CATL and BYD supplied both domestic and foreign automakers, including Tesla, BMW, and Toyota.

The country’s major players, such as Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium, have spent years investing in foreign mines. They invest in lithium projects in South America, Africa, and Australia. This helps them secure long-term access to raw materials. This strategy ensures China’s industry gets the feedstock it needs, supports local gigafactories, and boosts global exports.

• SEE MORE: China’s Massive Lithium Discovery Elevates It to Second in Global Reserves

How Beijing’s Moves Sway Global Lithium Markets

Lithium prices have been on a roller coaster. After record highs in 2022, prices dropped sharply in 2023 and early 2024 due to oversupply. But by mid-2025, prices in China began to rebound. Lithium carbonate traded between CNY 59,000 and 69,000 per metric ton (roughly US$8,500–9,000).

Industry analysts say Chinese producers used this price flexibility to outcompete foreign suppliers. When prices drop, many non-Chinese mining firms, especially in Australia and Africa, struggle to stay profitable.

Some market experts think China oversupplied the market on purpose. They believe this was to keep global influence and slow down rival producers.

Despite recent rebounds, volatility remains high. The IEA warns that lithium demand may double by 2030. It could reach over 1.3 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) each year. Without new mines and processing capacity, global shortages might return. This could lead to price spikes that impact battery and EV production worldwide.

• SEE LITHIUM PRICES here…

Technology and Export Controls

China’s advantage goes beyond production scale. It now leads in processing technology, equipment, and battery chemistry. Beijing is now limiting exports of lithium-processing machines and technology. This move aims to protect local industries and manage intellectual property.

In 2025, several Chinese equipment suppliers limited shipments abroad. This makes it harder for competitors in the U.S. and Europe to build their own refining systems. These export limits are part of a broader strategy to keep the high-value stages of the supply chain inside China.

Meanwhile, the U.S. IRA provides up to $369 billion for climate and energy. It includes strong incentives for local battery and mineral production. Europe’s Critical Raw Materials Act aims for 40% of critical minerals used in the EU to come from local or allied sources by 2030. But industry analysts say it could take up to a decade for these efforts to significantly reduce dependence on China.

The Global Response: Diversifying Supply Chains

Governments and companies are now racing to reduce dependence on China. The United States, Canada, and Australia are expanding domestic mining and refining. Chile and Argentina, along with other South American nations, are building local industries. They aim to process lithium instead of just exporting raw materials.

• RELATED: U.S. Lithium Push: How Washington’s Bet on Lithium Americas Could Reshape the Global Market

The IEA warns that global lithium supply must increase sevenfold by 2035 to meet climate goals. That means bringing new mines and refineries online faster while maintaining environmental standards.

In 2024, the World Bank estimated that over €680 billion (US$730 billion) was invested in renewable power and storage. However, only a small part funded the raw material supply. If supply growth lags, battery shortages could slow EV production by the late 2020s.

However, challenges persist. Lithium extraction can strain water resources and ecosystems. Building new facilities also requires stable regulation and financing, which can take years to secure.

Surge Battery Metals: Strengthening North American Supply

In North America, one of the emerging players helping to diversify lithium supply is Surge Battery Metals (CSE: NILI). The company is developing the Nevada North Lithium Project. This project is in one of the U.S.’s most promising lithium-rich areas.

Surge aims to produce battery-grade lithium for the growing North American EV market. Its exploration results have shown strong potential for large-scale, high-grade lithium clay deposits. Projects like Surge’s align with U.S. efforts to build a secure domestic supply chain and reduce reliance on imports from China.

Surge helps ensure supply security and meet environmental goals by creating cleaner extraction and processing methods. Its work supports the U.S. Department of Energy’s plan to create a domestic battery materials supply chain. It seeks to meet 90% of the country’s lithium demand by 2035.

What’s Ahead: Competition, Cooperation, and Climate Goals

The global lithium race is about more than profits. It shapes the pace of the clean energy transition. China’s dominance gives it both economic power and geopolitical influence. Western economies are investing a lot to find new supplies and to lower strategic risks.

The market outlook suggests demand will remain strong throughout the decade. Analysts expect lithium prices to stabilize as new supply enters the market, but competition will remain intense.

For the world to meet its climate goals, cooperation will be as important as competition. Shared technology, recycling, and sustainability standards could help reduce emissions and stabilize supply chains.

Surge Battery Metals and other new miners are working to localize production. They aim to boost transparency and ensure lithium supply helps the clean energy transition, not hinders it.

China now controls the heart of the global lithium industry, from mining and refining to battery exports. This dominance brings both opportunity and risk. The rest of the world is responding, but catching up will take time, investment, and innovation.

• READ MORE: Lithium Americas (LAC) Stock Jumps 95% as Trump Seeks Government Equity in Nation’s Largest Lithium Mine

The post China’s Grip on Lithium Tightens as Global Supply Struggles to Keep Up appeared first on Carbon Credits.

A new peer-reviewed study suggests that most carbon offset programs have failed to deliver real reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. The study in the Annual Review of Environment and Resources (2025) finds that offsets, credits companies buy to offset their emissions, haven’t significantly slowed global warming.

The authors, led by climate scientist Joseph Romm, reviewed over ten years of data. They found that most offsets are tied to projects that would have occurred regardless. This means that many credits do not represent genuine emission reductions.

Carbon offsets are a cornerstone of corporate climate strategies. Despite billions in voluntary carbon markets (VCM), global carbon dioxide levels hit a record 424 parts per million in 2024, says the World Meteorological Organization. The study claims that offset systems, as they are now, provide more accounting ease than real benefits to the atmosphere.

Why Most Carbon Credits Miss the Mark

The paper identifies three main reasons why offsets have underperformed.

First, “additionality” — the idea that a project must only exist because of offset funding — is often not met. Many renewable energy and forest conservation projects would likely move forward without carbon credit revenue.

Another research from 2024 shows that about 87% of VCM offsets likely do not provide real and additional emission reductions. This widespread failure mainly comes from project designs that give too much credit to common renewable energy and forest conservation efforts. Many of these would have happened even without the projects.

Second, measurement and permanence are major issues. Forest-based credits account for about 40% of the voluntary carbon market. They can lose stored carbon due to wildfires, drought, or illegal logging. Studies cited in the review show that over 90% of forestry offsets examined failed to guarantee long-term carbon storage.

Third, double-counting remains common. Some emissions reductions are claimed by both the project developer and the host country, undermining integrity.

Some forest offset projects fail to consider leakage. This means emissions may shift to other places, leading to over-crediting. Similar estimates show that more than half of the offsets in different carbon markets may face double-counting or overstatement.

The result, according to Romm’s team, is that less than 10% of offsets on the market deliver genuine, measurable, and lasting emission cuts.

The Scale of the Problem: Billions in Doubt

The voluntary carbon market was once expected to reach $50 billion by 2030, driven by corporate net-zero pledges. But growth has slowed sharply since 2022, as buyers question credit quality and reputational risk increases.

Market value fell by more than 60% between 2022 and 2024, according to BloombergNEF. Major companies like Nestlé, Gucci, and EasyJet have reduced offset purchases. Instead, they are focusing on funding direct emission cuts in their operations.

Over 1.5 billion carbon credits are still in circulation. This accounts for over a billion tonnes of claimed emission reductions, despite the slowdown. The study warns that if these credits lack real-world carbon removal, they might delay climate action. This is because they create a false sense of progress.

• RELEVANT: Why Are Major Companies Abandoning ‘Cheap’ Carbon Offsets? Bloomberg Explains.

Rebuild or Retreat? How the Carbon Market Fights for Credibility

The study’s findings have triggered strong reactions across the carbon market. Many organizations see the problems. They argue for reform instead of giving up.

The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM) is an independent global group. In 2024, it launched its Core Carbon Principles (CCPs). These rules set minimum standards for quality, transparency, and permanence. ICVCM began approving credits that meet its criteria in 2025, with the goal of restoring buyer confidence.

Similarly, major registries like Verra and Gold Standard have updated their methodologies. Verra now requires projects to provide verified, real-time monitoring data. They must also account for climate risks like fire and deforestation.

Gold Standard has shifted its focus from offsets to “climate contributions.” This change pushes companies to invest more in reducing emissions, not just compensating for them.

Industry experts noted that the industry must “shift from quantity to quality.” They emphasized that strong verification systems and independent audits can help rebuild trust.

Even governments are stepping in. At COP30 in Belém, Brazil (2025), negotiators plan to finalize the global rules for carbon trading under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. These rules will define how international credits can be traded without double-counting.

Examples of New Approaches

Some initiatives are emerging to fix long-standing issues.

• Technology-based removals: Startups like Climeworks and Charm Industrial are producing credits based on direct air capture and bio-oil sequestration. These methods store carbon permanently, though they remain costly — up to $600 per tonne.
• Jurisdictional forest programs: Countries like Indonesia and Gabon are piloting large-scale carbon programs that use satellite monitoring to ensure transparency.
• Corporate reform: Companies like Microsoft and Delta Air Lines will only buy credits from projects that show real, lasting carbon removal. They won’t focus on avoided emissions anymore.

These changes show a shift from offsetting emissions to removing carbon. This aligns better with science-based targets. The timeline below shows major developments in the carbon offset market. 

• SEE MORE: Carbon Markets in 2025: A New Era of Accountability, Quality, and Transparency

What the Data Really Says About Climate Accounting

The Annual Review study makes a clear recommendation: carbon offsets should no longer be used as a substitute for direct emission cuts. Instead, they can play a role in funding innovation or supporting communities during the transition.

Romm and his team say that governments need to stop using low-quality offsets. They also want strict global oversight. They warn that without reform, carbon markets may face the same credibility issues. This could lead to public backlash like the one seen in 2023 and 2024.

Still, the authors acknowledge that offset mechanisms can evolve. “Offsets could help if they fund projects that remove carbon permanently and are verified transparently,” the paper notes.

Beyond Offsets: Toward a Stronger and More Honest Market

Despite criticism, few expect the voluntary carbon market to disappear. Instead, it is likely to become smaller but more credible. BloombergNEF analysts estimate that a strong market could hit $30 billion each year by 2035. Also, the MSCI forecasts it could reach up to $35 billion in 2030. This growth will come from verified carbon removals and compliance-linked credits.

The broader transition is also creating new demand for accountability. Investors, regulators, and consumers want companies to show how they verify offsets. They also want to see how these offsets fit into long-term plans for reducing carbon emissions.

The Integrity Council’s certification process and the UN’s Article 6 rules are expected to shape the next decade of carbon trading. They could remove low-quality projects and direct funding to real climate solutions.

The study delivers a tough message: the world cannot buy its way out of the climate crisis. Offsets, as they exist today, have not slowed global warming. The new wave of reforms shows that transparency and integrity might make carbon markets part of the solution.

For now, the future of offsets depends on whether companies, investors, and regulators can rebuild trust, shifting from promises on paper to real-world carbon reduction and removal.

• READ MORE: High-Quality Carbon Credit Prices Hit Record Levels, Driven by Integrity and Market Shifts

The post Study Finds Carbon Offsets Failing to Deliver Real Climate Impact appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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* For Accredited Investors Only. Offered pursuant to Rule 506(c). Reasonable steps to verify accreditation will be taken before any sale.
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Fentanyl is devastating American communities at a record pace, with more than 220 deaths every day. Synthetic opioids accounted for over 70,000 U.S. fatalities in 2023, and their impact now extends beyond public health into national security. 

At the same time, artificial intelligence (AI) is advancing in ways that could allow adversaries to design new synthetic drugs or bioweapons faster than regulators and security agencies can respond. Coupled with the political weight fentanyl carries in Washington, the U.S. faces a multidimensional challenge. 

ARMR Sciences underscores why prevention, innovation, and leadership can align to shield America from this emerging and evolving threat.

Escalating National Security Concerns

Fentanyl’s extraordinary potency – up to 50 times stronger than heroin – makes even trace exposure lethal. Its supply chains cross borders, complicating law enforcement and fueling instability at home. 

ARMR Sciences emphasizes that enforcement alone cannot resolve the crisis. Without proactive prevention strategies, the nation risks a deepening cycle of addiction, death, and weakened resilience.

Technology at the Crossroads

AI has the potential to transform healthcare and logistics, but also carries risks of misuse. Researchers showed that advanced AI models could generate tens of thousands of psychoactive compound blueprints in just hours – a dangerous acceleration of synthetic chemistry. 

National security leaders, including AI pioneers, warn that adversaries could exploit these tools. ARMR Sciences argues for robust biodefense strategies that include strict controls on sensitive algorithms, enhanced detection systems, and proactive investment in prevention technologies.

Political Pressure and Policy Response

The fentanyl crisis has become a defining issue in U.S. politics, shaping debates on border security, healthcare, and law enforcement funding. Deaths have risen by more than 20% annually since 2019, amplifying public and political demands for action. 

ARMR Sciences emphasizes that bipartisan cooperation and evidence-based policymaking are essential to prevent partisan gridlock. Recognizing fentanyl as both a health and security issue can unite leaders behind more effective prevention measures.

ARMR Sciences – A Prevention-Focused Framework

Across each dimension – fentanyl’s deadly toll, AI’s potential misuse, and the political battle for solutions – ARMR Sciences underscores a common theme: prevention is the most effective defense. This means deploying early warning systems, advancing detection capabilities, integrating data-driven tools, and strengthening community resilience before crises escalate. 

It also means ensuring that AI innovation develops with responsible guardrails, while national security agencies adapt to evolving synthetic threats. Prevention is not passive; it requires deliberate action, investment, and leadership.

So, Why Should Investors Pay Attention to ARMR’s Solution?

For investors, ARMR represents an opportunity to back a company working to address the convergence of fentanyl’s deadly impact, AI’s potential misuse, and the urgent need for prevention. 

Its platform is built on years of defense-backed research and is advancing innovative biotechnology programs:

• Seven years of DoD-supported science established the foundation of ARMR’s platform
• Lead candidate ARMR-100 blocked 92% of fentanyl from entering the brain in preclinical (animal) studies
• A $30M private raise is currently underway
• Plans for a targeted exchange listing in 2026 are in place, subject to market conditions

By investing in this round, investors have a chance to support ARMR as it works to build a potentially category-defining role in AI-powered biodefense.

* This is a paid advertisement for ARMR’s private offering. Please read the details of the offering at InvestARMR.com for additional information on the company and the risk factors related to the offering.

* For Accredited Investors Only. This offering is made pursuant to Rule 506(c) of Regulation D. All purchasers must be accredited investors, and the issuer will take reasonable steps to verify accredited status before any sale. Investing involves high risk, including the potential loss of your entire investment.

* For investors from Canada: This advertisement forms part of the issuer’s marketing materials and is incorporated by reference into the issuer’s Offering Memorandum/Private Placement Memorandum under NI 45-106. Investors must receive and review the OM/PPM and execute the prescribed Form 45-106F4 Risk Acknowledgement before subscribing.

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Lucid Motors reached a new milestone in the third quarter of 2025, sending its stock higher. The company delivered 4,078 vehicles, marking its best quarterly performance so far. This was a 46% increase from the same period last year.

Still, the result fell short of expectations. Analysts had forecast around 4,300 deliveries, so the actual number missed the mark by a small but important margin. Lucid also produced 3,891 vehicles during the quarter, below some estimates that predicted over 5,000.

By September 2025, Lucid had produced nearly 10,000 vehicles yea- to-date and delivered over 10,400 units to customers. Earlier this year, the company adjusted its full-year guidance to between 18,000 and 20,000 units, lower than earlier projections.

To meet even the lower end of that range, Lucid would need to produce more than 8,000 vehicles in Q4 — roughly double its previous quarterly output. It’s a tough target that will test Lucid’s ability to scale up production while managing costs and maintaining quality.

What’s Behind Lucid’s Q3 Numbers?

Several factors led to the carmaker’s Q3 achievements:

Tax Credit Surge

One big driver of Lucid’s record quarter was the rush to qualify for the U.S. $7,500 federal EV tax credit, which expired at the end of September. Many customers placed orders to beat the deadline, boosting short-term demand.

Some Lucid models didn’t meet the credit rules for direct purchases. However, buyers accessed the credit through leasing programs. This helped lift deliveries in the months leading up to the credit’s expiry.

New Model Momentum

Lucid’s Gravity SUV, expected to launch soon, helped renew consumer and investor interest. SUVs make up a much larger share of the EV market than luxury sedans, and Lucid’s entry into this segment could expand its customer base.

For now, the Lucid Air sedan remains the company’s main product. It is known for high efficiency, premium design, and long range. But strong SUV demand suggests Lucid’s future growth will depend heavily on Gravity’s success.

Supply and Production Challenges

Lucid still faces production challenges. Key components like permanent magnets and electronic chips remain hard to source. These supply constraints limit how quickly Lucid can ramp up output, even when demand is healthy.

The company added a second production shift in its Arizona plant this year to increase capacity. However, scaling a young EV factory takes time. Quality checks, supplier reliability, and workforce training all affect production rates.

Some of the production shortfall in Q3 came from Lucid’s focus on delivering existing inventory. The company focused on fulfilling customer orders instead of increasing stock. This decision slightly lowered new production figures.

Market Expectations

The shortfall also reflects how high investor expectations have become. Lucid is competing in a crowded and fast-moving EV market. When analysts expect more aggressive growth, even a record performance can look underwhelming. Yet, Lucid’s stock climbs up after reporting record growth. 

Tariffs, inflation, and higher material costs also weigh on the company’s margins. As global trade changes, the costs of batteries and raw materials like lithium, nickel, and aluminum keep shifting.

Racing with Giants: How Lucid Stacks Up in the EV Arena

Lucid’s Q3 gains came during a strong period for the EV industry overall. Several automakers reported delivery growth in 2025 as consumer confidence in EVs improved and infrastructure expanded.

For comparison, Tesla delivered nearly half a million vehicles in the same quarter. General Motors also set records, delivering over 66,000 EVs across its brands. Lucid’s numbers are far smaller but still show steady progress for a newer company.

What sets Lucid apart is its focus on efficiency and technology. The Lucid Air remains one of the most energy-efficient electric vehicles ever built, capable of traveling over 800 kilometers on a single charge in some models.

• RELATED: Lucid Group (LCID Stock) Sets New EV Standard: Highest Efficiency and 30% Lower Emissions

That efficiency appeals to luxury buyers and plays into Lucid’s sustainability goals: lower energy use per vehicle helps reduce its carbon footprint and supports net-zero alignment.

Driving Green: How Lucid Builds Efficiency into Every Mile

Lucid Motors positions itself as a sustainability-driven automaker. The company aims to build some of the most efficient EVs in the world while cutting emissions at every stage.

Lower Energy Use and Emissions

Lucid designs its motors, batteries, and software in-house. This vertical integration allows it to reduce energy losses and improve performance. The Lucid Air has up to 30% lower lifecycle emissions than some other luxury EVs. This is due to its lightweight materials and smart battery management.

Lucid’s production plant in Casa Grande, Arizona, uses some renewable energy. The company is also looking for more clean energy sources. As production scales, maintaining low emissions per vehicle will be critical.

Transparency and Reporting

Lucid publishes regular sustainability reports outlining its environmental performance and goals. It is a member of the United Nations Global Compact, which promotes corporate responsibility in areas like labor, human rights, and climate action.

Lucid also receives independent ESG risk ratings from firms that measure how well companies manage sustainability challenges. These ratings help investors understand the environmental and social impact of Lucid’s business model.

Circular Design and Materials

The company is working on a circular design approach — recycling and reusing materials wherever possible. For example, battery packs are made for easy disassembly. They can be reused in energy-storage systems after their automotive life ends.

Lucid’s engineers are also researching sustainable materials for interiors, such as plant-based leathers and low-impact textiles. These steps align with the growing demand for environmentally responsible luxury products.

The Roadblocks to Lucid’s Expansion

Lucid’s record quarter is encouraging, but major hurdles remain, including: 

1. Production Ramp-Up: To meet its 2025 goal of 18,000 to 20,000 vehicles, Lucid must roughly double quarterly production in Q4. That requires stable supply chains, smooth plant operations, and strong workforce coordination.
2. Post-Incentive Demand: Now that the U.S. EV tax credit has expired, sales may dip temporarily. Lucid will need new marketing and financing options to keep the momentum going.
3. Cost and Competition: Rising input costs and new EV competition could pressure prices. Established automakers like BMW, Mercedes, and Tesla are expanding their electric lineups. Price wars in the EV market are already common.
4. Scaling Sustainability: As production grows, Lucid must ensure suppliers meet strict sustainability standards. Mining for battery materials, energy use in manufacturing, and logistics all add to its carbon footprint.

Maintaining ESG credibility will be key as the company expands globally. Investors increasingly favor automakers that combine growth with clear climate strategies.

Can Lucid Stay Luxurious, Profitable, and Green?

Lucid’s third quarter proves that its products are gaining traction. Deliveries are increasing, brand awareness is growing, and the company is gradually expanding its production.

But the missed forecasts show that growth alone isn’t enough. To win investor confidence and compete with larger players, Lucid must show consistent, predictable performance.

At the same time, its sustainability promise remains central to its brand identity. Lucid wants to create vehicles that are both luxurious and eco-friendly. The luxury carmaker focuses on using less energy, reducing emissions, and setting new efficiency standards.

If Lucid keeps a balance between high-end innovation and real-world sustainability, it can secure a lasting spot in the fast-changing EV market. But to succeed, it must show it can turn potential into steady, scalable success while also keeping its environmental promises.

• READ MORE: Is QS Stock the Future of EV Batteries? Inside QuantumScape’s Game-Changing Deal with Corning

The post Lucid Motors (LCID) Stock Rises on Record Quarter: Growth, Green Goas, and the Road Ahead appeared first on Carbon Credits.