The lithium sector took center stage this week when Lithium Americas (NYSE: LAC) stock soared nearly 95% on reports that the Trump administration is considering taking an equity stake in the company’s Thacker Pass mine in Nevada. If it happens, this move would be one of the biggest government actions in U.S. mining in years. It shows how important lithium is to national policy now.

Behind the headlines lies a deeper story: America’s ambition to lead the clean energy transition risks colliding with a stark supply shortage. We highlight below, with the two charts, both the opportunity and the vulnerability facing the United States in this lithium quest.

A Lithium Crisis in the Making

The United States faces a lithium crisis that makes its clean energy ambitions look more like an aspiration than an execution. Current domestic production is only 2,700 metric tons a year. That’s too small compared to the 500,000 tons needed by 2030 to hit electric vehicle (EV) goals.

To put this in perspective:

• The lithium in an iPhone weighs about the same as a penny.
• A Tesla Model 3 battery pack requires around 12 kilograms.
• A Ford F-150 Lightning demands closer to 17 kilograms.

At present mining levels, the U.S. produces enough lithium for only about 158,000 Tesla Model 3s annually. That’s in a market where Americans bought 1.4 million EVs in 2024 alone, with demand expected to climb sharply in the coming years.

This gap reveals a harsh reality: America’s lithium supply chain is ill-prepared for its electrification goals.

From Marginal Producer to Top Four — If Thacker Pass Delivers

The government’s solution to this issue is projects like Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass. It’s one of the largest lithium deposits in North America. If fully developed, it could boost U.S. production to around 40,000 tons each year. This would place the country among the top four producers, following Australia, Chile, and China.

• SEE MORE: Lithium Americas (LAC) Stock Jumps 95% as Trump Seeks Government Equity in Nation’s Largest Lithium Mine

That would mark a tenfold increase in output, but it is still far from enough. Even under the most optimistic forecasts, Thacker Pass would meet just 8% of projected U.S. demand by 2030, and a mere 3% of the 1.2 million tons expected by 2035.

Meanwhile, China has spent more than a decade locking up supply chains, securing lithium assets in Africa, South America, and Australia. It is also building refining infrastructure that now processes nearly 80% of the world’s lithium.

The comparison is striking: Zimbabwe produces eight times more lithium than the U.S. Even smaller producers, like Argentina, surpass American output. In this context, Washington’s sudden push for equity stakes is less about profits and more about survival in a high-stakes race for supply.

Reserves Rich, Supply Poor: The Untapped U.S. Advantage

The second chart points to America’s hidden strength: the U.S. ranks first globally in lithium reserves, with more than 100 million tonnes identified. Despite this geological advantage, those resources remain largely untapped.

Encouragingly, the U.S. now ranks third in global exploration budgets, reflecting a deliberate policy pivot. Billions of dollars are going to exploration and project development, from Nevada to North Carolina. If even a fraction of these reserves is unlocked, the U.S. could rival today’s top producers and reduce dependence on foreign supply chains.

However, converting reserves into production requires more than exploration. Projects can hit delays with permits, face environmental lawsuits, struggle with financing, and deal with local opposition. All these issues can stretch timelines into decades. This is why federal involvement is becoming more important. This includes equity stakes, subsidies, and fast-tracking permits.

Why the LAC Surge Matters

The near-doubling of Lithium Americas’ stock was not just a speculative rally. It was a market signal that U.S. lithium policy is entering a new phase.

• Government backing reduces financing risk, making it easier to attract institutional investors.
• Aligning policies with EV makers like General Motors, which has a big stake in Thacker Pass, ensures supply security and offtake agreements.
• National security framing places lithium on the same level as oil and gas. This makes lithium a strategic commodity and allows for more state intervention.

For automakers and battery manufacturers, this could mark the start of a more stable domestic supply base. For investors, it highlights how policy can rapidly change the outlook for mining equities.

Demand, Prices, and the Rollercoaster Market 

Lithium demand will rise quickly. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI) predicts that consumption of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) will surpass 2.4 million tonnes by 2030. That’s almost four times what we use now. By 2035, demand could climb past 5 million tonnes, fueled by electric vehicles and large-scale battery storage.

The industry needs hundreds of new projects to meet this surge. However, BMI points out that permitting delays, financing issues, and tech challenges are slowing supply growth.

Battery demand adds another layer of urgency. Analysts predict global battery capacity will reach nearly 4 terawatt-hours by 2030. This highlights lithium’s vital role in the clean energy shift.

The U.S. is still a minor player. Most refining and conversion happens in China, which holds about 80% of processing capacity. This imbalance shows why Washington supports projects like Lithium Americas. They want to secure a local supply.

Litium prices, meanwhile, have been highly volatile. After lithium carbonate reached over $80,000 per tonne in late 2022, prices dropped sharply. In 2023–2024, they fell by more than 80%, going below $10,000 earlier this year. BMI attributes the crash to oversupply from South America and weaker near-term EV sales in China, which created a temporary glut.

However, the consultancy stresses that volatility is cyclical, not structural. Demand is strong, and prices should bounce back. In fact, last August, prices climbed when China’s major battery player closed its major mine. 

New supply can’t keep up with long-term consumption. BMI warns that without steady investment and diversification of supply, future shortages could push prices sharply higher again by the late 2020s.

For the U.S., this shows why public investment matters. It helps create a strong domestic lithium industry. This will support electrification goals and better handle global changes.

• RELATED: Lithium Prices Jump as CATL Shuts Major Jianxiawo Mine in China

Government in the Game: Stabilizing Supply Chains

U.S. government equity in Lithium Americas offers help in these areas:

• Provide a floor for project financing — Government backing reduces the risk premium for lenders or institutional partners.
• Stabilize supply — A guaranteed domestic source reduces reliance on external shocks.
• Mitigate short-term volatility — If Thacker Pass operates under a model combining private and public capital, it could offer a more stable supply corridor insulated from market swings.
• Signal future project structures — The U.S. may increasingly demand “state-option carve-outs” or partial equity as a condition for major critical mineral projects.

In a market where excess supply can drive prices into unprofitable territory, having a strategic anchor on flagship projects becomes a competitive edge.

Lithium as a Strategic Commodity

Lithium is no longer just a commodity for battery makers — it is now a strategic asset shaping national policy. The U.S. has the reserves, capital, and political will to be a major producer. But it will take years of teamwork to turn potential into production.

The Trump administration’s willingness to consider a government equity stake in Lithium Americas suggests a broader trend: future large-scale projects may require some form of state participation to succeed.

For the U.S., the stakes could not be higher. Without a reliable domestic lithium supply, the country risks falling behind in the global EV race, remaining dependent on supply chains controlled by rivals. With it, America could not only meet its clean energy goals but also secure a critical pillar of its industrial future.

• READ MORE on Lithium:
• Lithium Market in 2025 and Beyond: Supply Deficit Looms with $116B Requirement
• Lithium’s Comeback in 2025: Will Surging EV Demand Fuel the Next Price Boom?
• Top 5 Lithium Producers Powering the Battery Market in 2025

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Artificial intelligence (AI) is helping transform medicine, finance, and logistics. But experts warn it could also be turned against us. With advanced modeling, AI can now generate chemical blueprints at a substantially faster rate than previously available processes. As a result, National security leaders and AI thought leaders (including OpenAI’s Sam Altman), have voiced concerns that adversaries could weaponize AI to design new bioweapons.

The New Threat Landscape

Fentanyl already stands as the deadliest synthetic opioid in U.S. history, responsible for more than 220 deaths every day. But fentanyl itself is only the beginning. 

Analogs like carfentanil (100x stronger), xylazine (non-opioid threat), and nitazenes (40x stronger) are beginning to spread, many of which are not reversible with Narcan. 

The drug supply is becoming a testing ground for increasingly lethal compounds, some of which could be accelerated by AI-driven chemistry.

This dual challenge – lethal analogs on the street and the potential for AI-designed agents – has led federal agencies, including the Department of Defense and Homeland Security, to classify fentanyl and its cousins as chemical weapons of mass destruction. 

The crisis is no longer just a health issue; it is a national security emergency.

ARMR’s Defense Labs Approach

ARMR Sciences is working to position itself to confront this next phase. Its Defense Labs initiative combines AI-powered drug discovery with seven years of Department of Defense–funded science with the goal of building a scalable biodefense platform.

The company’s lead candidate, ARMR-100, designed to train the immune system to block fentanyl before it reaches the brain. In preclinical (animal) studies, ARMR-100 blocked 92% of fentanyl’s entry into the brain and eliminated its addictive behavioral effects (at this stage ARMR-100 is not FDA-approved, human safety and efficacy have not been established, and preclinical results may not predict clinical outcomes).

Unlike reactive tools such as naloxone, ARMR-100 is designed to provide months of protection – a biochemical shield against fentanyl and, eventually, other engineered analogs.

Beyond fentanyl, ARMR plans to develop additional immunotherapies for xylazine, nitazenes, and other emerging threats, creating a portfolio that evolves alongside the risks. 

By leveraging AI in its own labs, ARMR seeks to stay ahead of adversaries who might misuse the same technology. And in the battle between innovation and misuse, its proactive biodefense may prove to be America’s strongest shield.

The Scale and the Urgency 

With more than 130 million people in the U.S. considered high-risk – from opioid use disorder patients to first responders and military personnel – the potential market is vast. 

For policymakers, the message is clear: synthetic opioids are no longer only a health crisis, but a recognized national security threat. Classified alongside terrorism and cyberwarfare, fentanyl and its analogs demand rapid action. 

This urgency is creating bipartisan momentum for federal funding, regulatory fast-tracking, and stockpiling of new countermeasures. 

Why Investors Should Pay Attention

For investors, we believe that ARMR represents an opportunity to back a company that combines social impact with growth potential. Its model combines biotechnology, AI, and biodefense – a convergence few companies are addressing:

• Seven years of DoD-backed research formed the platform’s foundation
• Lead candidate ARMR-100 blocked 92% of fentanyl from entering the brain in preclinical studies
• A $30M private raise is now open
• A targeted exchange listing in the future

By investing in this round, investors have a chance to support ARMR as it works to build a category-defining role in AI-powered biodefense.

Invest now to help support ARMR’s efforts to build the nation’s first line of defense against fentanyl and other synthetic threats.

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Macquarie Asset Management has closed a $3 billion fund to speed up the global energy transition. The fund, called Macquarie Green Energy Transition Solutions (MGETS), exceeded its original target after strong demand from investors. The money will support projects that cut greenhouse gas emissions and build a cleaner energy system.

More than 65% of the fund is already committed. Early investments target renewable energy storage, sustainable fuels, carbon capture, and electric transport systems. By backing both proven and emerging solutions, Macquarie shows that climate-focused investing is now central to its strategy.

Where the Billions Are Going

MGETS is designed to finance infrastructure and technology that reduces carbon. This includes battery energy storage, distributed renewable power, clean transportation, and sustainable fuels. It also covers carbon capture, recycling, and circular economy projects.

So far, the fund has backed 12 projects. These include Eku Energy, a UK-based battery storage platform; SkyNRG, a Dutch producer of sustainable aviation fuel; and Verkor, a French maker of EV batteries. These examples show the fund’s focus on areas where emissions are hardest to cut.

The fund also targets low-carbon technologies that are still developing, such as green hydrogen, carbon capture, and advanced batteries. These solutions are not yet scaled up, but early capital is needed to drive progress and lower costs.

Investing in these technologies carries risks. Costs are high, and technical barriers remain. But the long-term growth potential is strong. As countries and companies set net-zero targets, demand for these technologies will increase. Macquarie is positioning itself as a leader by supporting both current infrastructure and future innovations.

Key Features of the Fund

Here are some of the fund’s highlights:

• Fund size: $3 billion
  
• Focus: Energy transition projects
  
• Sectors: Renewable power, grid upgrades, clean fuels, storage, and clean transport
  
• Scope: Developed and emerging markets worldwide
  
• Structure: Mix of equity and debt financing
  
• Goal: Cut emissions and support net-zero pathways
  
• Investors: Global institutions such as pension funds and sovereign wealth funds
  

This flexible structure allows the fund to support both large-scale projects and smaller ventures that need growth funding.

The Investor Surge: Why Demand Exceeded Expectations

The strong demand for MGETS highlights how fast climate finance is growing. Pension funds, insurers, and sovereign wealth funds see the energy transition as both a duty and an opportunity. They can back low-carbon infrastructure while earning stable returns.

The fund also shows how investment is expanding beyond solar and wind. Macquarie is putting money into enablers of the transition, such as grid flexibility, carbon storage, and clean fuels.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts global energy investment will hit a record $3.3 trillion in 2025, led by clean energy technologies. Of this, $2.2 trillion will go to renewables, nuclear, and energy storage — about double the amount slated for fossil fuels. Solar power could attract $450 billion, while battery storage investment rises to around $66 billion.

According to the IEA, global clean energy investment could reach $4.5 trillion annually by 2030 if countries meet their climate goals. Funds like MGETS are meant to help close this gap.

• SEE MORE: Clean Energy Beats Fossil Fuel in Historic $3.3T Global Energy Investment in 2025, IEA Report

Scaling Climate Impact: From Europe to the World

The launch of MGETS shows the scale of funding needed to meet climate targets. Private capital, alongside public funding, will be critical.

By committing $3 billion, Macquarie sets an example for other asset managers. The fund is also expected to attract co-investments and partnerships, expanding its impact far beyond its initial size.

Institutional Capital as a Climate Catalyst

Large investors are under pressure to align their portfolios with climate goals. They are looking for opportunities that combine stable returns with measurable impact. MGETS offers one way to do this.

Macquarie is not alone. BlackRock and Brookfield have also raised multi-billion-dollar energy transition funds. Together, these efforts show how finance is becoming a key driver of climate action. 

Separately, a venture capital alliance overseeing $60 billion in assets has launched a $300 million fund to support climate-tech startups. Called the “All Aboard Coalition,” the fund aims to help firms scale from pilot to commercial stage.

It aims to close what’s known as the “valley of death” in clean technology. Backers include Breakthrough Energy, Khosla Ventures, and DCVC. This move comes amid a multi-year drop in climate-tech investments and seeks to restore funding momentum in the sector.

Opportunities vs. Risks: Navigating the Transition

The opportunities are clear. Demand for clean power, EVs, and smart grids will rise over the next decade. Technologies that reduce emissions will become more profitable as rules tighten and companies aim for net zero.

But there are risks. Some technologies are costly or unproven. Policy changes, such as shifts in subsidies or carbon pricing, can affect returns. Large projects also face hurdles with permits, supply chains, or local opposition. Climate risks such as extreme heat, flooding, or storms can also impact assets directly. Macquarie will need to manage these challenges carefully.

Early Momentum and Global Reach

Despite these risks, the fund has momentum. With over 65% already invested, Macquarie is moving fast. Current projects are based in the UK, France, and the Netherlands, but the fund plans to operate globally.

The name “Green Energy Transition Solutions” reflects its broad focus. It is not only about generating clean power but also about enabling systems that cut emissions across industries.

Looking Ahead: Funding the $4.5 Trillion Net-Zero Gap

The energy transition requires trillions of dollars in funding by 2050. This growth will continue, with more money flowing to energy storage, carbon capture, and clean transport.

Corporate net-zero pledges also create demand. Over 6,000 companies worldwide have set science-based climate targets. In 2023, companies with SBTi-approved climate targets made up 39% of global market value, rising to 41% in 2024. These businesses also grew faster than the wider economy, with market value increasing 16%, compared to 11% growth in global GDP.

This adds pressure on supply chains and energy providers to cut emissions. Financial players like Macquarie are stepping in to provide both funding and expertise.

 

Macquarie’s $3 billion fund is part of a much larger movement. To keep global warming to 1.5°C, clean energy investment must rise sharply over the next decade. Funds like MGETS can help connect technology developers, infrastructure operators, and investors.

The success of the fund will depend on two things: financial returns and real carbon reductions. If Macquarie delivers on both, it could attract more capital and inspire others to follow. That would speed up the world’s shift to a low-carbon economy.

• READ MORE: Corporate Climate Pledges Surge 227% as SBTi Net Zero Standards Tighten

The post Macquarie Raises $3B Energy Transition Fund to Boost the Net-Zero Future appeared first on Carbon Credits.

The move shows Washington’s increasing readiness to take charge of key mineral projects. This aims to protect national security and lessen dependence on China.

Trump Targets Lithium Americas Equity

This proposed deal reflects a larger trend. Trump officials have pursued stakes in Intel, MP Materials, and other key tech firms. Washington’s push for direct equity in Lithium Americas shows that taxpayer-backed financing needs real returns. This is vital for sectors important to the clean energy transition.

The same Reuters report revealed what a White House official told the news agency. He said, “President Trump supports this project. He wants it to succeed and also be fair to taxpayers. But there’s no such thing as free money.”

Loan Backdrop: A $2.26 Billion Bet

In October 2024, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Loan Programs Office (LPO) approved a $2.26 billion loan for Lithium Nevada Corp., part of Lithium Americas. This loan includes $1.97 billion in principal and $289.7 million in capitalized interest. It’s one of the largest federal investments in U.S. lithium production.

The loan lasts for 24 years and has an interest rate tied to the U.S. Treasury rate. It will fund facilities to produce lithium carbonate for lithium-ion batteries.

Thacker Pass: America’s Lithium Powerhouse

Thacker Pass is in Humboldt County, Nevada, about 25 miles south of the Oregon border. It aims to be the largest lithium source in the Western Hemisphere. Construction has been underway for nearly a year, with over 600 contractors currently active on-site.

The project is massive in scale:

• Phase 1 output: 40,000 tonnes of battery-grade lithium carbonate annually.
• Enough material to power up to 800,000 electric vehicles (EVs) each year.
• Backed by the world’s largest measured lithium resource, enabling the development of a full lithium district in northern Nevada.

Slated to open in 2028, Thacker Pass is seen as a cornerstone of America’s clean energy strategy, promising to cut foreign dependence while fueling the EV boom.

Economic Impact for Nevada Communities

The Thacker Pass project also carries major local economic benefits. During construction, it is expected to create 1,800 jobs, with 360 permanent positions once operational. These jobs range from chemical processing specialists to management roles, providing new opportunities for rural Nevada.

The Biden administration earlier emphasized that the project aligns with its pledge to ensure the energy transition generates prosperity in communities that have historically been left out of economic growth.

• SEE ALSO: Live Lithium Prices Today

Why Trump Wants a Bigger Piece

Despite bipartisan support, the Trump administration has raised concerns about loan repayment amid a slump in lithium prices caused by Chinese overproduction. The fear: Lithium Americas might struggle to repay the DOE loan, potentially putting taxpayer dollars at risk.

Trump officials are demanding stronger safeguards, including:

• Equity Warrants: No-cost warrants that could give Washington 5%–10% ownership of Lithium Americas.
• GM Guarantees: A binding commitment that General Motors (GM) will purchase lithium from Thacker Pass for decades.
• Project Oversight: Pressure on GM to relinquish parts of its project control to the federal government.

GM’s $625 Million Bet on Lithium

GM invested $625 million in Thacker Pass in 2024, securing a 38% stake and long-term supply rights. The automaker locked in access to all lithium from the mine’s first phase and part of the second phase for 20 years, making the project essential to GM’s EV strategy.

A GM spokesperson stressed: “We’re confident in the project, which supports the administration’s goals. The loan is a necessary part of financing to commercialize this important national resource.”

For GM, Thacker Pass is a supply lifeline as it ramps up EV production under its electrification roadmap.

• SEE DETAILS: General Motors Invests $625M in Lithium Americas to Boost Nevada’s Thacker Pass Lithium Project 

A Tightrope Over Loan Restructuring

Lithium Americas had sought a modification in the loan’s amortization schedule—shifting when certain payments are due, though not altering the overall repayment timeline or interest owed.

In exchange, the company offered no-cost equity warrants equal to 5–10% of its common shares and funds to cover the administrative costs of restructuring.

But as we understand, Trump officials want more. They see the deal as a chance to ensure taxpayers capture upside from any future rise in lithium prices and to cement federal influence over a strategic resource.

Even under the existing loan agreement, Washington holds protections. Reuter explained that clauses in the contract allow the government to seize control of the project if it faces significant delays or cost overruns. That safeguard reflects how seriously the U.S. views critical mineral projects in its broader economic and defense strategy.

• SEE ALSO: Boom, Bust, and Echo: Mastering the Lithium Market

Lithium Supply: America’s Weak Spot

Currently, the U.S. produces less than 5000 tonnes of lithium per year, less than 1% of global supply. By contrast, Australia, Chile, and China dominate mining, while China refines over 75% of the world’s battery-grade lithium.

Latest lithium data from USGS shows:

• U.S. reserves: ~1.8 million tonnes.
• Geological resources: ~19 million tonnes.
• Global production (2024): 240,000 tonnes.

That imbalance leaves the U.S. heavily exposed. Overreliance on foreign supply chains poses risks to defense capabilities, infrastructure, and technology development. With minerals traveling an average of 50,000 miles before being assembled into batteries, the carbon footprint of global lithium supply is also a concern.

Thacker Pass promises to change the equation by establishing a domestic EV battery supply chain, reducing emissions, and enhancing economic security.

China’s Grip on Lithium

China may not be the top miner of lithium, but its control of refining capacity is unrivaled. The country processes 60–75% of the global supply, turning raw ore into the high-purity lithium carbonate and hydroxide required for EV batteries.

That dominance has raised concerns in the U.S., which views domestic lithium production as crucial for both the energy transition and national security. Direct U.S. ownership in Thacker Pass would send a clear message: America is ready to compete.

• RELARED: The Lithium Market is Quiet, Until It’s Not

Lithium Americas Stock (NYSE: LAC) Jumps

This announcement fueled a dramatic rally in Lithium Americas’ stock. Shares closed at $3.07, then soared pre-market to $5.23 – a remarkable jump of nearly 71%. After markets opened, the price surged even higher, reaching $6.30 intraday. The rally sent the company’s market capitalization above $1.39 billion, highlighting how direct government involvement can rapidly transform investor confidence and reshape valuation.

Other U.S. lithium developers—including ioneer (ASX: INR), Standard Lithium (TSX-V: SLI), and even Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), which has entered lithium projects—are closely watching. If Washington pursues direct ownership across the sector, project financing and timelines could shift overnight.

By seeking a stake in Lithium Americas, the Trump administration is reshaping how the U.S. approaches critical mineral projects. It’s now about equity and control.

A Turning Point for U.S. Lithium

Thacker Pass is becoming the test case for America’s resource nationalism. With Trump pushing for equity, and GM relying on its output for EV production, the project sits at the intersection of energy security, industrial policy, and the clean energy future.

Additionally, analysts are also considering a reduction in the volatility of lithium prices with this deal. Notably, SMM data shows battery-grade lithium carbonate prices are approximately $9,165 per metric tonne (USD) and battery-grade lithium hydroxide around $9,200 to $9,800 per metric tonne.

If successful, Thacker Pass could anchor a new domestic lithium district and accelerate the U.S. energy transition. But with Washington demanding a slice of ownership, the deal could redefine how America funds and controls its most critical resources. However, it’s marking a new era in the race for clean energy minerals.

• ALSO READ: Ioneer Boosts Rhyolite Ridge Lithium-Boron Reserve by 308%, Targets Low-Cost Production 

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