Thacker Pass Is Being Built: Here Is Why That Is the Best News NILI Investors Have Heard All Year.

Disseminated on behalf of Surge Battery Metals.

Lithium Americas (LAC) has officially broken ground at Thacker Pass, Nevada. The project is advancing toward its first production target in 2028. LAC CEO Jonathan Evans said in the company’s news release that the project should be mechanically complete by the end of 2026. Commissioning will happen through 2027, with commercial production starting in 2028.

For investors watching Nevada clay lithium, this milestone is more than an update. It’s a market signal that could change the investment landscape.

De-Risking the Clay Lithium Category

For years, clay-based lithium has faced a single recurring objection: “It has never been done at a commercial scale.” Unlike brine or hard-rock lithium, sedimentary clay deposits presented a technological and operational unknown. Investors and lenders were cautious, capital costs were higher, and early-stage projects struggled to secure financing.

Thacker Pass changes that narrative. Once LAC makes battery-grade lithium carbonate from sedimentary clay at a commercial scale, it reduces risks for the whole category. Projects in Nevada now have clear proof that clay-based lithium can be mined and processed effectively.

The historical precedent is instructive. In Chile’s Atacama region, the first brine lithium projects proved the chemistry and cost-effectiveness of large-scale lithium extraction. Later projects attracted capital more easily and on better terms. This created a ripple effect, speeding up the region’s lead in global lithium supply.

Thacker Pass is playing that same role for sedimentary clay. Its success is not just a win for LAC. It marks a key milestone for the whole Nevada clay lithium sector, including the Nevada North Lithium Project (NNLP) of Surge Battery Metals (TSX-V: NILI | OTCQX: NILIF).

Understanding the Technical Landscape

Thacker Pass Phase 1 has lithium levels of 1,500–2,500 ppm. They plan to extract it using sulfuric acid leaching to create battery-grade lithium carbonate. The project is important both geographically and operationally.

It features a large pit, a big processing facility, and integrated infrastructure. This covers access roads, water supply management, and energy sources that meet Nevada’s rules.

Thacker Pass lithium mine project
Source: Lithium Americas

While Thacker Pass shows commercial viability, it is crucial to note that NNLP and Thacker Pass are not technically the same. NNLP employs a different beneficiation approach and reagent chemistry to optimize recovery.

NNLP: The Higher-Grade, Next-Generation Project

Thacker Pass shows clay lithium on a large scale. NNLP positions itself as the next evolution of this asset class, with clear geological advantages:

  • Grade: NNLP averages 3,010 ppm lithium, significantly higher than Thacker Pass Phase 1 material. Recent drilling results show that step-out drilling found a 31-meter intercept with 4,196 ppm lithium from surface. This gives NNLP a potential extraction advantage.
  • Strip Ratio: NNLP’s 1.16:1 strip ratio is among the lowest in the sedimentary clay peer group. This indicates that it has favorable material movement requirements relative to ore recovered.
  • Operating Costs: NNLP’s estimated OPEX is US$5,097/t LCE, lower than Thacker Pass guidance of ~US$6,200/t C1. It suggests that it has competitive economic positioning within the peer group.

Both projects produce battery-grade lithium carbonate using sulfuric acid leaching. However, each method is customized for the specific geology of the project. NNLP is not a copy of Thacker Pass. Rather, it is a next-generation clay project designed to leverage lessons learned while improving key parameters.

Surge lithium clay comparison

Moreover, infill drilling showed a steady, thick, high-grade core. It included intercepts like 116 meters at 3,752 ppm Li and 32 meters at 4,521 ppm Li. These results support future resource expansion. They also highlight the project’s scale, quality, and technical readiness as it prepares for a Pre-Feasibility Study.

Why Category De-Risking Matters for Investors

In emerging resource sectors, de-risking is often more valuable than the resource itself. Projects that validate a new extraction method or commodity unlock several market advantages:

  1. Lower financing risk: Investors are more willing to fund projects once proof of concept exists.
  2. Improved capital terms: Lending rates and equity expectations can improve when technology and economics are validated.
  3. Accelerated project development: Developers can move faster, reduce contingencies, and focus on optimization rather than proving viability.

Thacker Pass’s progress effectively removes the “first-mover risk” from sedimentary clay projects. NNLP has higher grades, near-surface mineralization, and competitive OPEX. Now, it can be assessed on its own merits, not on doubts about large-scale clay processing.

Strategic Significance in the U.S. Lithium Market

The timing of Thacker Pass’s construction and NNLP’s development aligns with broader policy and market trends. Lithium is a critical input for electric vehicles, grid-scale storage, and advanced defense technologies. The U.S. government has emphasized domestic lithium production as a strategic priority.

In March 2025, President Trump signed an executive order called “Immediate Measures to Increase American Mineral Production.” This order directs federal agencies to speed up permitting and support domestic projects. It also aims to lessen dependence on foreign supply chains for critical minerals.

Projects like Thacker Pass and NNLP benefit from this policy. They provide secure domestic sources that boost the lithium supply chain.

Nevada is central to this strategy. Its clay deposits are among the largest and best in the U.S. They provide a stable base for domestic lithium production, which supports electrification goals and helps reduce reliance on imports.

Thacker Pass’s progress also sends a signal beyond the Nevada clay sector. It demonstrates that investors and capital markets are willing to back sedimentary clay projects at scale. That validation reduces perceived risk for future projects. It also speeds up permitting and development timelines as well as strengthens valuation metrics.

NNLP, with its superior grade and shallower resource, stands to benefit disproportionately. It is no longer constrained by questions of category viability. It can now be evaluated based on its geological quality, operational efficiency, and potential returns.

NNLP’s advantages, combined with the category de-risking effect of Thacker Pass, position it as a next-generation investment opportunity in Nevada’s clay lithium space.

Looking Ahead: Domestic Lithium’s Role in Energy Transition

Lithium demand is set to grow rapidly as electric vehicles, battery storage, and renewable systems expand. Securing a high-quality, domestic supply is critical to maintaining U.S. leadership in clean energy technology.

lithium demand growth through 2035

Thacker Pass proves that commercial-scale sedimentary clay lithium is achievable. NNLP demonstrates the potential for even higher efficiency and superior economics within the same category. Together, these projects show how local resources can support the energy transition while providing compelling investment opportunities.

NNLP’s higher grades, near-surface mineralization, low strip ratio, and competitive OPEX position it as a leading asset within a now-validated category.

For NILI investors, the message is clear: the clay lithium category is no longer theoretical, and NNLP is positioned to capitalize on the proof-of-concept success. The best news of the year is here—and it’s grounded in both science and strategy.


DISCLAIMER 

New Era Publishing Inc. and/or CarbonCredits.com (“We” or “Us”) are not securities dealers or brokers, investment advisers, or financial advisers, and you should not rely on the information herein as investment advice. Surge Battery Metals Inc. (“Company”) made a one-time payment of $90,000 to provide marketing services for a term of three months. None of the owners, members, directors, or employees of New Era Publishing Inc. and/or CarbonCredits.com currently hold, or have any beneficial ownership in, any shares, stocks, or options of the companies mentioned.

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CAUTIONARY STATEMENT AND FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION

Certain statements contained in this news release may constitute “forward-looking information” within the meaning of applicable securities laws. Forward-looking information generally can be identified by words such as “anticipate,” “expect,” “estimate,” “forecast,” “plan,” and similar expressions suggesting future outcomes or events. Forward-looking information is based on current expectations of management; however, it is subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated.

These factors include, without limitation, statements relating to the Company’s exploration and development plans, the potential of its mineral projects, financing activities, regulatory approvals, market conditions, and future objectives. Forward-looking information involves numerous risks and uncertainties and actual results might differ materially from results suggested in any forward-looking information. These risks and uncertainties include, among other things, market volatility, the state of financial markets for the Company’s securities, fluctuations in commodity prices, operational challenges, and changes in business plans.

Forward-looking information is based on several key expectations and assumptions, including, without limitation, that the Company will continue with its stated business objectives and will be able to raise additional capital as required. Although management of the Company has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially, there may be other factors that cause results not to be as anticipated, estimated, or intended.

There can be no assurance that such forward-looking information will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking information. Additional information about risks and uncertainties is contained in the Company’s management’s discussion and analysis and annual information form for the year ended December 31, 2025, copies of which are available on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca.

The forward-looking information contained herein is expressly qualified in its entirety by this cautionary statement. Forward-looking information reflects management’s current beliefs and is based on information currently available to the Company. The forward-looking information is made as of the date of this news release, and the Company assumes no obligation to update or revise such information to reflect new events or circumstances except as may be required by applicable law.


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Tesla Reclaims EV Sales Crown from BYD in Q1 2026, Heating Up the EV Race

Tesla Reclaims EV Sales Crown from BYD in Q1 2026, Heating Up the EV Race

Tesla has reclaimed the global electric vehicle (EV) sales crown, overtaking BYD in early 2026. In the first quarter of 2026, Tesla delivered 358,023 EVs worldwide. This figure edged out BYD’s 310,389 EV deliveries, giving Tesla back the lead in pure battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales and sending stock slightly upward.

Tesla’s sales in this period rose about 6.3% year‑over‑year, showing a rebound from slower parts of 2025. This shift matters because the EV giant lost the annual global BEV sales lead in 2025.

Last year, BYD’s annual pure electric vehicle sales were higher than Tesla’s, largely due to China’s strong EV demand and policy changes.

The recent growth in Tesla’s sales shows high demand for its main models. The Model Y and Model 3 made up most of the deliveries in Q1 2026.

Battle of the EV Titans: Tesla vs. BYD

Competition between Tesla and BYD has become one of the defining stories in global EV markets.

BYD expanded rapidly over the past few years. It has a broad lineup of EVs and plug‑in hybrids and benefits from strong domestic sales in China. In 2025, BYD reported high sales growth as it strengthened its footprint outside China.

BYD vs TESLA ev sales 2025

Tesla, by contrast, focuses on a narrower range of pure EVs but scales production efficiently. It has manufacturing plants in the United States, China, and Europe. These facilities help cut costs and serve major markets more quickly.

The rivalry pushes both companies to improve pricing, technology, and production capacity. Tesla’s price cuts in some markets and BYD’s aggressive growth have kept competition tight.

The EV Boom: Markets on Overdrive

The global EV market keeps growing strongly. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), electric car sales reached more than 17 million units globally in 2024. EVs made up more than 20% of total new car sales that year — up from earlier levels.

Data from the IEA’s Global EV Outlook 2025 shows that electric light‑duty vehicle sales are expected to reach about 40% of total vehicle sales by 2030 under current policy trends.

The stock of EVs on the road is also growing. The global EV fleet could expand to around 245 million vehicles by 2030 under stated policies.

global EV sales 2024 china lead

Growth is strongest in China, Europe, and the United States. China remains the largest EV market, accounting for more than half of global EV sales in recent years.

Battery cost declines also fuel adoption. Average lithium‑ion battery prices have fallen significantly over the past decade, making electric vehicles more affordable. Governments around the world are also boosting EV uptake with incentives and stricter emissions standards.

Tesla’s Playbook: Scale, Tech, and Price Moves

Tesla’s return to the top reflects its focus on production scale and cost efficiency. The company has reduced vehicle prices in key markets to stay competitive. These price cuts helped increase demand, though they also put pressure on profit margins.

Elon Musk’s EV company continues to invest in manufacturing technology. Its “gigafactories” use advanced automation and large casting techniques to reduce production costs. Newer facilities in the U.S. and abroad help Tesla maintain output even as demand shifts.

The company is also developing next‑generation vehicles. These include plans for more affordable EV models designed to attract a wider range of buyers.

Tesla is expanding its energy business as well. This includes battery storage systems and solar products that align with the company’s broader clean energy goals.

Tesla energy generation and storage
Source: Tesla

Software remains a strength for Tesla. Features like over‑the‑air updates and driver assist systems add value for customers and differentiate Tesla’s vehicles from competitors.

Wall Street Watches, TSLA Reacts

Tesla’s stock, traded as TSLA, has shown volatility in response to sales news.

After Tesla’s delivery numbers in Q1 2026 showed the company regaining the BEV sales lead, its shares saw some short‑term gains. However, the stock has remained volatile. Broader concerns about pricing pressure, excess inventory, and competition have kept investor sentiment cautious.

TESLA stock price TSLA

In early 2026, shares pulled back after production exceeded deliveries and analysts noted weaker-than-expected margins. Tesla produced 408,386 vehicles in Q1 2026 but delivered 358,023, leaving some inventory unsold. This gap contributed to stock pressure.

Despite these swings, Tesla remains one of the highest‑valued automakers in the world. Its market capitalization continues to reflect expectations about future EV adoption and the company’s role in clean energy.

Market watchers note that Tesla’s ability to maintain leadership in BEV sales affects its valuation. Strong delivery figures help support confidence in Tesla’s long‑term strategy, even as competition increases.

Beyond sales and competition, Tesla’s EVs also play a key role in the global effort to reduce carbon emissions and fight climate change.

EVs Fighting Climate Change, One Mile at a Time

Electric vehicles help cut carbon emissions from transport. Road transport is a major source of energy‑related emissions. In recent years, EVs made up more than 20% of global car sales, according to the IEA.

EVs reduce oil demand and lower emissions. The global EV fleet could rise to nearly 245 million vehicles by 2030 under stated policy scenarios, significantly displacing traditional gasoline and diesel cars.

EV sales share by region 2030 IEA

As EV adoption grows, the carbon intensity of the electricity grid becomes more important. EVs charged with cleaner power produce larger net emission benefits.

Even with mixed grid emissions, EVs still reduce lifetime greenhouse gas output compared with internal combustion vehicles.

Governments around the world support EV adoption with stricter fuel standards, tax incentives, and expanded charging networks. These policies help ensure electric vehicles contribute to global decarbonization and climate goals.

Outlook: Growth, Competition, and Innovation

The EV market is expected to grow strongly in the coming years. Demand is supported by climate goals, advancing technology, and consumer interest in cleaner mobility.

Tesla’s return to the top in early 2026 shows that it remains a central player in the electric transition. Its focus on pure electric vehicles, global scale, and continuous innovation continues to fuel its position.

However, the gap between Tesla and competitors like BYD is narrowing. BYD’s strong EV growth, especially in China and expanding export markets, shows that competition remains intense.

Future leadership in the EV industry will depend on cost, technology, charging infrastructure, and the ability to scale production efficiently. Companies that balance these factors well will shape the next phase of the global EV market.

For now, Tesla’s rebound highlights both the rapid growth of the sector and the increasing intensity of competition among the world’s leading EV makers.

The post Tesla Reclaims EV Sales Crown from BYD in Q1 2026, Heating Up the EV Race appeared first on Carbon Credits.

Boeing Locks in 40,000 Tons of Soil Carbon Removal with Texas-Based Grassroots Carbon

The aviation industry is under pressure to cut emissions while demand for air travel continues to grow. Against this backdrop, Boeing’s latest agreement with Grassroots Carbon signals a clear shift in how large emitters approach climate action. Instead of relying heavily on traditional offsets, the company is now backing high-quality carbon removal rooted in nature.

This multi-year deal focuses on verified soil carbon removal. It reflects a broader industry trend: moving from compensation to actual carbon removal. More importantly, it connects climate goals with real economic benefits for rural communities.

Boeing’s Shift: From Offsets to Real Carbon Removal

Boeing’s agreement to purchase at least 40,000 metric tons of carbon removal credits marks more than just another sustainability initiative. It shows a deeper transition in its carbon strategy.

Earlier, many companies relied on carbon offsets to balance emissions. However, Boeing has refined its approach. It now follows an “avoid first, remove second” model. This means the company prioritizes cutting emissions directly—through renewable electricity and sustainable aviation fuel—before addressing the remaining footprint.

Targeting Scope 3 Emissions 

Still, not all emissions can be eliminated. Business travel, classified under Scope 3 emissions, remains difficult to reduce. This is where carbon removal comes in. By investing in verified soil carbon credits, Boeing aims to tackle these residual emissions more credibly.

At the same time, this approach aligns with growing scrutiny in voluntary carbon markets. Buyers are increasingly looking for durable, science-backed solutions. Soil carbon, when properly measured and maintained, can meet these expectations.

Boeing emissions
Source: Boeing

Allison Melia, vice president, Global Enterprise Sustainability, Boeing, said:

“We’re proud to work with Grassroots to accelerate carbon-removal technology that will benefit the entire global aviation industry. Enabling the long-term growth of air travel and supporting our airline customers’ emissions reduction targets are key priorities for Boeing.”

Regenerative Ranching: Turning Soil into a Climate Asset

At the core of this agreement lies regenerative ranching—a land management approach that restores ecosystems while capturing carbon.

Unlike conventional grazing, regenerative systems mimic natural herd movements. Ranchers rotate livestock across pastures. This prevents overgrazing and allows vegetation to recover. As a result, plant roots grow deeper and stronger.

This process plays a critical role in carbon sequestration. Through photosynthesis, grasses absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. They then transfer this carbon into the soil through roots and organic matter. Over time, this builds stable soil carbon that can remain stored for decades.

Additionally, grazing itself can enhance this process. When managed properly, it stimulates plant growth and increases carbon storage below ground. Studies suggest these systems can capture between 1 to 5 tons of CO2 per hectare each year.

However, the benefits go beyond carbon. Healthier soils improve water retention, reduce erosion, and support biodiversity. Ranchers also see improved productivity and greater resilience to climate extremes.

This makes regenerative ranching a rare win-win solution. It supports climate goals while strengthening agricultural systems.

Soil Carbon Credits Are Gaining Credibility

Carbon credits often face criticism for lacking transparency or permanence. However, soil carbon credits are evolving quickly.

In this case, credits are generated by tracking changes in soil carbon over time. Projects establish a baseline and then measure improvements driven by regenerative practices. Each credit corresponds to one metric ton of CO2 removed or avoided.

To ensure credibility, projects use a combination of soil sampling, satellite monitoring, and modeling. Independent verification further strengthens trust. Many of these credits meet standards set by leading registries such as Verra and the Climate Action Reserve.

Durability remains a key question. Soil carbon is considered a long-term storage solution, especially when supported by ongoing land management. In many cases, carbon can remain stored for 25 to 100 years or more.

For corporate buyers, this level of integrity is critical. It allows them to make credible climate claims while supporting real-world impact.

agriculture market size

How Grassroots Carbon Is Scaling a Natural Climate Solution

The United States holds a unique advantage in this space. Its grasslands cover roughly 655 million acres—nearly 40% of the country’s land area. These landscapes represent one of the largest untapped carbon sinks.

If managed effectively, they could remove up to 1 billion tons of CO2 equivalent annually. That potential makes soil carbon one of the most scalable nature-based solutions available today.

Grassroots Carbon is working to unlock this opportunity. The company partners with ranchers across more than 2.2 million acres in 22 states. It supports them in adopting regenerative practices while ensuring measurable climate outcomes.

Importantly, the company focuses on scientific rigor. It measures soil carbon directly, often up to one meter deep. Then, independent third parties verify the data using recognized standards. This process ensures that each carbon credit represents real and additional carbon removal.

  • The company has already delivered 1.9 million tons of verified carbon removals. A large portion of these credits has been retired by corporate buyers, reflecting strong market demand.

This scale matters. It shows that soil carbon is not just a niche solution. Instead, it can operate at a level relevant to global climate goals.

soil carbon credits

Supporting Rural Economies

Moving on, regenerative ranching supports rural communities by creating new revenue streams. Ranchers can earn income from carbon credits while improving their land. This reduces financial pressure and encourages long-term stewardship.

Moreover, healthier ecosystems provide broader benefits. Improved soil structure enhances water retention, which is critical in drought-prone areas. Restored grasslands also support wildlife habitats, including bird populations.

Grassroots Carbon works with partners such as conservation groups and research institutions to ensure these outcomes. This collaborative approach strengthens both environmental and social impact.

grassroots carbon
Source: Grassroots Carbon

Aviation’s Broader Climate Challenge

The aviation sector faces one of the toughest decarbonization challenges. Unlike power generation or road transport, it cannot be easily electrified. Aircraft require high-energy-density fuels, which limit near-term options.

Sustainable aviation fuel offers a partial solution. However, supply remains limited, and costs are high. As a result, carbon removal will likely play a growing role in the sector’s strategy.

AlliedOffsets estimates that carbon credit buyers will spend around $2.27 billion per year.  Aviation and energy are expected to contribute the most.

  • The aviation sector alone has a budget of over $800 million per year, which is about one-third of the total.

Boeing, by supporting soil carbon projects, diversifies its approach to emissions reduction. The biggest advantage is that soil carbon removal is both scalable and immediately deployable. Unlike emerging technologies, it does not require decades of development. Instead, it builds on existing agricultural practices.

At the same time, this move sends a signal to the market. Large buyers can drive demand for high-quality carbon removal. This, in turn, encourages more investment and innovation in the space.

However, scaling this solution will require continued investment, strong verification, and supportive policies. It will also depend on maintaining trust in carbon markets. However, as demand for carbon removal grows, partnerships like this could become a cornerstone of global decarbonization efforts.

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SHEIN Teams Up with DHL to Cut Air Cargo Emissions with Sustainable Fuel

SHEIN Teams Up with DHL to Cut Air Cargo Emissions with Sustainable Fuel

SHEIN, the global online fashion and lifestyle retailer, has taken a new step in cutting the climate impact of its logistics. The company signed an agreement with DHL Group to use DHL’s GoGreen Plus service. This service allows corporate customers to support the use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in air cargo operations.

SAF is blended into regular jet fuel to reduce carbon emissions from flights. This move is part of SHEIN’s broader work to explore low‑carbon solutions for its air transport footprint.

Mustan Lalani, SHEIN’s Head of Sustainability, remarked:

“Working with partners such as DHL allows us to better understand how sustainable aviation fuel solutions may be incorporated into air cargo logistics. Initiatives like this are part of SHEIN’s broader efforts to explore how emerging approaches across the aviation sector may contribute to addressing carbon emissions associated with air transport.”

What Sustainable Aviation Fuel Is: Cutting Emissions at the Source

DHL’s GoGreen Plus service gives customers lifecycle emissions reductions from SAF. It uses recognized accounting and certification methods. This means SHEIN can include a share of SAF‑related emissions reductions in its corporate reporting.

The collaboration follows earlier deals. In 2025, SHEIN signed a memorandum of understanding with Lufthansa Cargo to explore sustainable air freight technologies and fuel use.

Sustainable aviation fuel comes from renewable or low-carbon sources. These include used cooking oil, agricultural waste, and non-fossil carbon materials. Compared with conventional jet fuel, SAF can cut lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions by up to 80%. This is because SAF feedstocks carry less net carbon when burned, considering their origin and life cycle.

Air transport remains a significant source of emissions as global trade and e‑commerce grow. SAF is one of the few scalable solutions available today that can work with existing aircraft engines and fuel infrastructure. It reduces emissions at the source rather than offsetting them after the fact.

SAF is still a small part of global aviation fuel. However, demand and investment are rising due to the industry’s push for net-zero goals. The chart below shows how much SAF is necessary to meet the air transport net-zero target.

Growing Market for SAF: A $16 Billion Industry by 2030

The global sustainable aviation fuel market is expanding rapidly. A recent report by Grand View Research estimates the market was worth US$1.04 billion in 2024. It projects that the industry could reach US$15.85 billion by 2030, growing at a 57.5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2025 to 2030.

sustainable-aviation-fuel-market-size

This growth is driven by several factors:

  • Rising corporate and airline decarbonization targets,
  • Stronger environmental regulations,
  • Supportive government policy, and
  • Increasing investment in SAF technologies.

Airlines and logistics providers are under pressure to cut emissions and invest in cleaner fuel alternatives.

Bio-based SAF comes from plants, waste oils, or renewables. It leads the market since it blends easily with jet fuel, needing few changes to aircraft.

Despite strong projected growth, SAF still accounts for less than 1% of global jet fuel use today. Industry groups, like the International Air Transport Association (IATA), estimate that SAF will supply about 0.7% of aviation fuel by 2025. This is due to slow production growth. By 2030, SAF production ranges from 17 to 20 Mt. 

SAF supply forecast 2030

Governments in some regions are introducing mandates to increase SAF usage. For example, the UK requires airlines to blend at least 2% SAF starting in 2025, rising to 10% by 2030 and 22% by 2040. These rules aim to spur SAF production and adoption.

SHEIN’s Sustainability Goals and Progress

SHEIN has publicly committed to reducing its environmental impact and aligning with climate science goals. The company’s science‑based, net‑zero target has been approved by the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi). Under this plan, SHEIN aims to reach net‑zero greenhouse gas emissions across its value chain by 2050.

Shein emission reduction targets
Source: SHEIN

The approved targets include reducing Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 42% by 2030 and reducing Scope 3 emissions by 25% by 2030. SHEIN also plans to source 100% renewable electricity by 2030 as part of its energy transition.

SHEIN 2024 GHG emissions profile
Source: SHEIN

SHEIN developed a decarboniZation roadmap in 2024 with support from external sustainability consultants. This roadmap guides the company’s emissions reduction efforts and is designed to align with the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to 1.5 °C.

The logistics footprint — especially Scope 3 emissions from transportation and deliveries — is a major contributor to SHEIN’s overall emissions profile. Exploring low‑carbon fuels like SAF is a practical step in addressing these emissions categories.

Shein upstream shipping
Source: Stand.earth

Pilots, Traceability, and Carbon Accounting

DHL’s GoGreen Plus service lets customers increase the share of SAF blended into the fuel used in its air cargo network. Under the SHEIN agreement, partners like logistics providers, airlines, and certification frameworks team up. They work to allocate emissions reductions clearly for SHEIN’s reports.

SHEIN’s SAF initiatives include pilot programmes with cargo partners. In 2025, SHEIN procured 187.3 tonnes of SAF for use on 14 Atlas Air charter flights. This reduced an estimated 579.1 tonnes of CO₂ equivalent emissions compared with conventional aviation fuel.

The company is also participating in a SAF pilot in China alongside China National Aviation Fuel (CNAF) and the Second Research Institute of Civil Aviation of China. SHEIN plans to procure SAF through Air China Cargo, using traceability systems to document SAF usage and related emissions benefits.

Moreover, SHEIN joined the World Economic Forum’s Green Fuel Forward campaign. This campaign works to speed up SAF adoption in the Asia-Pacific region. It does this by building capacity, raising awareness, and encouraging collaboration.

Limited Supply, High Costs, Big Potential

Sustainable aviation fuel holds promise but also faces hurdles. Current SAF production capacity is limited, and costs remain significantly higher than conventional jet fuel. This makes widespread adoption difficult for many companies and airlines.

Because SAF is still a small part of the global aviation fuel supply, its current emissions impact is modest. SHEIN acknowledges that the emissions reductions from its initial SAF activities are limited relative to its total air transport footprint. But these pilots will help build experience and partnerships for broader future deployment.

Looking ahead, SAF market growth could ramp up as production capacity rises and regulatory and corporate demand increase. With strong annual growth rates, more companies might add SAF to their supply chains. This helps them meet climate goals and satisfy stakeholders.

For SHEIN, expanding SAF use through partnerships like DHL’s GoGreen Plus could help the company gain operational insights, shape emissions accounting frameworks, and position itself as a participant in emerging low‑carbon logistics solutions.

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Microsoft Signs 626,000-Tonne Carbon Removal Deal with Svante and Indigenous-Led North Star Project in Canada

Microsoft (MSFT stock) has signed a long-term carbon removal agreement that highlights both the scale and direction of the emerging carbon market. The company will purchase 626,000 tonnes of durable carbon dioxide removal (CDR) credits over 15 years from the North Star project in Saskatchewan, Canada.

This project is being developed by Svante Technologies Inc. in partnership with the Meadow Lake Tribal Council (MLTC), through their joint venture North Star Carbon Solutions LP.

The facility will use bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to remove CO₂ from the atmosphere and store it permanently underground. Notably, the project will be co-located at the existing MLTC Bioenergy Centre and powered by waste biomass from a nearby Indigenous-owned sawmill.

This makes it one of the first fully integrated, Indigenous-led BECCS projects in Canada and a landmark deal in Microsoft’s growing carbon removal portfolio.

Indigenous-Led Carbon Project Sets New Benchmark in Canada

The North Star project stands out not just for its technology, but also for its ownership model. It is expected to be Canada’s first major Indigenous-owned, high-quality carbon removal project. The Meadow Lake Tribal Council, which represents several First Nations communities, plays a central role in both ownership and development.

This structure ensures that economic benefits stay within the local community. During construction, the project is expected to create around 50 jobs. Once operational, it will support a smaller but steady workforce while also boosting demand for nearby businesses. As a result, the project delivers both climate and economic value.

Equally important, the facility will rely on an existing industrial ecosystem. The MLTC Bioenergy Centre already generates renewable energy using wood waste.

That waste comes from the NorSask Forest Products sawmill, which is owned by MLTC and supplied through sustainably managed forests. This close integration reduces costs, improves efficiency, and strengthens the project’s environmental credibility.

Phillip Goodman, Director of Carbon Removal Portfolio, Microsoft, said:

“We’re pleased to work with North Star Carbon Solutions and Meadow Lake Tribal Council to help advance high-quality, durable carbon dioxide removal. To meet our climate goals, we need to help scale solutions that deliver durable storage and are backed by rigorous monitoring and verification. This agreement supports an Indigenous-led collaboration that enables the infrastructure needed to bring durable carbon removal online in Canada, thus creating a pathway for additional projects over time.”

How the North Star BECCS System Works

The North Star facility uses BECCS, a technology widely seen as critical for achieving net-zero emissions. It combines renewable energy production with carbon capture to deliver negative emissions.

  • In this system, trees first absorb CO₂ from the atmosphere as they grow. When these trees are processed for wood products, leftover biomass is used as fuel to generate energy.
  • Normally, this process would release carbon back into the air. However, in this case, the CO₂ is captured before it can escape.
  • The captured carbon is then compressed, transported, and injected deep underground into a secure geological formation.

This ensures long-term storage, often lasting hundreds or even thousands of years. Continuous monitoring systems track the stored carbon to ensure safety and permanence.

Here’s a representation of the BECCS process:

north star beccs carbon removal
Source: Svante

A Fully Integrated “Source-to-Sink” Model

From the process explained above, it’s clear that one of the most important features of the North Star project is its fully integrated design. It connects every step of the carbon removal process, from biomass supply to permanent storage.

This end-to-end system improves efficiency and reduces uncertainty. It also strengthens the credibility of the carbon credits produced.

Significantly, Svante will fund the project through its early stages, supporting development until a final investment decision is made. Commercial operations are expected to begin in early 2029.

Reliable Carbon Removal, Verified and Transparent

At full capacity, the facility is expected to capture up to 90,000 tonnes of CO₂ annually. Over the 15-year contract period, this will translate into the delivery of 626,000 tonnes of verified carbon removal credits to Microsoft.

All credits will follow strict monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) standards, ensuring transparency and quality.

Microsoft Scales Up Carbon Removal Strategy

This agreement is part of Microsoft’s broader push to scale carbon removal. The company has rapidly increased its purchases over the past few years, signaling a shift from small pilot projects to large, long-term commitments.

In 2023, Microsoft contracted roughly 5 million tonnes of carbon removal. By 2024, that number rose to 22 million metric tons. In 2025, the target surged further to around 45 million tonnes, as announced by the company. This sharp increase shows how quickly the company is building a diversified carbon removal portfolio.

microsoft carbon removals
Source: Microsoft

Importantly, Microsoft does not rely on a single technology. Instead, it spreads its investments across multiple pathways, including BECCS, direct air capture, and mineralization. This approach reduces risk while supporting the development of different solutions.

Recent agreements reflect this strategy. These include multi-million-tonne deals with BECCS facilities in the United States and Europe. Together, they position Microsoft as one of the most influential buyers in the global carbon removal market.

Rising Emissions Make Carbon Removal Essential

Despite its climate commitments, Microsoft faces a growing emissions challenge. The company’s total emissions have increased by more than 30% compared to 2020 levels. This rise is largely driven by the rapid expansion of data centers, cloud services, and AI infrastructure.

These operations require vast amounts of energy and materials, making it difficult to cut emissions quickly. As a result, carbon removal has become a key part of Microsoft’s strategy.

However, the company is clear about its priorities. It focuses first on reducing emissions through efficiency and clean energy. Carbon removal is used only for emissions that cannot be eliminated.

This approach supports Microsoft’s ambitious net-zero goals. The company aims to become carbon negative by 2030 and aims to run on 100% renewable electricity and eliminate all historical emissions by 2050.

microsoft emissions
Source: Microsoft

BECCS Market Gains Momentum

The North Star deal also reflects growing interest in BECCS technology. While still at an early stage, the global BECCS market is expanding rapidly. Analysts expect it to grow at a CAGR of around 19.27% from 2024 to 2030 as governments and companies seek reliable carbon removal solutions.

beccs
Source: marknteladvisors

BECCS is particularly valuable because it can deliver durable removals. Unlike some nature-based solutions, which may face risks like fires or land-use changes, BECCS stores carbon permanently underground. This makes it attractive for companies looking for high-quality credits.

According to the International Energy Agency, BECCS could play a major role in climate mitigation. It may contribute up to 15% of the emissions reductions needed by 2100 to limit global warming to 2°C.

At the same time, challenges remain. Concerns about biomass sourcing, land use, and storage safety continue to shape the debate. Even so, projects like North Star aim to address these issues through sustainable sourcing and rigorous monitoring.

North Star Marks a New Era in Carbon Markets

In conclusion, the Microsoft–North Star agreement highlights how quickly the carbon removal market is evolving. Large buyers are now committing to long-term deals that help bring new projects to life.

At the same time, the project sets a new benchmark for inclusive climate action. Indigenous ownership ensures that local communities benefit directly from the energy transition.

As demand for durable carbon removal continues to grow, more projects like North Star are likely to emerge. These developments will play a critical role in helping companies meet climate targets while building a scalable, high-integrity carbon market.

In that sense, this deal is more than just a contract. It is a clear signal that carbon removal is moving from concept to reality—and becoming a core part of global climate strategy.

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Africa’s $100B Carbon Opportunity: How Sovereign Markets Could Lead the World

Africa’s $100B Carbon Opportunity: How Sovereign Markets Could Lead the World

Africa’s carbon markets are growing fast. Governments, companies, and global institutions are paying more attention to the continent’s carbon credit potential. Estimates from a renewable energy company’s research arm, Axina Group, show Africa’s carbon market could reach $100 billion by 2030 and grow even more over time.

This growth depends on strong policies and good market systems. Countries that control how carbon credits are made, verified, and sold—called sovereign carbon markets—can capture more value. This also helps them reach climate goals.

The Africa Carbon Markets Initiative (ACMI) sets a clear roadmap. It aims to produce 300 million carbon credits per year by 2030, growing to 1.5 billion credits per year by 2050. This could make Africa one of the world’s largest carbon credit producers.

Global organizations, including the World Bank, support this view. They point to Africa’s natural resources and improving policies as key reasons for growth.

ACMI ambition
Source: ACMI report

Africa’s Green Gold: Forests, Wetlands, and Carbon Sinks

Africa has huge natural carbon sinks. These include tropical forests, wetlands, and grasslands. They absorb carbon dioxide from the air, which forms the basis for carbon credits.

Tropical forests alone absorb 1.1–1.5 billion tonnes of CO₂ each year. Millions of hectares of land can also be restored. Projects like reforestation and improved land use create carbon credits. They also improve soil, water, and biodiversity, and provide jobs for local communities.

Nature-based solutions are expected to play a big role. Globally, they could deliver up to one-third of the emissions reductions needed by 2030. Africa has a large share of this opportunity. But today, the continent still produces a small part of global carbon credits, indicating there is room for strong growth.

Africa Nature-based solutions
Source: ACMI

Several companies and platforms are shaping Africa’s carbon market by developing projects and linking them to buyers. For example, Africa Carbon Partners develops large nature‑based projects that protect forests and generate verified credits across West and Central Africa.

Moreover, ZeroCarbon Africa connects smallholder farmers to global carbon markets with real‑time tracking and fair pricing. Meanwhile, Climera uses blockchain technology to increase transparency in carbon credit issuance and tracking.

Other regional platforms like SB Power Africa and PanAfricaCarbon offer project development and trading services. In addition, global certification bodies like Verra support many African projects by certifying carbon credits under established standards.

From Voluntary Markets to Sovereign Systems

Most African carbon projects now operate in voluntary carbon markets (VCMs). Companies buy credits to offset emissions they cannot eliminate. But Africa accounts for only 9–11% of retired carbon credits in recent years.

Sovereign carbon market systems can change this, with governments taking a central role. They set rules, approve projects, and manage sales. This improves transparency and ensures projects meet national climate goals, also called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement.

Countries such as Kenya, Nigeria, and Gabon are already building national carbon strategies. These strategies aim to capture more value locally. Projects often include rules that share revenue with governments and communities. This can fund local services, climate projects, and economic development.

The AFRICA RISING 2026 report by Axina Group projects specific national revenue from carbon-related assets using sovereign systems. For example:

  • Ghana could generate $1.8 billion annually by 2030
  • Nigeria could capture over $400 million annually
  • Tanzania could reach over $120 million annually
  • Mozambique and Uganda also show potential for substantial carbon-linked revenue

These figures illustrate how sovereign systems can keep capital on the continent while encouraging local reinvestment and community benefits.

$100B Carbon Opportunity and Millions of Jobs

Carbon markets are expanding worldwide. The global carbon market reached about $949 billion in 2023. Voluntary carbon markets alone could grow to $10–40 billion by 2030. Carbon removal markets could reach $100 billion per year by 2030–2035, driven by industries like technology, finance, and aviation.

Africa’s projected $100 billion market by 2030 would make it one of the fastest-growing regions. High-quality carbon credits are in demand as companies try to reach net-zero emissions.

Carbon markets can also create many jobs. The ACMI estimates 30 million jobs by 2030, rising to over 110 million by 2050. Jobs include forest restoration, renewable energy projects, land management, and monitoring.

More notably, carbon finance can attract private investment. Many African countries have funding gaps for climate projects. Carbon markets offer a way to bring in private capital.

Revenue from carbon credits can also support communities. At $50 per tonne, nature-based projects could generate $15 billion annually. At $100 per tonne, this could rise to $57 billion. These projects create millions of jobs while helping the environment.

By integrating sovereign systems, individual countries can capture larger shares of these revenues. The AFRICA RISING 2026 report highlights that, with proper frameworks, countries like Ghana, Nigeria, and Tanzania could earn hundreds of millions to billions annually from carbon assets. This shows the economic value of combining policy, technology, and natural resources.

How Africa Could Lead Globally

Africa has a unique advantage. It has large carbon sinks and relatively low historical emissions compared to developed regions. This means it can grow carbon projects while still meeting climate targets.

If ACMI and country-level strategies succeed, Africa could become a major global supplier of carbon credits. Companies worldwide will need these credits to meet net-zero goals.

Africa carbon markets grow steadily

Nature-based carbon projects also deliver co-benefits. They improve soil, water, and biodiversity. They support rural livelihoods and local economies. This makes carbon markets a climate and development tool at the same time.

Trust, Fairness, and the Rules of the Game

However, challenges remain. Market integrity is key: Buyers need to trust that credits represent real, permanent emissions reductions.

There are concerns about fairness. Critics warn of “carbon colonialism,” where wealthy countries benefit more than local communities. Policies must ensure communities get a fair share of revenue.

Also, policy gaps exist. Many countries lack clear rules for carbon markets, which can scare investors. Infrastructure and technical tools, such as land management systems and data monitoring, are still developing. Carbon prices vary depending on project type and quality, adding uncertainty.

To succeed, African governments need strong laws, clear policies, and transparent systems. Partnerships with international organizations can build technical expertise. Monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) systems are crucial to ensure credibility.

A Defining Decade Ahead for Africa’s Carbon Markets

Africa’s carbon market is at a turning point. The next ten years will shape how the sector grows and how much it benefits the economy and climate.

If plans succeed, Africa could produce hundreds of millions of carbon credits annually. This would support global climate goals, attract investment, create jobs, and drive sustainable development.

The market’s size depends on policy, pricing, and execution, but demand for carbon credits is rising. Africa has the natural resources to meet that demand. With the right systems, the continent can turn its carbon potential into a long-term economic and climate advantage.

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TotalEnergies and Masdar’s $2.2 Billion Deal Signals a Big Push into Asia’s Renewable Energy Boom

Asia is entering a new energy era. Electricity demand is rising fast, and global energy giants are moving quickly to secure their position. A major $2.2 billion joint venture between TotalEnergies and Masdar reflects this shift. The deal is not just about building renewable assets. It is about capturing one of the biggest growth stories in global energy.

The simple reality is: Asia will drive most of the world’s electricity demand in the coming decade.

TotalEnergies and Masdar: A Power Partnership Built for Scale

The new joint venture brings together the strengths of both companies under a single platform. It creates a 50:50 partnership that will manage onshore renewable energy assets across nine countries. These include Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, and several fast-growing markets in Southeast Asia and Central Asia.

The platform already holds 3 gigawatts (GW) of operational capacity. On top of that, it has a pipeline of 6 GW expected to come online by 2030. This combination gives the venture a strong starting point and a clear growth path.

More importantly, the focus goes beyond just building solar or wind farms. The joint venture plans to integrate solar, wind, and battery storage systems. This approach supports grid stability and ensures a reliable energy supply. As renewable energy expands, such integration becomes essential.

This is not a small regional project. It is a large, coordinated effort designed to meet rising demand while supporting cleaner energy systems.

totalenergies MASDAR
Source: TotalEnergies

His Excellency Dr Sultan Al Jaber, UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology and Chairman of Masdar, noted:

“The UAE has established itself as a global energy leader by delivering at scale, investing with conviction, and building partnerships that endure. Masdar epitomizes that approach. We are proud to have pioneered renewable energy deployment in Central Asia and the Caucasus, and we have an expanding portfolio in some of the most attractive growth markets in Asia-Pacific. Asia will be the main driver of global electricity demand growth this decade, and this collaboration with TotalEnergies will accelerate our progress across the continent, unlocking new opportunities to deliver the competitive, reliable energy solutions that our partners and customers need.”

Asia’s Electricity Boom Is Reshaping Markets: Wood Mackenzie’s Analysis 

Asia has become the engine of global electricity demand. Over the past decade, the region accounted for nearly all new power demand compared to the United States and Europe.

In 2025, the scale reached a historic milestone. As per Wood Mac’s Asia Pacific Power & Renewables: What to look for in 2026 report, China alone generated over 10,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity. That was more than the combined output of the U.S. and Europe. At the same time, the rest of Asia continued to produce more electricity than either region year after year.

This growth is not random. It is driven by three powerful forces: rapid industrial expansion, urban population growth, and rising digital infrastructure.

Data centers are now a major driver. As artificial intelligence and cloud computing expand, electricity demand is rising sharply. Countries like Japan, China, and those in Southeast Asia are seeing new demand from this sector alone.

  • For example, Japan could add up to 66 TWh of demand from data centers by 2034. China may need an extra 668 TWh by 2030. Southeast Asia will also see steady increases as digital services grow.

Even short-term slowdowns have not changed the bigger picture. In early 2025, trade tensions and tariffs slowed demand growth. China’s power demand growth dropped to 2.5% in the first quarter. India and Southeast Asia also saw weaker numbers.

wood mackenzie asia report

However, the slowdown did not last long. By the third quarter, demand rebounded strongly. China recorded over 6% growth again. India and Southeast Asia also recovered, supported by industrial output and extreme heat driving cooling needs.

This resilience shows that Asia’s demand growth is not fragile. It is deeply rooted in economic and technological change.

Clean Energy Expansion Keeps Pace

As demand rises, clean energy is expanding quickly across Asia. IEA predicts that by 2030, 56% of the world’s electricity use will be in the Asia Pacific, up from 53% in 2025.

asia pacific clean energy renewable energy
Source: IEA

In 2025 alone, the region added nearly 500 GW of wind and solar capacity. This shows strong momentum toward decarbonization.

Governments are also playing a key role. Many countries are introducing policies that allow renewable energy to reach consumers directly. These steps make clean power more accessible and encourage further investment.

However, challenges remain. Supply chain bottlenecks and trade barriers continue to create uncertainty. Equipment shortages, especially for gas turbines, could slow down parts of the energy transition. At the same time, global political shifts are affecting trade flows and investment decisions.

Despite these issues, the overall direction is clear. Clean energy is growing, and it is becoming central to Asia’s power systems.

renewable energy

Strategic Moves in a Competitive Market

The partnership between TotalEnergies and Masdar reflects a deeper strategy. Both companies are positioning themselves for long-term growth in high-demand markets.

For TotalEnergies, the deal supports its Integrated Power strategy. This approach combines renewable generation with flexible energy solutions and market access. It helps the company manage supply and demand more effectively.

For Masdar, the partnership strengthens its presence across Asia. It also brings the advantage of working with a global energy major. This combination improves its ability to scale projects and enter new markets.

Leadership also highlights the importance of this collaboration. Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, Chairman of Masdar, emphasized that Asia will drive global electricity demand growth. He also pointed out that partnerships like this will help deliver reliable and competitive energy solutions.

The choice of Abu Dhabi as the control hub adds another layer of significance. It shows how the UAE is expanding its role in global energy markets, especially in clean energy investments.

The Road Ahead: Demand, Data, and Decarbonization

Looking forward, Asia will remain the dominant force in global electricity demand. By 2026, the region is expected to account for about 85% of new power demand worldwide. This is a massive share, especially as the U.S. and Europe also increase their demand due to AI and data centers.

China will continue to lead in absolute terms. However, India and Southeast Asia will play equally important roles as growth engines. Together, they will shape the region’s energy future.

At the same time, the energy transition will face key questions:

  • Can renewable energy keep up with rising demand?
  • Will supply chain issues slow progress?
  • How will countries balance growth with sustainability?

The answers will define the next phase of Asia’s energy story.

Thus, the $2.2 billion joint venture is a signal of where the energy world is heading. Companies are not just building power plants. They are building platforms that combine scale, technology, and market access.

Asia offers the biggest opportunity, but it also demands smart execution. Projects must be large, reliable, and integrated. They must support both growth and sustainability.

And this is why partnerships like the one between TotalEnergies and Masdar matter. They bring together capital, expertise, and long-term vision.

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U.S. Biofuel Market 2026: Can EPA Policies Offset War-Driven Volatility?

The U.S. biofuel industry stepped into 2026 with strong policy backing and rising demand. However, global events quickly changed the tone. A sharp escalation in the US–Israel–Iran conflict in late February sent shockwaves through energy markets. Oil prices jumped, supply chains tightened, and uncertainty spread across fuel markets.

At the same time, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) introduced its most ambitious biofuel policy yet under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). This created a powerful but complicated mix—long-term policy certainty collided with short-term geopolitical chaos.

As a result, the U.S. biofuel sector now faces a defining moment. Growth looks strong on paper, but rising costs and market volatility are testing how sustainable that growth really is.

EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin said:

“President Trump promised a Golden Age of American agriculture. Once again, his administration is delivering. Overall, ‘Set 2’ creates a larger, more stable, and more reliable domestic market for U.S. crops, strengthening farm income and rural economies. 

For 20 years, this program has diversified our nation’s energy supply and advanced American energy independence. EPA is proud to deliver on this mission and to do so at historic levels.”

EPA’s RFS ‘Set 2’ Rule Changes the Game

Amid this volatility, U.S. policy took a decisive turn. On March 26, 2026, the EPA finalized the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) “Set 2” rule, setting new blending targets for 2026 and 2027.

  • The new requirements are the highest in the program’s history. The EPA set total renewable volume obligations at 26.81 billion RINs for 2026 and 27.02 billion RINs for 2027.

These targets reflect a major increase compared to previous years and signal a strong push toward domestic biofuel production.

  • The policy focuses heavily on expanding the use of biomass-based diesel, including biodiesel and renewable diesel. This includes a 70 percent reallocation of small refinery exemptions granted for 2023–2025
  • At the same time, ethanol blending levels remain stable at 15 billion gallons annually, providing consistency for corn producers.

Additionally, the rule puts back 70% of the biofuel volumes that small refineries didn’t have to blend from 2023 to 2025. This effectively increases the burden on refiners while ensuring that biofuel demand remains strong.

us biofuel
Source: EPA

Policy Pivot Favors U.S. Biofuel Producers

Beyond volume targets, the EPA introduced structural changes. The agency removed renewable electricity from the RFS program, narrowing its focus to liquid and gaseous fuels. It also introduced measures to limit the role of foreign feedstocks in the future.

Starting in 2028, imported biofuels will receive a lower compliance value compared to domestic products. In addition, incentives such as the 45Z tax credit are designed to favor U.S.-based production.

The broader goal is clear. The policy aims to strengthen energy independence, support farmers, and reduce reliance on foreign oil. Estimates suggest that these measures could cut oil imports by hundreds of thousands of barrels per day over the next two years.

At the same time, the EPA expects significant economic benefits. The rule could generate billions of dollars for rural economies and create thousands of new jobs across agriculture and manufacturing sectors.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently published updated data on the country’s biofuel production capacity, shown below.

us biofuel
Source: EIA

Demand Surges but Supply Faces Pressure

While policy is driving demand higher, supply conditions remain tight. The U.S. biofuel market is projected to exceed $41 billion in 2026, supported by transportation demand and decarbonization goals.

us biofuel market size

Ethanol continues to dominate the market, especially through E10 fuel blends. However, advanced biofuels such as renewable diesel and SAF are growing faster due to stronger policy incentives and rising interest in low-carbon fuels.

Despite this growth, feedstock availability is becoming a major concern. Domestic sources such as soybean oil, used cooking oil, and tallow are under pressure. Prices have risen sharply due to limited supply and increased competition from both the fuel and food industries.

At the same time, import restrictions have reduced access to cheaper global feedstocks. Tariffs and lower compliance values for foreign inputs are shifting the market toward domestic sourcing. While this supports local producers, it also reduces flexibility during supply shortages.

New processing capacity is helping to ease some of the pressure. Agribusiness companies are expanding oilseed crushing operations, and renewable diesel plants are increasing output. However, these efforts may take time to fully balance supply and demand.

War-Driven Oil Shock Makes Biofuels More Valuable

The U.S. biofuel market is gaining momentum as rising oil prices and global conflict reshape energy choices. The ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran war has disrupted key oil infrastructure and shipping lanes near the Strait of Hormuz, sending crude prices sharply higher.

As conventional fuels become more expensive, alternatives like ethanol, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) are increasingly attractive, driving demand across the sector. This surge has pushed feedstock costs to multi-year highs, with soybean oil, used cooking oil, and animal fats climbing steadily.

At the same time, renewable fuel credits, or RINs, have reached levels not seen in years, boosting margins for biofuel producers but raising compliance costs for refiners. Reports from Argus Media show that U.S. renewable diesel feedstocks hit their highest prices in over two years this month, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to war-driven disruptions.

While industry groups argue that strong domestic production stabilizes supply and reduces reliance on imported oil, refiners warn that these rising costs could eventually reach consumers, especially in regions with less competition. The combination of strong demand, tight supply, and geopolitical risk is redefining U.S. biofuel market dynamics.

biofuel prices
Source: Argus Media

Opportunities for Farmers, Challenges for Refiners

The current landscape is creating both opportunities and challenges.

Biofuel producers and farmers are seeing strong benefits. Higher demand for crops like corn and soybeans is supporting agricultural incomes. Investment in renewable fuel projects is also increasing, driven by policy certainty and market growth.

However, refiners and fuel distributors are facing tighter margins. The cost of compliance, combined with volatile feedstock prices, is making operations more difficult. Smaller players may struggle to compete in this environment.

Consumers could also feel the impact through higher fuel prices, especially if cost pressures continue. To manage these risks, many companies are turning to hedging strategies. Storage, long-term contracts, and flexible sourcing are becoming essential tools in navigating market uncertainty.

Supporting this announcement, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins, said:

“Today’s announcement is truly historic for our nation’s farmers and energy producers. These numbers represent the highest levels of biofuels ever required to be blended into our fuel supply. With President Trump and Administrator Zeldin’s leadership, these historically high volumes are expected to create a $3 to $4 billion dollar increase in net farm income. The Renewable Fuel Standard Set 2 Rule will create a $31 billion dollar value for American corn and soybean oil for biofuel production in 2026, which is $2 billion more than in 2025. Our farmers are stepping up to grow American energy dominance.”

Strong Growth, But Uncertain Path

Looking ahead, the U.S. biofuel market is expected to grow steadily, with projections showing annual growth of up to 10% through the next decade. Strong EPA mandates and supportive policies will continue to drive demand.

However, the path forward is far from stable.

The mismatch between long-term policy goals and short-term geopolitical disruptions will remain a key challenge. Events like the ongoing Middle East conflict can quickly shift market dynamics, creating sudden price swings and supply risks.

The rest of 2026 will depend on several key factors, including potential EPA waivers, movements in RIN markets, and developments in global energy supply. In the end, the success of U.S. biofuels will depend on balance. Policy support provides a strong foundation, but flexibility will be critical in managing real-world challenges.

Despite the industry growing fast, the question remains—can it handle the pressure of both policy ambition and global uncertainty at the same time?

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History Repeating Itself: Why Middle East Conflict at the Pump Should Be a Wake-Up Call for North America

Disseminated on behalf of Surge Battery Metals.

Every time instability erupts in the Middle East, North Americans feel it where it hurts most—at the gas pump. It happened in 1979, when the Iranian Revolution sent shockwaves through global energy markets. Oil supplies tightened. Prices surged, and inflation followed.  Entire economies slowed under the pressure. 

For millions of households, the crisis’s impact was personal. It showed up in longer lines at gas stations and rising costs across daily life.

Nearly five decades later, the pattern is repeating.

Renewed tensions across key oil-producing regions are once again tightening global supply. Prices are rising. Consumers are feeling the impact. And once again, events unfolding thousands of miles away are shaping the cost of energy at home.

This pattern suggests a persistent structural vulnerability in North America’s exposure to global oil‑supply shocks. The region still depends heavily on global oil markets. That means supply disruptions, no matter where they occur, can quickly ripple through the system. 

The result is a familiar cycle: geopolitical instability leads to supply concerns, which drive up prices, which then feed directly into the cost of living.

A Cycle Consumers Know All Too Well

When prices spike, households adjust. Commuters rethink travel. Businesses absorb higher costs or pass them on. Inflation pressures build. The impact spreads far beyond the energy sector.

With average gasoline prices currently around $4 per gallon in the US ($5.50 in California), or roughly $1.05 US per liter ($1.45 in California), the connection between global events and local fuel prices is no longer theoretical – it is a lived experience. This is why energy security is increasingly framed as both a policy concern and a kitchen‑table issue. 

The events of 1979 were a warning. Today’s rising prices are another. The difference is that North America now has more options than it did back then.

Electric vehicles, battery storage, and renewable power systems are no longer future concepts. They are already part of the energy mix. And for those who have made the shift, the experience is very different, and the transition is already complete.

Instead of watching fuel prices climb, they are plugging in.

Graham Harris, Chairman of Surge Battery Metals, has spoken openly about this shift in practical terms. While rising oil prices create uncertainty at the pump, he charges his electric vehicle at home. 

The contrast between gasoline dependency and electrification is becoming more visible.

When oil prices rise, gasoline costs follow. But electricity prices tend to be more stable, especially when supported by domestic generation and renewable sources. That difference is simple but powerful. It changes how people experience energy volatility.

One system is exposed to global shocks. The other is increasingly tied to domestic infrastructure. This contrast highlights how the energy transition is reshaping exposure to global price shocks.

Some analysts increasingly frame the energy transition not only as a climate imperative but also as a strategy to reduce exposure to external risk. It relates to questions of control over where energy comes from, how it is produced, and how stable it is over time.

And at the center of that transition is one critical material: lithium.

Lithium: The Foundation of Energy Independence

Lithium is the core component of modern battery technology. It powers electric vehicles, supports grid-scale energy storage, and plays a growing role in advanced defense systems.

As electrification expands, demand for lithium is rising across multiple sectors.

But here is the challenge: much of today’s lithium supply still comes from outside the United States. This creates a familiar dynamic.

Just as oil dependency has long exposed North America to geopolitical risk, reliance on foreign lithium supply introduces a new layer of vulnerability. The commodity is different, but the structure is similar.

top US lithium import 2024 by country

The United States imported the majority of its lithium from Chile and Argentina in 2024. Together, they accounted for roughly 98% of the total supply. Smaller volumes were sourced from the UK, France, and China. 

That is why domestic production is becoming a central focus of energy and industrial policy.

In March 2025, Donald Trump signed an executive order titled Immediate Measures to Increase American Mineral Production.” The directive called for faster permitting, expanded development, and reduced reliance on foreign supply chains for critical minerals.

The message of the order was clear: building domestic capacity is now a strategic priority.

A Domestic Resource Takes Shape in Nevada

Within this broader shift, projects like Surge Battery Metals’ (TSX-V: NILI | OTCQX: NILIF) Nevada North Lithium Project (NNLP) are gaining attention.

NNLP hosts a measured and indicated resource of 11.24 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) at an average grade of 3,010 ppm lithium, based on company disclosures. This makes it the highest-grade lithium clay resource identified in the United States to date.

A 2025 Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) outlines the project’s scale:

  • After-tax NPV (8%): US$9.21 billion
  • Internal Rate of Return (IRR): 22.8%
  • Mine life: 42 years
  • Average annual production: ~86,300 tonnes LCE
  • Employment: ~2,000 construction jobs and ~350 long-term operational roles

Surge-NNLP-Preliminary-Economic-Assessment-PEA

These figures indicate potential in terms of scale, longevity, and the ability to contribute to domestic supply if the project moves forward. At full production, NNLP has the potential to rank among the larger lithium-producing assets globally, based on third-party analysis.

Recent drilling results announced by Surge Battery Metals have further strengthened NNLP’s profile as a standout asset. In February 2026, step-out drilling found a 31-meter intercept with 4,196 ppm lithium from surface. This is much higher than the project’s average of 3,010 ppm Li. It also extends high-grade mineralization nearly 640 meters beyond the current resource boundary.

Infill drilling showed a steady, thick, high-grade core. It included intercepts like 116 meters at 3,752 ppm Li and 32 meters at 4,521 ppm Li. These results support future resource expansion. They also highlight the project’s scale, quality, and technical readiness as it prepares for a Pre-Feasibility Study.

Beyond the project itself, it reflects a broader policy and industry shift toward building more domestically anchored energy systems.

From Oil Dependency to Mineral Security

The connection between oil and lithium is not always obvious at first glance. Oil fuels internal combustion engines, while lithium supports batteries and energy‑storage systems, with distinct technologies and supply chains.

But the underlying issue is the same. Dependence on external sources creates exposure to external risk.

In the case of oil, that risk has played out repeatedly over decades. Supply disruptions, price shocks, and geopolitical tensions have all shaped the market.

With lithium, the industry is earlier in its development. But the stakes are rising quickly.

Global demand for lithium grew about 30 % in 2024, driven mainly by batteries for electric vehicles and energy storage, according to IEA data. Demand in 2025 continued at high rates, and under current policies, lithium demand is projected to grow fivefold by 2040 compared with today. 

lithium demand and supply 2024 iea

At the same time, supply growth is struggling to keep pace with demand forecasts. These trends show that ensuring a stable, secure supply is becoming just as important as expanding production.

That is where domestic projects come in, such as Surge Battery Metals’ NNLP. 

They may not eliminate global market dynamics, but they can reduce exposure to them. They can provide a buffer against volatility. And they can support a more stable, self-reliant energy system.

A Turning Point – or Another Warning?

While history does not repeat in the same way, similar patterns can be observed.

The oil shocks of the 1970s revealed a vulnerability that shaped energy policy for decades. Today’s market signals are pointing to a similar challenge—this time at the intersection of oil dependency and critical mineral supply.

The difference is that the range of policy and technological options available today is broader. Electrification is already underway. Battery technology is advancing. Domestic resource development is gaining policy support. The pieces are in place.

Data from the International Energy Agency’s Global EV Outlook 2025 shows that global battery demand reached a historic milestone of 1 terawatt-hour (TWh) in 2024. This surge was mainly due to the growth of electric vehicles (EVs). 

EV battery demand by region 2024 iea

By 2030, demand is expected to more than triple, exceeding 3 TWh under current policies. This reflects not only rising EV adoption but also expanding stationary storage demand. Both of which rely on critical minerals like lithium.

Electric vehicles continue to displace traditional oil use as well. The same IEA analysis shows that by 2030, EVs will replace over 5 million barrels of oil daily. This is about the size of a major country’s transport sector, highlighting how electrification is changing energy markets.

What remains uncertain is the pace at which these changes will occur.

Will rising fuel prices once again fade as markets stabilize? Or will they serve as a catalyst for deeper structural shifts?

That question matters not just for policymakers or investors, but for everyday consumers.

Because at the end of the day, energy transitions are not measured in policy papers. They are measured in daily decisions—how people power their homes, fuel their vehicles, and respond to rising costs.


DISCLAIMER 

New Era Publishing Inc. and/or CarbonCredits.com (“We” or “Us”) are not securities dealers or brokers, investment advisers, or financial advisers, and you should not rely on the information herein as investment advice. Surge Battery Metals Inc. (“Company”) made a one-time payment of $75,000 to provide marketing services for a term of three months. None of the owners, members, directors, or employees of New Era Publishing Inc. and/or CarbonCredits.com currently hold, or have any beneficial ownership in, any shares, stocks, or options of the companies mentioned.

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It is our policy that information contained in this profile was provided by the company, extracted from SEDAR+ and SEC filings, company websites, and other publicly available sources. We believe the sources and information are accurate and reliable but we cannot guarantee them.

CAUTIONARY STATEMENT AND FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION

Certain statements contained in this news release may constitute “forward-looking information” within the meaning of applicable securities laws. Forward-looking information generally can be identified by words such as “anticipate,” “expect,” “estimate,” “forecast,” “plan,” and similar expressions suggesting future outcomes or events. Forward-looking information is based on current expectations of management; however, it is subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated.

These factors include, without limitation, statements relating to the Company’s exploration and development plans, the potential of its mineral projects, financing activities, regulatory approvals, market conditions, and future objectives. Forward-looking information involves numerous risks and uncertainties and actual results might differ materially from results suggested in any forward-looking information. These risks and uncertainties include, among other things, market volatility, the state of financial markets for the Company’s securities, fluctuations in commodity prices, operational challenges, and changes in business plans.

Forward-looking information is based on several key expectations and assumptions, including, without limitation, that the Company will continue with its stated business objectives and will be able to raise additional capital as required. Although management of the Company has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially, there may be other factors that cause results not to be as anticipated, estimated, or intended.

There can be no assurance that such forward-looking information will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking information. Additional information about risks and uncertainties is contained in the Company’s management’s discussion and analysis and annual information form for the year ended December 31, 2025, copies of which are available on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca.

The forward-looking information contained herein is expressly qualified in its entirety by this cautionary statement. Forward-looking information reflects management’s current beliefs and is based on information currently available to the Company. The forward-looking information is made as of the date of this news release, and the Company assumes no obligation to update or revise such information to reflect new events or circumstances except as may be required by applicable law.

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