Geothermal energy is moving into the spotlight. Fervo Energy, a U.S. geothermal developer backed by major investors including Google, is preparing to raise up to $1.33 billion in one of the biggest clean energy initial public offerings (IPOs) of 2026. The company is targeting a valuation of as much as $6.5 billion as demand for reliable carbon-free electricity rises rapidly.

The planned public offering comes at a time when electricity markets are changing quickly. Artificial intelligence (AI), data centers, electric vehicles, and industrial electrification are driving power demand up in the U.S. That shift is creating new interest in energy sources that can operate around the clock.

Unlike solar and wind power, geothermal systems can generate electricity 24 hours a day, regardless of weather conditions. Reliability is becoming more valuable. Utilities and tech companies are looking for stable, clean power.

Fervo believes geothermal could become a major part of the next-generation energy system. Its SEC filing states:

“Fervo is working to build a different type of energy company—one that treats each geothermal power facility as a repeatable product, not a one-off, complicated project. We intend to deliver power in standardized, 50-megawatt ORC units, relentlessly reducing complexity with every well drilled and every turbine installed. With few locational constraints on our subsurface operations, we can develop sites to multi-gigawatt sites, harnessing learning curves to drive continuous improvement and make geothermal cheaper than it has ever been.”

Geothermal Is Gaining Momentum Again

Geothermal energy has been around for decades. It usually needs special geological conditions, like volcanic areas or natural steam reservoirs. Fervo is trying to change that.

The company uses enhanced geothermal systems, also known as EGS. The technology uses horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing from the oil and gas industry. This helps access underground heat in many more places. This could dramatically expand geothermal development across the United States and other countries.

Fervo also uses fiber optic sensing and AI-enhanced monitoring tools to improve underground drilling precision and efficiency. The company says these technologies can help lower costs while making geothermal systems easier to scale.

Its flagship project is Cape Station in Utah. Fervo expects it to become the world’s largest next-generation geothermal development once completed. The project is scheduled to begin delivering electricity later this year.

According to company filings, Cape Station could eventually reach 500 megawatts of capacity. That would be enough electricity to power hundreds of thousands of homes. The company also revealed it has over 3.6 gigawatts of geothermal projects. These are in construction, development, or advanced planning stages.

AI Data Centers Are Reshaping Electricity Demand

Investors are increasingly focused on geothermal energy. This is largely due to the fast growth of artificial intelligence infrastructure.

AI data centers require enormous amounts of electricity. Unlike some industrial facilities, they also need highly reliable power every hour of the day. This is creating strong demand for “firm” clean electricity that can operate continuously.

Solar and wind remain important growth industries, but they depend on weather conditions. Geothermal systems offer stable baseload electricity like natural gas and nuclear power, without producing direct carbon emissions.

Rising electricity demand from AI data centers, electric vehicles, and domestic manufacturing growth is helping support investor interest in Fervo’s IPO.

Technology companies are already moving into the sector. Google previously partnered with Fervo on “Project Red” in Nevada and later joined the company’s major funding round in 2025.

Industry analysts say AI could become one of the largest new electricity demand drivers in decades. The International Energy Agency recently warned that electricity use by data centers might spike by 2030. This surge is linked to the growing adoption of AI worldwide.

That trend is changing how energy markets think about reliability.

Wall Street Bets Big on a $1.3 Billion Climate-Tech IPO

Fervo’s IPO is also part of a wider investment surge into advanced energy technologies. In December 2025, the company secured $462 million in private funding. Investors included B Capital, Breakthrough Energy Ventures, Devon Energy, and Google.

• SEE MORE: U.S. Geothermal Boom: Fervo Energy Leads with $462M Funding for Cape Station Project

That funding round brought Fervo’s total equity and debt financing to roughly $1.5 billion since its founding in 2017. Now the company is preparing for an even larger capital raise through public markets under the FRVO ticker.

According to its SEC filing, Fervo plans to offer 55.6 million shares priced between $21 and $24 per share. If shares price is at the top of the range, the company could raise about $1.33 billion.

Several major institutional investors have already expressed interest in purchasing up to $350 million worth of IPO shares. These include Norges Bank Investment Management, Wellington Management, Capital Research, and Atlas Point Energy Infrastructure Fund.

Wall Street is closely watching the offering.

Recent climate technology IPOs struggled after the clean energy market slowdown of 2022 and 2023. But stronger electricity demand and renewed infrastructure investment are helping improve investor confidence again.

Axios described Fervo’s IPO as an important test for the broader climate-tech market.

Geothermal Moves From Niche to Mainstream Energy Play

The geothermal market is small compared to solar and wind energy. However, many forecasts expect strong growth ahead.

According to the International Energy Agency, geothermal currently provides less than 1% of global electricity generation. However, advanced geothermal systems could expand the technology far beyond traditional geothermal regions.

The U.S. Department of Energy estimates that enhanced geothermal systems could produce over 90 gigawatts of electricity in the U.S. under the right conditions. That would represent a major increase from today’s geothermal capacity.

Several trends are supporting that growth:

• Rising electricity demand, 
• AI data center expansion,
• Industrial electrification,
• Energy security concerns,
• Decarbonization targets, and
• Need for stable renewable power. 

Governments are also increasing support. The United States included geothermal incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act. Europe and parts of Asia are also exploring geothermal development as part of broader energy security strategies.

Why Investors Are Racing Into Next-Gen Geothermal

Fervo says its technology can help reduce emissions while supporting grid reliability. That matters because many countries and corporations now have net-zero targets.

The United States aims to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Major technology firms including Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta are also pursuing aggressive climate goals. Many companies are finding that hitting those targets needs more than just occasional renewable energy.

Reliable low-carbon power is becoming increasingly important. Fervo’s geothermal systems provide continuous, carbon-free electricity. This helps reduce reliance on fossil fuels for backup power.

At the same time, geothermal projects usually need less land than big solar or wind farms. Supporters say this could make geothermal an attractive complement to other renewable energy systems.

The Energy Transition Enters a Reliability-First Era

Fervo’s planned IPO reflects a broader shift happening across energy markets. For years, most clean energy investments focused heavily on solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicles.

Now investors are increasingly looking at technologies that can support round-the-clock electricity demand. That includes geothermal, nuclear power, battery storage, and upgraded electricity grids.

That is helping reshape clean energy investment priorities. Fervo’s IPO arrives at a time when markets are beginning to place a higher value on reliability, not just renewable generation capacity.

If successful, the offering could become one of the most important geothermal financing milestones in years. It may also help determine whether geothermal energy can finally move from a niche technology into a larger part of the global clean energy system.

• READ MORE: Fervo Energy’s $421M Breakthrough and The Rise of Geothermal Power for Clean Electricity

The post Fervo Energy’s $1.3 Billion IPO Signals a Geothermal Breakthrough appeared first on Carbon Credits.

Disseminated on behalf of Surge Battery Metals

The lithium market is shifting again. After a period of oversupply and price weakness, new disruptions are tightening supply in real time.

Two developments are driving this change: regulatory action in China and export restrictions in Zimbabwe. Together, they are bringing the lithium deficit narrative back into focus and reshaping how supply risk is assessed.

A New Supply Shock Emerges

In early 2026, Zimbabwe, Africa’s top lithium producer, suspended exports of lithium concentrates and other unprocessed minerals. The government cited malpractices and revenue leakages as the reason for the halt.

Now, exports are set to resume under tighter controls. According to Reuters, Zimbabwe will introduce export quotas and require mining companies to commit to local processing investments.

Key measures include:

• Export quotas assigned to individual producers
• A continued 10% export tax on lithium concentrates
• A requirement to build local processing capacity before January 2027, when a full ban on concentrate exports is expected

Zimbabwe is a major player in the global supply chain. In 2025, the country sent 1.128 million metric tons of lithium-bearing spodumene concentrate to China. This made up about 15% of China’s imports.

Any disruption at that scale has an immediate global impact.

China Tightening Adds Pressure

At the same time, China is tightening its control over domestic lithium production. Industry reports from S&P Global Commodity Insights and Fastmarkets show that permit reviews and stricter environmental rules have impacted some operations. This is especially true for smaller or higher-cost mines.

China dominates global lithium processing and refining. When domestic supply slows or becomes less predictable, it affects the entire supply chain. This includes chemical conversion capacity, which is critical for producing battery-grade lithium.

Together, these developments are creating a short-term tightening effect in the market. Supply is becoming less flexible just as demand continues to grow.

Small Disruptions, Big Price Impacts

Lithium markets are highly sensitive to supply changes. Even small disruptions can affect pricing and availability.

The current situation highlights several key dynamics:

• Supply is still concentrated in a few regions
• Policy decisions can quickly impact global availability
• Processing capacity is as important as raw material supply

Zimbabwe’s push for local processing reflects a broader trend. Resource-rich countries are seeking more value from their minerals instead of exporting raw materials. While this may support long-term development, it can reduce short-term supply to global markets.

At the same time, China’s role as the dominant processor means that changes within its domestic system ripple outward. This combination of upstream and downstream pressure is what makes the current situation notable.

From Glut to Squeeze in Just One Year

Just a year ago, lithium prices were under pressure. The market saw oversupply, driven by strong production growth and slower-than-expected EV demand in some regions.

Lithium prices fell to $8,259 per tonne in June 2025, before reaching $25,269 per tonne on April 27, 2026.

Now, supply-side disruptions are shifting sentiment again. While the market is not yet in a severe deficit, the balance is tightening.

This shift reinforces a key point: lithium markets can move swiftly. Oversupply can quickly lead to tighter conditions, especially with policy and geopolitics at play.

Lithium Becomes a Strategic Battleground

The current supply story is not just about mining. It is about geopolitics and control over critical materials.

Zimbabwe’s lithium sector is heavily influenced by Chinese companies, including major operators that dominate production and processing investments. 

One of the biggest players is Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt, which operates the Arcadia lithium project and runs both mining and processing facilities. Sinomine Resource Group is another major operator, managing the Bikita lithium mine and expanding processing capacity. 

Chengxin Lithium Group is also active in mining and processing, while Yahua (Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group) is building lithium sulfate plants in the country. Even Tsingshan Holding Group has invested in Zimbabwe’s lithium projects. Together, these companies dominate the industry and shape how the country’s lithium resources are developed.

This creates a concentrated supply chain, where decisions in one country can affect availability in another. For governments and industry players, this raises concerns about the security of supply.

As a result, there is an increasing focus on diversification and domestic sourcing. Countries want to rely less on single regions or supply chains. This is especially true for materials needed for energy transition and tech infrastructure.

• SEE MORE: GM Bets $625 Million on Nevada Lithium Clay: What It Signals for the Next U.S. Project

U.S. Domestic Projects Gain Strategic Edge

These global disruptions are highlighting the value of stable, domestic lithium resources. Projects located in secure jurisdictions are becoming more important as supply risks increase across regions like Africa and parts of Asia.

In the United States, Nevada stands out as a key lithium hub. It offers scale, infrastructure, and a well-established mining framework. Within this context, Surge Battery Metals’ (TSX-V: NILI | OTCQX: NILIF) Nevada North Lithium Project (NNLP) provides a clear example of how domestic supply can align with evolving market needs.

NNLP is not just defined by location, but by scale and economics. The 2025 Preliminary Economic Assessment shows a 42-year mine life, with estimated average annual production at around 86,300 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). It is expected to produce around 3.6 million tonnes of battery-grade LCE over its lifetime. This positions it as one of the longer-lasting lithium supply assets in North America.

The project is also supported by a large resource base. Current estimates point to more than 11 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (inferred resource), with mineralization extending across a broad, near-surface footprint. This near-surface shape allows for a regular open-pit mining method. This can make development easier and boost efficiency in operations over time.

Grade is another key factor. NNLP reports an average lithium grade of around 3,010 ppm, with some zones exceeding 4,000 ppm. This positions the project among the higher-grade clay lithium resources in the United States. Higher grades can lead to better recovery efficiency. They also lower processing intensity per tonne, which matters in a cost-sensitive commodity market.

From an economic perspective, the project shows strong baseline metrics. Surge Battery Metals’ PEA shows an after-tax net present value of about $9.2 billion. It also indicates an internal rate of return of 22.8%, based on a lithium price assumption of $24,000 per tonne. The estimated operating cost is around $5,243 per tonne LCE, supporting its positioning as a potential low-cost producer.

Additional factors reinforcing NNLP’s relevance in the market:

• Large-scale footprint, with mineralization extending over more than 4 km of strike length
• Open-pit design, targeting shallow, high-grade zones in early production phases
• Two-phase development plan, allowing production to scale over time
• Domestic processing pathway, supporting U.S. supply chain goals

Together, these characteristics position NNLP as a long-duration, scalable lithium source. It aligns with the needs of various demand drivers, including EVs, grid storage, and industrial applications.

In a market increasingly shaped by geopolitical risk, projects like NNLP represent more than just supply. They offer jurisdictional stability, long-term visibility, and alignment with domestic sourcing strategies.

These attributes are key to evaluating lithium assets as supply disruptions continue to emerge globally.

The New Reality: Volatility, Policy, and Power

The lithium market is entering a new phase. Demand is expanding, driven by EVs, grid storage, and data center infrastructure. At the same time, supply is becoming more complex and more sensitive to policy decisions.

The recent actions in China and Zimbabwe show how quickly the balance can shift. They also highlight the importance of diversification, transparency, and long-term planning in lithium supply chains.

For investors and industry participants, the takeaway is clear: The lithium deficit narrative is returning, not just because of demand growth, but because of real-world supply constraints.

In this environment, projects that offer scale, longevity, and jurisdictional stability are likely to play a larger role in meeting future demand.

• READ MORE: Surge Battery Metals Strengthens Nevada North With High-Grade Expansion and Infill Success

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Certain statements contained in this news release may constitute “forward-looking information” within the meaning of applicable securities laws. Forward-looking information generally can be identified by words such as “anticipate,” “expect,” “estimate,” “forecast,” “plan,” and similar expressions suggesting future outcomes or events. Forward-looking information is based on current expectations of management; however, it is subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated.

These factors include, without limitation, statements relating to the Company’s exploration and development plans, the potential of its mineral projects, financing activities, regulatory approvals, market conditions, and future objectives. Forward-looking information involves numerous risks and uncertainties and actual results might differ materially from results suggested in any forward-looking information. These risks and uncertainties include, among other things, market volatility, the state of financial markets for the Company’s securities, fluctuations in commodity prices, operational challenges, and changes in business plans.

Forward-looking information is based on several key expectations and assumptions, including, without limitation, that the Company will continue with its stated business objectives and will be able to raise additional capital as required. Although management of the Company has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially, there may be other factors that cause results not to be as anticipated, estimated, or intended.

There can be no assurance that such forward-looking information will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking information. Additional information about risks and uncertainties is contained in the Company’s management’s discussion and analysis and annual information form for the year ended December 31, 2025, copies of which are available on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca.

The forward-looking information contained herein is expressly qualified in its entirety by this cautionary statement. Forward-looking information reflects management’s current beliefs and is based on information currently available to the Company. The forward-looking information is made as of the date of this news release, and the Company assumes no obligation to update or revise such information to reflect new events or circumstances except as may be required by applicable law.

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The post Lithium Deficit Is Back: How China and Zimbabwe Supply Cuts Are Reshaping the Market appeared first on Carbon Credits.

The global race to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is entering a new phase. Octopus Energy Generation announced a big $500 million plan. They will fund reforestation and afforestation projects across the U.S. in partnership with climate tech company Living Carbon. The projects aim to restore degraded land while removing millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

The deal is one of the largest disclosed institutional investments in nature-based carbon removal projects in recent years. It also shows that there is growing confidence in carbon removal markets, which might play a big role in global net-zero strategies.

Octopus Energy Generation’s fund management will invest $500 million in Living Carbon’s reforestation platform. On top of that, Octopus will invest nearly $13 million directly into Living Carbon’s business operations.

Zoisa North-Bond, CEO at Octopus, said:

“This is a landmark deal for us in the US and a huge step in our mission to invest in solutions that drive the planet toward a cleaner future.”

The companies say the funding could help remove up to 50 million tonnes of carbon dioxide over the next 40 years. The New York City Mayor’s Office of Climate & Environmental Justice says this is about the same as the city’s yearly greenhouse gas emissions.

Turning Abandoned Land Into Carbon Assets

The project aims to restore damaged land. This land would stay harmful to the environment or unproductive for the economy if not addressed.

Living Carbon specializes in rehabilitating former mining sites and degraded farmland across the United States. These areas are replanted with native trees, which help absorb carbon dioxide. They also boost biodiversity, improve soil quality, and enhance water systems.

The opportunity is enormous.

American Forests, a nonprofit conservation group, reports that the U.S. has about 130 million acres of degraded land. This land has potential for reforestation. That area is larger than the entire state of California. Many of these lands are located in former industrial and mining regions that have struggled economically for decades.

Reforestation projects not only create local jobs but also generate carbon credits. Each credit represents one tonne of removed or avoided carbon dioxide. Corporations buy these credits to offset emissions.

Living Carbon uses satellite imagery, climate models, and ecological analysis. This helps them find land with the best long-term carbon removal potential. Maddie Hall, Founder and CEO at Living Carbon, remarked:

“Our partnership with Octopus takes us from early-stage implementation to delivering long-term carbon removal at scale with institutional capital. This is a sign that this market is maturing into real project finance as corporate commitments to net-zero increase.”

Notably, the company is building projects near growing data center areas. Energy demand and emissions are rising quickly in these places because of the growth in artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Carbon Removal Markets Hit Wall Street Scale

The Octopus-Living Carbon partnership arrives as demand for carbon removal continues to grow globally.

Companies feel more pressure to achieve net-zero goals. They also need to cut emissions that are hard to eliminate directly. As a result, many corporations are turning to carbon removal projects to help offset residual emissions.

According to carbon market intelligence firm Sylvera, companies committed nearly $14 billion toward future carbon removal purchases in 2025 alone. 

At the same time, the number of companies with validated net-zero targets rose 61% globally last year, according to the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi). Large technology companies are among the biggest buyers.

Living Carbon has also signed carbon offtake agreements with big firms like Microsoft, Google, Meta, and McKinsey & Company. The Symbiosis Coalition, featuring Google and Meta, has contracted over 131,000 tonnes of carbon removal from the company for the next decade. This reflects a broader trend across the technology sector.

Artificial intelligence systems and data centers are sharply increasing electricity demand worldwide. As emissions increase with digital growth, many tech companies are investing in carbon removal. This helps them balance future emissions.

Nature-Based Removal Solutions Gain Investor Support

The market for nature-based carbon removal is growing fast. Debates about carbon credit quality and verification standards are still ongoing.

Nature-based solutions include reforestation, afforestation, wetland restoration, grassland recovery, and soil carbon management. These approaches remove carbon dioxide naturally through ecosystems rather than through engineered industrial systems.

McKinsey & Company predicts that the global voluntary carbon market could hit $50 billion to $250 billion each year by 2050. This depends on climate policies and how much companies get involved. BloombergNEF and Ecosystem Marketplace both predict strong long-term growth in carbon credit demand.

However, the sector has also faced criticism over transparency and carbon accounting quality. Recent studies have raised doubts about whether some forest carbon credits truly deliver the claimed climate benefits.

That scrutiny is pushing investors toward projects with stronger scientific verification and long-term monitoring systems. This is where Living Carbon’s focus on “high-quality” carbon removal becomes crucial. Their projects aim for measurable environmental benefits and long-term land restoration.

Analysts believe that big financing deals, like the Octopus deal, can help the sector grow. This shift could take it from early-stage testing to developing mature infrastructure projects.

Octopus Energy Expands Beyond Wind and Solar

The investment also highlights how clean energy companies are expanding beyond traditional wind and solar infrastructure.

Octopus Energy has rapidly become one of Europe’s largest renewable energy investors. It is the UK’s largest supplier of domestic electricity and gas. The company manages around 4.9 gigawatts of renewable energy assets in 21 countries. This includes wind and solar farms worth about £7 billion ($9 billion).

According to the company, those assets generate enough electricity to power around 3.2 million homes annually. Now Octopus is increasingly investing in broader climate technologies.

This year, the company said it plans to invest up to $2 billion in U.S. clean energy and climate tech by 2030. It will mainly focus on California’s clean-tech sector. That strategy includes carbon removal, heat batteries, energy storage, and nature restoration projects.

The company has boosted its investment in Cultivo, which offers nature-based solutions, too. This supports grassland restoration projects across the United States.

Carbon Removal Is Becoming a Core Net-Zero Tool

Global climate models suggest that just reducing emissions might not be enough to reach long-term climate goals. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says the world needs to remove carbon dioxide. This is important to keep global warming below 1.5°C or 2°C. Rapid cuts in emissions are also necessary.

The International Energy Agency says it is crucial to greatly increase global carbon removal by 2050. This is critical for reaching net-zero goals. Thus, corporate buyers are locking in long-term supply agreements now before future carbon credit shortages hit.

Similarly, analysis by McKinsey shows that the world needs between $6 trillion and $16 trillion of investment in carbon removals by 2050 to hit net zero.

The surge in carbon removal purchases is helping transform the market from a niche climate strategy into a rapidly growing investment category. And the Octopus-Living Carbon partnership reflects that shift.

Instead of treating carbon removal as a small offset activity, institutional investors are beginning to finance it at an infrastructure scale. That could reshape how companies approach climate mitigation over the next decade.

For now, the deal also highlights a broader reality: restoring forests and degraded ecosystems is no longer viewed only as conservation work. It is increasingly becoming part of the global clean energy and net-zero economy.

• READ MORE: BTG Pactual Closes Record $1.24B Reforestation Fund as Forest Carbon Markets Enter the Big Leagues

The post $500M Carbon Bet: Octopus Energy Backs Massive U.S. Forest Carbon Removal Projects appeared first on Carbon Credits.

A massive tungsten project in Kazakhstan is emerging as one of the most important critical minerals stories of 2026. This week, Skyline Builders Group Holding Ltd and Cove Kaz Capital Group LLC announced a merger agreement that will create a new Nasdaq-listed company called Kaz Resources Inc.

The new company will focus on developing strategic mineral assets in Kazakhstan, including tungsten, rare earths, lithium, tantalum, niobium, and beryllium.

At the center of the deal is the Severniy Katpar tungsten project. The mine is estimated to contain around 1.4 million tonnes of tungsten resources. That is an extraordinary figure considering China’s total tungsten reserves are estimated at roughly 2.4 million tonnes.

In simple terms, one mine in Kazakhstan could equal more than half of China’s entire known tungsten reserve base. That is why the transaction is attracting global attention. It is not just another mining deal. It’s a geopolitical move linked to supply chain security, defense manufacturing, and the fight over critical minerals.

Tungsten Is Becoming One of the World’s Most Strategic Metals

Tungsten is not as widely discussed as lithium or copper, but it is one of the most important industrial metals in the world.

The metal is extremely hard and highly resistant to heat. It is widely used in aerospace systems, military equipment, semiconductors, industrial machinery, drilling tools, electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing, and advanced electronics.

The U.S. classifies tungsten as a critical mineral. Modern industries and defense systems depend on it a lot.

Demand is now rising sharply. At the same time, supply is becoming tighter. That combination is pushing tungsten prices to record highs.

Tungsten prices jumped in early 2026. Benchmark ammonium paratungstate (APT) prices hit record levels in April 2026, up from relatively stable levels in 2025, rising from $400/MTU to over $3,000/MTU. Buyers rushed to secure the supply.  

China’s Export Controls Spark Global Supply Panic

China currently dominates the global tungsten industry. China is estimated to control about 75% to 85% of the world’s tungsten production. It also holds a larger portion of the processing capacity.

That concentration has become a growing concern for Western governments. The market is now realizing how vulnerable the global tungsten supply chain really is.

One of the biggest drivers behind the recent tungsten rally is China’s tightening control over exports. Industry reports say that Chinese export limits cut global tungsten availability in 2026. Some estimates suggest export volumes fell by around 40%, while international buyers struggled to source alternative supplies fast enough.

This has created what many analysts now describe as a structural supply shortage.

Fastmarkets reported that Chinese mining quotas and lower ore grades were tightening the market. Rising industrial demand made things worse, and then export restrictions added to the strain.

Reuters also reported that inventories remain extremely tight across global markets. The result has been explosive price growth, as shown above. 

Several industry trackers reported tungsten prices more than doubled between 2025 and 2026. Some tungsten chemical products reportedly rose more than 200% in only a few months.

Analysts increasingly believe the market may remain undersupplied for years.

A market forecast predicts that the global tungsten supply-demand gap will surpass 17% from 2026 to 2028. Another report says global tungsten shortages might last until 2027. This is due to new mines outside China taking years to develop.

That backdrop makes Kazakhstan’s giant tungsten project strategically important.

The Kazakhstan Mine Could Become the West’s Next Critical Minerals Hub

According to company disclosures, the Severniy Katpar and Upper Kairakty projects could eventually produce around 12,000 metric tonnes of tungsten annually. That would represent roughly 15% of current global tungsten production.

Very few mining projects outside China are large enough to shift global supply balances. This one potentially can.

The United States appears highly interested in supporting the development financially.

The Export-Import Bank of the United States has reportedly issued a Letter of Interest for up to $900 million in financing support. Meanwhile, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation is interested in possibly offering another $700 million. Combined support could total as much as $1.6 billion.

That level of potential backing highlights how seriously Washington views critical mineral security.

The project also reflects a wider global trend. Governments are shifting mineral supply chains from China to allied countries. They call this “friend-shoring.” Kazakhstan is becoming an important player in that shift.

• RELATED: DOE Launches $500M Funding Drive to Strengthen U.S. Battery Supply Chains and Critical Minerals Processing

Beyond Oil: Kazakhstan’s New Strategic Resource Boom

The country in Central Asia already holds large deposits of uranium, copper, rare earths, and battery minerals. Now it is positioning itself as a future hub for strategic metals needed by Western economies.

Kaz Resources controls several mineral concessions in Kazakhstan. These concessions include rare earth elements, lithium, tantalum, cesium, niobium, and tin. The company also owns a major stake in the Akbulak Rare Earth Project.

This diversification matters because many industries are no longer focused on securing only one critical mineral. Governments and manufacturers increasingly want stable access to entire supply chains.

That includes tungsten. The mineral is very important because it is hard to replace in many industrial and military uses.

Tungsten-based materials are crucial for many products. They are key in defense systems, armor-piercing ammo, jet engines, semiconductor tools, and heavy-duty cutting equipment.

As defense spending rises globally, demand is expected to increase even further.

Why Tungsten Is Becoming the Next Lithium

Multiple industry forecasts now predict strong long-term growth for tungsten demand. The global tungsten market was worth about $5.43 billion in 2025, and might reach around $9.19 billion by 2034, according to Fortune Business Insights.

Separately, Research Nester predicts the market may surpass $11 billion by 2035. This growth will be fueled by semiconductors, electrification, industrial manufacturing, and clean energy technologies.

Analysts say several major trends are supporting long-term tungsten demand growth, including:

• Rising aerospace production, 
• Increased global defense spending,
• Semiconductor expansion,
• EV manufacturing growth,
• Renewable energy infrastructure, 
• Advanced industrial automation, and
• AI-related hardware manufacturing. 

Tungsten is increasingly being viewed as a “strategic technology metal” rather than just a traditional industrial commodity. That shift is changing investor interest as well.

Mining and resource investors now see tungsten like they once saw lithium and rare earths. It’s a key material for future industrial growth.

Trump Family Ties Add Political Heat to Strategic Metals Deal

The story got more attention when reports said Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump invested in Skyline Builders through related investment groups. The involvement of the Trump family adds another political layer to an already strategic transaction.

Critical minerals have become one of the biggest economic and national security priorities in U.S. policy discussions.

Both Democratic and Republican administrations pushed for more mineral independence from China. This includes both domestic resources and allies. Beijing’s export restrictions on key materials have sped up that effort.

The New Global Resource War Has Already Begun

The Kazakhstan tungsten project represents more than a mining investment. It shows how critical minerals are becoming central to global economic strategy, industrial security, and geopolitics.

The world is entering a period where access to metals may become just as important as access to oil and gas once was. And tungsten is rapidly moving to the center of that conversation.

If the Severniy Katpar project reaches full production, it could become one of the most important non-Chinese tungsten supply sources in the world.

For the United States and its allies, that could mark a major step toward reducing dependence on China for one of the world’s most strategically important metals.

• READ MORE: US and Australia Boost Critical Minerals Support with $3.5B Alliance, Challenging China’s Grip

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