Tesla (TSLA Stock) Leads 2,500 Electric Class 8 Trucks. Microsoft, PepsiCo Back U.S. Freight Decarbonization

The U.S. trucking industry is taking a major step toward electrification as shippers move from pilot projects to large-scale fleet commitments.

Smart Freight Centre and Catalyst Mobility, formerly CALSTART, have helped organize a 2,500-truck battery-electric Class 8 order through their Zero-Emission Truck Shipper-Carrier Alliance Leading Electrification (ZET SCALE) program. The organizations say the deal is the largest electric Class 8 truck order in the U.S. and could nearly double the country’s existing electric Class 8 fleet.

The press release says Tesla has been selected as the primary original equipment manufacturer (OEM) for the initial procurement following a competitive request-for-proposals process. Kenworth, Volvo and RIDE will remain secondary options for carriers whose operating requirements call for different truck configurations.

The development comes at a critical point for U.S. freight. Trucks move enormous volumes of goods across the country, but the sector remains heavily dependent on diesel.

Why Heavy Trucks Matter for U.S. Emissions

Transportation is the largest source of direct greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. economy. Within transportation, medium- and heavy-duty trucks accounted for 23% of transportation-sector greenhouse gas emissions in 2022, according to the EPA.

transport emissions
Source: EPA

The emissions challenge is particularly significant for long-haul trucking. The U.S. Department of Energy estimates that long-haul freight trucks account for only about 7% of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles but around 38% of their greenhouse gas emissions, reflecting their high mileage, heavy loads, and energy consumption.

The broader medium- and heavy-duty vehicle fleet is also still dominated by fossil fuels. A DOE analysis found that about 92% of these vehicles ran on diesel and 7% on gasoline, with natural gas and propane accounting for roughly 1%.

That makes Class 8 trucks an important target for decarbonization.

Electric Truck Sales Are Growing, But From a Small Base

The U.S. electric truck market is expanding, although heavy-duty adoption remains relatively small compared with conventional trucking.

  • The International Energy Agency said global electric truck sales surpassed 400,000 units in 2025, with electric heavy freight truck sales nearly tripling to about 230,000 units.

U.S. electric truck sales increased 25% to roughly 17,000 units in 2025. However, more than 95% of those U.S. sales were medium freight trucks, partly because Rivian’s electric delivery vans are included in the category.

  • For the heavier Class 8 segment, the numbers are much smaller. Reporting based on the International Council on Clean Transportation’s 2026 market monitor put U.S. zero-emission heavy truck sales at about 875 units in 2025, representing only around 0.3% of the market.
Truck sales
Source: ICCT Report

The ZET SCALE procurement therefore stands out because its initial order is several times larger than annual U.S. zero-emission heavy-truck sales recorded in 2025.

Tesla (TSLA) Semi Gets a Major Commercial Opportunity

Tesla’s Semi is at the center of the new procurement. As per reports, Tesla has officially started high-volume production of its Semi electric truck at a new dedicated factory in Nevada. The company says the facility can produce up to 50,000 electric trucks a year.

The company currently lists the Semi with an estimated 500-mile range, energy consumption of about 1.7 kWh per mile, and gross combination weight of up to 82,000 pounds for the long-range version. The company says its Megacharger system can restore up to 60% of range in 30 minutes, with charging capability of up to 1.2 MW.

tesla semi
Source: Tesla

Tesla has also said Semi deliveries will start in 2026. However, the company has faced delays in bringing the truck to high-volume production. In July, Tesla said it was working to increase battery production to support production of the Semi at scale.

The ZET SCALE order allows Tesla to move from limited deployments toward a much larger commercial fleet base.

It also comes as Tesla prepares to expand the Semi beyond the U.S. Reuters reported in September that the company is targeting the European heavy-duty market, where several established truck manufacturers already offer battery-electric models.

Microsoft and PepsiCo Help Aggregate Demand

The bigger story behind the order, however, is not simply Tesla.

ZET SCALE is designed to solve one of the biggest challenges facing electric trucking: fragmented demand.

Individual fleets often hesitate to place large electric-truck orders because of higher upfront costs, uncertain residual values, charging requirements, and questions about how vehicles will perform across different routes.

The alliance pools demand from multiple shippers and carriers. Founding participants include Microsoft and PepsiCo, among others. By combining their requirements, ZET SCALE created a larger purchasing pool that encouraged truck manufacturers to compete for the business.

The model could also help reduce costs beyond the truck itself.

The key advantages include:

  • Bulk purchasing: Larger orders can improve pricing and strengthen the business case for electric trucks.
  • Shared infrastructure: Deployments are concentrated around freight hubs where charging assets can achieve higher utilization.
  • Financing support: ZET Financial plans to use a fair-market-value leasing structure designed to reduce residual-value risk for carriers.
  • Operational data: Fleet-specific analysis can compare electricity, diesel, maintenance, and financing costs.
  • Multiple OEM options: Tesla leads the first procurement, while Kenworth, Volvo and RIDE provide alternatives for different operating needs.

Ten Freight Hubs Form the First Deployment Wave

The initial deployments will focus on major freight corridors rather than spreading trucks thinly across the country.

ZET SCALE has identified 10 primary freight regions, including Southern California and Los Angeles, Northern and Central California, Seattle-Tacoma, Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Chicago, Atlanta, and the Northern New Jersey-New York region.

This approach is important because electric trucking depends on more than vehicle availability. Charging infrastructure, route length, electricity prices, truck utilization, and local operating conditions all influence the economics.

Concentrating trucks around established freight hubs can allow fleets to share charging infrastructure and maximize vehicle utilization.

From 2,500 Trucks to 10,000

The 2,500-truck order is being positioned as the first phase rather than the final target.

ZET SCALE aims to expand the model to 10,000 or more electric trucks, while recruiting additional shippers and carriers and expanding into new regions.

That ambition comes as U.S. policymakers and industry groups continue to look for ways to reduce emissions from heavy-duty transportation. DOE’s SuperTruck 3 initiative, for example, is focused on electric and hydrogen fuel-cell technologies and targets a 75% lifecycle reduction in medium- and heavy-duty truck greenhouse gas emissions.

The challenge is no longer simply developing an electric Class 8 truck. The industry must build the commercial ecosystem around it.

ZET SCALE’s approach brings together shippers, carriers, manufacturers, financiers, and charging infrastructure around one procurement strategy. If the model works, it could offer a path for freight companies to electrify without each fleet having to solve the same cost and infrastructure problems independently.

For Tesla, meanwhile, the order could provide an important bridge from limited Semi deployments to a much larger commercial market.

And for U.S. freight decarbonization, the significance may extend beyond the 2,500 trucks themselves. The bigger test is whether aggregated demand can turn electric Class 8 trucks from an emerging technology into a scalable fleet solution.

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Microsoft and Relae Put CDR Delivery Risk in Focus at Climate Week NYC 2026

Climate Week NYC 2026 has put a growing issue in the carbon dioxide removal (CDR) market under the spotlight: Can carbon removal projects actually deliver the tonnes they promise?

As CDR moves from early-stage development toward larger commercial projects, buyers and investors are looking beyond the quality of carbon removal credits. They also want to know whether projects can deliver the contracted volume on time.

This is where delivery risk comes in.

Relae, formerly Carbon Direct, and Microsoft are addressing the issue through the sixth edition of their Criteria for High-Quality Carbon Dioxide Removal. Released during Climate Week, the 2026 framework adds a dedicated approach for assessing delivery risk alongside carbon removal quality for the first time.

The change reflects an important shift in the CDR market. A project can use a credible removal method and meet quality requirements, but that does not automatically mean it will deliver the promised tonnes.

What Is Delivery Risk in Carbon Removal?

Delivery risk is the possibility that a CDR project will fail to produce the amount of carbon removal it has promised or fail to deliver it within the agreed timeframe.

The reasons can extend well beyond the underlying technology. A project could face construction problems, higher-than-expected costs, financing delays, supplier failures, weak project management or regulatory obstacles.

The new Relae-Microsoft framework therefore looks at delivery as a broader project-development challenge.

The TECOP Framework

Its delivery risk assessment covers five areas within a new framework called TECOP. It covers Technical, Economic, Commercial, Organizational, and Political risks.

These factors examine whether a project has the technology, financing, contracts, management capacity, and external conditions needed to move from development to actual carbon removal.

Importantly, the framework distinguishes between open-system and closed-system projects, recognizing that different CDR approaches face different execution risks.

A facility-based project, for example, may depend heavily on construction, equipment, and storage infrastructure, while an open-system project can face risks linked to land, feedstocks, field conditions, and decentralized operations.

This makes delivery risk broader than simply asking whether a technology works.

Why Delivery Risk Matters in the Current CDR Market

The timing of the new framework is significant because the CDR market is entering a more execution-focused phase.

The market expanded rapidly in 2025. CDR offtake volumes reached about 64 million metric tons, more than double the 30 million tonnes recorded in 2024, according to a 2025 market review. Durable CDR accounted for 29 million tonnes of that volume, up from 8 million tonnes a year earlier.

However, contracted tonnes are not the same as delivered tonnes.

  • In the first quarter of 2026, durable CDR buyers contracted about 2.3 million tonnes, the strongest first quarter on record. Yet only about 145,000 tonnes were delivered during the quarter.

That gap illustrates why delivery has become a bigger issue for buyers. Developers may announce large future projects and sign long-term offtake agreements years before facilities or removal systems reach full-scale operations.

CDR

As commitments become larger, the consequences of delays also increase.

For buyers, delivery risk can affect when credits become available, how they plan their climate strategies and whether contracted tonnes arrive in the quantities expected. For developers, failure to meet commitments can affect financing, customer relationships and future contracts.

DURABLE cdr

Microsoft Shows Both the Scale and Concentration of CDR Demand

Microsoft’s role in the market makes the delivery question particularly important.

The company has contracted more than 78 million metric tons of CDR from more than 60 projects across 10 removal approaches, according to its January 2026 portfolio update. Microsoft said it was increasingly targeting near- to medium-term deliveries while maintaining longer-term purchases linked to its carbon-negative goal beginning in 2030.

This procurement strategy has helped provide developers with long-term demand signals. However, it has also contributed to a highly concentrated market.

  • CDR.fyi estimated in April 2026 that Microsoft accounted for 78.5% of disclosed durable CDR tonnes contracted, equal to more than 36.4 million tonnes.

microsoft cdr

Diversification of the CDR Market

The market has continued to diversify outside Microsoft. Sylvera reported that disclosed non-Microsoft offtake volume increased 73% year over year in the first half of 2026 to 12 million tonnes, even as total disclosed offtake volumes fell sharply.

That creates an important backdrop for the new delivery framework. CDR developers are not only competing for buyers. They are also moving from contracts and project announcements toward actual construction, operations, verification and delivery.

Relae and Microsoft Have Tracked CDR Quality Since 2021

Relae and Microsoft first introduced the CDR quality criteria in 2021.

The criteria have been updated annually as scientific understanding, project experience and the voluntary carbon market have evolved. The 2026 edition draws on lessons from diligence conducted across hundreds of real-world projects and adds delivery risk as a distinct assessment area.

Relae says it conducted 170 additional diligence reports since the 2025 criteria. Its assessment has now covered more than 900 projects, with fewer than 10% meeting its threshold for high quality. More than 60 subject matter experts contributed to the 2026 update.

The purpose is not to replace the existing quality framework. Instead, delivery risk adds another layer to project assessment.

The basic questions for buyers now become:

  • Is the removal scientifically credible?
  • Does the project meet quality requirements?
  • Can the developer actually deliver the contracted tonnes?
  • What could prevent delivery, and how resilient is the project to those risks?

Six Principles Still Define High-Quality CDR

The delivery framework sits alongside the existing quality requirements.

The 2026 criteria continue to assess six core areas across CDR pathways:

  • Social harms, benefits and environmental justice
  • Environmental harms and benefits
  • Additionality and baselines
  • Measurement, monitoring, reporting and verification
  • Durability
  • Leakage

These principles focus on whether the carbon removal is credible and whether the project avoids significant environmental and social harms.

Delivery risk addresses a different part of the equation: whether the project can execute its plan.

This distinction matters because a project can satisfy quality requirements while still facing financing, construction, supply-chain or regulatory problems.

Direct Counterparties Are Part of the Delivery Equation

The updated criteria also place greater attention on direct counterparties.

These are organizations that developers depend on to generate and deliver carbon removal. They can include feedstock suppliers, landowners, transportation companies, storage providers, local implementation partners, and major offtakers.

For many CDR projects, these relationships are essential to the project’s operating model.

A biochar developer, for example, may depend on a consistent supply of biomass. A geological storage project may rely on transportation and injection infrastructure. Nature-based projects can depend on landowners and local implementation partners.

The 2026 criteria therefore call for greater due diligence on these relationships and consideration of whether counterparties could introduce social or environmental risks.

This expands project assessment beyond the company selling the carbon removal.

CDR Pathways Face More Detailed Scrutiny

The updated criteria also increase the level of scrutiny for individual CDR pathways.

  • Enhanced rock weathering (ERW) faces stronger requirements around measuring actual carbon removal, managing potentially toxic elements, and protecting farmers. Projects are expected to use physical field measurements rather than relying solely on modeled results.
  • Afforestation, reforestation and revegetation (ARR) projects face updated requirements around dynamic baselines and statistically matched controls. These changes are intended to improve confidence that measured removals represent genuine additional climate benefits rather than changes that would have occurred without the project.

The framework therefore continues to evolve alongside the technologies it evaluates.

CDR FYI

The Next Phase: From CDR Commitments to CDR Delivery

The biggest change in the market may be the growing importance of the gap between contracted tonnes and delivered tonnes.

CDR.fyi’s 2026 data shows that buyers outside Microsoft and Frontier accounted for only a minority of contracted durable CDR volumes but a much larger share of deliveries and retirements to date. This suggests that market activity looks different when measured by actual delivered tonnes rather than future commitments.

The trend also helps explain why delivery risk is becoming more important as the sector matures.

Large CDR contracts can provide developers with revenue visibility and help unlock project financing. But those contracts also create expectations around timing and volume.

The market now needs to demonstrate that contracted tonnes can move through the entire chain: project development, financing, construction, operation, measurement, verification and delivery.

Relae and Microsoft’s framework does not guarantee that a project will meet those milestones. Instead, it gives developers, buyers and investors a structured way to identify potential weaknesses before they become delivery failures.

For the CDR industry, that represents a shift from asking whether carbon removal can work in principle to asking whether projects can execute at commercial scale.

The discussion at Climate Week NYC reflects this next phase. Carbon removal is no longer only about developing better technologies or securing large offtake agreements. It is increasingly about building projects that can deliver measurable, durable, and high-quality tonnes at the scale and time promised.

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Mombak Targets $150M for Amazon Reforestation as Salesforce Joins Carbon Removal Buyers

Mombak Targets $150M for Amazon Reforestation as Salesforce Joins Carbon Removal Buyers

Brazilian carbon removal company Mombak has reached the first close of its second reforestation fund, targeting $150 million to finance restoration projects in the Amazon. At the same time, Mombak has signed a multi-year carbon removal purchase agreement with Salesforce, adding another major corporate buyer to its growing customer base.

The amount raised in the first close was not disclosed. The new fund also has access to a R$200 million credit line, worth about $38.9 million, from Brazil’s Climate Fund, operated by state development bank BNDES.

Mombak has already attracted major buyers including Google, Microsoft and McLaren Racing. The new Salesforce agreement is significant. It brings in another big corporate buyer and comes as demand for better carbon removals grows.

The company is starting its second major funding cycle. It used its first $120 million fund to support restoration in the Brazilian Amazon.

Mombak Opens Its Second $150M Amazon Fund

Mombak’s Amazon Reforestation Fund II will invest in projects that restore degraded land in the Brazilian Amazon. The company did not disclose the size of the first close or the investors involved. Its target is to raise up to $150 million.

The fund also has access to a R$200 million BNDES credit line. The funding comes through Brazil’s Climate Fund, a government climate-finance program managed through BNDES’s lending operations. The fund supports projects that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and help Brazil adapt to climate change.

Mombak could access nearly $189 million in potential capital from the equity fundraising target and credit facility. However, they haven’t raised the full $150 million target yet, and the credit line is debt, not equity.

The new funding comes as Brazil tries to expand forest restoration and attract more private capital into nature-based climate projects.

BNDES announced in June that R$834 million in new Climate Fund projects will help restore over 65,600 hectares. This includes planting more than 108 million native trees and creating over 27,000 green jobs.

Mombak is therefore part of a much wider push to use public finance to bring more private money into Brazilian forest restoration. Gabriel Haddad Silva, CEO of Mombak, noted:

“The market spent years asking whether high-integrity reforestation could actually deliver. We answered that with our first deliveries ahead of schedule. Now, we are scaling our operations, with renewed support from investors, customers and BNDES.”

The First Fund Planted Nearly 15 Million Native Trees

Mombak’s first reforestation fund raised $120 million from investors including an AXA fund, CPP Investments and Bain Capital. The funding supported restoration projects across 15 Amazon farms, where Mombak has planted nearly 15 million native trees.

The company has also begun delivering actual carbon removal credits.

In August, Mombak announced its first issuance of more than 21,000 tonnes of CO2 removals from native, biodiverse reforestation projects in the Amazon. The credits were certified by Isometric using a Core Carbon Principles-approved protocol. They were delivered over two years early.

Early delivery is notable because delivery delays have been a major problem in the voluntary carbon market. It also gives Mombak a track record to show potential investors and buyers before it scales its second fund.

Mombak expects a much larger issuance of about 80,000 tonnes of reforestation carbon removal credits by the end of 2026. These figures are issued or expected credits, not the total amount of carbon that the company’s new fund could eventually generate.

Salesforce Expands Its Carbon Removal Buying

The Salesforce agreement adds another major technology company to Mombak’s buyer base. The company has buyers like Google, Microsoft, and McLaren Racing. Earlier deliveries also went to McKinsey & Company, Bain & Company, Climeworks, Commons, and Union Square Ventures.

The financial value and volume of the new Salesforce agreement were not disclosed.

Salesforce is already an active buyer of carbon removals. Its FY2026 Stakeholder Impact Report says the company contracted 41,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide removal across six different pathways during the year. It also maintained a commitment to compensate for 100% of its annual emissions with high-quality avoidance and removal credits.

Salesforce climate and nature
Source: Salesforce

Salesforce’s climate strategy also includes direct emissions cuts. The company saw a 66% drop in Scope 1 and 2 market-based emissions compared to FY2019. It also achieved a 67% reduction in Scope 3 market-based emissions intensity.

That distinction matters. Carbon removals are being used alongside emissions reductions, not as a substitute for them.

Nature-Based Removals Are Scaling Fast 

Mombak’s expansion comes as corporate demand for carbon removals is growing, although the market remains concentrated.

CDR.fyi reported that durable carbon removal purchases excluding Microsoft and Frontier-linked buyers grew at a 151% compound annual rate from 2021 to 2025. Deliveries grew at a 131% annual rate over the same period.

Nature-based removals remain a much larger market than many engineered carbon removal technologies.

CDR.fyi‘s 2025 market survey found that about 11 million tonnes of nature-based removal credits were retired in 2024, compared with roughly 200,000 tonnes of durable engineered CDR. It also found that buyers expected nature-based removals to remain the larger category in the near term.

indexed-cdr-purchase-volume-growth-projections
Source: CDR.fyi

The broader carbon market is also attracting more investment. MSCI estimates that capital in the global carbon credit market hit $22 billion in 2025. This is up 72% from 2024 and over five times the level in 2021. The research points to growing use of long-term financing and offtake agreements to secure future carbon supply.

That model is especially important for reforestation. Projects need large amounts of capital before trees grow and begin generating verified removal credits.

BNDES Sees Demand Broadening Beyond Big Tech

Mombak’s new fund also comes as the buyer base for carbon removals could become more diverse. Technology companies have been major early buyers because of their growing emissions from data centers and AI infrastructure. But BNDES officials said that demand is also increasing from oil, mining, and steel companies.

Mombak’s CEO, Gabriel Silva, said better reforestation methods and higher productivity are lowering costs. This could make carbon removals appealing to more buyers. This could be important for Brazil.

The country has large areas of degraded land that could potentially support restoration, while its emerging carbon market is creating new ways to finance climate projects.

But voluntary reforestation credits remain different from credits issued under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. Mombak’s current business is focused on voluntary carbon removal purchases. Its credits should not automatically be treated as internationally transferred mitigation outcomes.

Can Mombak Turn Fresh Capital Into Carbon Removals?

Mombak’s new fund combines three important parts of the carbon market: long-term investment, corporate offtake agreements and physical restoration.

The first fund showed that Mombak could attract institutional capital, plant millions of native trees and deliver its first credits earlier than planned. The second fund aims to take that model to a larger scale.

The challenge now is turning financial commitments into measurable and lasting carbon removals. Forest projects need strong land rights, long-term monitoring, credible carbon measurement and safeguards against reversal from fire, drought and other risks.

The market also needs more buyers. The Salesforce agreement helps on that front by adding another major corporate customer to the sector. Mombak’s wider buyer base suggests that demand is beginning to spread beyond a small group of technology companies.

For Brazil, the opportunity is larger still. BNDES is using public financing to help attract private capital into forest restoration, while companies such as Mombak are building commercial models around carbon removal.

The key test will be whether Mombak and other developers can turn that capital into verified, durable carbon removals at scale while delivering wider benefits for Brazil’s forests and communities.

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SGE, GE Vernova, Hitachi, and Samsung C&T Target Europe With 4.2 GW BWRX-300 SMR Fleet

Europe’s small modular reactor (SMR) market is nearing commercial deployment. Governments and energy firms seek reliable low-carbon power to boost renewable energy.

SGE, GE Vernova, Hitachi, and Samsung C&T signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to explore market opportunities for GE Vernova Hitachi’s BWRX-300 SMR in Central and Eastern Europe and the UK.

The agreement was signed on September 22 in New York during the Atlantic Council Nuclear Energy Policy Summit, coinciding with the United Nations General Assembly. The U.S. Department of State recognizes this partnership as part of wider U.S., Japanese, and South Korean cooperation on SMR deployment.

The four companies will evaluate potential markets, develop deployment strategies, and pursue commercial opportunities. This partnership combines reactor technology, nuclear engineering, construction, and European project development.

Europe Nuclear Generation Capacity

Nuclear power already plays a significant role in Europe’s electricity supply. France accounts for the largest share of nuclear capacity and generation.

  • The World Nuclear Association (WNA) reports 96 GWe of operating nuclear capacity across the European Union, with 98 reactors operating in 12 EU countries.
  • In 2025, nuclear plants generated about 650 TWh, making up 23.2% of EU electricity production, according to Eurostat and WNA. Renewables led at 47.2%.
nuclear capacity europe
Source: WNA

Beyond the EU, several European countries also operate nuclear reactors. The United Kingdom, Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Switzerland add significant nuclear capacity and generation. Their 2025 generation totaled about 323 TWh, while their operating capacity was about 55 GWe.

The European Commission estimates that around €241 billion will be needed for EU nuclear energy through 2050. This includes extending the life of existing reactors and building new large-scale facilities. Additional investment will be required for SMRs, advanced modular reactors, and fusion.

This creates a growing market for smaller nuclear units, which can be deployed in fleets rather than single large reactors.

The global SMR market is attracting more investment, although estimates vary widely. A July 2026 report from Heimdall Insights valued the market at $6.5 billion in 2025, predicting $10.7 billion by 2030. Global Market Insights predicts a $3.6 billion market in 2025, with growth to $15.6 billion by 2035.

Global smr

However, installed capacity is much smaller than these market estimates suggest. Mordor Intelligence estimates global SMR capacity at 312.5 MW in 2025, rising to 912.5 MW by 2030.

  • Now focusing on Europe, the EU launched its first dedicated SMR strategy in March 2026 and aims for the first SMRs to operate in the early 2030s. Its Nuclear Illustrative Programme predicts EU SMR capacity could reach between 17 GW and 53 GW by 2050.

SGE Builds a BWRX-300 Pipeline

SGE is a Warsaw-based European SMR developer founded in 2019. It is a co-investor in projects using the BWRX-300 SMR, developed by GE Vernova Hitachi Nuclear Energy. The company is now developing the BWRX-300 as a standardized reactor platform for European markets.

In Poland, Decisions in Principle have been issued for 26 BWRX-300 reactors. SGE is focusing on three sites for the first 14 units, with the first Polish unit expected to be operational by 2032.

SGE and GE Vernova Hitachi are also creating a Polish reference design for the reactor, aiming for a repeatable model for future projects.

The UK is another key target.

Rafał Kasprów, CEO of SGE, noted:

“Europe is entering a new strategic era in which energy independence, security of supply and industrial resilience are becoming core elements of national and regional security.

This agreement brings together state-of-the-art American nuclear technology from GE Vernova Hitachi, the industrial and technological capabilities of Hitachi and Samsung, and SGE’s European BWRX-300 development platform. Our objective is to establish a standardized, cross-border BWRX-300 fleet across the European Union and the United Kingdom, creating a new layer of secure, reliable and low-carbon generation capacity.

By combining American technology, Japanese and Korean industrial strength, and European development capabilities and supply chains, we are building the foundations of a long-term nuclear strategic program designed to strengthen Europe’s energy security, strategic autonomy and industrial competitiveness.”

Shaping the UK SMR Fleet

In July, SGE announced plans for 14 BWRX-300 reactors across three UK sites, totaling about 4.2 GW of capacity. This fleet could supply around 11% of the UK’s electricity demand.

SGE’s proposal is now in the Preliminary Regulatory Assessment Deep Dive led by Great British Energy – Nuclear. The first site will host six reactors, with commercial operation aimed for 2034.

The UK is exploring several SMR options. In September, Reuters reported that EDF plans to develop 10 small nuclear plants in the EU by 2035 using its NUWARD technology, with projects in France, Italy, Poland, Belgium, and Finland.

This competition means technology developers must show more than reactor performance. Licensing, financing, construction timelines, supply chains, and the ability to replicate projects will all be critical.

The Key Advantages of BWRX-300 

The BWRX-300 is a 300 MW-class boiling water reactor from GE Vernova Hitachi Nuclear Energy. It features a simplified design based on established boiling water reactor technology, supporting standardized deployment.

Key characteristics include:

  • 300 MW-class output: A single unit provides a smaller block of firm electricity than traditional gigawatt-scale reactors.
  • Standardized design: Projects can use common engineering, manufacturing, and construction processes.
  • Modular construction: The design supports more factory-made components and repeatable construction.
  • Existing reactor experience: The BWRX-300 builds on decades of boiling water reactor operations.
  • Fleet deployment: Developers can add multiple units or deploy standardized units across locations.

Additionally, the BWRX-300 is gaining insights from a project in Canada.

Ontario Power Generation received a license in April 2025 to build one BWRX-300 at the Darlington New Nuclear Project. In March 2026, the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission confirmed that the first regulatory hold point was cleared. OPG also applied for a 20-year operating license in March.

This Canadian project provides a reference as European developers navigate their own regulatory processes.

Four Companies, One European Fleet Strategy

The new partnership assigns distinct roles to each company.

GE Vernova Hitachi Nuclear Energy manages the BWRX-300 design and technology. Hitachi offers nuclear and industrial capabilities, while Samsung C&T provides engineering, procurement, and construction expertise. SGE leads European project development and market expansion.

This structure reflects a broader shift in the SMR industry. Developers are increasingly focusing on fleets rather than single reactors. Repeating designs could minimize engineering work, strengthen supply chains, and create economies of scale.

Jung Wook Kim, Executive Vice President and Head of Global Business Unit and Global Operation, Samsung C&T, expressed himself by saying:

“Samsung C&T is honored to open a new chapter in Europe’s SMR business together with GE Vernova, Hitachi and SGE. Building on Samsung C&T’s proven EPC capabilities, we will fully leverage the synergy created by this four-way partnership to strengthen Europe’s energy security and contribute to the realization of carbon neutrality.”

The SMR Race Is Heating Up

The BWRX-300 enters a European market with several competing reactor designs.

The European Commission’s SMR strategy supports fleet-based deployment, standardized industrial processes, stronger supply chains, and closer cooperation among regulators. It also aims for the first European SMRs to start deploying in the early 2030s.

For developers, the opportunity is vast, but execution remains a challenge.

The new MoU does not guarantee the construction of the proposed BWRX-300 fleet. Each project still needs regulatory approvals, financing, site development, and commercial agreements.

However, the partnership combines reactor technology, nuclear expertise, construction capability, and European project development at a time when the region is preparing for renewed nuclear investment.

If successful, BWRX-300 fleets could boost demand for reactors, engineering, construction, nuclear components, fuel services, and long-term operations in Europe.

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Gevo Targets $60M Profit as Carbon Credits and 45Z Boost Renewable Fuel Economics

Gevo Targets $60M Profit as Carbon Credits and 45Z Boost Renewable Fuel Economics

Gevo is increasingly relying on carbon credits and U.S. clean-fuel incentives to improve the economics of its renewable fuels business. Chief Executive Officer Paul Bloom said at a Water Tower Research conference on September 23 that Gevo now expects more than $60 million in 2026 non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA, up from its earlier $30 million target.

The company says carbon monetization, the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit, stronger operations, and new Canadian clean fuel opportunities are behind the higher outlook. The forecast is important because it shows how carbon value can add another revenue stream to low-carbon fuel production.

However, the $60 million figure is a company forecast, not reported earnings. Gevo must still deliver the expected tax-credit sales, carbon revenues, and operating improvements.

Carbon Value Is Becoming a Second Revenue Engine

Gevo’s strategy is built around getting value from both its fuel and the carbon benefits linked to that fuel. Its main asset is Gevo North Dakota, a low-carbon ethanol plant in Richardton, North Dakota, with carbon capture and storage (CCS) on site.

The facility produces about 67 million gallons of low-carbon ethanol a year and currently captures and stores roughly 180,000 metric tons of CO2 annually. The site has an operating Class VI well and enough permitted storage capacity to potentially reach 1 million tonnes of CO2 per year.

The captured biogenic CO2 can generate carbon removal certificates, while the plant’s low carbon intensity can also increase the value of fuel-related incentives.

Gevo calls this approach “carbon arbitrage.” The company can seek value from different carbon markets and choose where the carbon attribute has the highest value, although a particular carbon benefit cannot be sold twice.

Chief Executive Officer Paul Bloom said:

“For every ton of fuel we produce about a ton of carbon dioxide. We capture that carbon dioxide and sequester it in a deep well under our North Dakota facility.”

Bloom said the combined value of carbon and incentives can add roughly $1.50 per gallon beyond the underlying fuel commodity value. This is a company estimate and can vary with market prices and policy rules. 

45Z Tax Credits Power Gevo’s 2026 Outlook

The Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit is one of the biggest drivers of Gevo’s improved forecast. The company expects to monetize more than $70 million of 45Z tax credits during 2026, compared with $52 million in 2025.

Gevo also said it had already closed $20 million of 45Z credit sales after the second quarter and was targeting another $50 million by year-end. 

The 45Z credit is a U.S. tax incentive for qualifying domestic clean transportation fuels. The credit is available for fuel produced after 2024 and sold through December 31, 2029, following changes made by federal legislation in 2025. 

45Z tax credit
Source: Cenet Capital

For fuel produced after 2025, eligible feedstocks must be produced or grown in the United States, Mexico, or Canada. The value of the credit depends on the fuel’s emissions performance and other requirements. 

That makes carbon intensity extremely important for producers like Gevo. Lower lifecycle emissions can increase the amount of tax credit attached to qualifying fuel.

In September 2026, the IRS also issued Notice 2026-53, providing the 2026 emissions-rate table and additional guidance on 45Z, including treatment of regenerative agricultural practices. 

Gevo Turns Tax Credits Into Cash

Gevo has demonstrated that 45Z credits can become actual cash rather than simply a future policy benefit. In 2025, Gevo North Dakota sold $52 million of 45Z tax credits. That included a $30 million sale in November, added to $22 million sold earlier in the year. 

The structure is important for Gevo’s business model. The company can sell tax credits to third-party buyers, turning the incentive into cash rather than waiting to use the full value against its own tax liability.

Gevo’s low carbon intensity helps support that value.

The company says Gevo North Dakota has a carbon-intensity score in the low 20s grams of CO2e per megajoule under the GREET model variation proposed for 45Z. British Columbia has previously assigned the plant a score of 19 gCO2e/MJ. 

Its on-site CCS is a major reason for the low score. This creates a direct connection between carbon management and fuel economics.

Canada Adds Another Carbon Revenue Channel

Gevo’s stronger 2026 outlook also includes a new pathway under Canada’s Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR). Canada’s CFR operates a credit market in which each compliance credit represents one tonne of lifecycle CO2e emissions reduction. Credits can be generated by supplying lower-carbon fuels or by reducing the lifecycle carbon intensity of fuels. 

In the second quarter, Gevo received approval for a new pathway covering its low-carbon ethanol with CCS.

The approval allows Gevo to recognize carbon value from qualifying ethanol previously delivered into the Canadian market. The company expected sales under the new pathway to begin appearing in its third-quarter 2026 results. 

This gives Gevo another compliance market alongside U.S. incentives and voluntary carbon removal sales. That diversification is important because carbon prices and fuel markets can change.

North Dakota Expansion Could Scale Fuel and Carbon Revenue

Gevo is also increasing the amount of fuel and carbon value its North Dakota facility can generate. A debottlenecking project is expected to raise low-carbon ethanol output to about 75 million gallons per year, a 10% to 15% increase in ethanol, coproduct, CCS and related incentive volumes starting in 2027.

Gevo said the project remained on track in September and that its new CO2 degassing system had been commissioned ahead of schedule. 

The company plans a big expansion. This could double North Dakota’s ethanol production to 150 million gallons per year. It will include CCS and aims to start in 2028.

Gevo CCS
Source: Gevo

More production could mean more low-carbon fuel, more captured biogenic CO2 and more associated incentives. Gevo’s North Dakota site therefore sits at the center of its near-term growth strategy.

Carbon Removal Demand Is Rising But Delivery Lags

The wider carbon removal market is growing, but it remains relatively young. CDR.fyi currently tracks 50.5 million tonnes of durable carbon removal contracted globally, compared with only about 1.7 million tonnes delivered. Its current weighted-average price across publicly disclosed purchases is around $196 per tonne. 

The large gap between contracted and delivered tonnes shows why operational projects can have an advantage.

Gevo’s North Dakota facility is already operating and has generated hundreds of thousands of certified removal credits. That gives the company an existing supply base while many newer CDR projects are still being developed.

gevo carbon credits sales
Source: CDR.Fyi

However, Gevo’s future carbon revenue will still depend on credit prices, buyer demand, and the amount of CO2 that can be captured and certified.

Can Carbon Management Change the Economics of Renewable Fuel?

Gevo’s updated more-than-$60 million 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook reflects a business model that goes beyond selling ethanol. The company produced $47 million in revenue in the second quarter of 2026 and generated $11 million of adjusted EBITDA. For the first six months, revenue reached about $89.4 million, while adjusted EBITDA was $19.6 million.

The full-year target is therefore a significant step up from first-half results.

Gevo has said the stronger outlook is supported by 45Z monetization, the Canada CFR pathway, low-carbon fuel sales, operational improvements and its carbon business. The broader market lesson is that carbon value can materially change the economics of renewable fuel production.

For Gevo, ethanol provides the core commodity product. CCS creates carbon removal value. 45Z creates a federal clean fuel incentive. Canada’s CFR creates another compliance market. The challenge now is turning those different revenue streams into durable cash flow.

If Gevo can continue producing low-carbon fuel, monetizing eligible incentives and delivering certified carbon removals, its North Dakota facility could serve as a model for how fuel production and carbon management can operate as one integrated business.

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ADM Enters the VCM With 800,000 Tons of Carbon Removal Credits Certified by Puro.earth

ADM is moving deeper into the carbon removal market, planning to sell carbon removal credits generated by its large-scale carbon capture operation at its corn processing complex in Columbus, Nebraska.

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Climate Week NYC: Renewable Supply Gaps Grow as States Push Carbon Removal

Climate Week NYC: Renewable Supply Gaps Grow as States Push Carbon Removal

Renewable energy and carbon removal have emerged as two important themes at Climate Week NYC 2026, as companies and policymakers look for ways to turn climate targets into real projects. The event, running from September 20 to 27, is highlighting a growing problem: renewable energy is expanding quickly, but in many markets companies still cannot find enough clean power to meet their targets.

At the same time, US states and local governments are exploring new ways to support carbon dioxide removal (CDR) as federal support becomes less certain.  The two issues are closely linked. Companies need more clean electricity as power demand rises, while CDR could help address emissions that remain after direct cuts.

Renewable Energy Is Growing, But Supply Is Still Tight

A new RE100 Annual Disclosure Report released ahead of Climate Week found that limited renewable supply and cost are the biggest barriers for companies trying to reach 100% renewable electricity. Lack of procurement options and regulatory barriers are the next biggest challenges.

The report covers 408 RE100 members, providing one of the largest datasets on corporate renewable energy procurement.

renewable energy RE claim recognition
Source: Climate Group

Globally, RE100 companies now source 59% of their electricity from renewable energy, up from 53% in the previous report. Importantly, 65% of that renewable electricity comes from facilities built within the past 15 years, showing that corporate buyers are helping support newer renewable capacity.

But progress varies widely by market. In South Korea, renewables account for only 12% of RE100 members’ electricity use, and just 5% of members have reached 100%. In Taiwan, renewables supply 6% of members’ electricity, while in Singapore the figure is also 6%, up only one percentage point from the previous year.

Japan improved from 36% to 40%, while South Africa jumped from 54% to 84% and Mexico from 38% to 52%. China and India each have 28% of RE100 members using 100% renewable electricity. This shows some companies are finding ways to overcome supply barriers, even in tough markets.

RE Regional purchasing type mix
Source: Climate Group

Renewables Hit a Record — But the 2030 Gap Remains

Corporate demand is rising as the global renewable industry expands at record speed.

The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) noted that the world added a record 692 gigawatts (GW) of renewable power in 2025. This raised the total installed renewable capacity to 5,149 GW.

Renewables made up 85.6% of all new power capacity added during the year. Solar accounted for about 510 GW of the 2025 increase, while wind added nearly 159 GW. Despite this growth, the pace is still below what is needed to meet the global goal of tripling renewable power capacity by 2030.

António Guterres, United Nations Secretary-General, said:

“Renewable energy records are being smashed year after year as the clean energy revolution accelerates. But we must go further and faster to clear the bottlenecks that delay the transition, drive investment to developing countries, and break our addiction to volatile fossil fuels once and for all.”

IRENA estimates that renewable capacity must reach about 11.2 terawatts (TW) by 2030. That requires average additions of around 1,122 GW every year through 2030 and annual growth of about 16.6%.

  • If the 2024 growth rate were maintained, the world would reach only about 10.3 TW, leaving a shortfall of roughly 0.9 TW.
IRENA renewable capacity 2030
Source: IRENA

The IEA also expects strong renewable growth but says current policies are not yet enough to fully deliver the global tripling target. Its main forecast puts renewable capacity at about 9,530 GW in 2030, while an accelerated policy scenario reaches more than 10,400 GW.

The gap is not simply about building more solar and wind farms. Grid connections, transmission, storage, permitting, and access to renewable power contracts are also becoming major constraints.

US States Step In as Carbon Removal Needs Grow

Carbon removal was another major issue during Climate Week. At a panel on September 21 at Columbia Law School’s Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, experts looked at how US states can back CDR since federal action is uncertain.

The panel, titled “Mind the Gap: How States Can Advance Carbon Dioxide Removal Despite Federal Backsliding,” brought together experts from the Sabin Center, American University, Rocky Mountain Institute, and California Ocean Science Trust.

The discussion focused on how states can use policy and legal tools to help move CDR from research into larger commercial projects.

The need is significant. The 2026 State of Carbon Dioxide Removal report estimates current CDR at about 2.2 billion tonnes of CO2 per year. That amount needs to increase substantially in climate pathways consistent with the Paris Agreement.

The report projects a gap of 1.2 billion tonnes per year by 2035. It estimates 5.2 billion tonnes by 2050. This gap is between current country pledges and the CDR levels in high-ambition Paris-compatible scenarios.

The CDR gap is growing
Source: CMCC Institutes

That does not mean every tonne will need to come from engineered technologies. Nature-based CDR, such as afforestation and soil carbon, remains important, while direct air capture, mineralisation, biochar and ocean-based approaches are also developing.

States Are Already Testing Market Tools

Several states are already creating policies that could support CDR development.

  • California runs the Carbon Removal Innovation Support Program, which provides financial incentives for direct-air-capture projects. In 2026, the California Energy Commission opened a solicitation for pre-commercial DAC demonstrations and community engagement. California’s energy research and development programs invest over $200 million each year to create new energy technologies.
  • Washington State has taken a different approach through its Climate Commitment Act and Cap-and-Invest Program. State rules accept CDR in the carbon market. They let carbon management projects create offset credits. Washington requires that captured CO2 be stored in permanent sequestration pathways. This keeps it out of the atmosphere for a minimum of 1,000 years.
  • Massachusetts is building its policy base through research. The state-supported Carbon Dioxide Removal Study looks at costs, potential scale, long-term storage, environmental effects, and policy options for CDR. This includes both state and nearby federal waters.

These approaches show that state governments do not need to use one policy model. They can support CDR through grants, market rules, research, standards, and project development.

CDR Needs Demand as Well as Technology

Moving CDR from small projects to a large industry requires more than scientific progress. Developers need buyers willing to sign long-term contracts. Investors need confidence that projects will have future revenue. Governments need rules for monitoring, reporting, permanence, and community impacts.

This is a key issue for the CDR market because many projects are still expensive and operate at small scales.

The US federal government previously helped create demand through research funding and carbon removal programmes. But states are increasingly being discussed as another source of support.

The Carbon Dioxide Removal Leadership Act, reintroduced in Congress in July 2026, suggests a federal purchasing program. This program aims to boost demand significantly and reliably. Carbon180 says public procurement could help the industry raise capital, expand production, and lower costs.

State action could complement such federal efforts where they remain available.

Climate Week Puts Delivery Back at the Center of Climate Goals

The discussions at Climate Week point to a common challenge across renewable energy and carbon removal: technology alone does not create a market.

Renewable power is already expanding rapidly, with 692 GW added globally in 2025. Yet, companies in markets such as South Korea, Singapore, and Japan still report limited access to clean electricity.

CDR faces an even earlier-stage market. Current removals are in the billions of tonnes. However, the 2026 State of CDR report shows we will need much more capacity to align with Paris pathways.

For renewable energy, the priority is building generation alongside grids, storage, and procurement systems. For CDR, the priority is creating the finance, demand, and rules needed to move promising technologies into commercial use.

The Climate Week discussions show how states and companies can help fill those gaps. For the clean energy market, the message is that record renewable growth still needs faster deployment and better access to supply. For carbon removal, the message is similar: scientific progress needs policy and market systems that can turn small projects into a scalable industry.

Together, the two trends highlight a broader shift in climate finance. The next phase of the energy transition will depend not only on setting targets, but on building the infrastructure, markets and investment systems needed to deliver them.

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Paraguay and Taiwan Target 5 Million Carbon Credits in New Article 6 Deal

Paraguay and Taiwan Target 5 Million Carbon Credits in New Article 6 Deal

Paraguay and Taiwan are negotiating an agreement that could create a minimum market of 5 million carbon credits for climate projects in Paraguay. The two countries are working on an international transfer agreement that they expect to complete this year, according to Paraguay’s Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development (MADES) official, Victor Gonzalez. The first phase would target demand from Asian companies.

The 5 million-credit figure is a negotiated floor, not a confirmed purchase order. Projects would still need to be developed, approved, verified, and authorized before credits could be transferred.

The talks matter because Paraguay is developing its carbon market. At the same time, Asian companies seek more international carbon credits under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.

Paraguay Builds Its Article 6 Carbon Market

The talks build on a Memorandum of Understanding signed in October 2025 between Paraguay and Taiwan to explore carbon market cooperation. The proposed Implementation Agreement would set rules for projects that cut emissions in Paraguay. It would also transfer the resulting mitigation outcomes to Taiwan.

Paraguay has also been building its domestic carbon market system. Law No. 7190/2023 established a legal framework for carbon markets and created the National Carbon Credit Registry. MADES is responsible for regulating and developing the sector.

The government is now working with the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) on a national carbon market strategy. In September 2026, MADES hosted a second national consultation on the strategy. About 80 representatives from government, finance, business, civil society, and international organizations attended.

The goal is to create clearer rules for projects, improve transparency, and build Paraguay’s ability to take part in international carbon markets.

Five Million Credits Would Create a Large Pipeline

The proposed 5 million credit floor would give the Paraguay-Taiwan partnership significant potential scale. However, these credits do not exist yet.

Projects must first be identified and developed. They need to measure their emissions reductions. Then, they must pass validation and verification. Finally, they should get the necessary government approvals.

Only authorized mitigation outcomes can be transferred under the Article 6 framework. This is important because Paraguay is still strengthening the systems needed to support a larger international carbon market.

MADES said its national strategy will focus on stricter rules, transparency, and systems for monitoring, reporting, and verification. Recent government work with Taiwanese officials has also focused on sharing knowledge about Paraguay’s carbon market rules and institutions.

The 5 million-ton floor should thus be viewed as a potential future supply target, rather than credits already available to buyers.

Taiwan’s Carbon Fee Creates New Credit Demand

Taiwan has a clear reason to secure international carbon credits. The country introduced its carbon fee system in 2025. The standard carbon fee is NT$300 per tonne of CO2e. However, companies that meet approved emissions reduction targets can get lower rates of NT$50 or NT$100 per tonne.

The fee applies to large electricity and manufacturing facilities with annual emissions of at least 25,000 tonnes of CO2e.

Taiwan allows eligible companies to use approved international carbon credits. They can cover up to 5% of their chargeable emissions, following the country’s rules. This creates potential demand for credits generated in Paraguay.

However, not every carbon credit will qualify. Projects must meet Taiwan’s requirements as well as Paraguay’s rules for international transfers. That could favor projects with strong measurement systems, clear carbon ownership, and credible verification.

Article 6 Rules Prevent Double Counting

The proposed deal would operate through Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement. It allows countries to transfer emissions reductions across borders. These transferred outcomes are known as Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes, or ITMOs.

Carbon Credit generation article 6
Source: UNFCCC

A major safeguard is the corresponding adjustment. Suppose a project in Paraguay creates an authorized emissions reduction and transfers it to a Taiwanese company.

Paraguay must adjust its national emissions accounting so it does not also count that same reduction toward its own climate target. This prevents the same climate benefit from being counted twice.

That makes Article 6 transactions different from many voluntary carbon credit purchases. Voluntary credits do not automatically receive a corresponding adjustment or government authorization.

Paraguay already has experience with this system. It signed an Article 6 Implementation Agreement with Singapore in May 2025. This agreement sets up procedures for project approval, ITMO transfers, and necessary adjustments.

A Taiwan agreement would add another international route for Paraguayan projects.

Forestry and Land Projects Could Lead

Forestry is likely to be an important part of Paraguay’s future carbon market. The country has large areas suitable for forest conservation, restoration, and plantation projects. Taiwan has also expressed interest in working with Paraguayan companies on forestry-related carbon projects.

Paraguay’s reforestation sector has expanded quickly. IMF data show that reforested land reached about 339,866 hectares in 2024, up 66% from 2022. Paraguay’s forestry institute estimates that over 5 million hectares have a high or very high potential for plantation forestry.

Not all this land will become carbon projects. Still, the figures show the scale of Paraguay’s potential forestry investment market.

The country’s opportunities also extend beyond forests. Article 6 projects could cover renewable energy, agriculture, green transport, and other emissions-reduction activities.

That wider project base could help Paraguay meet future demand if Asian buyers seek large and diverse supplies of authorized credits.

Paraguay Taiwan carbon credits

The Deal Could Open a Bigger Asian Market

The proposed Paraguay-Taiwan agreement comes as Article 6 markets are expanding across Asia and Latin America.

Singapore has already signed Article 6 agreements with countries including Paraguay, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Laos. Japan and other governments are also developing bilateral carbon market partnerships.

These agreements create links between countries with a demand for international carbon credits and countries with larger opportunities to reduce or remove emissions.

For Paraguay, that could turn forests, agricultural land, and renewable energy resources into sources of climate finance. For Taiwan, it could create another supply of international credits for companies facing domestic carbon costs.

Yet, the 5 million-credit floor is not the final measure of success. The real test is if Paraguay can create projects that follow Article 6 rules. They need to get government approval and show verified emissions reductions.

Paraguay is now building the market infrastructure to support that growth. The government is developing its national carbon market strategy, improving technical capacity, and working with international partners.

If the agreement is completed as planned, it could give Paraguayan project developers a clearer path to Asian buyers.

For Taiwan, it could provide a new source of international mitigation outcomes as its carbon fee system develops. For the wider carbon market, the talks show how Article 6 is moving from international rules toward real commercial demand.

The 5 million-credit target is therefore only the starting point. The bigger opportunity is building a reliable market for verified, authorized, and internationally transferable carbon reductions from Paraguay.

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U.S. Solar in 2026: $12.2B Investment by Year-End, 75.3 GW Module Capacity and Rising Solar Prices

The U.S. solar industry is entering a new phase. Solar installations continue to expand, but the market is also undergoing a major shift in where panels and components are manufactured.

After years of relying heavily on overseas supply chains, the U.S. has attracted billions of dollars into domestic solar factories. New manufacturing capacity is emerging across the country, while developers continue to build large amounts of solar power despite changing tax incentives, trade rules, and permitting challenges.

New research shows just how large that manufacturing push has become.

Cumulative U.S. solar photovoltaic manufacturing capital expenditure is expected to reach $12.2 billion by the end of 2026 since the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) was introduced in 2022, according to analysis from Terawatt PV Research reported by pv magazine. That figure represents more than half of all U.S. solar manufacturing investment since 2001.

At the same time, the latest US Solar Market Insight Q3 2026 report from Wood Mackenzie and the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) shows that the domestic solar market continues to operate at a substantial scale, with a large pipeline supporting demand for locally manufactured equipment.

U.S. Solar Manufacturing Investment Surges

The scale of recent investment stands out against the industry’s earlier history.

According to Terawatt PV Research, U.S. solar manufacturing capex exceeded $2.5 billion annually from 2023 onward. Spending reached a record $4.14 billion in 2024, with more than 60% coming from First Solar and Qcells.

solar investment US
Source: Terawatt PV Research, PV Magazine

First Solar’s spending included new manufacturing facilities in Alabama and Louisiana, while Qcells expanded its vertically integrated manufacturing operations in Georgia.

From Factory Investment to Actual Solar Production

The investment is also changing the structure of the domestic supply chain. The research firm tracks spending across buildings and infrastructure, new production equipment, and maintenance or upgrades.

  • Buildings and infrastructure accounted for roughly 60% of U.S. solar manufacturing capex between 2023 and 2026
  • It highlights how much capital has gone into establishing physical production facilities rather than simply upgrading existing lines.

This distinction is important because manufacturing announcements do not automatically translate into production.

A factory can have several gigawatts of announced capacity while still operating well below that level during its initial ramp-up. Terawatt’s analysis therefore looks at effective capacity, actual production, and capacity-conversion rates alongside capital spending.

The research found that conversion rates can range from just 15%-20% during early ramp-up to 70%-80% at some established manufacturing facilities.

U.S. Solar Manufacturing Buildout Tops 75 GW as Cell Capacity Surges

According to recent SEIA and Wood Mackenzie data, U.S. operational module manufacturing capacity reached 75.3 GW, with another 14.4 GW under construction. Domestic solar cell manufacturing is also expanding, with 10.6 GW of operational capacity and 19.1 GW under construction.

That upstream growth could gradually reduce one of the biggest weaknesses in the domestic solar supply chain: the gap between module assembly and production of cells and other components.

Texas Emerges as a Solar Manufacturing Hub

The new manufacturing investment is also creating regional clusters.

Texas has emerged as the leading U.S. state for solar module production in 2026, according to Terawatt PV Research. Companies including Canadian Solar, Sirius/Elin, Imperial Star, SEG Solar, T1 Energy, TOYO/Abalance, and Waaree Energies are contributing to the state’s growing manufacturing base.

The Southeast has become another important manufacturing region, particularly across Louisiana, Florida, the Carolinas, Georgia, and Alabama.

This geographic shift could become increasingly important for developers and suppliers as the U.S. solar industry places greater emphasis on domestic sourcing and supply-chain security.

The expansion also extends beyond modules.

Solar Demand Keeps the Factories Busy

Manufacturing investment would have less value without strong domestic demand.

  • The Wood Mackenzie and SEIA Q3 2026 outlook shows that the U.S. installed 11.4 GWdc of solar capacity in Q2 2026, a 45% increase from the same quarter in 2025 and a 43% increase from Q1.
  • Utility-scale projects accounted for nearly 10 GWdc, up 61% year over year.

Developers accelerated construction partly because of deadlines associated with federal clean-energy tax credits.

Wood Mackenzie estimates that more than 200 GWdc of utility-scale solar projects sit within the safe-harbored pipeline, providing significant near-term demand visibility.

The residential market presents a different picture. Wood Mackenzie expects U.S. residential solar installations to decline 23% in 2026 following the expiration of the federal residential 25D tax credit.

Utility-scale solar therefore remains an important source of demand as the industry moves through the policy transition.

EIA Data: U.S. Solar Capacity in 2026

EIA’s latest short term energy outlook revealed U.S. solar capacity to reach 181 GW and provide 8% of U.S. electricity generation in 2026

Its latest capacity data also shows how quickly new solar projects are being added. Developers plan to bring 43.4 GW of new utility-scale solar capacity online in 2026, a 60% increase from the 27.2 GW added in 2025, if all planned projects are completed.

  • Texas accounts for about 40% of the planned 2026 utility-scale solar additions.

The growth comes as U.S. electricity demand also rises. EIA expects electricity sales to reach 4,135 billion kWh in 2026, nearly 2% above 2025, with data centers and manufacturing contributing to higher commercial and industrial demand.

eia solar energy US

Can the Market Nearly Double by 2031?

Despite the policy and trade changes, Wood Mackenzie expects the broader U.S. solar market to maintain a substantial buildout.

  • The research firm forecasts annual U.S. solar installations to average around 44 GWdc through 2031, with cumulative solar capacity exceeding 545 GWdc by 2031.
  • The longer-term trajectory is even higher, projecting cumulative U.S. solar deployment to reach 769 GW by 2036.

However, the path will not be straightforward.

Permitting delays, interconnection constraints, changing trade policies, and the transition away from existing federal tax incentives could affect the pace of future installations. Wood Mackenzie estimates that permitting delays currently affect about 30% of the early-stage utility-scale pipeline.

Trade policy is also reshaping the economics of domestic manufacturing. New tariffs and minimum import prices are increasing pressure on the supply chain while potentially improving the economics of fully integrated U.S. production.

Solar Prices Face Pressure as U.S. Trade Rules Change

Woodmac predicts that U.S. solar prices could rise as new trade rules increase the cost of imported equipment. The Wood Mackenzie and SEIA Q3 2026 report says tariffs and minimum import prices are changing the cost of solar modules and key components.

  • The measures include a 15% tariff, along with minimum prices of $0.38/W for modules, $0.22/W for cells, $100/kg for wafers, and $21/kg for polysilicon.

Higher import costs could make some solar projects more expensive, while also making U.S.-made equipment more competitive. The report suggests these changes could support domestic manufacturing, but developers may still face higher equipment costs in the near term.

A New Phase for U.S. Solar Manufacturing

The $12.2 billion investment shows that U.S. solar manufacturing has moved beyond factory announcements. Capital is now going into buildings, equipment, and production capacity.

The next test is how quickly these factories can ramp up and compete as costs, technology, and trade rules change.

For investors, manufacturers, and developers, the focus is shifting from announced capacity to operating factories, actual output, and cost competitiveness. The U.S. solar manufacturing story is increasingly about production and capital already moving through the supply chain.

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