Tesla is under renewed scrutiny as multiple forces threaten its financial model. President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) risks erasing earnings from carbon credit sales. Also, Elon Musk’s recent political endorsement rattles investors, and Canada has frozen $40 million in aid over environmental concerns tied to Tesla’s projects.

Together, these developments supersede typical market volatility and signal a potential turning point. Let’s examine each of these instances and consider their impact on Tesla.

OBBB Bill Could Erase Billions in Carbon Credit Profits

In 2024, Tesla generated a record $2.76 billion by selling regulatory credits (carbon credits), which is nearly 39% of its net income ($7.09 billion) that year. These credits allowed other automakers—unable to meet emissions standards—to avoid penalties by purchasing Tesla’s excess credits. Over time, Tesla has earned more than $10 billion from credits since 2017.

However, the OBBB threatens to overturn this revenue stream. The bill removes clean energy and EV tax credits. This includes credits linked to emissions performance. It also ends federal penalties for vehicles that do not comply.

• With this policy shift, analysts warn Tesla could lose as much as 80–90% of its U.S. carbon credit income, which could result in a loss of more than $2 billion in annual revenue.

RELATED: Tesla’s Carbon Credits Crash in Q1 2025: Earnings Drop and EV Sales Fall

Tesla aims to close this gap by boosting vehicle production and cutting costs. However, the electric vehicle (EV) industry faces challenges. Global EV sales hit 17 million units in 2024, and they could exceed 20 million in 2025. However, growth might slow down due to changes in policy. 

The global EV market is now valued at $1.33 trillion. It is expected to grow to $6.5 trillion by 2030, showing a 32.5% annual growth rate. However, some analysts predict a more conservative growth rate of 14.5%, estimating it will reach around $1.66 trillion by 2030.

Investor Concern Mounts After Musk’s Political Endorsement

Tesla’s stock fell sharply in early July following Elon Musk’s public endorsement of a conservative politician. While credit sales had buoyed Tesla’s earnings, market analysts say that “more backlash could affect demand among politically sensitive consumers”.

Market experts also warned that this move could threaten TSLA’s value. Dan Ives, global head of technology research at Wedbush Securities, noted:

“Very simply Musk diving deeper into politics and now trying to take on the Beltway establishment is exactly the opposite direction that Tesla investors/shareholders want him to take during this crucial period for the Tesla story.”

The stock dropped by ~15% since early 2025, partly due to OBBB concerns and Musk’s activism. Investors are now recalculating Tesla’s value without carbon credit income: P/E ratios may fall significantly.

Why Canada Hit Pause on $40M in Tesla Aid

This decision further comes from concerns about not consulting Indigenous groups and potential environmental risks. Canadian officials have tied funding release to Tesla’s compliance with strict environmental standards and local partnership agreements.

This move is more than financial; it signals stronger scrutiny of Tesla’s global operations. As Tesla plans new battery or vehicle manufacturing in Canada, this aid freeze raises potential execution risks and reputational exposure.

Global EV Landscape and Tesla’s Expanding Competition

Tesla, once the undisputed leader, is facing growing competition. China continues to dominate, accounting for two-thirds of EV sales and holding nearly 60% of global EV production.

Meanwhile, BYD overtook Tesla in global EV market share (16% vs. 14%). The Chinese carmaker continues to gain ground in international markets, including Europe and Southeast Asia.

Tesla’s competitive edge is being challenged not only by Chinese automakers but also by legacy carmakers. These include Volkswagen, Hyundai, and GM, which are accelerating their EV rollouts.

Hyundai-Kia, for example, now holds nearly 7% global EV share, and Volkswagen has committed to launching 30+ new EV models by 2030. Startups like Rivian and Lucid are also carving out niche segments.

Despite positive long-term trends, the U.S. EV market is slowing. The International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its forecast for U.S. EV market share to 41% by 2030. This is a drop from nearly 50%. They point to fading subsidies and rising EV prices as reasons for this change.

BloombergNEF agreed, saying that policy uncertainties might slow EV adoption. This could affect over $150 billion in planned battery investments.

Can Tesla Weather the Storm?

Given the various challenges Tesla is facing, can it surpass all these and regain investors’ trust once again? Here are the top concerns to watch out for in the EV leader’s future.

1. Will vehicle sales make up for lost credit revenue?

Tesla needs to significantly boost sales. However, its 2024 deliveries — 1.78 million EVs — marked the first decline year-over-year. Its path forward relies on a balanced mix of new models (Cybercab, affordable versions) and global rollout, but competition and policy delays remain risks.

2. Does Musk’s political play threaten brand appeal?

CEO visibility impacts Tesla’s brand. With a growing political rift among its consumer base and investors, Tesla may lose market traction unless it separates its business strategy from divisive rhetoric.

3. Will Canada’s compliance push stall expansion?

The Canadian aid freeze sets a precedent. Grant applications, potential program abuse, environmental oversight, and community engagement would be crucial to Tesla’s growth plans. 

4. Can diversification maintain growth?

Tesla’s energy and AI segments suggest diversification. Its Powerwall and Megapack storage deployments reached 16.7 GWh in 2024, and its Supercharger network now exceeds 65,000 stalls. Expanding charging infrastructure, AI vehicle updates, and energy offerings could partially offset credit and auto earnings gaps.

• READ MORE: Tesla’s (TSLA stock) $557M Shanghai Megapack Project: Powering China’s Clean Energy Future

Tesla faces a mix of policy, political, and operational pressures. These challenges threaten its profits from carbon credits. While the company has built resilience through innovation in energy, AI, and scale, reversing or adapting to policy reversals will be critical.

Success depends on Tesla’s ability to grow in volume, cut costs, and expand globally. In the meantime, the OBBB, Musk’s spotlight, and Canada’s freeze combine to make this a critical moment for the EV pioneer’s future.

• FURTHER READING: Tesla’s U.S. Robotaxi Launch: A New Catalyst for TSLA Stock Growth?

The post Why Tesla (TSLA) Stock Fell: Carbon Credit Crackdown, Musk’s Politics, and Canada’s Frozen Funds appeared first on Carbon Credits.

ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), one of the world’s largest oil and gas producers, is once again in the public eye. Last week brought big news for the oil major. There was a new gas find offshore in the Mediterranean. Moreover, a key legal ruling was issued regarding old refinery pollution in Texas. Adding to the headlines, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has also proposed key carbon storage permits for the company’s growing low-carbon ventures.

These events show how ExxonMobil balances new energy projects with scrutiny over its environmental record. The gas company is feeling pressure from climate change demands. Its actions reveal both the opportunities and the challenges it faces in the evolving energy landscape.

Cyprus Gas Discovery Strengthens Global Portfolio

The first big development came from the Eastern Mediterranean. On July 7, ExxonMobil and QatarEnergy announced they had found a large natural gas reservoir off the coast of Cyprus. The find, located at the Pegasus-1 well in Block 10, revealed more than 350 meters of gas-bearing rock at a depth of about 1.9 kilometers.

This is the second major find for ExxonMobil in Cypriot waters, following the Glaucus-1 discovery in 2019. These discoveries are big wins for Europe. The region wants to find new natural gas sources and lessen its reliance on Russian energy.

The Eastern Mediterranean is becoming a key energy hub. Pegasus-1 adds important reserves to ExxonMobil’s global gas portfolio. It could help boost liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. This would supply cleaner fuels in areas trying to move away from coal.

Pollution Comes at a Price: Baytown Fine Stands After Supreme Court Snub

The same day ExxonMobil celebrated its discovery off Cyprus, it also faced a legal setback at home. The U.S. Supreme Court chose not to review a lower court’s decision. That ruling upheld a $14.25 million civil penalty for long-term air pollution violations at the Baytown refinery complex in Texas.

Environment Texas and the Sierra Club filed a case against the company. They claimed it broke the Clean Air Act by releasing harmful pollutants like nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide for years. These emissions can contribute to respiratory issues, smog, and other environmental harm.

This decision ends a decade-long legal battle and marks one of the largest citizen-led environmental fines under the said law. It also highlights growing public and legal accountability for emissions from major energy facilities.

EPA Backs Exxon’s Texas Carbon Storage Ambitions

Amid legal challenges, ExxonMobil continues to invest in low-carbon technology. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has proposed three Class VI carbon storage permits for ExxonMobil’s Low Carbon Solutions Onshore Storage LLC. This move could shape the company’s future in climate solutions in Jefferson County, Texas.

These permits back ExxonMobil’s “Rose” project seen in the map above. It’s a carbon capture and storage (CCS) site. The project aims to inject up to 5 million metric tons of CO₂ each year into deep underground rock formations.

The EPA’s proposal opens a 30-day public comment period, with a virtual hearing scheduled for July 31, 2025. EPA officials say early reviews show the project won’t risk underground drinking water. If approved, this would allow ExxonMobil to store CO₂ emissions from clean hydrogen and ammonia plants.

This CCS effort is part of a larger federal shift to expand carbon storage across the country. The EPA is also working to give permitting power to the Texas Railroad Commission. This puts Texas alongside states like Louisiana, North Dakota, and Wyoming. These states aim to speed up approvals for carbon storage projects.

CCS is vital for hard-to-decarbonize sectors like steel and cement. According to a DNV report, global CCS investment could reach $80 billion by 2030, enabling the capture of 270 million tons of CO₂ per year—a major tool in the climate transition.

• SEE MORE: Global Investment in CCS Surges Toward $80 Billion as Climate Goals Drive Demand

Global CCS capacity is set to grow from 50 to over 550 million tonnes of CO₂ annually by 2030, says DNV. That’s equal to 6% of current energy-related emissions. North America and Europe will lead, backed by climate policies and funding. The U.S. offers $85/ton tax credits, while the EU supports CCS via its Innovation Fund and North Sea projects.

By investing in CCS, ExxonMobil aims to position itself as a leader in technologies that can reduce industrial emissions—key to meeting its long-term climate targets.

ExxonMobil’s Climate Strategy: Progress and Pressure

These three developments—exploration success, legal accountability, and carbon storage expansion—reflect ExxonMobil’s evolving role in the energy transition.

The oil major is advancing its climate strategy. The goal is to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions from its operated assets (Scope 1 and 2) by 2050. The company has laid out interim goals to cut upstream emissions intensity by 40–50%, methane by 70–80%, and flaring by 60–70% by 2030, based on 2016 levels.

In the Permian Basin, ExxonMobil targets net-zero emissions from its unconventional operations by 2030. The company has installed more than 6,000 low-emission pneumatic devices. It has also eliminated routine flaring, added electric compressors, and started using wind-sourced electricity.

ExxonMobil’s Low Carbon Solutions division will invest more than $20 billion by 2027. This funding will support technologies such as carbon capture, clean hydrogen, and biofuels. This includes the $5 billion acquisition of Denbury Inc., adding to its CO₂ pipeline and storage network.

ExxonMobil has captured over 120 million metric tons of CO₂. Right now, it captures about 9 million tons each year. This makes the company a leader in industrial carbon capture worldwide. Projects like the Baytown low-carbon hydrogen facility aim to capture 7 million metric tons of CO₂ annually.

The company also plans to produce 1 billion cubic feet per day of hydrogen and 1 million metric tons of ammonia using CO₂ capture technologies. Globally, ExxonMobil is involved in CCS and hydrogen projects in Europe, the U.S., and the Middle East.

In summary, here’s the company’s climate targets:

• Cut Scope 1 and 2 emissions intensity from its oil and gas production by 40% to 50% by 2030 (vs. 2016 levels).
• Achieve net-zero emissions from its operated assets (Scope 1 and 2) by 2050.
• Invest $20 billion through 2027 in low-carbon projects globally.

Despite progress on Scope 1 and 2 goals, ExxonMobil has not set targets for Scope 3 emissions, which account for customer use of its products. This remains a point of pressure from environmental groups and ESG investors.

ExxonMobil focuses on exploration and production. But it is also creating a new strategy to tackle emissions. This shift helps meet rules and investor expectations.

Can ExxonMobil Stay on Track Toward Net Zero?

ExxonMobil had a week of mixed headlines. This shows the clash between old fossil fuel practices and the needs of a climate-aware future. The company is working to expand its  carbon capture efforts and find new gas sources.

This reveals its plans for two things: keeping energy supplies strong now and creating lower-carbon resources for the future.

With this, ExxonMobil’s future will likely hinge on three key factors: growth, environmental responsibility, and investor pressure. As regulations tighten and clean energy competition rises, finding the right balance will be crucial.

• INTERESTING READ: Big Oil’s Showdown: How Shell, Chevron & ExxonMobil Balance Big Profits with Net Zero?

The post ExxonMobil’s (XOM Stock) Wild Ride: Gas Discovery, $14M Pollution Fine, and Carbon Storage Push appeared first on Carbon Credits.

U.S.-based BitMine Immersion Technologies, Inc. (NYSE American: BMNR), is rapidly transforming the world of Bitcoin and digital asset mining. By harnessing immersion cooling technology and targeting carbon neutrality, the next-gen bitcoin miner is setting new standards for efficiency, sustainability, and operational scale in the crypto sector.

With a recent surge in stock price and a $250 million capital raise, the company is drawing attention from both institutional and retail investors seeking exposure to the future of green blockchain infrastructure.

First, let’s take a peek at its operations

Inside BitMine’s Bitcoin Operations

BitMine Immersion Technologies has built a multi-faceted Bitcoin mining business designed for performance and scale. It operates four active mining sites. Two of these are located in Texas, selected for their robust energy infrastructure and access to low-cost power. The other two are in Trinidad & Tobago, where the company benefits from long-term energy contracts and high energy efficiency.

This strategic geographic mix helps BitMine maintain a balance between reliability, energy savings, and consistent uptime. Its operations include:

• Immersion-cooled data centers fully owned by the company
• Partnerships with air-cooled mining facilities
• Active trading of Bitcoin mining hashrate
• Direct Bitcoin mining and hashrate management
• Offering Mining-as-a-Service (MaaS) solutions
• Consulting services for Bitcoin treasury management

Why Immersion Cooling Sets BitMine Apart?

BitMine’s mining success is because of its immersion cooling. It’s a next-generation method that replaces traditional air cooling. Instead of relying on fans and air conditioners, it submerges its mining rigs in a special dielectric liquid. This fluid absorbs heat more efficiently, keeping equipment cooler and operating at peak performance.

This advanced approach offers several benefits:

• Boosts Efficiency: Safely overclocks machines, increasing hashrate by 25–30%
• Reduces Noise: Eliminates fans, creating near-silent operations
• Lowers Costs: Cuts electricity usage by reducing the need for air cooling
• Extends Hardware Life: Protects rigs from dust and overheating
• Saves Space: Systems have a compact footprint and can be deployed in various environments
• Improves PUE: Achieves power usage effectiveness as low as 1.05, meaning nearly all the energy goes into mining rather than cooling

What is Hashrate and Why Does It Matter?

Hashrate measures how much computing power miners use to validate Bitcoin transactions and secure the blockchain. It’s a key indicator of network strength and miner confidence.

Here’s a breakdown:

• Unit of Measure: Hashrate is measured in hashes per second
• Security Marker: A higher hashrate makes the network harder to attack
• Reward System: Miners earn Bitcoin based on how much of the total network hashrate they contribute, usually via mining pools
• Tradable Asset: Hashrate can be bought and sold, either through direct contracts or financial derivatives, letting miners hedge risk or speculate on future performance

Currently, the global bitcoin network runs at over 865 exahashes per second (EH/s)—one of the highest levels in history.

This technology is especially relevant as AI, data centers, and crypto mining all demand more power and generate more heat. As air cooling reaches its limits, immersion cooling positions BitMine as a leader in next-generation infrastructure.

• READ MORE: Crypto Market Tops $3 Trillion Amid ‘Trump Bump’, Bitcoin Hits All-Time High at $93K 

BitMine Immersion Technologies: Sustainability and Low-Carbon Strategy

BitMine Immersion Technologies is also serious about protecting the environment. The company’s immersion cooling systems drastically cut energy consumption and reduce environmental impact. This shows they are investing capital in infrastructure upgrades aimed at cutting emissions and maximizing operational efficiency.

Research from the Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI) highlights how bitcoin mining increasingly relies on renewable energy, turning surplus energy into a valuable resource. Using excess power from renewable sources like wind and solar helps stabilize grids and reduce energy waste, proving that it can contribute to carbon reduction rather than exacerbating emissions.

Here’s how immersion cooling is energy efficient

Immersion cooling is widely recognized as a greener alternative to traditional air cooling. This technique involves submerging mining hardware in a non-conductive dielectric fluid that quickly absorbs and dissipates heat. Thereby offering several sustainability advantages.

• Lower Energy Use: Immersion systems eliminate the need for high-powered fans and large-scale air conditioning. This can reduce electricity consumption by up to 40%, shrinking overall energy costs and the company’s carbon footprint.
• Reduced Emissions: Improved energy efficiency leads to fewer carbon emissions. For instance, a 1 MW mining facility using immersion cooling can produce around 30% less CO₂ annually than an equivalent air-cooled operation.
• Longer Equipment Life: The consistent, lower temperatures reduce wear and tear on machines. This results in fewer hardware failures, less electronic waste, and fewer replacements, further cutting environmental impact.

BitMine Is Redefining Eco-Friendly Crypto Mining

BitMine Immersion Technologies is showing how high-performance mining can also be environmentally responsible. With an initial hosting capacity of 50 megawatts, the company is rapidly expanding across North America and the Caribbean, without losing sight of its commitment to sustainability.

Dual Revenue Model Powers Growth

It runs on a smart, dual-income model that supports both resilience and expansion. Key highlights of its portfolio are:

• Mines Bitcoin for its own portfolio (self-mining)
• Hosts mining equipment for other businesses
• Leases and manages mining hardware, which helps reduce upfront costs and speeds up scaling

This approach gives Bitmine steady revenue, lowers risk, and allows it to adjust quickly to shifts in the crypto market. By partnering with leading ASIC equipment providers and locking in service contracts, the company ensures consistent payouts and flexibility.

BMNR Stock Wins Big: Fuels Market Excitement

Investors have taken notice of BMNR stock’s momentum:

• Stock Rally: On July 1, 2025, BMNR shares jumped more than 50% in one day, with trading volume doubling. Over the past year, the stock has surged over 400%, reflecting growing interest in clean crypto mining and immersion cooling.
• Massive Funding Round: In June 2025, it raised $250 million to expand infrastructure, improve cybersecurity, and move closer to carbon neutrality.
• Pivot to Ethereum: After an $18 million public offering and a large Bitcoin purchase, the company announced plans to invest the full $250 million in Ethereum. It aims to become one of the largest publicly listed ETH holders.

Jonathan Bates, CEO of BitMine, said in the press release that,

“The private placement will accelerate BitMine’s treasury holdings shortly after its first treasury purchase on June 9, 2025. FalconX, Kraken, and Galaxy Digital plan to partner with the Company to grow a world-class Ethereum treasury strategy alongside existing custody partners, BitGo and Fidelity Digital.”

Financial Performance: Fast Growth, High Risk

BitMine has grown rapidly, outpacing much of the market:

• Revenue Surge: Over the past three years, revenue has climbed an average of 295%, compared to just 5.5% for the S&P 500. In its latest quarter, revenue jumped 70% year-over-year to $1.5 million.

However, it still presents a high-risk investment profile. The company is not yet profitable, with a net income margin of -77.8%, as it continues to prioritize rapid growth and infrastructure expansion over short-term earnings.

According to experts, its valuation is also on the higher side, trading at a price-to-sales ratio of 14.4, well above the S&P 500 average of 3.1. This indicates strong investor expectations for future growth. Additionally, BMNR stock remains highly volatile, experiencing sharp fluctuations in price in recent months.

What’s Next for BitMine? Scaling Up Green Mining

With new funding secured, BitMine is gearing up to expand its hosting capacity well beyond the current 50 megawatts. The company also plans to deploy advanced cybersecurity systems and smart management tools.

It is actively working on launching additional facilities across North America and the Caribbean, adding hundreds of megawatts in capacity. At the same time, the company is focused on setting new industry benchmarks through its sustainable immersion-cooled mining systems.

These initiatives emerge at a time when ESG standards are gaining increasing importance to investors and regulators alike. As the push for cleaner blockchain practices continues, its unique model may well shape the future of green digital asset mining.

Overall, Bitmine Immersion Technologies stands at the intersection of clean energy, financial innovation, and cutting-edge tech. Its use of immersion cooling makes crypto mining more efficient and environmentally friendly. With a bold carbon neutrality target, fast-growing revenues, and a flexible business model, Bitmine is well-positioned to lead the charge in sustainable blockchain mining.

• READ MORE: Circle Internet Group (CRCL Stock): Boosting Carbon Credit Trust with Blockchain & Digital Climate Solutions

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The recently passed President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBB) by Congressional Republicans is raising alarms among energy and climate experts. 

According to a report from Princeton University’s REPEAT Project, the sweeping repeal of Biden-era climate legislation could derail the United States’ path to net zero. The analysis finds that the bill, combined with Trump’s planned executive actions, could lead to more than 7 billion tons of additional greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

This marks a sharp reversal from current policy momentum under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), which helped push the U.S. toward cleaner energy, lower emissions, and affordable electricity.

What the “One Big Beautiful Bill” Does

The OBBB repeals nearly all clean energy tax credits passed under the IRA. These credits supported wind, solar, battery storage, clean fuels, and electric vehicles. The bill also rescinds billions in unspent funding for clean energy projects from both the IRA and IIJA.

Key actions under OBBB include:

• Canceling tax incentives for clean electricity, electric vehicles, and green manufacturing.
• Freezing the use of unspent federal funds for climate programs.
• Repealing EPA emissions standards and DOE efficiency rules.
• Rolling back vehicle fuel economy requirements.

In short, OBBB represents a full-scale retreat from the policies that formed the foundation of U.S. climate action over the last few years, per the report findings.

U.S. Emissions Rise Under the Bill

One of the most serious consequences of the OBBB is its impact on U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. According to the REPEAT Project analysis, the rollback of climate policies under the bill will significantly slow down the country’s progress in reducing emissions.

Under current policies—especially the IRA—the U.S. was on track to reduce its emissions to about 38% below 2005 levels by 2030. This was already falling short of the country’s official Paris Agreement target of a 50–52% reduction by 2030. But under the OBBB, this gap widens even further.

The report estimates that emissions in 2030 will be about 190 million metric tons higher than they would be if current climate policies remained in place. To put that into perspective, that’s roughly equal to the annual emissions of the entire state of New York or the combined emissions of over 40 million gasoline-powered cars.

And the gap continues to grow, as the chart above from the report shows. By 2035, annual emissions could be 470 million metric tons higher under the OBBB pathway. This means more pollution from fossil fuels, more climate-related risks like extreme weather, and a greater burden on future efforts to catch up.

Even more alarming, the cumulative emissions added between now and 2050 could reach over 7 billion metric tons of CO₂. That’s more than the total emissions the entire U.S. economy produces in a single year today. These extra emissions would be very difficult—if not impossible—to offset in time to meet net-zero goals by mid-century.

The increase in GHG emissions comes from several sources as a consequence of the new law:

• Less clean electricity
• Slower EV adoption
• Weaker building and appliance standards
• Increased industrial emissions

All these factors combined mean that the U.S. will emit more carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases than it would have under current climate laws. That means the U.S. would miss its climate pledges under the Paris Agreement, including the nationally determined contribution (NDC) to cut emissions by at least 50–52% by 2030.

Not only that. There are also significant impacts on other areas and sectors involved as follows. 

Costs to Households and the Economy

According to the REPEAT analysis, the bill will increase energy costs for American households and businesses. By 2030, total U.S. energy spending will rise by $28 billion annually, and by 2035, that number could exceed $50 billion per year.

For households, that means higher monthly bills:

• An increase of $165 per year in 2030, growing to $280 per year in 2035.
• That’s roughly a 7.5% rise in 2030 and over 13% in 2035 compared to the current policy.

Higher fossil fuel use and slower renewable deployment will lead to more expensive energy systems in the long run.

Clean Energy Development Slows Sharply

The report finds that OBBB will cut cumulative clean energy investment by $500 billion between 2025 and 2035. Solar and wind additions will drop significantly:

• Nearly 29 gigawatts less solar and 43 gigawatts less wind by 2030.
• By 2035, clean energy generation will be 820 terawatt-hours lower—equal to the combined output of today’s entire nuclear or coal fleet.

The result: more fossil fuel reliance, slower energy system modernization, and fewer climate benefits.

• SEE MORE: Clean Energy Beats Fossil Fuel in Historic $3.3T Global Energy Investment in 2025, IEA Report

Battery storage and geothermal will see some growth, but not enough to compensate for the loss of wind and solar momentum. Fossil gas and gas with carbon capture may step in to fill part of the gap, but their emissions profile is still far from net zero.

A separate analysis by Rhodium Group shares similar concerns. It shows that the One Big Beautiful Bill may cut clean energy growth in the U.S. In particular, repealing key clean-energy tax credits could cut new clean power capacity by 57–72% by 2035. It would also put about $522 billion in planned clean energy investments at risk across the U.S.

The Rhodium report further predicts that wind and solar capacity could drop by more than 60% by 2030 compared to what the Inflation Reduction Act projected. Investment uncertainty and the rollback of tax incentives would slow new projects and weaken supply chains.

The report also warns that this decline could lead to more fossil fuel use. It might increase electricity costs and make it harder for the U.S. to compete in the global clean energy transition.

Electricity Demand Is Rising — But Clean Supply Shrinks

Another concern raised by the REPEAT Project is that electricity demand is expected to grow 25% from 2024 to 2035, driven largely by AI, data centers, and electric vehicles. This makes clean energy capacity even more urgent.

But under OBBB, clean electricity growth slows, while demand keeps rising. That means more coal and gas could be used to meet growing needs, pushing emissions even higher.

Notably, the report reveals that clean electricity generation will be much lower, like “losing a nuclear fleet’s worth of clean power”.

Will Carbon Credits Close the Gap?

The rollback also affects carbon markets. By removing incentives for clean energy and low-carbon technologies, the U.S. may rely more on carbon credits and offsets—if at all. However, experts warn this won’t be enough.

Without federal backing, carbon credit markets may shrink in scale and credibility. The U.S. would lack domestic reductions to balance out emissions, and there’s no guarantee that offsets from abroad would meet the needed quality or volume.

And worse, companies may abandon climate targets if federal policies signal that emissions cuts are no longer a priority.

What Happens Next? A Turning Point in U.S. Climate Policy

While the bill passed both chambers of Congress, legal challenges and regulatory battles are expected. Some state governments may double down on their own clean energy programs to fill the gap. However, state efforts alone likely won’t make up for the national rollback.

REPEAT’s modeling shows that even with favorable market trends, federal policy remains critical to accelerating the clean energy transition. The One Big Beautiful Bill represents a sharp reversal in the U.S. clean energy journey.

For now, the new law’s full impact depends on future elections, legal challenges, and how aggressively states and companies react. But the REPEAT findings leave no doubt: the policy shift under OBBB could be a major setback for U.S. climate leadership.

• READ MORE: Trump’s New Tariffs Wipe Out $2.5 Trillion: How Can It Stall America’s Clean Energy Future?

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